中国刚刚赢得美国大选 [美国媒体]

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China Just Won The U.S. Election

中国刚刚赢得了美国大选



The election of Donald Trump will be a disaster for anyone who cares about human rights, U.S. global leadership, and media freedom. That means it’s a victory for Beijing, where as I write, the Chinese leaders near me in the palatial complex of Zhongnanhai are surely cracking open the drinks and making mean jokes.

特朗普的当选对于每个关注人权，重视美国国际关系和媒体自由的人而言是场灾难。这是北京的胜利，在我执笔之时，离我不远的高官们想必此时正在中南海的华丽建筑里举杯相庆，说着玩笑话。

There are four major victories for the Chinese leadership here, tempered by one possible fear. The first victory is the obvious one, the geopolitical victory; China no longer faces the prospect of Hillary Clinton, a tough, experienced opponent with a record of standing up to bullies. Instead, it faces a know-nothing reality TV star who barely seems aware that China has nuclear weapons, has promised to extort money from U.S. allies around China like South Korea and Japan, and has repeatedly undercut U.S. credibility as a defense partner. Trump is also exactly the kind of businessman who is most easily taken in by China — credulous, focused on the externalities of wealth, and massively susceptible to flattery. A single trip, with Chinese laying on the charm, could leave him as fond of China’s strongmen as he is of Russia’s Putin.

对于北京的中央领导而言，特朗普当选，他们在四个方面获得了胜利，同时也在一点上有疑虑。第一个胜利最明显，是地缘上的胜利，中国避开了雄心壮志的希拉里，她可是个经验老道的硬骨头，在打击敌人方面可谓战功赫赫。取而代之的是活在虚幻中的电视明星，几乎不知道中国有核武，还言之凿凿地要向中国周边的美国盟友们（韩国日本）收保护费，作为防卫伙伴，美国的信誉都被特朗普扔到太平洋去了。特朗普就是那种典型的最容易对中国掉以轻心商人--轻信，贪财，爱听恭维话。中国魅力大增，特朗普会像欣赏普金一样在欣赏中国的强权的道路上一去不回。

Countries like Vietnam, Myanmar, and the Philippines, uncertain about who to back in the contest for power in the Pacific, will swing massively China’s way, preferring a country that keeps its promises to one that can turn on the pull of an electoral lever. The strongest U.S. allies, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, no longer confident in the U.S. nuclear umbrella, will begin seriously considering other alternatives — like acquiring their own nuclear deterrent, prompting new tensions with China.

像越南缅甸菲律宾这类国家，面对太平洋强权国家立场不定，很容易倒向中国。毕竟谁都会选择能贯彻承诺的一方，而不是因为选举掉链子的那边。而最坚定的盟友们，台湾，韩国，和日本，对于美国的核保护也信心不足，开始认真考虑别的路径，比如自身寻求核威慑来给中国施压。

Generally, these developments will only embolden China. After the 2008 financial crisis, Beijing was convinced the world was going its way, resulting in a spate of overconfident military moves in southeast Asia which pushed some countries more firmly into the U.S. camp. Now China’s confidence will return, and few in the region will have confidence in Washington’s ability to provide shelter from China’s nascent hegemony. Taiwan, already facing tough mainland rhetoric after electing anti-Beijing leader Tsai Ing-wen, will feel completely isolated — and perhaps be vulnerable to actual invasion — without the firm promise of U.S. protection.

总的来说事态的发展会助长中国的气焰。自08年金融危机后，中国坚信已经迎来自己的时代，于是自负地在南海进行了一系列军事扩张，导致该地区国家坚定地站到美国的阵营之中。现中国又信心回归，而这些国家却对美国在该地区的庇护能力不太抱希望了。台湾在台独领导人蔡英文当选之后一直面对着来自北京的施压，没有了美国的保护，台湾会觉得彻底孤立，要是真有侵略也会不堪一击。

The second victory is in the contest between authoritarianism and democracy. From a Chinese point of view, an electoral system that produces somebody like Trump — utterly inexperienced in governance but a skilled demagogue — is an absurdity, the equivalent of picking a major company’s CEO through a horse race. In China, leaders need to be carefully chosen, groomed, and pushed, gaining experience at every level of the Communist Party system before being anointed for the top job. (That comes amid a flurry of brutally nasty and corrupt internal struggles at each level, mind you.)

第二个胜利，是独裁对民主的胜利。在中国人看来，民主选举太荒唐了，居然能选出特朗普这种货色，政治经验白纸一张，煽动群众倒很是有一手，这是给大公司赛马选总裁么？中国的领导人都是仔细挑选，千锤百炼，层层晋升，经过每个等级的拼杀一步步登上权力的顶峰，一将功成万骨枯，所以，你懂的，他们背后都是所有层级的肮脏腐败的政治斗争。

China aspires toward the Singaporean model of carefully controlled elitism, a country in which Trump represents, in the words of one writer, everything they were taught to fear about democracy. The crudity of Trump’s triumphant campaign gives credence to Chinese media’s criticisms of a “chaotic political farce.” The likely split between the popular vote and the Electoral College will only further the often-made case that U.S. democracy is a sham.

中国向往新加坡严密把控的精英主义，新加坡也是特朗普尊崇的一个国家，一个作家写道，在这里他们学到的一些都是关于畏惧民主的。特朗普的胜利正好验证了中国媒体对美国选举的评价“一场混乱的政治闹剧”。普选和选举团之间的分歧，只会进一步说明美国选举是个骗局。

Trump himself has given every sign of governing like the authoritarian leaders China has favored from Myanmar to Zimbabwe. Every piece of paranoid security theater he has threatened, from a ban on Muslim immigration to the wall with Mexico, will be used by Beijing to justify its own myriad oppressions.

特朗普自己全身都在释放一个信号，他的统治会带有独裁风格，就像中国从缅甸津巴布韦领导人身上乐见的。特朗普的各种偏执的安全威胁，禁止穆斯林移民，在美墨边境造长城什么的，每一条都会被北京用来证实自己的种种压迫政策的合理性。

That leads to the third victory, on human rights. Every year, the United States puts out a report on China’s human rights calamities — and every year China responds with its own report, a mixture of indignant bluster and genuine poking at American sore spots, from police treatment of minorities to the gender gap in pay. But under President Trump, Beijing’s stockpiled ammunition against U.S. hypocrisy on human rights looks set only to grow, given his close ties to white nationalist groups, the likely gutting of civil rights, and his — and his supporters’ — attacks on the notion of press freedom. Any Western attempts to call out China’s reassertion of traditional patriarchy, from the arrest of the Feminist Five to the Communist Party’s absence of female leaders, can be countered with any number of references to the new groper-in-chief. Resurgent Republican homophobia will be a gut blow to China’s gay rights movement. Calls for transparency in China’s military spending and local government budgets can be met by pointing out the victory of a candidate who never even bothered to release his tax records. Racist violence, judging by the experience of Brexit and the composition of the Trump base and rhetoric, may see horrifying new peaks, which would give a brutal new credibility to the old Soviet whataboutism whenever they were challenged on the gulag: “But in America, you lynch Negroes.”

然后，这就导致了第三种胜利，既人权上的胜利。每年美国都要发布一份中国人权的相关调查报告--而中国每年也以一份美国人权报告予以回击，言辞愤慨直中要害：从警察执法的种族歧视到同工不同酬的性别歧视，自从有了特朗普，北京回击的火力也更猛了。想想特朗普和白人民族主义团体的密切关系，他可能给公民权利带来的损害，还有他和他的那帮子支持者们对新闻自由的攻击。西方若是试图以逮捕 the Feminist Five和领导班子缺少女性身影来控诉中国的父权主张，而北京就能用咸猪手总统的各项事迹来打脸，共和党恐同症的兴起也给了中国的同性恋权利运动一阵痛击。你说中国的政府预算和军费开支不透明，可特朗普从未公布过交税记录。提到种族暴力，那就想想英国脱欧，和特朗普竞选团队的行径言辞，西方世界的种族暴力正在盛行，然后人们又会开始简单粗暴地信奉前苏联的whataboutism主义，只要有人提古拉格集中营，俄国人就会说：“可美国人会吊死黑人哟。”

That’s assuming a Trump administration would even press China on human rights at all. Given Trump’s often-expressed admiration for dictators ranging from Saddam Hussein to Vladimir Putin, and his call for isolationism in foreign affairs, China might find itself with a reliably quiet White House that would turn a blind eye to crackdowns in Xinjiang — or even Hong Kong.

特朗普政府简直是把人权硬塞给了中国，鉴于特朗普总是对萨达姆普金这类独裁者不吝赞美之词，还有他在外事上的孤立主义，会让中国发现自己耳根清净了，白宫将不置一词。

And finally, the fourth victory is on media credibility. The almost unanimous condemnation of Trump by newspapers from across the political spectrum — to tragically little effect on the voters — will strengthen the case made by Chinese state media that Western media is biased and elitist.
When China wants to bash Trump, on the other hand, they’ll point to the failure of TV news to call out his myriad failings.

最后的第四个胜利，就是媒体公信力问题。时政类报纸团结一致地声讨特朗普，可悲的是对选情影响甚微，反而还巩固了TG的论调：西方媒体都是偏见和精英主义。反过来如果中国想要黑特朗普，指着电视新闻黑历史要多少有多少。

Those are contradictory criticisms of Western media, of course, but Chinese state media has never balked at hypocrisy, so expect both points to sometimes be made in the same article. (China has been quite happy bashing both the shortsightedness of referenda and the corruption of the EU over Brexit, for instance.) Secondly, the failure by pollsters — even Nate Silver, though laudably uncertain compared to others, had Clinton as two-to-one favorite — will be used by China to cast doubt on the claims of experts across Western newspapers.

这是对西方媒体的反驳，但中国媒体向来虚伪，所以有时候两点可以在同一篇文章中得到体现，比如，中国就英国脱欧大力抨击公民投票制度的短视和欧盟的腐败。第二点，这也是民意调查专家的失败，或者说是内特希尔们的失败，虽然相较于其他人，他的迟疑已经很可贵了，但最终他还是押了希拉里，所以中国可以质疑西方媒体的所谓专家们。

But there’s one major worry that may mute the celebrations in Zhongnanhai. Although China regularly trashes the US, the country’s growth has been dependent, ironically enough, on a strong, stable and prosperous United States willing to trade with the world. Globalization, as Chinese authors have repeatedly argued in the last few months, is vital for a country that needs the markets of others to keep pushing its population into the middle class and achieve the dream of being a “moderately prosperous” country by 2020.

不过对北京而言，也不都是好消息，有个大忧虑能给中南海浇浇冷水。虽然中国定期抨击美国，但是讽刺的是，这个国家的经济发展却依赖于美国，它需要一个强大稳定繁荣的美国，一个愿意敞开国门参加国际贸易的美国。中国人近来一再强调全球化，因为中国需要外部市场，来帮助他把庞大的人口带入中产阶级，来保证2020年之前实现全面小康的中国梦。

If Trump actually follows through on his protectionist plans, and his decisions have the same effect on the United States as they have on his many failed businesses, China’s own economy, already quivering, will start to shake. Beijing’s ambitious plans to develop other global trade networks through the “One Road, One Belt” scheme may be able to compensate for that — or may prove just as unstable in a rudderless world. China and the United States have often been compared to the two wings of the global economy; if one goes, they spiral down together.

如果特朗普真的兑现贸易保护主义的计划，他的决策对美国的影响也许可以参考他搞砸的很多生意。岌岌可危的中国经济将会动摇。中国野心勃勃的部署一带一路计划构建新的国际贸易网络也许能够抵消特朗普当选的负面效果，但是，也许最终只能证明在一个群龙无首的世界里，一带一路计划也是不牢靠的。中美经常被比作全球经济的双翼，任去其一，整体就能一头栽倒在地，一损俱损。