成飞首席设计师预计中国下一代战斗机将在2035年投入使用 [美国媒体]

An interview with Dr Wang Haifeng was published today on the Wechat account of AVIC Times link. Wang Haifeng is the Chief Designer at Chengdu/611 Institute (the guys who designed J-20 and J-10 before it, among others), and in charge of various projects including TVC engine demo, TBCC development, and efforts for developing future fighter technologies (6th generation). So he's pretty authoritative and credible in the industry so to speak.

中国航空时报微信账号刊登了对王海峰博士的采访。王海峰是中国成都611研究院总设计师(J-20和J-10之前的设计师)，负责TVC（矢量）发动机演示、TBCC（涡轮基组合循环发动机）开发、未来(第六代)战斗机技术研发等多个项目。可以说，他在这个行业说的话非常权威和可信。

Basically, Dr Wang here talks briefly about some US and European next generation fighter efforts (including the US Air Superiority 2030 Flight Plan). He states that there are some prevailing trends that next generation fighters will certainly have such as manned/unmanned cooperation, AI application, and very high stealth, omnidirectional sensors/detection and weapons capability, as well as others that may be emerging like laser weapons, adaptive engines, hypersonic weapons, and swarm technologies

王博士简单介绍了一些美国和欧洲关于下一代战斗机的努力方向(包括美国的空优2030飞机计划)。他说，下一代战斗机肯定会有一些流行趋势，如有人/ 无人协同技术、人工智能技术、更高级的隐身效果、全向探测全向攻击技术。也有一些不太确定的创新颠覆性技术，像激光武器技术、自适应发动机、高超音速武器、蜂群作战，这些技术可能会改变未来的战争模式。

Dr Wang is basically saying he expects China's next generation fighter (presumably 6th generation) to enter service by or before 2035.

王博士说，他预计中国下一代战斗机(第六代)将在2035年或更早服役。

This interview is pretty important for a few reasons. Not only is it someone very high up in the industry confirming that efforts for next generation fighter development is well underway, but also mentions various characteristics that he expects the next generation fighter to have. Furthermore, saying all this in 2019 -- up to 16 years before his stated "in service" date -- is almost unprecedented in terms of "lead time".

这次采访非常重要，原因如下：
首先，权威业内人士确认，中国下一代战斗机正在井然有序地开发中，而且下一代战斗机会融合各种新的技术。
其次，在2019年开年就透露出关于中国第六代战机的消息，这种超前的官方爆料在此前是从未有过的。

For example, we only received "official" confirmation back in the November 2009 from General He Weirong that China was indeed working on a 5th generation fighter when he said it would enter service between 2017-2019 giving us a "lead time" of 8-10 years.

回忆一下，直到2009年11月，中国官方才正式承认自己在研制第五代战斗机（歼20），而且官方当时表示，该战机将在2017-2019年交付，投产前的研制周期将长达8至10
年。

The fact that someone in this official capacity like Dr Wang is openly acknowledging development of the next generation fighter so early on from his own stated in service date projection, is very surprising and unprecedented in my recent memory.

在我的记忆中，像王博士这样的官员这么早就公开承认中国下一代战斗机的发展状况，是非常令人吃惊的，也是前所未有的。

EauRougeFlatOut
You mean unprecedented for China I’m assuming?

你的意思是说，这种过早透露尖端武器研发进程的情况在中国是很少见的，是吗？

PLArealtalk
Yes, this early stage of disclosure is unprecedented for the way that the Chinese industry and military has operated in the past.

是的，对于中国工业和军队的运作流程来说，这种过早透漏消息的情况是前所未有的

EauRougeFlatOut
Yeah very US-esque. Not sure what to make of that really. Great write up!
哈哈，中国人这么做有点美国人的风格，虽然不知真假，但你的文章写得很好！

TehRoot
I find that incredibly hard to believe unless the Chinese have abandoned their plan to bring the FC-31 or J-20 into widespread service and instead invest all efforts into a 6th generation platform.2035 sounds like an incredibly optimistic timeframe for even prototypes honestly.

我觉得难以置信，除非中国放弃了大量服役FC-31（歼31）或J-20（歼20）的计划，转而将所有精力投入第6代战斗机研发中去。
否则2035年这个时间限听起来过于乐观。

PLArealtalk
To be honest I'm a little surprised too. But when you look at the years in
between it's actually not that crazy.

说实话，当我看到这条新闻时，我也有点惊讶。但如果你看看中国在这两年间发生的事，其实这条新闻还是有可信度的。

Let's call the notional PLA 6th gen fighter J-X. If J-X is intended to enter service in 2035, it means a maiden flight should occur at least 5 years before, but more like 7 years realistically going by past projects -- so a maiden flight by 2028 at the latest.

首先，让我们把中国解放军的第6代战斗机命名为J-X。
如果J-X计划在2035年投入使用，那这意味着这款战机应该至少提前5年进行试飞。
但按照中国过去的实际项目流程来看，试飞进度可能会提前7年——所以中国的第六代战机最迟会在2028年进行首次飞行。

For J-X to enter service in 2035 also means it'll probably have to begin low rate production a few years before as well (again, going by past/current practice) -- meaning initial production will have to begin around 2032-33 at the latest.

对于中国第六代战机来说，要在2035年投入使用还意味着它必须在几年前开始低速生产(同样，这是根据中国过去/当前的生产实践得出的结论)——这意味着中国第六代
战机最早会在2032-33年左右开始生产。

Now, if we compare J-X's projected dates with J-20...
J-20 maiden flight in early 2011, 17 years before J-X maiden flight.
J-20 initial production began in 2016, 16-17 years before J-X initial production.
J-20 entered service in combat units in 2018, 17 years before J-X projected service date.

现在，我们比较一下中国第六代战机与第五代战机（歼20）各自的计划日期…
J-20在2011年初首飞，比第六代战机J-X首飞早17年。
J-20在2016年初始生产，比第六代战机J-X初始生产早16-17年。
J-20在2018年进入战斗单位服役，比第六代战机J-X预计服役日期早17年。

The above seems quite reasonable especially if we compare J-20's maiden flight, initial production and service dates with its predecessor the J-10...

如果你还不信服，等接下来我们比较完歼20和它的前辈歼10，在首次飞行，初始生产
和服役日期上的时间差，你就会觉得我的论述有那么一丝合理性了。

J-10 maiden flight 1998, 13 years before J-20 maiden flight.
J-10 initial production began in 2003, 13 years before J-20 initial production.
J-10 entered service in combat units slightly after 2004, about 14 years before J-20 entered service.
J-10在1998年首飞，比J-20首飞早了13年。
J-10在2003年初始生产，比J-20的初始生产早了13年。
J-10在2004年后进入战斗单位服役，比J-20服役时间早了14年。

So in terms of "time between generations" for various important milestones J-X would actually have more time between it and J-20, compared to J-20 and J-10.

考虑到战机一代比一代先进，所以相较J-10与J-20的时间跨度而言，中国第六代战机J-X与J-20的时间跨度实际会更长。

It's also worth remembering that even now as J-20 is entering service, the latest J-10C variants are still being produced and inducted as well. By the time J-X begins to enter service, I wouldn't put it past new J-20 variants or FC-31 derived 5th gen variants still being produced too.

同样值得我们注意的是，虽然中国的J-20已经服役，但中国最新的J-10C仍然在生产和服役。
所以，当中国的第六代战机J-X服役时，中国新的J-20或J-31改进型仍会在生产进行之中。

At this stage I'm definitely surprised by what Dr Wang has said but I can't say I'm entirely skeptical. It will be very dependent on funding and the overall expertise and capability of the industry. But considering the date the US has put forward for itself to induct 6th gen capability

其实我个人也对王博士说的话感到惊讶，但我并不能完全否定。
第六代战机非常依赖于资金，以及整个行业的专业知识能力，美国之前也已经提出了自己的第六代战斗机的服役日期

I expect China would've long planned to close the gap from a decade plus long for fielding 5th gen, to something shorter like half a decade for 6th gen.

考虑到中国在很早之前就曾计划缩小与美国的技术差距。
中美两国的第五代战机（J-20/F-22）服役时间又只相差10年，所以我预计，中美在第六代战机上的服役时间差可能会缩短至5年。

I will also say this -- If, in 2002, someone told me an aircraft like J-20 would enter service 16 years later in 2018, I would probably have been many times more skeptical than I am now towards J-X, and laughed them out of the room.

我还想说，如果在2002年，有人告诉我有一架像J-20这样的飞机将在16年后的2018年投入使用，我可能会嗤之以鼻，然后笑着把他们轰出房间。

I_H8_Y8s
Very good points.
Additionally, manufacturing is handled by 132nd Manufacturing Plant while R&D is handled by 611th Research Institute. They're two separate teams whose work are unaffected by the other so long as funding to both are sufficient; it's not an 'either... or' issue. I don't foresee funding to be an issue for CAC; their country has enough cash to go around and they're the country's favourites.

你说的很好。
此外，战斗机的制造工作由成都132飞机制造厂负责，而研发工作由成飞611研究所负责。
他们是两个不同的团队，所以只要两个团队的资金充足，他们的工作就不会互相干扰。
对于中国来说，五代机和六代机不是一个二选一问题，而是“我全都要”。
我认为资金对成飞（CAC）来说不是问题；他们国家有足够的资金，而且新型战斗机是这个国家的宠儿。

PLArealtalk
I do wonder how in-service support for J-20 and inevitable development of further variants of J-20 will affect work between 611 and 132 respectively and how much personnel 611 will have free to work on 6th gen efforts... but then again, 611 managed to develop J-10B and J-10C among other projects while also working simultaneously on J-20 at the same time so it's certainly not impossible going forwards.

确实。
我其实很想知道中国J-20的不断服役和改进是如何影响132厂和611研究所各自的工作的。我还想知道611所有多少人参与了中国第六代战斗机的研发工作。
但话又说回来，既然611所能在开发J-20的同时开发J-10B和J-10C，那么未来继续向前发展也并非不可能。