如果美国消失，那世界会怎样？ [美国媒体]

-------------译者：吃苞米的猫-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



This should be answered as if to answer the question of "Which nations rely the most American support patronage partnerships trade military protection ext?" It also isn't asking about a gradual decline. If today every American person agency corporation were to simply disappear which nations would be the most affected by that why? Which industries abroad would be shaken up? Which governments would have to restructure for what reasons? Which international companies would be collapsed or prosper? Which organizations would evolve the most in the absence of the United States?
(Not so much concerned if the geographical landmass were to disappear. Just the modern international elements of it.)

这个问题的实质其实是要搞清楚到底有哪些国家依赖于美国的支持赞助，并且需要美方贸易与军事上的保护。这里的“消失”并不是一个逐渐的过程。试想，如果今天美国的一切都消失了，哪些国家会受到最大影响？原因是什么呢?哪些国外产业将会动摇？哪些政府又会因为什么原因发生重组呢？会有多少国际公司走向繁荣和衰败？美国离场，又有哪些组织飞速发展？
（不讨论地理面积的变化，主要是当下的国际因素）


-------------译者：吃苞米的猫-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Hunter Chastain Graduated in 2016 in Econ and PoliSci History junky avowed Conservative
upxed Oct 8
1. China would take Taiwan.
2. Japan would begin a massive military buildup to counter China and North Korea which could be worse than the US Cold War.
3. North Korea would invade South Korea and likely overrun it. At least causing widespread deaths and devastation
4. The tensions in Eastern Europe would flair up. Serbia might resume its post-Yugoslavia conflicts which NATO repeatedly intervened in previously.
5. Russia would likely claim more of Ukraine along with Estonia Latvia and Lithuania. Georgia would also be taken along with Central Asian states that were once apart of the USSR.
6. Israel would beef up its military and prepare for war
7. Iran might invade other middle eastern countries and rebuild its empire which is a real concern. Iraq had planned to invade Saudi Arabia before the US started the Gulf War. Iran might even break out in war with Saudi Arabia. (Middle East destabilizes quickly)
8. Pakistan and India might end up in war simply from the massive chaos

1、中国将会收复台湾。
2、日本将大规模地扩充军需来对抗中朝两国，将比冷战有过之而无不及。
3、朝将对韩发动侵略和蹂躏，最终造成严重的死伤和大范围的破坏。
4、东欧的紧张事态将会加剧。塞尔维亚将会重新参与此前北欧曾多次介入的后南斯拉夫冲突。
5、俄将会对乌克兰、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛索要更多土地。格鲁吉亚也将被占领，而以前作为苏联一部分的中亚国家也将俄罗斯占领。
6、 以色列将会加强军事力量准备开战。
7、值得关注的是，伊朗将会侵略其他中东国家，建立殖民帝国；而伊拉克早已计划在美国发起海湾战争前侵略沙特阿拉伯。伊朗说不定直接与沙特开战。（中东地区的和平将很快被打破）
8、印巴冲突将会由大规模的混乱转为战争。

That is just an incomplete list of wars that might break out due to the US disappearing. This doesn’t include the starvation breakdown in the global economy and all the other disasters that would occur. Why would all of this happen? To answer that question you need to ask yourself what happened to Europe when Rome disappeared? Technology went backwards food was in short supply war broke out etc. This would be worse than Rome disappearing. The US is the central economy to the whole world. It drives food production global peace (its true don’t say it isn’t) innovation etc.
If the US instantly disappeared it would be an absolute mess. The US has certainly committed its fair share of atrocities during its reign but its hard to make an argument that the world is better off if we just disappeared. So what would happen? Chaos would happen and that might be putting it lightly.

这只是一份由美国的缺席而可能爆发的不完全战争统计表。这并不包括经济危机和其他可能发生的灾难。为什么这些会发生？为了回答这个问题，请你回想罗马消失了之后欧洲的惨况。技术水平下降，食物短缺，战争爆发·····这将会比罗马的消失还要糟糕。美国是世界经济中心，推动食品生产、全球和平（这是真的，不要否认）、创新······
如果美国迅速消失，世界绝对乱成一锅粥。美国统治时期，曾犯下滔天暴行，但很难说美国消失了这个世界会变得更好。会发生什么呢？无疑会有混乱，这还是轻的。

-------------译者：一成-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Pavel Wolkow29 votes Show
==North Korea would invade South Korea and likely overrun it. At least causing widespread deaths and devastation==
No way NK now is much weaker than SK and have not any chance against modern and full equipted south army.

引用==朝鲜会入侵韩国，吊打韩国，最终会造成大面积的死亡和毁坏==
想都别想，朝鲜比韩国弱多了，面对韩国的现代化全副武装的军队朝鲜一点机会都没有

Julien Boyer16 votes Show
Serbia would what!
Absolutely zero chances nope nope. What's that other thing you said about Europe? Russia would invade the Baltics…
You seem to be under the impression that the only NATO country with an army is the USA. The EU has nukes. And some of the most professional armies in the world. Finland on its own could probably resist a Russian invasion as they have in the past. Russia would attack the EU? For the Baltics? What?
This discredits pretty much everything else you said.

塞尔维亚会怎样！
完全没有机会好吗。还有你说欧洲会发生什么？俄罗斯会入侵波罗的海。。
你是不是觉得北约就只有美国有军队啊？欧盟也有核武器好吧？他们是世界上最专业的军队之一。芬兰靠自己都可以抵抗俄罗斯的入侵，他们在过去就做过这样的事情。俄罗斯会攻击欧盟？就为了波罗的海的国家？什么鬼。。
你说的完全不可信好吧。

-------------译者：大汉故土-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Jimmy Burhan4 votes Show
I actually think without the US China might have better relations with Japan and Taiwan. Japan would have to ingratiate itself to appease China -they couldn't risk pissing off China and China-Taiwan reunification would eventually happen without obstacles because Taiwan would have no security guarantor. China might be less aggressive and they would have no reason to assert their claim over SCS. Since the entire reason was to challenge the US’ “Pivot to Asia” and the first island chain. But the relations between China and Russia would be frozen because they don't have a common enemy. Russia is China’s natural enemy after all.

我想如果没有美国，中国跟日本和台湾的关系会大有改善。日本将不得不迎合中国以讨好她，日本不会冒险得罪中国。而台湾没有干爹之后，统一的阻碍消失。中国大陆最终将与台湾实现统一。中国的侵略性会更低，他们也没有理由再对南海提出主权申索，因为（对南海主权提出申索的）主要原因是为了对抗美国的重返亚洲战略以及第一岛链。但是因为缺乏共同的敌人，中俄之间的关系将降为冰点。毕竟俄国是中国的天敌。

Shreyas Banthalpad2 votes Show
Why thank you My Lord for protecting this whole wide world. What would we do without Your Grace?
“Pakistan and India might end up in war simply from the massive chaos”. What absolute drivel. This is the most ridiculous condescending answer I have read in a while.

感谢我主保佑整个世界，失去你的荣光我们将何去何从？
“巴基斯坦和印度最终可能会被战争摧毁”，真是胡说八道，这是我最近看过的最荒谬的言论。

-------------译者：一成-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Philip Machanick12 votes Show
A lot of other countries now in conflict would no longer have an external player pushing it that way. The US is no the only one of course but is a major player in destabilizing other countries going back decades.

许多现在处于冲突中的国家不会再有外部力量来促使他们这样做了。当然美国不是唯一的，但也是过去几十年来破坏其他国家稳定的主要角色。

Steven Reichert11 votes Show
Actually weath inequality in the Roman empire was so unimaginably bad that many studies believe the average person had more food to eat after the fall of the Western Roman empire. As the Roman Republic grew the rich Senatorial elite increasingly used their position to take the best lands from Roman citizens and the best land from new conquests. This resulted in millions of essentially destitute Roman citizens almost entirely dependent upon government assistance.

事实上罗马帝国的不平等简直难以想象。许多研究都认为在西罗马帝国垮台以后普通人获得了更多食物。随着罗马共和国发展很多有钱的参议院精英越来越多的利用他们的职位从罗马公民手中以及新的征途中获得最好的土地。这导致数以百万记的罗马赤贫公民几乎都靠政府补助过活。

-------------译者：零zero-审核者：独孤风云-------------

Alexander Martirosian15 votes Show
That's all so wrong.
North Korea is not interested in destroying South Korea.
Russia has lost nothing in the Baltics. They don't even speak the same language. There is not even an economical incentive.
Israel would not beef up their military because the main donor of money and military stuff is now gone.
Iran is not interested in invading other countries. When in history have they dont that?
India Pakistan I doubt it.

这都是错误的。
北韩并没有把注意力放在摧毁南韩上。
俄罗斯也没有在波罗的海失去什么，他们不说同一种语言。他们甚至没有任何经济刺激。
以色列不会增强自己的军队，因为其主要的金主和军备赞助人已经消失不在。
伊朗并没有打算侵略其他国家。他们历史上那么做了吗？
印度巴基斯坦，我不确定。

 -------------译者：一成-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

John Ferguson7 votes Show
A deeply pessimistic view of the world and a slight rose-tinted view of the role of the US in holding everything together. You make it sound as though countries all over the place are poised waiting to pounce on each other and it’s only the mere presence of the US that is preventing a total sh!tstorm. There are many around the World who would suggest the exact opposite is true!
And I would point out that genuine acts of geo-political aggression in the last few years (e.g. Syria Crimea) were done so despite protestations from the US and without any subsequent American intervention
The reality is there’s little incentive for the aggressors of the wars you’ve just outlined. Nobody in South Asia wants an Indian-Pakistan war. It’s a zero-sum game. Wars are costly in terms of economics and human life. Besides many of the wars you’ve outlined make very little geo-political sense. Why would Russia invade the Baltics?? Why would Serbia invade anyone??
In the absence of the US there would be an economic vacuum and a massive re balancing of trade and wealth.

好像没有美国，世界就要陷入混乱似的。你对世界太悲观，而对美国所扮演的角色又太乐观。你说的看起来像世界各地都蓄势待发准备相互厮杀，而美国的出现阻止了这一切。然而世界上还是有很多人觉得反过来才是真的（美国导致了世界各地的战争？）
需要指出，过去几年发生的地缘政治冲突（比如叙利亚克里米亚）都是这样的，尽管美国严重反对并且也没有采取后续的干预
事实上你提出来的这些战争都没有动机。南亚没人会希望印巴战争，这是一个零和游戏。战争会在经济上和生命上造成严重破坏。包括你说的战争在内，还有很多其他战争都没有地缘政治意义。为什么俄罗斯要入侵波罗的海？为什么塞尔维亚要侵略别人？
如果美国不在了，世界会出现经济真空，财富和贸易会大规模的再平衡。

-------------译者：零zero-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Jim Davis
It isn’t especially cogent to the question but Europe fell apart when the Christians took over and plunged Europe into the aptly named Dark Ages.

这个回答不是特别有说服力。但是在基督徒接管欧洲后欧洲四分五裂并进入了“黑暗时代”。

Jian Sun12 votes Show
Is Quora in chaos without the dominance of Americanism?

失去了美国的统治，Quora会不会陷入混乱？（Quora是一个问答SNS网站，类似国内的知乎）

K Ken Nakamura
I doubt JPN would go through massive military buildup. Most of Japanese are allergic to anything military any sort of wars or any sort of preparation for wars. You might have wrong idea because present prime minister is extremely hawkish but most Japanese don’t want any sort of military conflicts. Beside there is no way JPN can match militarily against CHN so military buildup is absolutely meaningless and many Japanese know that.

我怀疑日本将会建立大批军队。绝大多数的日本人将会对各种形式的军事、战争和战争准备过敏。你之所以会有这种错误想法是因为现在的日本首相是鹰派，但是日本人不想要任何形式的军事冲突。日本在军事上根本无法和中国竞争，所以日本的军事建设是毫无意义的，很多日本人清楚这一点。

-------------译者：珂求一生-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Maneesh Bilalpur2 votes Show
I dont think Japan can afford to build a massive armygiven its decreaing population of youth.

我不认为日本能够有能力建造一个庞大的军队，由于它青年人口的不断下降。

Ezequiel Acosta4 votes Show
You just cannot say you drive global peace. I just can’t agree. Go tell that to Iraqi people then… You’ve invaded and interfered in other countries’ affairs just lots and lots of times. You’ve been in hunt for oil since the 1980s. My country is broken its economy is broken and that’s thanks to the puppet you sent over here. You’re getting more and more warmongering as time passes and a large etcetera.

你怎么能说是你推动了全球和平。我可不敢同意。有胆去跟伊拉克人说嘛。。。你们美国人一直在侵略和干预他国事务。从20世纪80年代开始一直就在搜刮石油，我的国家因此毁灭、国家经济也一振不起，多亏了你们派来的“小狗”。随着时间的过去和一些其他的等等，你们变得更加会煽动战争。

-------------译者：老油条hdn-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

John Randall
Canada would become an island. The land running from northern Mexico to southern Chile would become an island. Marsupials might make an eventual comeback in the new southern island. If Columbus had just waited 500+ years he could have sailed to India just by veering north a little. The Atlantic and Pacific would merge and change the international energy conveyor belt possibly expanding the northern icecap eventually driving Europeans onto the new north African prairie. Sea levels would go down possibly allowing the Europeans to walk to north Africa. Learning to swim would no longer be a requirement in Bangladesh.

加拿大将成为一个岛屿。从墨西哥北部到智利南部的土地将变成一个岛屿。有袋类动物可能最终会在新的南方岛屿重新出现。如果哥伦布稍微再等500多年，他本可以只是顺时针偏北一点就航行到印度。 大西洋和太平洋将合并，改变国际能源输送带，可能扩大北方的冰盖，最终驱使欧洲人进入新的北非大草原。海平面将下降，可能允许欧洲人步行到北非。学习游泳将不再是孟加拉国的要求。

Ricky Soong
China would take Taiwan before the US falls to ground.

中国将在美国落地前得到台湾。

Aditya Guha
Thank you USA for saving the world. Always.

感谢美国拯救世界。一直。

 -------------译者：独孤风云--审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Vishesh Chanana6 votes Show
And aliens would have to find another country to land their space craft

外星人必须找另一个国家来登陆他们的太空船

Saber Sheybani
Although I do not deny US’s role in keeping the current balance of power this answer is emphasizing it too much. It should also be noted that the current balance itself has come after its previous chaos which did include blood-shedding by America.

虽然我不否认美国在保持当前权力平衡的作用但是这个回答太过于强调这点了。 还应当指出，目前的平衡本身是在它以前的混乱之后发生的，这种混乱就包括美国自身的流血。

Shubham Gaur
Pakistan and India might end up in war simply from the massive chaos
The disappearance of the United States would definitely not affect whether they fight a war or not. That’s the reason us (American citizens) hear little about their conflicts because the US have shown favoritism towards both countries and if they support one side now they’re going to fight a full on world war 3.
Don’t think so? They are both growing economies over 5 times faster than US economic growth and have vastly large armies and well-trained militaries in Asia (Controversially Pakistan is the only Muslim nation to own nuclear weapons).

巴基斯坦和印度可能会从大规模的混乱中结束战争
美国的消失绝对不会影响他们是否打一场战争。 这就是我们（美国公民）听不到他们的冲突的原因，因为美国已经表现出对两个国家的偏袒，如果他们支持一方的话那么他们就会打一场全面的第三次世界大战。
难道不这么认为吗？ 他们都是经济增长速度超过美国的5倍，在亚洲拥有庞大的和训练有素的军队（而有争议的巴基斯坦是拥有核武器的唯一穆斯林国家）。

-------------译者：老油条hdn-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Daniel Kim1 vote by Eugene Frolov
North Korea wouldn't be able to run over South Korea.
Logistics plus the fact that the South Korean military isn’t a joke (it's the 8th strongest in the world).

朝鲜不可能蹂躏韩国。韩国后勤一流，而且韩国军队可不是开玩笑的（世界第八强）。

Mujtaba Azim
India and Pakistan isn't restricted by US in terms of going to war. I don't think US has much to do with the Kashmir issue.

印度和巴基斯坦在战争方面不受美国的限制。 我不认为美国与克什米尔问题有太多关系。

Peter Specht
Try Mexico would take over the United States and then sooner or later all of us would be speaking Spanish.

墨西哥将试图接管美国，然后迟早我们将会说西班牙语。

 -------------译者：零zero-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Ben Dickson
1) The price of gold would skyrocket and world markets would plummet
2) Nuclear war would be too devistating
3) The UN would be restructured with no country having veto power
4) Democracy although feeble at this time would move towards more autocratic rule in many countries
5) A prolonged Cold War would ensue
6) Russia and China would negotiate a truse
7) World debt restructured or forgiven

1）金价会猛涨，全球市场将会暴跌
2）核战将会更加惨烈（没有devistate这个词，可能是笔误）
3）联合国将会重建，没有国家拥有否决权
4）民主的衰弱会使更多国家走向专制
5）继而陷入长期的冷战
6）俄罗斯和中国将会谈判，彼此信任
7）全球债务将会洗牌或免除

Amira Smith1 vote by Yichen Luo
This comment is overstating things quite a bit.

这个评论有些夸张。