如果朝鲜入侵韩国，美国和韩国人会把他们赶回朝鲜吗？这需要多长时间？ [美国媒体]

If North Korea invaded South Korea could the U.S. and the South Koreans drive them back and how long would it take and if the Chinese sent 300,000 to 600,000 troops south as they did the first time what would probably happen next?

如果朝鲜入侵韩国，美国和韩国人会把他们赶回朝鲜吗？这需要多长时间？如果中国像第一次那样向韩国派遣30万到60万军队，下一步可能会发生什么？




Louis E. Walker, former Surgeon at U.S. Army (1989-2014)
Your premise is fatally flawed from the start. We live in a far different world than existed in the 1950’s. Having just completed WWII, the allied armies were in a steep drawdown mode, and what troops remained to carry out the occupation of Japan were no longer battle hardened troops. They were largely follow-on units with little to no combat experience and armed with weapons that were rapidly becoming outmoded. Do an internet search of Task Force Smith to see just what a debacle our initial response was once NoKo troops crossed the 38th parallel.

你的前提从一开始就存在致命的缺陷。我们生活在一个与二十世纪五十年代截然不同的世界。那时候，二战刚刚结束，盟军就突然撤退，留下来占领日本的不再是久经沙场的军队了。他们大多是后备部队，几乎没有作战经验，装备的武器迅速过时。在网上搜索史密斯特遣部队，看看一旦朝鲜部队越过三八线，我们最初的反应多么糟糕。

The DPRK was able to mass multiple divisions along the border with SoKo given the relatively unsophisticated surveillance technology available at the time coupled with the fact that the DMZ didn’t even exist yet—a two mile wide barrier now laced with multiple obstacles and millions of land mines and constantly monitored. Add the incredulity with which we considered even the possibility of an invasion, and NoKo was able to spring a complete surprise. That would be absolutely impossible today. The minute they began massing troops and armor along the border, we, SoKo and our SEATO allies would mount a massive response. Given the largely second rate quality of the DPRK and its adjuvant forces, they would likely be quickly interdicted and then ultimately slaughtered.

鉴于当时相对不成熟的监控技术以及非军事区（一个布满了各种障碍和数百万地雷的两英里宽的地带）尚不存在，朝鲜能够在“三八线”附近集结起大规模的作战单位。再加上我们根本没有考虑过朝鲜会入侵的可能性，朝鲜能够发动突然袭击。（这在今天是绝对不可能的）一旦他们开始在边境集结军队和装甲车，美国、韩国和东南亚条约组织会发起大规模反击。鉴于朝鲜及辅助部队的质量很大程度上处于二流水平，他们可能会被迅速拦截住朝鲜部队并最终屠杀他们。

Here’s something I posted earlier on the quality of NoKo’s forces:

这是我早些时候发表的有关朝鲜部队质量的文章：

“Basically, it’s a fairly decent WWII level force minus a few critical factors.

“基本上，这是一支相当不错的二战水平的部队，除了一些关键因素。

Their standing army is large, estimated to number about 1.2M troops, 600K in reserve and several million more paramilitary forces, i.e., the populace would be called upon as a contingency force. However, they’re poorly trained, inexperienced and lacking in logistical support. Fanatical, yes, competent, no.

他们的常规部队规模庞大，估计有120万士兵，60万预备役部队以及数百万准军事部队，在美国被称为应急部队。然而，他们训练不足，缺乏经验和后勤支持。狂热但能力不足。

Their air force is a joke—about 800 offensive aircraft but few are even third generation fighters and they still fly a disturbing number of Mig 17/19/21/23 fighters. Their pilots are poorly trained, fuel and replacement parts are scarce and they have no capability for all-weather flying. We would have air supremacy from day one.

他们的空军部队就是个笑话——800架攻击飞机，但很少是第三代战斗机，他们仍然驾驶着数量惊人的米格17/19/21/23战斗机。他们的飞行员缺乏训练，燃料和替换部件稀缺，没有全天候飞行能力。从第一天起，我们就拥有了制空权。

Their navy is almost entirely a littoral force, their submarine fleet, while the 10th largest in the world, is overwhelmingly old diesel-electric subs given to them by the old USSR and China and incapable of blue water missions. They have a few of new Shinpo class subs which have a blue water capability and an assumed underwater launch capability, but they’re technologically crude and more of a hazard to their crews than any opponent. Our Los Angeles class attack subs would have a turkey shoot.

他们的海军完全是一支近海部队，尽管朝鲜的潜艇部队在世界上排名第十，但绝大多数是前苏联和中国提供的老式柴电潜艇，不具备执行蓝水任务的能力。他们有一些新型基洛级潜艇，具备远海作战和水下发射能力，但是这些潜艇技术粗糙，对潜水艇官兵的威胁比敌人更危险，我们的洛杉矶级潜艇能够将他们彻底摧毁。

Their main battle tanks are of pre-Desert Storm quality and run heavily to T-62s and T-72s and their derivatives. They would have no chance against our air assets or the Abrams M1-A or later models.

他们的主战坦克是“沙漠风暴”行动前的质量和沉重的T-62S和T-72S及其后续产品。他们将没有机会反击我们的空中战力或艾布拉姆斯M1-A或更高型号。

Their main offensive threat against SoKo would be the estimated—ESTIMATED—5,000 artillery tubes in the Koksan Basin, some of which are 170mm and possibly 220mm tubes quite capable of reaching Seoul. They’ve been positioned to some extent on mobile platforms and in hardened bunkers/caves which would somewhat complicate targeting them, but the entire area is pre-targeted and it would only be a matter of days before the threat was neutralized. However, in those few days Seoul would take significant damage and casualties.

他们对韩国的主要进攻威胁是估计在朝鲜盆地有5000门火炮，其中一些口径为170mm，可能有220mm的火炮射程能够覆盖首尔。他们已经在一定程度上被安置在移动平台和坚固的掩体或洞穴中，这会使目标定位变得复杂，但整个区域都是预先定位的，而且在威胁被压制的前几天内。然而，在这几天里，首尔将遭受重大损失和人员伤亡。

Now for the wild card, and the reason NoKo has pursued their ballistic and ICBM programs so aggressively as well as nukes. They have a very credible short and intermediate range ballistic missile capability but the exact number of missiles is not clearly known. Their longest range ballistic missile currently in service is the No-Dong with a range of about 800 miles, certainly enough to reach all of SoKo and most of Japan, but they also have a number of systems under development including the Hwasong-14/-15 which are capable of reaching the N. American continent. Whether they can weaponize their nukes into warheads is highly questionable.

现在，为了掌握这张王牌，也为了这个原因，朝鲜积极推行弹道导弹和洲际弹道导弹计划以及核武器。他们拥有非常可靠的短程和中程弹道导弹能力，但具体的导弹数量还不清楚。他们目前服役的最长射程弹道导弹是射程约800英里的“玄武”导弹，当然足以攻击所有的韩国和日本大部分地区，但朝鲜也有一些正在开发中的系统，包括能够到达北美大陆的火星-14/-15导弹。他们能否将核弹武器缩小为核弹头是一个很大的问题。

The increasing obsolescence of their conventional forces is the reason they’ve pivoted so strongly toward their missile programs. Take that out of the equation and they’re more of a joke than a threat.”

他们的常规武器日益陈旧，这是他们如此强烈地转向导弹计划的原因。这存在许多漏洞，它们更像是一个笑话，而不是威胁。”

Currently, NoKo is estimated to have at most about two dozen nukes with no proved delivery system. Contrast that with our nuclear arsenal of some 6800 warheads and a very effective network of redundant delivery systems. Their few ICBM tests involved prototypes of the Hwasong missiles and there’s no evidence they have them in numbers or operational, nor that they can effectively weaponize them. Further, our THAAD systems in SoKo are a significant advance over the original Patriot technology.

目前，据估计，朝鲜最多拥有二十多枚核弹，运载系统还没有经过测试。相比之下，我们（美国）核武库中拥有6800枚核弹头和一个非常有效的运载系统网络。他们仅有的几次洲际弹道导弹试验涉及到火星导弹的原型，没有证据表明他们拥有这些导弹的数量和作战能力，也没有证据表明他们能有效地武器化这些导弹。此外，我们在韩国的萨德系统比原来的爱国者在技术上有了很大的进步。

Would NoKo be stupid enough to start a shooting war? Not a chance. The one outcome Kim and his cronies fear most is regime change. Any war would not only be over quickly, it would result in their removal from power and likely their deaths.

朝鲜会不会愚蠢到发动一场射击战？没有机会。金正恩和他的亲信们最担心的结果是政权更迭。任何战争不仅会很快结束，而且会导致他们失去权力，很可能导致他们丢了性命。

As for the Chinese, they, also, live in a far different world than they did in the ‘50’s. They now have a largely market driven economy, have far more invested in maintaining peace with the west in general and the U.S. in particular than they do NoKo, and realize a face-off with the west would likely go nuclear with massive damage to both sides. Their reluctance to offer more than token support to NoKo in the current dust-up and their tacit encouragement to Kim to negotiate on nuclear disarmament is testimony to that. Can you imagine anything similar happening during the Cold War era? There is simply no way they would support a NoKo attack on SoKo, nor would they risk MAD in a shooting war with the west.

至于中国人，他们也生活在一个与50年代截然不同的世界。他们现在有了一个很大程度上由市场驱动的经济，在维护与西方尤其与美国的和平上投入了比朝鲜多得多的资金，并且他们意识到与西方的对峙很可能会演变成互掷核武器，对双方都造成巨大损害。他们不愿意在目前的风波中向朝鲜提供象征性的支持，他们暗中鼓励金正日就核裁军问题进行谈判，这证明了上面的猜想。你能想象会发生什么与冷战时期类似的事情吗？他们根本不可能支持对朝鲜攻击韩国，也不可能冒着与西方发生战争的危险发疯。

Harry Zitzelberger, worked at U.S. Army
No military in the world wants to fuck with the ROK Army. They are not the ROK Army of 1950. For 70 years, they have been training and building and equipping one of the best fighting forces on the planet.

世界上没有任何军队想和韩国军队作战。他们已经不是1950年的韩国部队了。70年来，他们一直在训练，建立并装备起一只世界上战力最强的部队之一。

Since the end of hostilities in the Korean War, the United States has maintained a “trigger” force. It was a Corps for twenty years, then down to a Division for another thirty, now I think it is just a Brigade. It’s purpose is to guarantee to the ROK that IF the North Koreans attack again, the US is already in the fight. It is more a sign of our commitment to them than a sizable force to repel aggressions from the North.

自朝鲜战争结束以来，美国一直在韩国保持着一支“应急”部队。规模为一个兵团，驻扎了二十年，后来降级为一个师，又驻扎了30年。现在我想它只剩下一个旅的规模。其目的是向韩国保证如果朝鲜再次入侵美国已经参战。这更多的是我们向韩国作出的一个承诺，而不是击退来自北方的强大侵略力量。

If the North invaded, no matter that they would get their ass handed to them in a couple of weeks, some very bad things would happen.

如果朝鲜入侵，不管他们在几周内能获得什么战果，一些非常糟糕的事情会发生。

Seoul, one of the most densely populated cities on the planet is within range of a massive number, like many thousands, of aging, decrepit, Soviet-era artillery pieces. They could get off a few barrages before their locations were identified and air and counter battery fire obliterated them, but that would still kill many, many, many residents of Seoul. Massive loss of civilian life and the resulting confusion would not be a good thing.

首尔是世界上人口最密集的城市之一，处于大量前苏联老旧火炮的射程之内。在火炮的位置被确定之前，他们可以避开几次炮击，然后韩国的空中和反炮兵火力将会彻底消灭他们。，但是这样会导致许许多多的韩国民众丧生。大量平民的丧生和由此造成的混乱不是一件好事。

The North now has nukes. While the ROK Army, with minimal help from the US Brigade there, was beating the hell out of the invading force, some nut job in Pyongyang would eventually realize he was losing and start pushing the button for those. Again, massive loss of life, maybe a trigger incident that inspires Russia, China or the US to start flinging some nukes of their own. I don’t think there is any way this ends well.

如今朝鲜拥有了核武器。当韩国军队在美国军队的最低限度的帮助下将朝鲜部队打得死去活来的时候，平壤的一些疯子最终意识到自己正在失败，并按下发射核武器的按钮。巨大的生命损失再一次出现，也许是个触发事件并促使俄罗斯、中国和美国相继发射自己的核武器。我认为这不会有任何好的结果。

When the Chinese troops get there, I don’t really think it matters. The Korean peninsula is small, and the ROK Army has the capability to defend itself well there. Also, the Chinese troops are not anywhere near as high speed as the ROKs, and though their numbers might cause some difficulty, I still see the ROK Army coming out on top. Also, by this time, you will have US troops pouring in in large numbers that will generally make it a wash. Still, pulling in China and the US makes this mess expand, and that is not a good thing.

当中国军队到达那里时，我真的不认为有啥用。朝鲜半岛很小，韩国有能力做好自卫。而且，中国军队的速度远没有韩国军队快，虽然中国军队的数量会给韩国带来一些麻烦，我仍然认为韩国军队会占上风。到这个时候，你会看到美国军队大量涌入韩国，这通常会使其变成一场战争。然而，把中国和美国拉进来会进一步扩大混乱局面，这不是一件好事。

Once you have the ROKs, NKPAs, US and China, well, you’ve pretty much set the stage for World War III. Other regional powers have strong interests, and will likely get sucked in, I’m looking at you Japan and Russia.

一旦韩国、朝鲜、美国和中国都卷进来的话，那你基本上就为第三次世界大战做好准备了。其他地区大国有着强烈的利益，很有可能也会卷入其中，我估计会是日本和俄罗斯。

Generally, all the nuclear powers except North Korea, have stable, sensible-ish, governments, and maybe we could all step away from the brink and not start throwing missiles at each other. Maybe. But it is always a temptation for a nuclear power, when things are not going well, to look at their weapon of last resort, and say “maybe it’s time we use a few of these”. Once that happens, well, there is no way that ends well for humanity.

一般来说，除了朝鲜以外的所有核大国都有稳定、理智的政府，也许我们都可以远离危险的边缘，不至于互掷导弹。也许吧。但对于一个核能国家来说，当事情不顺利的时候，看看他们最后的武器，然后说也许是时候使用一些核武器了。
一旦发生这种情况，人类就没有办法得到好的结果。

Still, if we keep it conventional, the ROK Army wipes the floor with the North Koreans in a few weeks. Likely before China or the US can get there in serious force.

不过，如果我们保持常规部队，韩国军队在几周内就可以将朝鲜人打得一败涂地。很可能是在中国或美国能够大举进入之前。

Steve Collins, studied at Lowell High School
Um, the US is kind if like the appendix in this situation. Utterly unnecessary.

嗯，在这种情况下，美国就像附录一样。完全没有必要。

North Korea
~1.2 million active duty, 600,000 reserves
~4500 tanks - none are newer than the 1970’s vintage T-72 and more than half are from the 1960’s and prior
~8000 APC/IFV - All from the early 80’s or older
~600 Combat Aircraft - Only 70 are 4th generation fighters and there are no 4.5th gen or 5th gen fighters
~29 Attack Helicopters

朝鲜
120万现役部队，60万预备部队
4500辆坦克——都是1970年前的T-72坦克，超过一半是60年代及以前的
8000辆步兵战车——都是80年代及之前的
600架战斗机——只有70架四代机，没有四代半和五代机
29架攻击直升机

Training and morale levels are generally considered poor and their military has little funding to maintain proper maintenance and logistical supplies

训练和士气一般被认为很差，军队几乎没有经费维持适当的维修和后勤供应

South Korea
~625,000 active duty, 3,000,000 reserves
~2500 tanks - ~1750 of which are modern (post 1985) main battle tanks
~3200 APC/IFV - All but 400 manufactured after 1985
~500 Combat Aircraft - 120 of which are 4th generation fighters with 60 4.5th gen and 1 5th gen fighter in inventory and 39 more scheduled for delivery
~380 Attack Helicopters

韩国
62.5万现役部队，300万预备役
2500辆坦克——1750辆为现代（1985年以后）主战坦克
500架战斗机——其中120架四代机及60架四代半战机，一架五代机和39架预定交付的五代机
380攻击直升机

Training and morale levels are generally considered excellent and they are one of the best funded and supported militaries on the planet relative to the scope of their mission.

一般认为，韩国的训练和士气很优秀，相对于他们的任务范围，他们是世界上资金和后勤最好的军队之一。

So the North Korean military is a little larger however there is a MASSIVE qualitative difference as somewhere over half of South Korea’s military equipment is on par with the best any other country has to offer and the overwhelming majority of North Korean military gear is cast off 1950’s and 1960’s vintage Soviet and Chinese . They even go so far back as to have a few WW2 T-34 tanks in service.

所以朝鲜的军队规模略大于韩国，然而，在质量上却有着巨大的差别，韩国军队半数以上的装备与其他国家能够提供的最好的装备相当，朝鲜绝大多数的军事装备都是在上世纪五六十年代前苏联和中国淘汰的。他们甚至还有一些二战期间的T-34坦克在服役。

Just looking at the tanks, the difference in capabilities between a modern MBT and the 3200+ T34, T55, T62, and Type 59 tanks in active service for the North is massive. It is literally to the point where it is viable to question whether the capabilities of those tanks is worth the fuel needed to drive them to a battlefield. They might be of some use in a defensive role as a semi mobile gun emplacement but on the offense they are worse than useless.

单单从坦克方面看，现代主战坦克与朝鲜的3200多辆T34、T55、T62和59式坦克之间性能上的差距是巨大的。毫不夸张地说，这些坦克的性能是否值得将它们投入战场所需的燃料都值得怀疑。在防守时，这些坦克作为半移动式机枪的安放位置还是有些用处的，但是在进攻时，它们一无是处。

The same story is told across all of the capabilities, yes the North Korean military is larger but 75% or more of the gear they use is so old that it has no useful offensive value. It might be able to successfully be employed in a defensive war but on offense it is a waste of assets even bothering to employ it.

在双方各种军事装备在性能上都存在这样的差距，是的，朝鲜的军队规模更大，但是75%以上的装备太过老旧，无法发动进攻。它们也许能够成功地用于防御战争，但在进攻中，即便费心去使用它们也只是一种资产的浪费。

Given that even if we assume no participation by the US or China there is simply no way that North Korea could carry out even a partially successful invasion of the South, even if they employed Nuclear weapons in a tactical manner. Sure they could kill millions of South Korean civilians in Seoul with their artillery and destroy a couple more cities with nukes, at the end of the day however their military simply lacks the capability to successfully attack the South.

考虑到即使我们假设美国或中国没有参与战争，朝鲜也无法对韩国实施部分成功的入侵，即使朝鲜以战术方式使用核武器。的确，朝鲜可以借助火炮杀死首尔的数以百万计的韩国民众，用核武器摧毁更多的城市，但他们的军队根本没有能力成功攻击韩国。

Honestly if they were to try I would be shocked if a single unit of theirs made it more than 50 km from the DMZ before they were pushed back

老实说，如果朝鲜试图入侵韩国，在他们的一个部队在被击退之前，能在非军事区推进50多公里，我会感到震惊。

Paul Ch
The original question assumes that in year 2018, KPA (Korean People's Army, of North Korea) will be able to cross the DMZ and actually move into South Korean territory. This simple assumption comes from people just having the basic knowledge of the Korean War, that KPA (Korean People's Army, of North Korea) simply walked into South Korea on 1950-6-25 with ROKA (Republic of Korea Army, of South Korea) barely offering any resistance.

一开始的问题是假设朝鲜人民军于2018年穿越非军事区进入韩国领土。这个假设来自于对朝鲜战争有基本了解的人，即朝鲜人民军在1950年6月25日开进韩国，而韩国军队几乎没有抵抗。

There's this misconception from the Korean War 1950-53 that ROKA was comically inept while KPA was full of tough, super soldiers.

1950年至1953年的朝鲜战争中存在着一种误解，认为韩国军队愚蠢可笑，而朝鲜军队都是强悍的超级士兵。

It's all wrong. I will explain below.

这种说法是错误，我将在下面解释。

# First, a little history lesson.

首先，讲一点点历史知识。

Before 1950, on the South/North Korean border area, there had been numerous small unit engagements between ROKA and KPA. The engagements involved small platoons and upto battalions and even regiments(?). And South Korean units usually came on top, due to American military advisors whose free flowing tactics naturally were better in such engagements than rigid tactics usually employed by Soviet styled armies.

1950年前，在朝韩边境地区朝鲜军队和韩国军队发生了多次小交战。交战规模从排到营级单位再到兵团。由于美国军事顾问的自由流动战术自然比前苏联军队采用的僵硬策略更好，韩国军队通常占据上风。

We just don't hear about it much (even South Koreans) as not that great records were kept (desperately poor and underfunded army usually does not), AND what little were recorded were lost in the Korean War. Remember the government buildings of South Korea in Seoul was sacked within just a few days of the start of the Korean War on 1950-06-25. And many who participated in such engagements were captured/killed through the 3 years long war.

我们（甚至韩国人）只是不太了解这件事，因为记录并没有保存下来（极度贫穷和资金不足的军队不会将这些记录下来）少量的记录也在朝鲜战争中丢失了。还记得在1950年6月25日朝鲜战争爆发几天后，首尔政府大楼被洗劫一空的事儿吗？许多参加这些战斗的人在三年的战争中被俘或被杀。

When the Joint Chiefs of Staff of US made press releases praising the effectiveness of ROKA (such releases were made) in late 1940s, they were not blowing smoke. In the period before 1950-06-25, it was true. They had victories, albeit in small engagements, to show.

当二十世纪四十年代美国参谋长联席会议发文称赞韩国军队的能力时，双方尚未交战。在1950年6月25日前，这是真的。他们取得了胜利，尽管只是小规模的交战。

There's no records I can link to as there's little official records of such events, other than personal recollections shared in military history related blogs I have read.

我无法连接到任何记录，因为这些事情的官方记录很少，除了我读过的与军事历史相关的博客中分享的个人回忆。

# 200 T-34 tanks in KPA

朝鲜军队中的200辆T-34坦克

Before the outbreak of the Korean War, Joseph Stalin equipped the KPA with over 200 modern tanks such as the T-34. ROKA/US had no idea these tanks were in KPA. This is the same T-34 Medium tank that caused so much trouble for the Germans. Yes, the Germans in WW2. And Germans had Panzer tanks, Panzerfaust, and Stukas, but still could not stop T-34. ROKA had no tanks nor any effective anti-tank weapons. They had a small unit of a dozen or so American-made half-tracks with mounted machine guns at the start of the Korean War.

在朝鲜战争爆发前，斯大林同志为人民军配备了200多辆现代坦克诸如T-34。韩国/美国不知道这些坦克在朝鲜。就是这样的T-34中型坦克给德国人带来了很多麻烦。是的，二战中的德国人。德国有装甲坦克、铁拳（德国反坦克火箭弹）及斯图卡俯冲轰炸机，但还是挡不住T-34的。韩国军队既没有坦克也没有任何有效的反坦克武器。朝鲜战争伊始，他们只有一支美国制造的装备重机枪的半履带式装甲车组成小分队。

By the way most ROKA soldiers had not seen any tank, let alone any tracked combat vehicles in their life before T-34.

顺便说一句，在T-34出现之前，大多数韩国士兵都没见过坦克，更别说任何机械化部队了。

Before 1950, South Korean government had asked US for tanks. But US government refused, partly because of belligerent talks by Syngman Rhee about marching onto PyongYang of North Korea to unite the peninsula. And no, KPA invaded ROK. Some incredibly insist that ROK invaded KPA.

1950年前，韩国政府曾要求美国提供坦克。但是美国政府拒绝了，部分原因是时任韩国总统李承晚有进入平壤进行统一朝鲜半岛的谈判。但是谈判破裂了，朝鲜入侵了韩国。有些人难以置信地坚持认为是韩国入侵朝鲜。

The other reason was the US Military Advisors who determined Korean peninsula was not a "tank country" due to the terrain, so they chose not to issue tanks to ROKA. And they apparently thought Soviet advisors in KPA would think the same and falsely assumed no Soviet tanks would be given to KPA. The worse mistake was issuing ROKA antitank guns, but not armor piercing shells. US Military issued 57mm M1 Antitank Guns to ROKA, but because they thought no tanks would be used in Korean, no armor piercing shells were issued. Only high explosive shells. It's a simple, tragic oversight that would have very far reaching consequences for the Korean War, and even the modern history in my opinion.

另外一个原因是美国的军事顾问认为由于地形问题，韩国不适合拥有坦克，所以他们没有向韩国军队提供坦克。显然，他们认为朝鲜人民军的苏联顾问也是这么想的，并错误地认为苏联不会向朝鲜提供坦克。更严重的错误是美国只向韩国提供了反坦克炮，却没有穿甲弹。美国军方提供了57毫米M1反坦克炮，但因为他们认为朝鲜不会使用坦克，所以没有配发穿甲弹。只有高爆弹。这是一个简单但悲剧性的疏忽，它对朝鲜战争甚至对现代历史产生深远的影响。

Had the ROKA simply been given armor piercing shells for 57mm M1 Antitank Guns, the quick march of the T-34 could've been stopped. Seoul could've been protected. This is very possible because there are only a few routes that tanks/army can take to travel towards Seoul from the north. Block those few routes with effective anti-tank guns, and Seoul is relatively safe.

如果韩国军队只拿到了57毫米M1反坦克炮的穿甲弹，本可以阻止T-34的快速突进。首尔本可以得到保护。这是有可能的，因为朝鲜坦克/军队只有少数几条路线可以从朝鲜进军首尔。用有效的反坦克炮可以封锁这几条线路，首尔就相对安全了。

# Artillery/fighters

炮兵/战斗机

On top of the T-34 tanks, KPA also had Yak fighters, howitzers, etc. ROKA had none.

除了T-34坦克外，朝鲜军队还配备了牦牛战斗机、榴弹炮等。韩国军队啥都没有。

# T-34

T-34坦克

Again, think of what a few dozen tanks can do against an enemy unit with no tanks, no real artillery, no direct fire antitank weaponry of any kind, and no close air support. There's not a whole lot they can do. Only possible outcome is dying while trying to defend or turn and run. No wonder ROKA seems to have melted away at the beginning of the Korean War in 1950. Any other army would’ve done the same.

再想想，几十辆坦克在没有坦克、没有真正的大炮、没有任何种类的直接反坦克武器火力、没有近距离空中支援的情况下，能对敌军做些什么。他们做不了什么。 唯一可能的结果是在试图防守或转身逃跑时被杀死。难怪韩国士兵似乎在1950年朝鲜战争开始时就已经销声匿迹了。其他军队也会这样做的。

# So what about today?

如今怎么样？

Today, the picture is very different. Just read this:

今天，情况大不相同。请阅读以下内容：

Paul Ch's answer to What modern nation's military should definitely not be underestimated if they went to war?

保罗对“现代国家军队在战争中不应被低估的是什么”的回答？

Not too long ago I wrote above response to question "What modern nation's military should definitely not be underestimated if they went to war?" on Quora.

不久前，我在Quora中回答了“如果现代国家的军队参战，绝对不应该低估什么？”

In the response I stated that ROKA deserves the 2nd or 3rd spot (almost surely 4th) after US in ranking when the comparison was made in army only. For example, ROKA fields more Gen 3 or 4 MBTs than any European nation. ROKA's artillery strength matches China or Russia in quantity/quality. Seems unbelievable, but it is true.

在回答中，我说，当只就军队进行比较时，韩国应该排在美国军队之后的第二或第三位（几乎可以肯定是第四位）。例如，韩国的第三代或第四代主战坦克数量超过了任何欧洲国家。韩国的炮兵实力在数量/质量上与中国或俄罗斯相当。似乎难以置信，但这是真的。

David Bushey, Liberal and proud of it.
World War III.

第三次世界大战

So China would not go to war with United States for just Korea. China would go to war for Korea, China, Taiwan, and the South Asian Sea. They might even go to war for Japan as well. The goal would be to kick the west out of the western pacific once and for all. The mentality is that the East is China’s and it will suffer no more western empires nor their allies in its vicinity.

所以中国不会仅仅为了韩国而与美国开战。中国将为朝鲜、中国、台湾和南中国海开战。他们甚至可能为日本而战。他们的目标是将西方人一劳永逸地踢出西太平洋。这种心态是，东方是中国的，不会再遭受西方帝国及其周边盟友的伤害。

If China goes to war against the US, you can bet that India will go to war with China over control of the Tibetan plateau. That is the source of India’s water and it’s control by China is an existential crisis for the sub continent. It would be a now or never moment.

如果中国与美国开战，你可以确信印度将与中国开战，控制青藏高原。这是印度的水源，中国对印度的控制是次大陆存在的危机。这要么现在就会发生要么永远不会发生。

A war between India and China will draw in Pakistan, which has geopolitical ties to China and wants their neighbor weakened. They know if India does get control of the plateau, their own supremacy is threatened.

印度和中国之间的战争将吸引巴基斯坦，巴基斯坦与中国有地缘政治关系，希望他们的邻国被削弱。他们知道，如果印度真的控制了高原，他们自己的霸权就会受到威胁。

Finally Russia. I suspect that Russia will feel this is their moment to drag the EU and US down to their level, or lower. Knock down the western institutions that threaten them once and for all. They’d throw down with China rather than risk China being defeated and Russia being forced to stand alone to be strangled by economic sanctions. That drags in Europe via article 5 of NATO.

最后是俄罗斯。我怀疑俄罗斯会觉得现在正是他们将欧盟和美国拖到更低水平的时候。彻底摧毁威胁他们的西方机构。他们宁可与中国同归于尽，也不愿冒着中国被打败、俄罗斯被经济制裁勒死的风险。俄罗斯通过北约第5条拖累欧洲。

AND it’s ON! Iran, Turkey, and Syria might see this as their moment to eradicate and break Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Middle East has been itching for a global war for 70 years now. Turkey could very easily flip to allow its leader to show his ‘independence and strength’.

它已经开始！伊朗、土耳其和叙利亚可能认为这是他们铲除和摧毁沙特阿拉伯和以色列的时刻。70年来，中东一直渴望一场全球性的战争。土耳其可以很容易翻身，让其领导人表现出他的“独立和力量”。

Fortunately South America would be able to watch all this and just sigh. While they have economic ties with China, they don’t have any political ideology and are far enough from the fighting that they really don’t have a stake in anything. About the largest risk that might… MIGHT… happen is Venezuela tries to take the Panama Canal for… I dunno… reasons. It would be a very costly distraction.

幸运的是，南美洲能够目睹这一切，但只能深深叹息。虽然他们与中国有经济联系，但他们没有任何政治意识形态，而且与战争相距甚远，他们真的没有任何利害关系。关于最大的风险…可能…委内瑞拉试图夺回巴拿马运河…我不知道…原因。这将是一个非常昂贵的干扰。

Matt Hendley, CPT, Executive Officer at U.S. Army (2016-present)
North Korea will not invade the south. At least not in the extent that the question is thinking. NK 21st Century Arms production has been focused on two avenues. Nuclear Weapons and Ballistic Missile Technology. It is safe to assume, that any conflict with the NK starting with a nuclear missile launch simultaneously against SK and Japan. Hitting the Major, transportation Hubs, and preventing the US from easily or Quickly reinforcing forces already in theater. Seoul would be destroyed, both by Nukes and conventional weapons. NK Army forces would serve a defensive positioning at that point, attempting to argue for a diplomatic solution. Failing this, they would then launch their remaining Nukes, which would be on the growing ICBM stockpiles that they have against the US mainland and Hawaii (biggest western Naval base). You can write off the ROK at that point, plus whatever US forces are there. As whatever survives would be ineffectual. US Navy would move a fleet in and begin to degrade NK air defenses, and once Air superiority is confirmed, allow for conventional forces to be inserted to look for NK leadership.

朝鲜不会入侵韩国。至少在问题思考的程度上没有。朝鲜在21世纪的武器生产主要集中在两个方面。核武器和弹道导弹技术。可以肯定的是，任何与朝鲜的冲突都是从同时向朝鲜和日本发射核导弹开始的。打击主要的交通枢纽，阻止美国轻易或迅速加强已经在战区的部队。首尔将被核武器和常规武器摧毁。朝鲜军队将以此进行谈判，试图寻求外交解决方案。如果不能做到这一点，他们将发射剩余的核武器，这些核武器将依赖于他们对美国大陆和夏威夷（最大的西方海军基地）日益增长的洲际弹道导弹储备。到那时，韩国和美国在韩驻军都将消失。因为任何幸存下来的人都是挡不住朝鲜的。美国海军将派遣一支舰队进入朝鲜并开始削弱其防空能力，一旦掌握了空中优势，就允许常规部队进入朝鲜争夺领导权。

Keep in Mind, that when this scenario happens you will lose two of the worlds biggest economies. The Subsequent Crash of the Markets would make 2008 look like a hickup.

记住，当这种情况发生时，你将失去两个世界上最大的经济体。随后的市场崩溃将使2008年金融危机看起来像是一场打嗝。

The Chinese are declaring loudly 3 things as soon as anything starts. 1. They didn't know anything beforehand (go ahead and get the NK) 2. They aren't doing anything now (declaring neutrality) 3. Not to interpret any of the events as a blank check to get them. (don't attack China). They would also be the big winners economically as all the other markets in the region would go up in smoke.

中国人一有动静就大声宣布三件事。1。他们事先什么都不知道（进入占领朝鲜）2。他们现在什么都没做（宣布中立）3。不要将任何事件作为攻击中国的借口。（不要攻击中国）。在经济上，它们也将是最大的赢家，因为该地区的所有其他市场都将烟消云散。

David Loeb
South Korea ain’t the country it was during the first war. It is a genuine economic and military power not a four year old post colonial farming based dictatorship. The primary reason the U.S. forces are there are deterrence not that the South Koreans aren’t capable of defending themselves from the North. South Korea has the 10th largest defense budget in the world, similar to Japan, Germany, and Brazil and not much behind Russia, Britain, and France especially when you consider a far more limited set of defense and national security goals.

韩国不是第一次战争时期的那个韩国了。它是一个真正的经济和军事大国，而不是一个有四年历史的后殖民地农业独裁政权。美国军队之所以有威慑力，主要原因不是韩国人没有能力自卫于朝鲜。韩国的国防预算世界上第十，与日本、德国和巴西类似，并没有落后于俄罗斯、英国和法国，尤其是在考虑一系列更为有限的国防和国家安全目标时。

Put it another way. South Korea’s peace time defense budget is larger than North Korea’s entire GDP.

换一种说法。韩国的和平时期国防预算超过了朝鲜的全部国内生产总值。

Basically North Korea through it’s border artillery and nuclear weapons has a deterrent against intervention. They saw the Iraq wars and saw what happened when Soviet era equipment and doctrine went up against modern American equipment and doctrine, which South Korea has. They built nukes because they knew they no longer had a credible deterrent with conventional forces. They are a threat because they can do a lot of damage not because they could actually win a war.

基本上，朝鲜通过其边境炮兵和核武器能够对干预产生威慑力。他们看到了伊拉克战争，看到了苏联时代的装备和战术与韩国的现代美国装备和战术发生了冲突。他们建造核武器是因为他们知道他们不再对常规部队有可靠的威慑力。它们是一种威胁，因为它们能造成很大的破坏，而不是因为它们能真正赢得战争。

Jesse Morehouse, former Military Leader for Several Decades
The posts about this turning into WWIII are probably extremely unlikely. Possible but highly unlikely.

关于这个转变成第三次世界大战的情况极不可能发生。可能，但可能性很小。

The most likely scenario is that NK would never invade the South. Their entire posture is defensive and while they are “crazy” to many on the outside, I think their posture does in fact match their stated defensive focus. They don’t trust the US and use that as an excuse to keep the screws on their population a la Orwellian 1984 logic. A war would ruin them and they know it. The individual “crazy” acts of probing/proding the South are likely signs of how ineffectively the central government really has control of its forces and all the missile/nuke actions are clearly of deterrent value only. The most reasonable scenario is the North implodes in a few decades unless China actively props them up to keep a buffer there. When they implode could they do something irrational shortly before crumbling? Possibly. That is the moment to watch for but it would be a last gasp and Id be surprised if China and the US can respond in time to effectively engage and would be even more surprised if they did a whole lot. They both have a lot to lose and little to gain by engaging. The moment it even looked like they might the markets would crash.

最有可能的情况是朝鲜不会入侵南方。他们的整个姿态都是防御性的，虽然他们“疯狂”对许多外界人士来说，我认为他们的姿态确实符合他们所说的防守重点。他们不信任美国，并以此为借口，让他们的人口保持1984年的拉奥威尔逻辑。战争会毁了他们，他们心知肚明。个人“疯狂”对南部进行探测/刺激的行为很可能是朝鲜中央政府对其部队的控制无效的迹象，而且所有的导弹/核武器行动显然只具有威慑价值。最合理的设想是，除非中国积极支持朝鲜保持缓冲，否则几十年后朝鲜将发生内战。当内战发生的时候，它们能在崩溃前不久做些非理性的事情吗？可能。这是值得关注的时刻，但这将是最后的喘息，如果中国和美国能够及时作出反应，有效地参与进来，我会感到惊讶，如果他们做了很多事情，我会更加惊讶。他们两国都会失去很多，只有很少的收获。两国市场可能会崩溃。

Kirk Saboda, former Submarine Officer / Strike Warfare Officer at United States Navy
China is on record as stated that except for an existential attack on North Korea they will not send troops to refight the war. It is ambiguous whether or not they’d get involved if the PRK started the fight and the response by the RoK overwhelmed the PRK forces and it evolved into an existential threat.

中国的记录表明，除了对朝鲜的存在主义攻击，他们不会派遣军队来重新发动战争。如果朝鲜发动战争，韩国的反击压倒了朝鲜军队，并演变成一种存在的威胁，他们是否会参与其中，这是不明确的。

MY guess is they would prefer for many many reasons for the Korea’s to unify under a republic. It solves so many issues and removes the only Asian hot spot from being able to interfere with trade.

我的猜测是，由于许多原因，他们更希望韩国统一在一个共和国之下。这样就解决很多的问题，并消除了唯一能够干扰贸易的亚洲热点。

How do they get there? it’s tricky because since 1949, they’ve committed to being a strong defender of the PRK but now… the Chinese are no longer communists first, but Chinese first and their economy does much better when they are in union with thriving economies like South Korea, the US and Europe.

他们如何做到呢？这很棘手，因为自1949年以来，他们一直致力于成为一名强大的朝鲜的捍卫者，但现在……中国人不再是GCD第一，但中国人第一，当他们与韩国、美国和欧洲等蓬勃发展的经济体联合时，他们的经济会表现得更好。

For China the re-establishment of the silk route is of profound significance and a major strategic goal because a high volume overland route to European and Africa markets places the USA as an outlier

对中国来说，重新建立丝绸之路具有深远的意义和重大的战略目标，因为通往欧洲和非洲市场的大量陆路运输将美国踢出局外。

Ray Nieves, Have a masters degree. Served in USAFR, In health care
We are not in the time of the 1950s, so today this would not be a repeat of the Korean war:

现在已经不是20世纪50年代了，所以今天这不会是朝鲜战争的重演：

1-The South Korean defense forces are strong and NOTHING like what they were in 1950’s. Well trained troops, modern, state of the art tanks and planes, stronger, healthier soldiers over all. North Korea’s troops, while more in number, carry old weapons, 60’s planes and tanks all in poor states of maintenance and in general poor health, the ROK armies would have no problem repelling NK incursions, especially with US support….UNLESS the North Koreans were to use a nuke, in which case the US AND most of the UN would come back at them very hard.

韩国的国防力量很强大，与20世纪50年代的情况完全不同。训练有素的军队，现代化的，最先进的坦克和飞机，更强大，更健康的士兵。朝鲜军队虽然数量更多，使用的旧武器、60架飞机和坦克，这些武器和坦克的维修状况都很差，总体状况也很差，韩国军队将毫无问题地击退朝鲜的入侵，特别是在美国的支持下……除非朝鲜人使用核武器，在这种情况下，美国和大部分联合国国家将会进行非常强硬的回击。

2-The China of today would NOT send in troops in support of NK as China is now a world power and major player in the international scene. They would not support the rogue actions of a quasi ally if they pursue an invasion that would turn the world against them. NK would be on their own in this action

2-今天的中国不会派遣军队支持朝鲜，因为中国现在是世界强国，在国际舞台上扮演着重要角色。如果他们进行的入侵会使世界对他们不利，他们不会支持准盟友的流氓行为。在这次行动中，朝鲜将独立行动

3-So, the question is would the NK forces use nukes. Doubtful: they know the US would turn NK into a sheet of glass if they were to use nukes so the only hope NK would have of pulling this off is in a straight up invasion. And that would not be effective (see #1 above).

所以，问题是朝鲜军队会使用核武器吗？值得怀疑的：他们知道，如果美国使用核武器，他们会把朝鲜变成一片废墟，所以朝鲜唯一能实现这一目标的希望就是直接入侵。这是无效的（见上文1）。

Christopher Laird, Military history buff, CIA part of family tree
North Korea would probably achieve tactical but not strategic surprise. China wouldn't intervene directly unless we were about to take all of North Korea. The war couldn't last too long, as weapons stockpiles would get rapidly depleted. Would China risk a generation of trade cut off, plus the certain massive casualties from fighting the US to support Rocketman? I have no idea, but dumber moves have been made before. My guess is the DPRK would launch nukes if they were in danger of losing, and if they hit the US, we would respond, massively, unless China took care of the Kim cult for good.

朝鲜可能会达到战术上的意外效果，但在战略上不会。除非我们即将占领朝鲜全境，否则中国不会直接干预。武器储备会迅速消耗殆尽，所以战争不会持续太久。至于中国会不会冒着贸易被切断的风险加上与美国战斗带来的大规模人员伤亡支持“火箭人”，我不知道，但是愚蠢的行为此前曾发生过。我的猜测是朝鲜面临亡国的风险时会向美国发射核武器，如果他们袭击了美国，我们会做出大规模反击，除非中国会永远照顾好金正恩。

You think anyone recalls the reason WW1 got started? Many folks don't know, but it set the stage for WW2, which led to at least a combined 75 million deaths. My point is leaders throughout history take war lightly, and us huddled masses are the ones who end up filling the cemeteries.

你认为有人记得第一次世界大战开始的原因吗？很多人不知道，但它为二战奠定了基础，导致至少7500万人死亡。我想说的是，纵观历史，领导人们都对战争轻描淡写，最终都是我们这些芸芸大众填满了坟墓。
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