为什么贸易战对中国人造成那么大伤害，以至于他们都买不起车了？ [美国媒体]

Why is the trade war hurting many Chinese so much that they cannot even buy cars any more?

为什么贸易战对中国人造成那么大伤害，以至于他们都买不起车了？



BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s car sales fell the most in nearly seven years in September, stoking concerns the world’s biggest auto market could contract for the first time in decades this year amid cooling economic growth and a biting trade war.

北京（路透社）——中国9月份的汽车销量下降幅度达到了7年来的最高点，人们担心世界最大的汽车市场可能会在今年萎缩，这是几十年来的第一遭。此时正值经济增长放缓以及中美贸易战。

Roger Jiang, lives in China
All the noise in Western media about the current economic woes of China, while quite sensational, is misleading.
These economic woes are self-inflicted and has nothing to do with the trade war. In fact, we have yet to see the impact of the trade war in the economies of both China and the US. China’s exports to the US actually increased because American customers are stockpiling the Chinese goods as much as possible before the tariffs are raised to 25% next year.

西方媒体中所有有关目前中国经济困境的噪音虽然很耸人听闻，但是都是误导性的。
这些经济困境是中国自己造成的，和贸易战没有一点关系。实际上，贸易战对中美经济的影响还没到来。中国对美国出口实际上在增加，因为美国人在尽量囤货，以备关税明年增加到25%。

Take the car sales in China for example. Chinese government temporarily removed the sales tax for auto in 2016 and then cut the sale tax by half in 2017. In 2018, the sales tax is restored. So this policy that aimed to stimulate car sales in previous years have largely exhausted lots of purchasing power. Hence the recent slow down in auto sales in China.

举中国的汽车销售为例。中国政府在2016年临时废除了销售税，2017年将销售税削减 一半。2018年，销售税恢复。所以过去几年的这些刺激汽车销售的政策已经大体上消耗掉了很多的购买力。所以中国汽车销量最近才有所下降。

Moreover, there was a sharp rally in real estate prices in 2016–17 so many families took on huge mortgages to participate in this real estate boom. Total mortgage outstanding in China doubled in mere three years. The addition of 20 trillion RMB new mortgage means Chinese families need to pay at least extra one trillion RMB in interests every year. That surely puts a huge dent on Chinese consumption, especially discretionary spending like buying a car.
The reuters reporer simply doesnt know what he is talking about. Very typical of many western reporting on China.

此外，2016-17年房地产价格有了极大的恢复，所以很多家庭通过抵押贷款参与了这次房地产繁荣。中国总的抵押贷款未偿还款三年内就翻了一番。这新增的20万亿人民币抵押贷款意味着中国家庭每年需要支付额外的至少1万亿人民币的利息。这肯定会对中国人的消费造成影响，特别是自主性支出，比如买车。
这个路透社记者根本不知道自己在说什么。典型的西方媒体对中国的报道。

Joseph Wang, studied at Ph.D Astronomy UT Austin, Physics MIT
It’s not.
One reason I get annoyed by all of these Western reports is that they simply do not match what I am seeing here on the ground.
Since the end of last year, the government has been worried about China having too much debt, and they’ve made it harder to borrow money. In particular, they’ve cracked down on P2P lending sites. Because it’s harder to get credit, this has caused auto sales to plummet.
This started before the trade war, and will go on after the trade war.
But this isn’t a big deal, since auto’s are considered a luxury item. Most people don’t have cars and because you have good public transportation, they don’t have much interest in buying cars.

并没有。所有西方媒体的报道让我感到愤怒的地方在于他们的报道和我的所见所闻完全不一样。
自去年底以来，政府担忧中国的债务过高，所以政府让借钱变得更难。政府尤其打压了P2P借贷网站。由于更难获得贷款，所以汽车销售下降了。这在贸易战之前就开始了，会一直持续到贸易战之后。但这不是什么大不了的事情，因为汽车被认为是奢侈品。大部分人没有车，而且由于公共交通方便，人们对买车的兴趣并不是很大。

Al Allington, lived in Cedar Springs, MI
You have fallen victim to the ridiculous propaganda pushed by US politicians and news outlets.
Traditionally most Chinese didn’t buy cars.. they cost s lot, a garage can cost $50,000 and I don’t see many gas stations where I live part time. Most Chinese are happy with a small electric scooter which is efficient and inexpensive.
China now has about 300 million licenses drivers but getting a license is expensive and time consuming. One gets a provisional license and for the first 12 months must drive with an experienced driver (3 years) in the car.
NITE: The average income is just $6000/yr in China VS $59,990 in the USA so we can’t expect all of them to buy a new Buick (biggest selling American car but made in Shanghai).
China freeway.

你又成为美国政治宣传的牺牲者。传统而言，大部分中国人不买车。车贵，而车位可以达到5万美元，而在我所居住的地方我没有看到很多汽车加油站。大部分中国人满足于小型的电动摩托车，高效又不贵。
中国现在拥有约3亿驾驶人，但是考驾照很昂贵，耗时间。获得驾照后会有12个月的实习期，必须有3年驾龄的人陪同才能上路。
中国的人均收入是每年6000美元，而美国是59990美元，所以我们不能期望他们所有人都去购买一辆新别克（销量最好的美国车，但是上海制造）。

Jamie Cawley, LIved in China 2012-2018, now Hong Kong
In 2017 China bought 25.8 million cars. The US bought 20.9 million.
For anyone interested, I did an analysis at Uni in Shanghai of this market (actually my students did the work). The Chinese car market is suffering from the dramatic rise in second hand car availability, due to sales of new cars rising so fast a few years ago.

2017年，中国购买了2580万辆车。美国购买了2090万辆。如果你们感兴趣的话，我在上海大学对这个市场进行了分析（实际上是我的学生做的）。中国汽车市场正受到二手汽车大量供应的影响，因为几年前新车的销售增速太快了。

David Annett
I found the second hand car market really immature (back in 2013). I brought a new BYD F0 and was the only person in my company to own a Chinese car spending less than half the amount the others did. I wanted transport, they wanted a status symbol. I assumed that was why the second hand market was so dead. Maybe the Chinese car ownership culture is maturing to see a car as a tool not a trophy?
As for ability for purchasing I think that is more driven by government rules in different cities than by money.

我发现2013年的时候二手车市场真的很不成熟。我买了一辆新的比亚迪F0，我是我公司里唯一一个购买中国汽车的人，费用不到其他人的一半。我要的是运输工具，他们要的是地位象征。我认为这就是二手车市场如此死寂的原因了。或须现在的中国汽车所有权文化已经成熟到视车为一个工具而不是战利品的时候了？
至于购车能力，我认为这更多是受到不同城市里的政府政策的驱动，而不是因为钱的因素。

Leo Kinnaman
What you wrote is very true. All the Chinese I knew habitually bought brand new cars like 5–10 years ago. This was partly because the market for 2nd-hand car was seen as unreliable. You could end up paying money for a stolen vehicle or a car with huge hidden problems. The feeling of insecurity is also what drove people to buying apartments instead of renting. But I heard that nowadays the 2nd-hand car market is much better regulated. And buying a 5-year old car is most often a good deal as car prices fall very steep for the first few years.

我认为你说的没错。5-10年前，我所认识的所有中国人都习惯性的购买新车。那是因为人们认为二手车市场不是很可靠。你可能花钱买到的是一辆偷来的车或者隐含严重问题的车。这种不安全感也导致人们买房而不是去租房。但是我听说现在二手车市场得到了更好的监管。购买一辆5年的二手车一般来说是一个好的交易，因为价格会便宜很多。