为什么是特朗普：川普赢的五个理由 [美国媒体]

US Election 2016 Results: Five reasons Donald Trump won

美国2016大选结果：川普赢的五个理由



Donald Trump has defied all expectations from the very start of his presidential campaign more than a year ago.

唐纳德•特朗普从一开始竞选到现在这一年多里，他几乎出乎了所有人的意料之外。

Very few people thought he would actually run, then he did. They thought he wouldn't climb in the polls, then he did. They said he wouldn't win any primaries, then he did. They said he wouldn't win the Republican nomination, then he did.

几乎没有人相信他真的会去竞选总统，但是他做到了；
人们认为他得不到足够的民意支持，但是他做到了；
人们认为他无法战胜党内其他主要竞选对手，但是他做到了；
人们认为他无法获得共和党总统候选人提名，但是他做到了。

Finally, they said there was no way he could compete for, let alone win, a general election.
Now he's president-elect Trump.

最后，人们说他想和希拉里旗鼓相当地竞选都是白日做梦，更不要说最终赢得大选了。
但是，他现在已经成为了 - - 当选总统特朗普！

Here are five ways he pulled off what was unexpected by most and incomprehensible to many.

下面是他此次赢得许多人意想不到和难以理解的胜利的五个原因。

1.  Trump's white wave

1.  川普的白人浪潮



Toss-ups were tossed aside. One after another, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina went to Mr Trump.
That left Mrs Clinton's blue firewall, and the firewall was eventually breached.

胜负难料如今已经变成了胜负已定。一个接着一个的，俄亥俄州，弗罗里达州，北卡罗来纳州都倒向了川普。
希拉里只剩下了她的蓝色防火墙（传统的民主党州），但是蓝色防火墙如今也出现了裂缝。

The Democrat's last stand largely rested on her strength in the Midwest. Those were states that had gone Democrat for decades, based in part on the support of black and working-class white voters.

民主党最后只能寄希望于中西部各州。得益于黑人和工薪阶层白人投票者的支持, 这些州在过去的几十年里一直倾向于民主党。

Those working-class white people, particularly ones without college education - men and women - deserted the party in droves. Rural voters turned out in high numbers, as the Americans who felt overlooked by the establishment and left behind by the coastal elite made their voices heard.

然而，这些工薪阶层白人，尤其是那些没受过大学教育的 - - 男人和女人们 - - 都纷纷抛弃了民主党。其中，大多数被证实都是来自农村地区的投票者，这些美国人感到自己受到建制派的忽视，自己的声音被沿海地区的精英们遗忘在身后了。

While places like Virginia and Colorado held fast, Wisconsin fell - and with it Mrs Clinton's presidential hopes.

虽然希拉里在有些州比如弗吉尼亚州和科罗拉多州选情依然坚挺，但是在威斯康辛州的选情却破灭了 - - 一起破灭的还有希拉里赢得总统的最后一丝希望。

When all is said and done, Mrs Clinton may end up winning the popular vote on the back of strong support in places like California and New York and closer-than-expected losses in solid-red states like Utah.

虽然到最后，希拉里很可能会以较大优势赢得那些强烈支持她的州，比如加州和纽约州，但是在那些坚固的红色州比如犹他州，可能会输得比预期的还要惨。

The Trump wave hit in the places it had to, however. And it hit hard.

最终，川普的浪潮会席卷那些之前势在必得的州。并且，会席卷很彻底。

2.  Teflon Donald

2.  金刚不坏之身的唐纳德



Mr Trump insulted decorated war veteran John McCain.

川普辱骂参加过越战并被授予勋章的老兵约翰•麦凯恩。

（译注：特朗普在共和党一次集会上称，麦凯恩曾被俘，不算英雄，他此番言论遭到猛烈抨击。麦凯恩在越战期间是一名海军飞行员，曾被俘五年多。特朗普拒绝为此番言论道歉，尽管其言论在党内招致严厉批评，甚至有党内其他候选人呼吁其退出2016年总统大选。
特朗普此前在爱荷华州埃姆斯市一次聚会上发表讲话，当时主持人称麦凯恩为战争英雄。
“他不是战争英雄，”特朗普反驳道，“他是因为被俘才成了战争英雄，我喜欢没被俘的人。”）

He picked a fight with Fox News and its popular presenter, Megyn Kelly.

他挑起了与福克斯电视台和它们最受欢迎的女主播Megyn Kelly的战争。

（译注：特朗普对女主播凯利出言不逊，引发各界公愤，他9日辩称自己最爱护女性，但仍拒绝道歉，坚称是遭到误解，并开火反击批评者。他7日告诉有线电视新闻网(CNN)：“你可以看到血从她的双眼流出来，血从她身上任何地方流出来。”这番话已导致在亚特兰大举行的重要保守派论坛撤回对他的邀请。不过，特朗普9日反驳说，只有“有病”或“不正常”的人，会认为他说的话是指凯利的月经。尽管如此，特朗普不愿道歉，只表示他对凯利“没有敌意”，但重提他对凯利的批评，再次指责她在辩论时提问不公平。）

He doubled down when asked how he once mocked the weight of a Hispanic beauty pageant winner.

当被问到他曾经如何嘲笑一个拉美裔选美冠军的体重时，川普又再次变本加厉地对此嘲笑了一番。

（译注：前环球小姐艾丽西亚•马查多曾被共和党总统提名人特朗普称为“猪小姐”、“管家小姐”和“吃货”，她决心阻止特朗普成为总统。马查多在接受《卫报》采访时说，“他不可能成为美利坚合众国的总统。 ”特朗普直到去年为止一直把持环球小姐选美比赛，在马查多于1996年环球小姐选美比赛中胜出后，他嘲笑马查多的体重并辱骂她。特朗普承认他对马查多说过让她减肥，但他不会让步。周二早上，他告诉福克斯新闻说，当时马查多“体重大量增加,体重成为大问题。”马查多在环球小姐选美比赛胜出之后，特朗普强迫她节食和锻炼。除了对马查多的身体进行羞辱外，特朗普还嘲弄她的拉丁血统，批评她的口音，叫她“管家小姐”。当民主党候选人希拉里•克林顿在周一的总统辩论中引用这件事情来曝光特朗普的厌女症历史时，马查多的故事再次引起了人们的关注。）

He offered a half-hearted apology when the secret video surfaced of his boasting about making unwanted sexual advances towards women.

当关于吹嘘自己对女性进行恶心的性骚扰的秘密录像浮出水面时，他仅仅只是做了一番很不真诚地道歉就算了。

He gaffed his way through the three presidential debates with clearly lightly practised performances.

在三场大选辩论中，他表现得非常失礼，一直在很明显地，轻浮地，老练地表演。

None of it mattered. While he took dips in the polls following some of the more outrageous incidents, his approval was like a cork - eventually bouncing back to the surface.

然而这所有的一切都无关紧要。虽然随着一些无耻的事情被爆出，民意调查中他的支持率在下降，但是支持率接下来又像一个浮在水上的软木塞 - -  按下去最后又弹起来。

Perhaps the various controversies came so hard and fast that none had time to draw blood. Maybe Mr Trump's personality and appeal was so strong, the scandals just bounced off. Whatever the reason, he was bulletproof.

也许是各种各样的争议如此迅速而又粗暴地接踵而至，以致于人们一时之间没有时间去消化；也许是川普的人格和感染力太强，以致于这些丑闻都被轻松地弹开了。不管是什么原因，他就是这么刀枪不入，水火不侵。

3.  The outsider

3.  门外汉



He ran against the Democrats. He also ran against the powers within his own party.
He beat them all.

他在与民主党人竞选总统。同时，他也与自己党内的大佬们存在竞争。
他击败了所有这些人。

Mr Trump built a throne of skulls out of his Republican primary opponents. Some, like Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Chris Christie and Ben Carson, eventually bent knee. The holdouts, like Jeb Bush and Ohio Governor John Kasich, are now on the outside of their party looking in.

特朗普击败了所有自己在共和党内的主要竞选对手，铸造了自己的骷髅王座。一些人比如卢比奥，科鲁兹，克里斯•克里斯蒂，本•卡森，最终都跪倒在他的王座之下（译注：这些都是共和党初选的候选人）。那些拒不合作的人，比如杰布•布什，俄亥俄州长John Kasich，如今都被排除在总统班子之外。

And for the rest of the party insiders, from House Speaker Paul Ryan on down? Mr Trump didn't need their help - and, in fact, may have won because he was willing to take a stand against them.

那么其他共和党的局内人，从上面的众议院议长保罗•瑞恩到下面的普通共和党员呢？川普并不需要他们的帮助 - - 而且，事实上，他之所以能赢也许正是因为他愿意采取和他们对立的立场。

Mr Trump's pox-on-them-all attitude is likely to have proved his independence and outsider status at a time when much of the American public reviled Washington (although not enough to keep them from re-electing most congressional incumbents running for re-election).

川普这样一副 “他们都该死” 的态度很可能凸显出他的独立性和门外汉的身份，尤其是在这个许多美国民众都对华盛顿很不爽的时期。

It was a mood some other national politicians sensed - Democrat Bernie Sanders, for instance, as well as Mr Cruz. No one, however, captured it more than Trump, and it won him the White House.

这种不满的情绪也有一些其他的政治家敏锐地感觉到了 - - 例如，民主党候选人伯尼•桑德斯，还有科鲁兹等等。但是，没有一个人能比川普更会捕捉这一点，而正是这让他赢得了白宫。

4.  The Comey Factor

4.  科米的因素



The polls clearly did a woeful job predicting the shape and preferences of the electorate, particularly in Midwestern states. In the final days of the campaign, however, the reality is that the polls were close enough that Mr Trump had a pathway to victory.

此次大选的民意调查在预测大选的发展和选民的偏好方面，做得是相当的糟糕，尤其是在中西部州。但是，在大选的最后几天里，有一个事实民意调查还是非常接近地预测到了，那就是川普已经走上了一条通往胜利之路了。

That pathway didn't look nearly as obvious about two weeks ago, before FBI director James Comey released his letter announcing that they were reopening their investigation into Hillary Clinton's private email server.

然而这条路在两个星期之前却看得不是那么明显，转折点是发生在FBI局长詹姆斯•科米发表了一封信件表示FBI要重启对希拉里私人邮件门的调查之后的。

True, the polls were tightening a bit, but Mr Trump's sharpest rise in the standings came in the weeks between that first letter and Mr Comey's second, in which he said he had put the investigation back on the shelf.

确实，事情发生后，川普的民意调查稍微有些上涨，但是川普的支持率大幅上涨，还是发生在科米发表的第一封信件和第二封信件之间的这几星期，在第二封信件中，科米宣布收回此前宣布调查的决定。

It seems likely that during that period, Mr Trump was able to successfully consolidate his base, bringing wayward conservatives back into the fold and shredding Mrs Clinton's hopes of offering a compelling closing message to US voters.

看起来似乎是在这一时期，川普在成功地巩固自己的基本盘的同时，收起了自己任性的保守主义锋芒，粉碎了希拉里企图传递给美国投票人关于邮件门一事件已经结束这一消息。

Of course, Mr Comey's actions never would have been a factor if Mrs Clinton had decided to rely on State Department email servers for her work correspondence. That one is on her shoulders.

当然，如果希拉里一开始就按照规定，用政府部门的服务器来处理自己的工作通信邮件，那科米的动作也不会造成这样的影响。这一点她也是自作自受。

5.  Trusted his instincts

5.  相信自己的直觉



Mr Trump ran the most unconventional of political campaigns, but it turned out he knew better than all the experts.

川普完成了一场非常规的政治竞选，但是事实证明，他比其他所有的专家都懂行。

He spent more on hats than on pollsters. He travelled to states like Wisconsin and Michigan that pundits said were out of reach.

他把更多的精力花在实实在在的选民身上，而不纠结在所谓的民意调查上。他坚持前往那些权威人士认为他绝对不可能获胜的州，比如威斯康辛州和密歇根州，去做宣传。

He held massive rallies instead of focusing on door-knocking and get-out-the-vote operations.

他坚持通过举行大规模的竞选集会来宣传，而不是通过逐户访问来动员拉票的手段。

He had a disjointed, sometimes chaotic national political convention that was capped by an acceptance speech that was more doom-and-gloom than any in modern US political history.

他的共和党总统候选人提名大会是完全一场杂乱的，或者可以说是混乱的全国政治大会，他的候选人提名演讲被称为美国当代政治历史上最糟糕的总统候选人提名演讲。

He was vastly outspent by the Clinton campaign, just as he was during the Republican primaries.

早在共和党初选期间，他就被希拉里的竞选团队认为他已经穷途末路了。

He turned consensus wisdom about how to win the presidency on its head.

他的做法完全颠覆了大家公认的关于如何赢得竞选的明智方法。

All of these decisions - and many more - were roundly ridiculed in "knowledgeable" circles.

所有这些决策和很多其他的做法，都被所谓的“聪明的”精英圈子从头到尾地嘲笑。

In the end, however, they worked. Mr Trump and his closest confidants - his children and a few chosen advisers - will have the last laugh.

然而，最后的最后，这些方法成功了。川普和他的最亲密的心腹们 - - 他的孩子们和他挑选的顾问们 - - 笑到了最后。

And they'll do it from the White House.

如今，他们将入主白宫，从白宫再次启程。