美版知乎：到2050年，哪个国家会是全球第一经济强国

Which country will be the world's leading economic power in 2050 and why?

到2050年，哪个国家会是全球第一经济强国，为什么？

以下是Quora读者的评论：

Bob Reisner, CEO at Nassau Business Funding & Services, Inc. (1999-present)

For reasons you might not expect, the USA might remain the most powerful country in the world well past the turn of the next century!

There is a revolution about to happen and it might turn out that the USA is the only country of size that will survive the change. Computer hardware and software expressed as Artificial Intelligence is going to crash non government paid employment.

We can see now that Autonomous Vehicles will replace truck drivers and warehouse workers. Retail (including food service) is being crushed with the combination of internet purchase/delivery and retail stores that will not require significant staffs (see Amazon no checkout stores). The workers who sit behind desks and perform routine tasks requiring moderate to skilled judgments will be replaced by AI. Assistants to skilled and critical knowledge workers will largely disappear as well. And of course manufacturing will continue to be automated and sometimes completely replaced (like 3D manufacturing). And government jobs will also be subject to these trends. Armies will become ‘robotized’ and weapons will become extremely ‘smart’ and extremely efficient. And medical advances will be astounding.

即便在进入下个世纪很久之后，美国仍然可能是世界上最强大的国家，原因你可能想不到！

一场革命即将发生，结果可能是：美国是唯一一个能在这场变革中幸存下来的大国。以人工智能的形式出现的计算机硬件和软件将会摧毁非政府部门的有偿就业。

我们现在就可以看到，自动驾驶汽车将取代卡车司机和仓库工人。零售(包括食品服务)正被网络购买/配送和不需要大量员工的零售商店(如亚马逊的无收银台商店)的结合逐步压垮。人工智能将取代坐在办公桌前、执行需要中等至熟练操作的日常任务的工作者。具备熟练和关键知识的工作者的助理也将基本上消失。当然，制造业将进一步自动化，也许某天甚至被完全取代(比如3D制造)。政府部门的工作也将受到这些趋势的影响。军队将“机器人化”，武器将变得极其“智能”、极其高效。医学将取得惊人的进步。

We look at the world and progress as linear. For the last 150 years progress hasn’t been linear, it’s exponential. The changes we’ve seen will continue and at a higher rate. Energy will be near free (project natural gas from the last 20 years to the next 50+), ditto food and other essentials. We are going to see massive deflation…a 40+ year ‘slow’ crash.

And the effects will be crushing for most of the world. The USA is likely the only large country that might be able to make it through this transition. In the first world, 40% to 60% of employment might disappear. Even worse in the second world because labor rate differentials will be irrelevant. In the third world, total collapse. The third world will never get a chance to use it’s cheap labor to climb the economic and social ladder. For most of the world the future looks worse than this:

我们把世界和进步看作是线性的发展。过去的150年里进步不是线性的，而是指数式的。我们所看到的变化将继续下去，而且以更高的速度发生。能源将趋于免费(过去20年到未来50年的天然气项目)，食品和其他生活必需品也是如此。我们将见证大规模的通货紧缩……一场持续40多年的“缓慢”崩溃

对世界大部分地区来说，其影响将是毁灭性的。美国可能是唯一一个有能力完成这一转变的大国。在第一世界，40%到60%的就业机会可能会消失。在第二世界甚至更糟，因为劳动报酬差异将无关紧要。第三世界则完全崩溃。第三世界永远没有机会利用它的廉价劳动力来攀登经济和社会阶梯。对于世界上大多数人而言，未来看起来比这更糟糕：

 

 

Aditya Jaya Lauson, Entrepreneur

As much as any loyal countryman wants his/her country to lead, there’s only one contender : China

For these reasons :

China has demonstrated the capability to innovate

I’ve heard a saying here in Quora that says :

The Google of India is Google, the Amazon of India is Amazon, the WhatsApp of India is WhatsApp. However, the Google of China is Baidu, the Amazon of China is Alibaba, the Whatsapp of China is Wechat

Soon the Intel of China, the AMD of China, the Tesla of China, will make their way towards world stage.

Yes, a part of that comes from forced technology transfer and reverse engineering. But those who say China can only copy, not invent, has somehow forgotten that the Chinese has always been great inventors, or probably they have never heard anything about “Four Great Inventions of China” or “John Bull”.

Truthfully, forced technology transfer and reverse engineering is not new. What’s new in China is, they can manufacture it at half the time, and a quarter of the cost.

任何爱国的国民都希望自己的国家能领先，竞争者只有一个：中国。

原因如下：

中国展示出了创新的能力

我在Quora上听到过这样一句话：

印度的谷歌就是谷歌，印度的亚马逊就是亚马逊，印度的WhatsApp就是WhatsApp。而中国的谷歌是百度，中国的亚马逊是阿里巴巴，中国的Whatsapp是微信。

不久后，中国的英特尔、中国的AMD、中国的特斯拉也将登上世界舞台。

是的，其中有部分来自强制的技术转让和逆向工程。但那些说中国只会抄袭，不会发明的人，大概忘记了，中国人一直都是伟大的发明家，也许他们从来没有听说过“中国四大发明”或“约翰牛”吧。

事实上，强制技术转移和逆向工程并非新鲜事。在中国的新情况是，他们可以只用一半的时间和四分之一的成本制造出来。

China has infrastructure like no other

In simplest analogy possible : 4,000 years ago someone owned 500 goats, because, well that’s as much goat milk he can sell to his village. Then someone invented the wheel, enabling him to sell 10x as much goat milk to 10 other villages.

If technology is the height of the sky scrapper, infrastructure is the foundation upon which wealth is build. In this part i will let pictures speak for themselves with as little explanation about the building as possible.

55 kilometers sea crossing bridge

Actually, 41 out of 50 highest bridges in the world are in China.

19 Gigawatts dam (Great Brittain’s power capacity is 97 Gigawatts)

Largest port in the world. 7 out of 10 largest ports in the world belongs to China + Taiwan + HK.

Due to treacherous mountainous terrain, as of 2019, China build 4,000+ km of expressway like this just in Gansu province so Chinese can drive 120km/h on it. 350km/h high speed railway will be build after that.

中国拥有独一无二的基础设施

举个最简单的例子：4000年前，某人养了500只山羊，因为他最多只能卖给村民这么多羊奶了。后来有人发明了车子，令他能够向其他10个村庄出售10倍的羊奶。

如果说技术是穹顶，那么基础设施就是建立财富的基础。在这一部分，我会让图片自己说话，尽可能少的解释。

55公里跨海大桥

事实上，全世界50座最高的桥中有41座在中国。

190亿瓦大坝(英国的发电能力是97亿瓦)

世界上最大的港口。全世界10个最大的港口中有7个属于中国、台湾和香港。

由于危险的山区地形，截止2019年，中国仅在甘肃省就修建了4000多公里这样的高速公路，这样中国人就可以在这样的高速路上以120公里/小时的速度行驶。随后他们还将修建时速350公里的高速铁路。

China has lifted poverty like no other

No country has lifted half poverty in less than 50 years. Except… China, who lift 88% people out of poverty from 1981… To 0.7% in 2015.

Again, simple analogy works here. GDP growth is defined as follows :

Growth = Consumption + Exports - Imports + Government Spending

With the exception of few economies, consumption is always the largest contributor. Especially if they have at least one billion citizen!

Any country that takes the lead must have the power to redistribute its wealth to citizens, increasing their welfare, and resulting in higher consumption. Poverty is a trap, and is severely hard to escape from. So in most cases, the responsibility relies on the government. Poverty is a very chronic sign of a country’s lack of ability or interest to increase consumption.

中国消除了贫困，令其他国家望其项背

没有一个国家能在不到50年的时间里让一半的贫困人口脱贫。除了中国，从1981年开始，中国带领88%贫困人口脱贫，2015年贫困人口仅占0.7%。

同样，这里还有一个简单的类比。GDP增长的定义如下:

增长=消费+出口-进口+政府支出

除了少数经济体，消费一直是最大的贡献者。特别是如果他们至少有10亿公民的话！

任何率先采取行动的国家都必须有能力将其财富重新分配给公民，提高他们的福利，并促进消费。贫穷是一个难以摆脱的陷阱。大多数情况下，这项重任都依赖政府来解决。贫困是一个国家缺乏能力或兴趣来增加消费的长期表现。

End of the answer

The entire answer absolutely does not imply that China is superior as a country neither does it imply other countries as inferior. Each country is great in their own way, and has the potential to greatness.

It is just that China has progressed far enough, and has sufficient means to lead the economy of the world in 2050.

答案的结尾

整个答案绝对没有暗示中国是一个优秀国家的意图，也没有贬损其他国家的意图。每个国家都以自己的方式伟大，都有极大的潜力。

只是中国取得了足够的进步，有足够的能力在2050年引领世界经济。

 译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50097.html 译者：Joyceliu

 

Brody Fletcher

Let’s run down the possible contenders…

10. Russia: LOL …Odds: 50-to-1
11. Brazil: They always seem to be right on the verge of getting their act together (a huge population, a young population, diversity, loads of commodities making them one of the most resource rich nations on the planet), but are always falling apart on a corruption scandal. Odds: 30-to-1
12. India: Certainly a major contender—a population that could surpass China to be number one soon. Nuclear power, and at least some technical skills (America imports huge numbers of Indian tech workers). The only problem is that same massive population could easily run out of food if climate crisis wreaks the level of havoc many prognosticators expect. Mass unrest and sectarian conflict could follow since India’s religious factions hate each other on a level that would make America’s racial tensions look like nothing. Odds: 15-to-1

让我们找出可能的竞争者…

10. 俄罗斯：哈哈…胜算：50比1
11. 巴西：他们似乎一直想要齐心协力(庞大的人口、年轻的人口、多样性、大量的商品使他们成为地球上资源最丰富的国家之一)，但总是因为腐败丑闻而崩溃。胜算：30比1
12. 印度：绝对是个主要的竞争对手——其人口将很快超过中国成为世界第一人口大国。有核武器，还有一些技术技能(美国从印度引入了大量的技术工人)。唯一的问题是，如果气候危机真的严重到许多预言家预测的那样，那么如此大规模的人口很可能会耗尽粮食。大规模的骚乱和教派冲突可能随之而来，因为印度的宗教派别之间的相互仇恨达到了让美国的种族紧张关系看起来都显得不值一提的程度。胜算：15比1。

6 & 7. France and England: Two former empires whose best days seem behind them, but both are nuclear powered nations that have a lot more going for them than most of Europe. With some competent political leadership, they could make great strides, BUT their populations are so relatively small, it’s hard to imagine they’ll ever be the “world’s biggest anything” again. Odds: 15–to-1

5.Israel: Laugh all you want, but Israel has an absolutely booming tech sector. Since I believe tech is the future and no country will have a truly great economy without it, that is a huge deal. They have to get their unrest with Palestine settled, but Israel is making inroads with their neighbors everyday (relations with Saudi have never been better). If the current Iranian regime and theocratic set-up falls apart, they’ll get even bigger. The biggest problem is their relatively tiny population, and land area. Odds: 10-to-1

6 & 7. 法国和英国：这两个昔日帝国的鼎盛时期似乎已经过去，但它们都是核能国家，比大多数欧洲国家拥有更多的优势。在一些有能力的政治领导下，他们可以取得巨大的进步，但他们的人口相对较少，很难想象他们能再次获得“全球最大”的头衔。胜算：15比1。

5. 以色列：想笑就尽管笑吧，但以色列的科技产业绝对是蓬勃发展的。我相信科技就是未来，没有科技，任何国家都不会有真正伟大的经济，这是一件大事。他们必须解决与巴勒斯坦的冲突，但以色列每天都在与邻国发生冲突(与沙特的关系从未改善)。如果现在的伊朗政权和神权政体崩溃，他们会变得更强大。最大的问题是他们相对较少的人口和土地面积。胜算：10比1。
6. Germany: A bigger population than England or France, and a bigger economy too. A thriving tech sector that will only grow from here, and everyone knows that if you want complex machinery built on a mass scale, you can’t beat German engineering. I just wish they weren’t facing extreme hostility from Russia (which is relatively close) and the lingering instability from Syria. Odds: 8-to-1
7. Japan: Many people don’t realize that Japan is the world’s third biggest economy after China and the US. They also have an extraordinarily capable, technocratic government—which NEITHER the United States nor China has—that can respond to big crisis. And their technological sector is positively robust, and I believe they’ll crack true AI first. The biggest problems are possibly getting hammered by climate crisis (island nations may not be where you want to invest in the future) and an abysmal birthrate. Many younger Japanese women are absolutely disgusted with the idea of physical sex, and the government is so concerned with the low birthrate they’re practically paying people to have kids. If you believe people are a resource (and I do) that doesn’t look great for the future. Odds: 6–to-1
8. China: I know that being a “China Bull” talking about the demise of the American superpower is an extremely fashionable position on the world stage.
9. 德国：人口比英国和法国多，经济规模也更大。一个蓬勃发展的科技行业只会从这里发展起来，每个人都知道，如果你想大规模制造复杂的机械，德国的工程技术是无人能敌的。但我希望他们没有面临来自俄罗斯(相对较近)的极端敌意，以及叙利亚挥之不去的动荡局面。胜算：8比1。
10. 日本：很多人没有意识到日本是世界第三大经济体，仅次于中国和美国。他们还有一个非常有能力的技术官僚政府——这是美国和中国都没有的——能够应对重大危机。他们的科技部门非常强劲，我相信他们会率先解决真正的人工智能。最大的问题可能是气候危机(岛屿国家可能不是你未来想投资的地方)和糟糕的出生率。许多年轻的日本女性对性行为非常反感，政府非常担心低出生率，甚至付钱让人们生孩子。如果你认为人口是一种资源(我也是这样认为的)，这对未来来说并不是什么好事。胜算：6:1。
11. 中国：我知道，在讨论美国超级大国的灭亡时，“中国牛”是世界舞台上非常时髦的立场。

 

Sami Aetius, Lawyer

A lot of people are saying it is going to be China, and yeh, sure, it could be. However I’m sceptical for the following reasons:

很多人都说会是中国，当然，有可能。然而，我对此持怀疑态度，原因如下:

1.The rise of China was facilitated by preferential treatment under trade rules as it was considered a developing country. That is not so anymore. Countries around the world are closing ranks and resisting Chinese economic supremacy - think about the Trade War. This will seriously retard Chinese economic expansion as an export lead economy.

2.China’s young population was its primary power house. Its population looks to plateau in 2030, and by 2050, it will be around 1.35b, and declining. By 2100, it will have declined to less than 1b (that’s about a 20 - 25% decline). That alone isn't so bad… but what is really bad is that most people in China from 2050 onwards will be increasingly old, pension reliant, none-productive types.

1.中国的崛起得益于贸易规则下的优惠待遇，因为它被认为是一个发展中国家。现在情况已经不一样了。世界各国正在团结起来，抵制中国的经济霸权——想想贸易战吧。这将严重阻碍中国作为出口导向型经济体的经济扩张之路。

2.年轻人口是中国的主要动力来源。到2030年，中国的人口将趋于平稳，到2050年，中国的人口将达到13.5亿，开始不断减少。到2100年，这一数字将降至10亿以下(降幅约为20 - 25%)。单单这一点也并不是很糟糕……真正糟糕的是，从2050年起，中国的大多数人将步入老年，依赖养老金，没有生产力。

In 2050, the big economic power will likely be a large, secular, democratic country with a relatively young population. The US remains a solid candidate for this, as does India, the EU [if its around by then], Brazil and maybe even Nigeria [assuming they get past their tribalism and corruption culture].

Russia has no chance at all. 0, nada, niet, nothing, of becoming a major power. Their population will decline severely by 2050, maybe by 20 to 30%, and what Russians are left will be old and unproductive, and spread across a vast country reliant on mining.

到2050年，经济大国很可能会是一个人口相对年轻、世俗、的大国。美国仍然是实现这一目标的有力候选人，印度、欧盟(如果那时还存在的话)、巴西，甚至尼日利亚(如果它们能克服部落主义和腐败文化)也一样有机会。

俄罗斯根本没有机会。完全，绝对，根本，没有成为一个大国的可能。到2050年他们的人口将严重下降，可能幅度达到20 - 30%，而俄罗斯人将面临的就是老年化、没有生产力、分布在幅员辽阔的国家、依赖于矿业的局面。