十年后中美会形成怎样的军事平衡？（下） [美国媒体]

What will the military balance between China and the U.S. look like in ten years?

十年后中美会形成怎样的军事平衡？（下）

J. Zhang
Answered Dec 11
In terms of procurement, there is a fair amount of visibility on both sides.

就采购而言，双方都有一定的可见度。

Navy: China will likely have 4–5 carrier battle groups by 2028. The US will likely have 11. China will likely substantially increase its number of strategic submarines given the massive investments made in recent years in submarine construction capacity. The overall size of the PLAN is not likely to increase much, but the quality of ships will improve substantially and basically match their US counterparts.

海军：到2028年中国可能拥有4-5个航母战斗群。美国会有11个。考虑到最近几年中国在潜艇制造能力上的大量投入，中国将大大增加自己的战略核潜艇数量。解放军海军的总体规模不会增加太多，但是船舰的质量会大大提升，基本可以比肩美国军舰。



Donald Molyneux, Father of Robert Molyneux, who got two Quora IDs
Answered Jan 5
The USA has its military-industrial complex (Thanks President Eisenhower) wagging the dog with its tail, and 51 governments loaded with geriatric white lawyers pissing on each others’ tents. (Ah LBJ, an oldie but a goodie.).

美国军工复合体狗尾续貂（多亏了艾森豪威尔总统），51个政府里的这些老旧白人律师们互相斗争。

China has a military-industrial complex doing what it is told by a single national government full of STEM experts, pissing outside the tent.

而中国的军工复合体只听从一个全国性的政府，而这个政府里都是一些理工科专家，一致对外。

The USA uses its military and its 600 or so foreign bases partly for employment, partly for pork barrelling, partly to destabilise enemies of Israel, partly to secure its oil supplies, and partly to prepare for Armageddon and The Rapture.

美国利用其军队和海外的600个左右的军事基地来进行一系列的任务，包括增加就业，政治分肥，打击以色列的敌人，保护自己的石油供给，以及准备世界大决战。



There are signs of civil unrest in the US at the moment, if that tension continues to grow, the US military may have to fight its own people.

目前有迹象表明美国会发生国内动乱，如果这个紧张局势继续发酵下去，美国军队的敌人将是自己的国民。

There are so many variables in play at the moment it is hard to say how things will work out for the US. The next president may take the domestic concerns more responsibly than the present one. He may decide the US military is wasting its time protecting the world from the phantom menace when the people in the US have more important needs that must be filled.

现在有很多变量，很难说美国接下来会遇到什么情况。下一任的美国总统可能会更加严肃的对待国内情况。他可能会觉得美国军队保护世界是在浪费时间，美国国内有更紧迫的问题需要解决。

The federal debt alone is reaching 22 trillion dollars. How much debt can be piled on before faith in the USD is lost.

单单是联邦债务已经达到22万亿美元。在人们对美元失去信心之前，美国还可以举债多少。

China is slowly building its military and even at the moment it is too big and dangerous for the US to arbitrarily attack it, so in tens years it will be totally untouchable just doing what it is doing..

中国在慢慢建设自己的军队，即使是现在，美国也不敢攻击中国。



By 2030, China's military strength will be greatly enhanced. Many aspects can be equal to the United States and even surpass the United States. For example, missiles have already surpassed the United States in some respects. By 2020, China is likely to have 5-6 aircraft carriers (currently China has two ships, and at least one is already under construction). But China's aircraft carriers will not have as much displacement as the Ford, because China is more inclined to defend itself. The Air Force will also be greatly improved, because China has made great breakthroughs in terms of engines.

到2030年，中国的军事实力将大大加强。很多方面可比肩美国，甚至超越美国。比如导弹在某些方面已经超越美国。到2020年，中国将拥有5-6艘航母。但是中国航母的吞水量没有福特级那么大，因为中国主要是用来自卫。空军也将得到大大的加强，因为在引擎方面中国已经取得重大突破。