【上】中国将裁减一半陆军，增加海军和空军规模，作为“前所未有”战略转变的一部分 [美国媒体]

中国将裁减一半陆军，增加海军和空军规模，作为“前所未有”战略转变的一部分



Blue_flea
That’s not a small move. Holy crap.
They had, as of last year, an active army of 2,035,000 staff, and about 510k reserve.
Do they just kick half of them to the curb or move them to the other forces?

这可不是小动作。我的天啊。
截至去年，中国军队拥有203.5万名现役军人，以及大约51万名预备役军人。
这只是把其中的一半陆军踢到一旁，还是要把他们转移到其他力量中?



trk424552
In the nuclear sense, but its conventional military is not much better than Europe.
If China wanted to deploy outside its own borders the US would find it trivial to match the same amount of force.
The US has several times as many modern weapons. So China is essentially incapable of deploying unless it has US permission.

从核的角度来说，它的常规军事力量并不比欧洲强多少。
如果中国想要在境外部署军力，美国会发现，中国与之匹敌的军力是微不足道的。
美国拥有数倍于中国的现代武器。因此，除非得到美国的许可，中国基本上无法进行部署。

Comrade_writer
The nuclear arm is probably the worse part of the PLA, at least if you believe their official number of 400 nukes.
I think you underestimate the PLAN’s size.
A typical PLAN expeditionary deployment consist of 2 DDGs, 2 FFGs, 2 SSKs and a replenishment ship. That’s about as much firepower as the whole German navy. In the last few years, China built more ships than the entire Royal Navy.

核武器可能是中国人民解放军最糟糕的部分，如果你相信官方公布的400枚核武器的话。
我认为你低估了中国海军计划的规模。
典型的远征性部署计划包括2艘导弹驱逐舰、2艘导弹护卫舰、2艘柴电潜艇和一艘补给舰。这相当于整个德国海军的火力。在过去的几年里，中国建造的军舰比整个皇家海军还多。



Th3horus
Thats now how this works. India raises its forces in response to its threats, same with Vietnam. Everyone's priorities changed, now its controlling sea lanes to keep $$ flowing.
China is changing because it has to if wants to sustain its ambitions and assert power.

这就是现在的运作方式。印度和越南一样，为了应对威胁而增加军力。每个人的优先事项都改变了，现在它控制着海上航线，以保持美元的流动。
中国正在发生变化，因为它必须这样做——如果它想要维持自己的野心并维护自己的权力的话。

dunno_maybe_
Historically China's land enemies came from the direction of where Russia is in the form of nomadic hordes. India's on the other side of the Himalayas, and Vietnam's jungle guerrillas would get crushed by cavalry when they move further north into open ground.

从历史上看，中国的陆地敌人来自俄罗斯游牧民族的方向。印度在喜马拉雅山脉的另一边，越南的丛林游击队在向北挺进开阔地带时，会被装甲部队击溃。



trk424552
Ya, even if China had a Navy and Airforce equal to the US it would still have a massive disadvantage.
All of the regional strategic points are close to other nations, and the US doesnt have any choke points at all surrounding it.
Its impossible to stop US supply lines or cut off their ports because there is no choke points to cut off. While the Chinese supply lines have to pass through many choke points controlled by other countries.

是的，即使中国拥有与美国相当的海军和空军，它仍然会有巨大的劣势。
所有的区域战略要地都离其他国家很近，而美国在周边没有任何咽喉要道。
我们不可能阻止美国的供应线或切断他们的港口，因为没有咽喉要道可以切断。而中国的供应线必须经过许多由其他国家控制的要道。

China has a single rail line going to Russia, but this almost certainly cannot provide enough outside supplies, and would be easily severed because its impossible to defend such a wide space. A single cruise missile getting through could shut it down for weeks.
So China is at a huge strategic disadvantage even if it somehow managed to match the US.

中国只有一条通往俄罗斯的铁路，但这几乎肯定无法提供足够的外部供应，而且很容易被切断，因为它不可能保卫如此广阔的空间。一枚通过的巡航导弹可能会使其关闭数周。
因此，即使中国设法赶上了美国，它也处于巨大的战略劣势。



quantum_ai_machine
China is actually the biggest threat to Russia. I am sure the Europeans and even the Americans have zero interest in actually invading Russia. China on the other hand is already spreading its greedy tentacles into resource rich and sparsely populated Siberia.

中国实际上是俄罗斯最大的威胁。我敢肯定，欧洲人，甚至美国人对入侵俄罗斯毫无兴趣。另一方面，中国已经将贪婪的触角伸向资源丰富、人口稀少的西伯利亚。

Nik_Tesla
I mean, does China really plan on invading other countries the way the US and Russia do? I assumed they had retained a large army to prevent invasion and to prevent revolt. Navy and Airforce can help with preventing invasions, but they're not about to bomb protesters.

我的意思是，中国真的打算像美国和俄罗斯那样入侵其他国家吗?我以为他们保留了一支庞大的军队，以防止入侵和叛乱。海军和空军可以帮助阻止入侵，但他们不会轰炸抗议者。

eric2332
That's what superpowers do - use their "super" power to decide conflicts all the way on the other side of the world.

这就是超级大国所做的——用他们的“超级”力量来决定世界另一端的冲突。

Mozorelo
They generally do not but they did invade Tibet. There has also been a growing sentiment in Chinese leadership that Siberia is populated by Asians so it should be in China. If Russia will not submit to economic controls then they might see themselves invaded by China and they know it. Putin is focusing on the European theater but in the 2020s the backyard should be the main concern.

他们通常不入侵西藏，但他们确实入侵了。中国领导层也越来越多地认为，西伯利亚是亚洲人的聚居地，所以应该属于中国。如果俄罗斯不屈服于经济控制，他们可能会看到自己被中国侵略，他们知道这一点。普京关注的是欧洲舞台，但在本世纪20年代，后院问题应该是主要问题。



SlantViews
From China's point of view it absolutely made sense. Their whole goal was to consolidate China (and Taiwan) and shape their immediate sphere of influence. I used to say China isn't a threat because they are not expansionist by nature. It's against their whole way of thinking and their culture to expand much further than they already are. It's a massive country as it is.Alas, this change, however, seems to indicate a shift in that policy. I still maintain that China is not expansionist, but I suppose they will want to use the world as their playground much like the US does. It seems my friend was right, China and the US is the new rivalry... I had hoped humanity would've learned. Cold War 2, here we go...

从中国的角度来看，这完全说得通。他们的全部目标是巩固中国(和台湾)，形成他们直接的势力范围。我过去常说中国不是威胁，因为他们本质上不是扩张主义者。他们的整个思维方式和文化都不允许他们进一步扩张。这是一个幅员辽阔的国家。然而，令人遗憾的是，这一变化似乎表明这一政策的转变。我仍然认为中国不是扩张主义者，但我认为他们会像美国一样，把世界当作自己的游乐场。看来我的朋友是对的，中国和美国是新的竞争对手……我希望人类能长点心。第二次冷战要开始了…