重建叙利亚：阿拉伯人和西方国家冲突不断的根源 [美国媒体]

The United States and its Arab allies are on a collision course over the reconstruction of Syria, where President Bashar al-Assad, bolstered by Russia and Iran, has emerged the victor in a devastating civil war.

在叙利亚重建问题上，美国及其阿拉伯盟友正在发生冲突。在俄罗斯和伊朗的支持下，叙利亚总统巴沙尔阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)在一场毁灭性的内战中取得了胜利。

With lucrative contracts on the line, Gulf states are lobbying Washington and Brussels to loosen sanctions and not ensnare Arab companies and investors looking to rebuild their neighbor.

由于利润丰厚的合同岌岌可危，海湾国家正在游说华盛顿和布鲁塞尔（比利时首都）放松制裁，不要让希望重建邻国的阿拉伯公司和投资者陷入困境。



ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
But it is the prospect of reconstruction after nearly eight years of war that has Arab governments, investors, and engineering firms lining up to court Damascus and be among the first to land a deal with Syrian partners.

经济机会：
但是，阿拉伯国家的政府、投资者和工程公司在经过近8年的战争后有望重建家园，因此纷纷向大马士革示好，成为首批与叙利亚合作伙伴达成协议的国家之一。

The opportunities are massive.

机会是巨大的。

Assad declared in December that rebuilding Syria would cost $400 billion, while some international analysts and organizations estimate the price tag at between $500 billion and $1 trillion.

阿萨德去年12月宣布，重建叙利亚将耗资4000亿美元，而一些国际分析人士和组织估计，重建的成本在5000亿美元到1万亿美元之间。



“But this will not be for free – it will be as a direct result of efforts by the Syrian regime to transition to a more peaceful system and reduce the influence of the Iranians.”

“但这不是免费的——这将是叙利亚政权向更和平体制过渡和减少伊朗影响的直接结果。”

In low-level delegations and unannounced diplomacy with regime officials, Arab governments, lawmakers, and investors are offering Damascus a marriage of Jordanian and Egyptian manpower and equipment with Gulf financing.

在低级别代表团以及与叙利亚政府官员、阿拉伯国家政府、议员和投资者的秘密外交活动中，叙利亚政府向约旦和埃及提供的人力和设备与海湾国家提供的资金相结合。

With Russia’s limited economic resources and Iran facing stronger US sanctions, many both in Damascus and in the Gulf believe that this arrangement is the best, perhaps only, option for a successful and speedy rebuild of Syria.

在俄罗斯经济资源有限、伊朗面临美国更严厉制裁的情况下，大马士革和海湾地区的许多人都认为，这种安排是叙利亚成功、迅速重建的最佳(或许是唯一)选择。



Yet the reconstruction drive is set to hit a substantial roadblock: Western sanctions.

然而，重建努力将遇到一个重大障碍：西方的制裁。

The US, which provided training and support for anti-Assad rebels in the civil war and at one point openly called for Assad to step down, has long had a comprehensive list of regime officials, businessmen, and companies tied to Assad on its sanctions list, and has barred US citizens from directly or indirectly being involved in any transaction or sale to Syria.

美国曾在内战中为反阿萨德叛军提供培训和支持，并曾公开呼吁阿萨德下台。长期以来，美国制裁名单上一直有一份全面的政权官员、商人和与阿萨德有关联的公司的名单，并禁止美国公民直接或间接参与任何对叙利亚的交易或销售。



As the Syrian regime dominates the private sector and any medium to large-scale project will require some involvement by the government, such sanctions will likely scare off many investors.

由于叙利亚政权控制着私营部门，任何中型到大型项目都需要政府的参与，此类制裁可能会吓跑许多投资者。

However, with Russia remaining as the main powerbroker in Syria, many Arab firms are set to carry on with their plans with the coordination and support from Moscow.

然而，由于俄罗斯仍然是叙利亚的主要权力掮客，在莫斯科的协调和支持下，许多阿拉伯公司准备继续他们的计划。

“Arab companies that do not have assets in the US may pursue projects with the help of the Russians and the Chinese, but this slowdown will prevent the massive effort needed to rebuild Syria,” says Mr. Kahwaji, the Emirati analyst.

“在美国没有资产的阿拉伯公司可能会在俄罗斯和中国的帮助下寻求项目，但这种放缓将阻止重建叙利亚所需的大规模努力，”阿联酋分析师卡瓦吉说。

In Jordan, many construction firms and importers are without ties to US companies or US assets and are willing to take the risk in order to get badly needed contracts in Syria, betting that Washington would not go out of its way to target small companies in Jordan.

在约旦，许多建筑公司和进口商与美国公司或美国资产没有关系，他们愿意冒险，以获得叙利亚亟需的合同，押注美国政府不会特意针对约旦的小公司。



Jordan, meanwhile, has been arguing to the US that economic access to Syria’s reconstruction would be vital to the economic stability of the kingdom – which lost hundreds of millions of dollars and hosted more than 1 million refugees because of the war.

与此同时，约旦一直在向美国辩称，叙利亚重建的经济通道对该国的经济稳定至关重要。由于战争，约旦损失了数亿美元，收容了100多万难民。

“We are sending the message to our allies in the US and Europe: Syria is a doorway to the world for us, do not prevent us from opening it,” says Qais Zayadin, a Jordanian member of parliament who recently met with Assad in Damascus as part of a Jordanian parliamentary delegation.

“我们正在向我们在美国和欧洲的盟友传递信息：叙利亚是我们通往世界的大门，不要阻止我们打开它，”约旦国会议员卡伊斯·扎亚丁(Qais Zayadin)表示。他最近作为约旦议会代表团的一员在大马士革会见了阿萨德。

“Our Western allies have to give us leeway: You are tens of thousands of miles away, you can afford not to have a relationship with Syria. We do not have this luxury.”

“我们的西方盟友必须给我们留有余地：你们远在数万英里之外，不与叙利亚建立关系是负担得起的。我们可没这么奢侈。”

Daniel
Assad saved his Alawe minority as well as Christian, Sufi, Druses, Sabaean and many more, from certain death at the hands of Sunni Radicals.
Alawe do not cover, drink, and never followed Sharia, they are, the so much look after, Moderated Muslim, the women go to hairdressers!

阿萨德拯救了他那令人敬畏的少数派，以及基督教、苏菲派、德鲁斯派、萨拜安派和许多其他教派，使他们免于死于逊尼派激进分子之手。阿拉维不敷衍，不喝酒，也从来不遵循伊斯兰教法，他们都是善解人意、温和的穆斯林，妇女都能去理发店！

Roger47
The side we backed lost. We need to accept that and move forward from here. Sometimes the world is better off with terrible people in power, and stability in a region, compared to weak leaders and revolutionary groups trying to overthrow them. Our top goals should be stability in the region, with strong governments that are willing to keep terrorist groups out. If a strong Assad government can keep ISIS and other such groups out of Syria, we should be helping them.

我们支持的一方输了。我们需要接受这一点，并从这里继续前进。有时，与试图推翻他们的软弱领导人和革命团体相比，一个可怕的掌权者和一个地区的稳定，世界反而会变得更好。我们的首要目标应该是该地区的稳定，和一个愿意将恐怖组织拒之门外的强大政府。如果一个强大的阿萨德政府能够将ISIS和其他此类组织赶出叙利亚，我们就应该帮助他们。



michael
How is all this rebuilding to be paid for? Syria has a pretty small oil industry which cannot generate 500 billion much less 1 trillion in profits to pay for the rebuilding? As to the USA sanctions the arabs will simply stop trading with the USA ,cut off the oil and the lights go out at least in the short run. The US congress is responding to the zionist lobby which wants Assad dead and the country in ruins. We need to give the zionist lobby the finger and get out of the business of telling foreign countries how to run themselves.

如何支付所有这些重建的费用呢?叙利亚的石油工业规模很小，无法创造5000亿美元的利润，更不用说1万亿美元的重建资金了。
至于美国的制裁，阿拉伯人只会停止与美国的贸易，切断石油供应，至少在短期内能源会匮乏。美国国会正在对犹太复国主义游说集团做出回应，他们希望阿萨德死亡，国家成为废墟。我们需要对犹太复国主义游说集团竖起中指，不要再告诉外国如何管理自己了。