你怎么预测2019年的中国经济（上） [美国媒体]

What are your predictions for China's economy in 2019?

你怎么预测2019年的中国经济（上）



Clément Renaud, who knew I will end up there?
Answered Wed
The difficulty to predict what is going to happen in 2019 in China shows that we have entered very uncertain times.
The economic outlook of the coming year depends on how political tensions will resolve, both internally and globally.
The national Chinese economy itself has some problems but they are reasonably under control. Chinese people are working hard. The strategic industrial planning looks good. Businesses still flourish, even if many of the craziest opportunities are beyond already.

我们很难预测2019年中国会怎样，这表明了我们进入了非常不确定的时期。
今年的经济前景主要看政治紧张如何演变，包括内部的和全球的。
中国整体经济存在一些问题，但是得到了控制。中国人很勤劳。战略性的工业规划看起来很不错。商业依然在发展，虽然很多的好机遇已经在更远处。



Elephants are not bunnies. “External enemies” are not the key issues for them. Good self management is the key. Countries like China and the US are elephants, not bunnies. Thus for both countries, their economy next year is very much dependent on their own domestic policies. This should be the baseline understanding for both countries (which is why President Trump’s endless ‘countries A,B, C. D, E, F, G,… are keeping us down’-talking points are mostly baseless distractions).

大象不是兔子。“外部敌人”对于他们来说不是关键问题。良好的自我管理才是关键。像中美这样的国家都是大象，不是兔子。所以对于两国而言，他们今年的经济主要看各自国内的政策。这是了解这两个国家的基础（所以总统川普老是说某某国家让我们失望——这种论点大体上是没有依据的，不过是为了转移焦点）

But there the similarity ends. While the US economy is similar to the African Safari, the Chinese economy is more similar to a manicured farm. The US can only directly affects the economy with the Fed’s interest rate adjustment (which is like, do you want rain or drought? Pick one ’cause that all what I can do for you), so you, as an investor, need to worry about the potential for drought, flood, tornado, and avalanche. In China, that’s the Chinese government’s job to make sure those things are managed, which is why China started forcing companies to de-leverage for the past two years, forcing housing prices to stabilize, and control the exchange rate to keep other people’s troubles out. Inducing local avalanches to lower the risks of big, unplanned avalanches. China can say, I want industries 1 - 3 to reduce their outputs by 10%, and I want industries 4 - 10 to increase their outputs by 5 - 15%, and I want 2 new industry on so-and-so by the end of this year. So predicting the US economy is like predicting the weather. Predicting the Chinese economy is like predicting a construction project. They are, let’s just say, a bit different.

但是二者的相似之处也仅止于此。美国经济类似非洲狩猎旅行，而中国经济更像一个修剪整齐的农场。美国只能通过美联储的利率调整来直接影响经济（就像你要下雨还是干旱？选一个，因为我能为你做的就这么多），所以作为投资者的你需要担忧干旱，洪水，龙卷风和雪崩的可能性。在中国，中国政府的职责就是确保这些东西得到管理，这也是过去两年来中国开始强迫企业去杠杆化的原因所在，迫使住房价格稳定，通过控制汇率来抵挡他人的麻烦。诱导地方雪崩以降低意外大雪崩的风险。中国可以说，我想产业1-3降低产能10%，产业4-10增加产能5-15%，到年底要建立起两个新产业。所以预测美国经济就像预测天气，预测中国经济就像预测一个建筑项目。二者是存在 差异的。

Which means that predicting the Chinese economy is actually quite a bit easier, if you assume that the Chinese government has a competent engineering team. You just need to pull out China’s current Five-year plans of China as the blueprint, figure out where the current base is, then look up on the goals and targets. The Plan for 2016 - 2020 includes 24 goals and 13 binding targets. 6.5% average GDP growth target. These will be done. The only uncertainty is the exact timing. In fact, the US government keeps a close eye on China’s five-year-plans. Here is the one with the latest update, posted on the US Government’s site: https://www.uscc.gov/sites/defau...

这意味着预测中国经济要容易点，前提是中国政府有一个强大的工程团队。你只需要去看看中国当下的五年计划，看看他们现在的基础在哪里，目标又是什么。2016-2020年的五年计划包括了24个目标和13个约束性目标。平均6.5%的GDP增长率。就是如此而已。实际上美国政府在紧密关注着中国的五年计划。这是美国政府网站上最新的一篇：https://www.uscc.gov/sites/defau...



Ming Huang Chai
I like your bunny and elephant analogy. Thanks for sharing your insights once again. Happy New Year!

我喜欢你的兔子和大象类比。感谢分享你的见解。新年快乐。