谁来为山姆大叔的赤字买单？ [美国媒体]

Who Pays for Uncle Sam’s Deficits?

谁来为山姆大叔的赤字买单？



美国联邦债务占GDP的109%，而且还在上升，低风险利率不会永远持续下去。

UnitedStates President Donald Trump continues to make a big deal of American tradedeficits with China despite such bilateral deficits or surpluses beingirrelevant. They are irrelevant in part because a significant amount of whatAmericans buy from China includes components imported by China from othercountries. However, what should Americans think about the more important globalU.S. trade deficit in April 2018 of $573 billion, up from $520 billion theprevious year from May 2016-April 2017? What would happen if the United Statescould get rid of it and how might America do that?

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普继续大肆渲染美国对中国的贸易逆差，尽管这种双边逆差或顺差无关紧要。它们之所以无关紧要，部分原因在于，美国人从中国购买的产品中，有很大一部分包括中国从其他国家进口的零部件。然而，美国人应该如何看待美国2018年4月5,730亿美元的全球贸易逆差呢?如果美国可以摆脱它会发生什么，美国又将如何做?



The U.S. fiscal deficit (which is the flowof new debt per period) was $666 billion—3.5% of GDP—for the Financial Year2017, which ended in September. If America's budget balances over the businesscycle as it should, the United States should have had a surplus of about thatmuch at this point because the economy is fully employed. The forecast deficitfor 2019 and beyond is one trillion dollars per year as far as the eye can seeeven with a Republican Congress and Administration. This is not sustainable andwill eventually collapse of its own weight.

截至今年9月的2017财年，美国财政赤字(即每一时期的新债务流动)为6660亿美元，占gdp的3.5%。如果美国的预算平衡在商业周期中是应该的，美国应该有大约这么多的盈余，因为经济是充分就业的。即使是在共和党控制国会和政府的情况下，预计2019年及以后的赤字每年也将达到一万亿美元。这是不可持续的，最终会自食其国。

Moneyspent by the government is at the expense of the other ways that money couldhave been used. Usually, the money government spends is taken away from otherwould-be uses by taxing the public and using those taxes to finance theirspending. Unfortunately, this is not normal anymore, and instead, the U.S.spends more than its tax revenue. This means that the money borrowed to coverdeficit spending is also taken away from other uses. To see the relationshipbetween U.S. trade deficits and fiscal deficits, Americans need to review whopays for these government expenditures not financed by tax revenue—who financesU.S. deficits?

政府所花的钱是以其他可能使用的方式为代价的。通常，政府支出的钱通过向公众征税并利用这些税收为他们的支出提供资金，从其他可能的用途中被拿走。不幸的是，这已不再是常态，相反，美国的支出超过了税收。这意味着，为弥补赤字支出而借入的资金也会从其他用途中被拿走。要了解美国贸易赤字和财政赤字之间的关系，美国人需要审查谁为这些政府支出埋单，而不是由税收收入埋单——那么，谁为美国赤字埋单?



So who put up the money topay for the U.S. government's spending in excess of its tax revenue? The answeris foreigners did—including China. How do foreigners get the dollars they needto invest in America., including in U.S. treasury debt? To accumulate thesedollars, foreign countries must have a trade surplus by selling more to theUnited States than they buy from America. They can also receive these dollarsas investments from the U.S. in the form of capital outflow. For instance, inthe fiscal year 2017, the United States had a trade deficit of around $550billion dollars, and in 2016 it was $502 billion. As mentioned, America'sfiscal deficit this last year was $666 billion dollars, and in 2016 it was 585billion. Thus most of the financing of U.S. fiscal deficit came from America'strade deficit with the rest of the world. Steve Hanke of Johns HopkinsUniversity has summarized these data annually for the last 41 years in a handy table .

那么，谁拿出这笔钱来支付美国政府超出税收收入的开支呢?答案是外国人有，包括中国。外国人如何获得在美国投资所需的美元，包括美国国债? 为了积累这些美元，外国必须通过向美国出售比从美国购买更多的东西来实现贸易顺差。他们也可以以资本外流的形式从美国获得这些美元作为投资。例如，在2017财年，美国的贸易赤字约为5500亿美元，而2016年为5020亿美元。如前所述，美国去年的财政赤字为6660亿美元，2016年为5850亿美元。因此，美国财政赤字的大部分资金来自美国对世界其他国家的贸易赤字。约翰霍普金斯大学的史蒂夫汉克在一张方便的表格中，总结了过去41年的这些数据。

IfPresident Trump wants to reduce America's trade deficit with the rest of theworld then bilateral deficits—such as with China—are irrelevant as only theglobal total matters. Trump and America's spendthrift Congress should reducethe U.S. fiscal deficit. This is badly needed, whatever America's trade deficitis. The U.S. economy adjusts at all margins (interest rates, exchange rates,etc.) until the governments financing needs are met. In fact, as I've notedearlier, America should actually be running a fiscal surplus in this fullemployment phase of the business cycle.

如果特朗普总统想要减少美国对世界其他国家的贸易赤字，也就是双边赤字——比如对中国的赤字。川普和美国挥霍无度的国会应该减少美国的财政赤字。无论美国的贸易赤字是多少，这都是迫切需要的。美国经济在满足政府的融资需求之前，会以各种幅度(利率、汇率等)进行调整。事实上，正如我之前提到的，在商业周期的充分就业阶段，美国实际上应该保持财政盈余。



While governmentsgenerally accumulate foreign exchange reserves for the usual precautionaryreasons, it is also true that some have gathered more than can be justified forpreventive purposes. For example, in the early 2000s, China intervenedmassively in the foreign exchange market to prevent its currency fromappreciating, which would have made China's exports more expensive in the U.S.and its imports cheaper in U.S. dollar terms. By 2007 China had a currentaccount surplus that was 10% of its GDP. As a result of this mercantilist,export promotion policy China's foreign exchange reserves skyrocketed from lessthan $0.2 trillion U.S. in 2000 to around $4.0 trillion in 2014. As a result ofsignificant capital outflows from China, last year its foreign exchangereserves fell from $4 trillion to $3 trillion by the beginning of this year asit intervened in the reverse direction to prevent its currency fromdepreciating. In fact, in the first quarter of 2018 China had its first currentaccount deficit since joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001.

虽然各国政府一般是出于通常的未雨绸缪而积累外汇储备的，但也有一些国家积累的外汇储备超过了出于预防目的而有理由积累的数额。例如，在21世纪初，中国大规模干预外汇市场，以阻止人民币升值，这将使中国的出口产品在美国更贵，进口产品以美元计算更便宜。（注：人民币相对美元贬值，理论上应该是使得中国产品在美国更便宜，使得美国货在中国更贵才对，但原文是这样的，这里读者自行甄别。）
到2007年，中国的经常账户盈余占GDP的10%。由于这种重商主义，中国的出口促进政策使中国的外汇储备从2000年的不足0.2万亿美元飙升到2014年的约4.0万亿美元。由于大量资本流出中国，去年中国的外汇储备从4万亿美元降至3万亿美元，原因是中国采取了相反的干预措施，以防止人民币贬值。事实上，在2018年第一季度，中国出现了自2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)以来的首次经常账户赤字。

Therefore, in addition toreducing deficits, and strengthening enforcement of the rules of the WTO onChina, the international monetary system would benefit from replacing dollars as the primary international foreign exchange reserveasset with the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights.

因此，除了减少赤字和加强对中国执行WTO规则之外，国际货币体系还将在用IMF的特别提款权取代美元，以作为主要国际外汇储备资产时受益。

Jeff Herman
Ah quit your whining, Japan has a debt to GDP ratio of 250% andall seems well over there$^%%&^(*^&#%$&!!!
Between Japan and the EU, they will print plenty to buy our debt, and if theFED must, they can print $5 trillion more.
As they say, don't fight the FEDS!!!

别发牢骚了，日本的债务占GDP的比例是250%，但一切看起来都很好！
在日本和欧盟，他们会印很多钱来购买我们的债务，如果美联储必须这么做，他们可以再印5万亿美元。就像他们说的，不要和联邦政府作对!!



sam101200
Don't expect Trump supporters to understand that, so don'texpect Trump to care.

别指望特朗普的支持者理解这一点，所以别指望特朗普会在乎。