中俄长期合作的可能性不大 [美国媒体]

Unlikely Prospect of Long-Term Sino-Russian Cooperation

中俄长期合作的可能性不大

Excerpt: The 2017 National Security Strategy states that the United States is in a Great Power competition with China and Russia. In January 2019 the Director of National Intelligence unveiled the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the United States Intelligence Community which states that, “China and Russia are more aligned than at any point since the mid-1950s, and the relationship is likely to strengthen in the coming year as some of their interests and threat perceptions converge.” However, concerns over long-term Sino-Russian cooperation are largely exaggerated based on several sources of growing divergence. The confluence of historical territorial strains over Outer Manchuria, Chinese and Russian demographic shifts, Chinese immigration into Siberia, conflicting interests with China’s One Belt, One Road initiative, and water scarcity issues in China are all areas of divergence that make the prospect of long-term Sino-Russian cooperation an unlikely development in the emerging security environment.

摘要: 《2017年国家安全战略》指出，美国正与中国和俄罗斯展开大国竞争。2019年1月，国家情报局局长公布了美国情报界的全球威胁评估报告，该报告指出，“中国和俄罗斯的关系比上世纪50年代中期以来的任何时候都更加紧密，随着两国的一些利益和对威胁的看法趋于一致，两国关系很可能在未来一年得到加强。”然而，由于分歧日益扩大，对中俄长期合作的担忧在很大程度上被夸大了。因外满洲领土产生的紧张关系、中国和俄罗斯的人口变化、中国人移民到西伯利亚、与中国一带一路倡议的利益冲突、中国的水缺乏问题等等综合在一起，使得中俄长期合作的前景在新兴的安全环境中不太可能得到发展。



There is a growing popularity within Chinese online literature that emphasizes territorial expansion into the East and South China Seas, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Siberia which advocate for colonialist practices as a means of revitalizing China. The foreign policy implications that these trends may have on the stability of the Asia-Pacific region are troubling. The expansive nature of China’s territorial disputes is reflected in the following maps.

在中国的网络文学作品中，强调向中国东海、南海、东南亚、中亚和西伯利亚扩张领土的做法越来越受欢迎，这些作品主张将殖民主义行为作为振兴华夏的一种手段。这种趋势可能对亚太地区的稳定产生令人不安的外交政策影响。以下地图反映了中国领土争端的扩张性。



Despite this treaty of friendship and cooperation, there are indications of potential divergence between China and Russia. When President Xi Jinping took office, he declared his “Chinese Dream” to be “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” To achieve this goal, Dr. Graham Allison of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government believes China intends to restore the predominance it enjoyed in Asia before the West intruded by reestablishing control over the territories that the Communist Party considers to be “Greater China” and by recovering China’s historic sphere of influence along its borders and in its adjacent seas. Given Russia’s historical territorial acquisition of Outer Manchuria in the 19th century, it is understandable why Moscow remains concerned about China’s long-term strategic designs in the Russian Far East.

尽管签署了这项友好合作条约，但有迹象表明中国和俄罗斯之间可能存在分歧。中国主席上任时，把“中国梦”宣布为“中华民族的伟大复兴”。 为了实现这一目标，哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院的格雷厄姆•艾利森博士认为，中国打算通过重新控制“大中华区”的领土，以及恢复中国在其边境和邻近海域的历史势力范围，来恢复其在西方入侵之前在亚洲享有的主导地位。鉴于俄罗斯历史上在19世纪对外满洲的领土占领，莫斯科对中国在俄罗斯远东地区的长期战略规划仍感到担忧就可以理解了。

Chinese and Russian Demographic Shifts

3 中国和俄罗斯的人口变化

Alongside Chinese historical territorial claims to the Russian Far East, China is also experiencing demographic pressures that could further fuel its need to expand into Russian territories. The population of China (1.38 billion) dwarfs that of Russia (144 million) at nearly a 10 to 1 ratio. With around 8 million people living in 2.6 million square miles of territory, the Russian Far East is among the most vacant places on Earth, at a population density of 3.1 people per square mile, and it is growing emptier, as a national demographic collapse is underway in Russia. Meanwhile, across the border, the Chinese are rapidly outstripping the carrying capacity of their territory, while the Russian Far East is endowed with abundant natural resources such as oil, gas, coal, timber, and water, but lacks the labor and capitol to extract and develop these resources.

除了中国对俄罗斯远东地区的历史领土主张外，中国还面临人口压力，这可能进一步推动其向俄罗斯领土扩张的需求。中国(13.8亿)的人口让俄罗斯(1.44亿)的人口相形见绌，比例几乎是10:1。俄罗斯远东地区约有800万人居住在260万平方英里的土地上，是地球上最空旷的地区之一，人口密度为每平方英里3.1人，而且随着俄罗斯全国人口结构的崩溃，该地区正变得越来越空旷。与此同时，在边境另一边，中国人口的增长正在迅速超越其国土承载能力，而俄罗斯远东地区则拥有丰富的石油、天然气、煤炭、木材和水资源等自然资源，但缺乏开采和开发这些资源的劳动力和资本。



Chinese Immigration into Siberia

4 中国人移民到西伯利亚

Despite the 2001 Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship, the Kremlin remains concerned about Chinese immigration into Siberia. Estimates on the number of Chinese migrants presently in Russian Siberia range up to 500,000 in a region with a population of only 36 million Russians. Fears about Beijing’s long-term designs are resulting in strong anti-Chinese sentiments throughout the Russian Federation. A recent Russian film titled, A Deadly Friend, became an internet hit in 2015. The film claims China is preparing to invade the Russian Far East in a quest for territorial expansion. Chinese tanks could reach the city of Khabarovsk within 30 minutes overwhelming the second largest city in the Russian Far East after Vladivostok. Growing Chinese dominance in the region has some commentators calling it a geopolitical time bomb.

尽管2001年签署了《中俄友好条约》， 克里姆林宫仍然担心中国人移民到西伯利亚。据估计，目前在俄罗斯西伯利亚的中国移民人数多达50万，而该地区只有3600万俄罗斯人。对中国政府长期计划的担忧，导致俄罗斯联邦各地出现了强烈的反华情绪。一部名为《致命的朋友》的俄罗斯电影在2015年成为网络热门。这部电影称中国正准备入侵俄罗斯远东地区以寻求领土扩张。中国的坦克可以在30分钟内到达哈巴罗夫斯克，是俄罗斯远东地区仅次于海参崴的第二大城市。中国在该地区日益占据主导地位，一些评论家称之为地缘政治定时炸弹。



Russians are concerned about Chinese designs in the Russian Far East. Russian logic is that Beijing could decide to invade on the basis of Chinese historical and demographic claims. This philosophy is exactly the same as the one Russia adopted when it annexed Crimea. Russia is therefore contradicting its own policy by opposing China’s claim over the Russian Far East.

俄罗斯人担心中国在俄罗斯远东地区的规划。俄罗斯的逻辑是，北京可能会基于中国的历史和人口主张，决定入侵。这一理念与俄罗斯吞并克里米亚时的理念完全相同。因此，俄罗斯反对中国对俄罗斯远东地区的主权主张，与自己的政策相矛盾。

The local Russian population in the Russian Far East is nervous. The 2001 Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship has done little to reduce the fear that exists between the people who live in Russia and China’s border provinces. Meanwhile, Chinese children are being taught in school that the Russian provinces on the other side of the border, are Chinese. Chinese school textbooks teach them that they were stolen from China during the Century of Humiliation and that these territories will return to China one day in the future, just as Hong Kong and Macau did.

远东地区的当地俄罗斯人很不安。2001年签署的《中俄友好条约》几乎没有减轻生活在俄罗斯和中国边境省份的人们之间的恐惧。与此同时，中国的孩子们在学校里被告知，边境另一边的俄罗斯省份曾经是中国的。中国的教科书告诉他们，这些领土是在百年屈辱中被偷走的，将来有一天会回到中国，就像香港和澳门一样。



Presently, China holds the upper hand in the relationship with Russia, and this power asymmetry will continue to grow at Russia’s expense. Russia and China have more to gain from cooperation than outright competition. As China becomes more assertive in global affairs, its long-term ambitions with respect to Russia are unclear. China will determine the course for the Sino-Russian relationship while Russia will remain a reactive partner. The Sino-Russian relationship is complex, with mutual mistrust on both sides. Despite ambitions for cooperation, the likelihood of substantive results is uncertain, particularly in the Russian Far East and Central Asia.

目前，中国在与俄罗斯的关系中占上风，这种实力不对称将继续增长。俄罗斯和中国从合作中获得的好处大于直接竞争。随着中国在全球事务中变得更加自信，其对俄罗斯的长期抱负尚不明朗。中国将决定中俄关系的走向，俄罗斯仍将是一个处于被动地位的伙伴。

Beijing accommodates Russian sensitivities regarding the Belt and Road initiative, which promotes China’s economic dominance in Central Asia. Beijing coordinates most security issues in Eurasia with Moscow, although growing Chinese concerns about instability in Central Asia have increased Beijing’s attention to the region, which may cause friction with Moscow.

北京方面考虑到了俄罗斯对“一带一路”倡议的敏感性，该倡议旨在促进中国在中亚的经济主导地位。北京与莫斯科协调欧亚大陆的大多数安全问题，尽管中国对中亚不稳定的担忧日益加剧，加大了北京对该地区的关注，这可能会引发与莫斯科的摩擦。

Water Scarcity in China

6 中国水资源短缺

Water scarcity presents a looming crisis for China. Another developing trend that will have significant impact on the emerging security environment is the growing water scarcity in Asia. As depicted by the population density chart in Figure 4, China and India are the world’s two most populous countries comprising 40% of the world’s population. The preponderance of fresh water resources supporting human life in China and India are supplied from snowfall and glacial melt coming off of the Hindu Kush and Himalaya mountain ranges. Competition for access to these water resources have already resulted in the Sino-Indian border conflict



The impending water crisis in China will have ramifications far beyond China’s borders. Former Premier Wen Jiabao said that water shortages threatened the very survival of the Chinese nation. A water crisis in China could further fuel Chinese territorial expansion as the CCP seeks to secure water resources that will pacify its population and ensure regime stability. Bordering countries that have access to water resources include Russia to the north, and India, Bhutan, and Nepal to the South. China might soon find itself forced into wars of survival with neighboring countries based on the water scarcity trends that are presently looming on the horizon. Given the current overpopulation in southern Asia and ongoing competition over scarce water resources, China is more likely to turn its attention northward towards Mongolia and Russia. Considering that Mongolia has limited water resources, Russia will present the most likely target if the water resources within the present Chinese borders can no longer support its population demands.

中国即将到来的水资源危机将产生远远超出中国国界的影响。中国前总理说，水资源短缺威胁到中华民族的生存。中国的水危机可能进一步推动中国的领土扩张，因为中国寻求获得水资源，以安抚其人口并确保政权稳定。与水资源接壤的国家包括北部的俄罗斯、南部的印度、不丹和尼泊尔。基于目前迫在眉睫的水资源短缺趋势，中国可能很快就会发现自己被迫与邻国展开生存战争。鉴于南亚目前人口过剩，以及对稀缺水资源的持续竞争，中国更有可能将注意力转向北方的蒙古和俄罗斯。考虑到蒙古的水资源有限，如果目前中国境内的水资源无法满足其人口需求，俄罗斯将成为最有可能的目标。



Dr. Nikolas Gvosdev, a professor of national security studies at the United States Naval War College, suggests that a “Eurasian entente” between China and Russia is not historically determined and a Sino-Russian “Axis of Autocracies” that works to undermine the United States liberal world order is not a forgone conclusion. Despite recent examples of collaboration between the two powers, a sustained alliance between China and Russia is not inevitable.

美国海军战争学院国家安全研究教授尼古拉斯•格沃斯德夫博士认为，中俄之间的“欧亚友好关系”并不是历史性的，旨在破坏美国自由主义世界秩序的中俄“毒菜轴心”也不是必然的结果。尽管最近两国之间出现了合作的例子，但中俄之间的持续联盟并非不可避免。

The United States Intelligence Community’s 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment focuses on the convergence between China and Russia as they seek to reshape the international system and undermine the United States-led world order. From this perspective it is true that China and Russia are more aligned than at any point since the mid-1950s. However, long-term trends are also underway that will introduce systemic shocks and opportunities for divergence that test the Sino-Russian partnership. Without a common enemy, China and Russia are more predisposed to be rivals than allies. These points of divergence present opportunities for the United States and deserve a close examination by national strategic planners.

美国情报界2019年的全球威胁评估侧重于中俄之间的一致，因为他们试图重塑国际体系并破坏美国领导的世界秩序。从这个角度来看，中国和俄罗斯确实比上世纪50年代中期以来的任何时候都更加团结一致。然而，长期趋势也在形成，这将带来系统性冲击，并会考验中俄之间的伙伴关系。没有共同的敌人，中国和俄罗斯更倾向于成为对手，而不是盟友。这些分歧点为美国提供了机会，值得国家战略规划人员仔细研究。

future_strategery
This article points to a number factors that are likely to prevent long-term cooperation between China and Russia. Some of the major issues are focused on demographics and resources. China's population is growing while Russia's is declining and the corresponding resource needs will likely drive competition. For example, the author points to the resource rich Siberia (particularly in water) - it is sparsely populated and parts of it belonged to China little more than a century ago. With its growing need for fresh water, China might look north and it is not clear that Russia would be able to project enough power to the far east to stop them.

这篇文章指出了一些可能阻碍中俄长期合作的因素。一些主要问题集中在人口和资源方面。中国的人口在增长，而俄罗斯的人口在下降，相应的资源需求可能会推动竞争。例如，作者指出资源丰富的西伯利亚(尤其是在水资源方面)——它人口稀少，部分地区在一个多世纪前属于中国。随着中国对淡水需求的日益增长，中国可能会向北看，目前尚不清楚俄罗斯是否有能力向远东地区投放足够的实力来阻止它们。



HigherMeta
This is a poor article for a number of reasons, among which the most important are:
The author's use of sources. To justify the portrayal of China as an expansionist power, he quotes online literature. But the specific evidence of Chinese opinion that he uses are not drawn from Chinese government sources but from online fiction. Specifically, his claims of Chinese designs for territorial expansion are quoted near verbatim from the section on "history imagination novels" on the Chinese internet, with readers numbering from 1 to 3 million. Suffice to say, this is not acceptable evidence for trends in Chinese foreign policy.
For this reason, Chinese designs on the South China Sea should not be conflated with either a general policy of territorial expansion in all directions, or a specific design - or rather a lack of design - on Siberia and Outer Manchuria. Towards this end, the author presents no evidence whatsoever of Chinese revisionist ambitions toward Russian territory. It is correct to say that China is a revisionist power with respect to the international system; but it is not correct to say that this implies China is revisionist with respect to its relations with Russia.
The author then goes into demographics, seemingly forgetting that 1. China's population is set to decline due to the effects of low total fertility and the one child policy and 2. the climate in Siberia and Outer Manchuria are outside the optimal range for human habitation. Consequently, neither regions have historically hosted large populations or are preferred locations for colonization. Indeed, this is one reason Russia itself has historically had a difficult time filling in the land. Short of dramatic climate change, it is not likely that the Chinese would look to Russia for "living space."
To further emphasis this flaw in the author's thinking, recent studies of the Chinese migrant presence in the Far East and Siberia have indicated rather low numbers. To quote, "Most Western media refer to alarming figures, some concluding there are two million Chinese, set to reach 10 million by 2050. The latest Russian national census in 2010, however, projected the number of Chinese residents at 30,000. Regional official and academic data we uncovered, in several research trips to the Far East since 2010, estimates the number of Chinese migrants as between 400,000 and 550,000. More than half are in the European part of Russia, where the labour market is bigger and more dynamic than in the east of the Urals. The most Chinese-populated Russian city is Moscow, not Vladivostok or Khabarovsk." The Russian demographers are obviously not nearly as alarmed as Western media.
The author then goes into the Belt and Road Initiative, a legitimate area of Sino-Russian competition, but is forced to acknowledge that "Russia and China have more to gain from cooperation than outright competition" and that "Beijing accommodates Russian sensitivities regarding the Belt and Road initiative", effectively indicating that a breach in relations is far from certain or expected.
Finally, the author discusses China's water shortage, but entirely fails to explain how China would channel water through Mongolia - a large, arid country - from Siberia to North China, where its water shortage is most acute. Nor does he explain why Russia would not accommodate Chinese water needs, given its own abundance of the resource relative to its demographics. Where as water competition between China and India appear to be a significant, actual threat, water competition between China and Russia is more or less absurd. China will turn to Southeast Asia, India, Central Asia, and filtering its own contaminated water long before it turns to Russia for securing water resources.
It is often said that there are no permanent friends or enemies in geopolitics, and in this respect Sino-Russian cooperation cannot be taken for granted. But strategists, perhaps influenced by the school of Peter Zeihan, are too quick to play up geographical factors as though they override confluences of ideology and strategic necessity. Indeed, had this been the case, we'd expect Canada and the US to have much worse relations than they do, and we'd expect Europe to descend into war - any day now.
Obviously, there are factors just as important, or more important, than geography underlying the relations between countries. In the case of Russia and China, there is a wide convergence of ideological and strategic interests - both want to see the US's hegemony diminished. Neither trust the US more than they trust each other, and for this reason alone, we'd not expect them to get in bed with the US to subvert the other, since in a triangle relationship in which the goal is to maintain independence, it would make no sense for the two weaker parties to turn on each other, and in doing so give the stronger party an opportunity to wipe them both out. Then, there are nuclear weapons to think about, the threat of which will prevent China and Russia from engaging in existential conflicts for a long time to come.
For the above reasons and others, I do not believe that the long-term prospects of SIno-Russian relations are nearly as poor as the author portrays. Indeed, as long as the threat of US hegemony hangs over both of their heads, I consider cooperation a more likely mode of operation than conflict.

这是一篇糟糕的文章，原因有很多，其中最重要的是:
作者对资料来源的使用。为了证明中国是一个扩张主义国家，他使用了网络文学作品来做证据。但他使用的中国观点的具体证据并非来自中国政府，而是来自网络小说。具体来说，他关于中国领土扩张规划的主张几乎是从中国互联网上的“历史想象小说”上引用的，读者人数从100万到300万。这不是中国外交政策走向的可接受证据。



显然，国与国之间关系背后的地理因素很重要，但有一些因素同样重要，甚至更重要。就俄罗斯和中国而言，意识形态和战略利益有着广泛的一致——双方都希望看到美国霸权的削弱。别期待他们对美国的信任会超过彼此间的互信，也别期待他们会与美国合作去颠覆对方，因为在三足鼎立的关系中，保持独立才是目标，两个弱国互相开打没有意义，这样做会给强大的一方消灭他们的机会。其次，还有需要考虑核武器问题，核武器的威胁将使中国和俄罗斯在未来很长一段时间内无法进行生存冲突。

基于上述原因和其他原因，我认为中俄关系的长期前景并不像作者所描绘的那么糟糕。事实上，只要美国霸权的威胁笼罩在他们的头上，我认为合作比冲突更有可能。

Inshallahkbar
Russia commissioned a study in the 2000s that completely assuaged their fears of "Chinese settlers". There are more Chinese in Moscow than in the entire Russian far east.
This is logical following common sense. Why would Chinese people, living in a country that is rapidly developing, move to a desolate, undeveloped frozen wasteland that is already poor and has little prospect for growth? this stretches credulity.
Chinese people move south for better jobs and better climate, not north to be peasant farmers in Siberia. When I hear any article use this hypothetical as a barrier to Chinese Russian relations, it really diminishes the credibility of the author to me.

俄罗斯在2000年代委托进行了一项研究，彻底缓解了他们对“中国移民”的恐惧。莫斯科的中国人比整个俄罗斯远东地区的中国人还多。
这是符合常识的逻辑。为什么生活在一个快速发展的国家的中国人，会搬到一个荒凉的，未开发的冰冻荒原？那里已经很穷了，没有什么发展前景。这难以置信。
中国人向南迁移是为了更好的工作和更好的气候，不是为了向北迁移成为西伯利亚的农民。当我看到这篇文章把这个假设当作中俄关系的障碍时，我就怀疑作者的可信度了。

freedompolis
Not to mention the author have to bring in the mongols to justify a conflict between east asian and Russia. A lazy analysis overall.
I think the only thing this article illustrates is how much certain members of the US military really dislike China. One would expect a higher level of professionalism in a publication that is linked to the US Air Force.

更不用说作者把蒙古拉进来证明东亚和俄罗斯之间的冲突。这完全是懒惰的分析。
我认为，这篇文章唯一能说明的是，美国军方的某些成员有多么讨厌中国。一份与美国空军有关的出版物应该具备更高的专业水平。



Inshallahkbar
I didnt "forget any of this". If there was going to be mass migration it would have been 20 years ago when living standard in rural China was far lower than what it is now and the Russian government was in disarray.
Your explanations are very weak. Russia can control legal migration from work visas, that's a non factor. You forgot to explain why a Chinese from a 6k GDP region would migrate illegally to a 9k GDP foreign region with hostile climate vs a 15k GDP Chinese region. You probably cant explain it because it makes no sense, that's why this migration is virtually non existent. You also forget that this migration to Siberia only makes less and less sense as time goes on.

我没有“忘记这一切”。 如果有大规模的移民，那也是20年前，当时中国农村的生活水平远低于现在，俄罗斯政府也处于混乱状态。
你的解释很站不住脚。俄罗斯可以通过工作签证控制合法移民。你忘了解释为什么一个来自6千GDP地区的中国人会非法移民到一个气候恶劣的9千GDP的外国地区，而不是搬到1.5万GDP的中国地区去呢？你可能无法解释，因为这毫无意义，这就是为什么这种迁移实际上是不存在的。你也别忘了，随着时间的推移，这种迁往西伯利亚的行为只会变得越来越没有意义。