人民币为什么能代替美元（1） [美国媒体]

[1]The Backing Dollar/Reserve Currency

  美元霸权地位


the US government has one very important weapon to use in this crisis.it is the only debtor in the world who can legally print US Dollars and the u.s. dollar is what's known as the world's reserve currency.the dollar forms the basis of the world's financial system it is what banks around the world hold in reserve against their loans .that's a secret that most politicians don't understand. As things stand right now, the US government can't go broke in any ordinary sense of the word because it can simply print dollars to pay for it's bad debts. it's been doing so since March of 2009 .

在这场危机中美国手里拥有一个非常重要的武器。美国是世界上唯一一个，可以合法的印刷美元的债务国，而美元又被视为“世界储蓄货币”。美元构成了世界金融体系的基础，并且也是世界各国银行储备用来偿还（国外）债务的币种。这是个秘密，许多政客都不知道的。就目前的情况来看，美国政府不可能发生通常意义上的破产，因为它只要印刷美元就能偿还它的债务。自从2009年3月以来美国似乎一直在这样做。

that might sound pretty good at first .since we can always just print more money ,what is there to worry about？.well let me show you. you see ,as things stand today America is the only country in the world that doesn't have to pay for its imports or its debts and a foreign currency .let's say you're a German and you want to buy oil from Saudi Arabia. you can't just pay for your oil in German marks or the new euro currency because the oil is priced in dollars. so you have to buy dollars first then buy your oil ,and that means the value of the German currency is of great importance to the German government. to maintain the value of its currency,Germans must produce at least as much as they consume from around the world ,otherwise the value of its currency will begin to fall causing prices to rise and its standard of living to decline .

这个乍一听似乎很不错，所以既然我们只需要印美元就行了，那么有什么需要担心的呢？让我来给你们分析一下。大家知道，就目前来看，美国是世界上唯一一个，不需要用外币来结算进口贸易和偿还债务的（译者注：世界贸易，大宗商品等统一用美元结算，对美国来说，美元是本币）。比如说，你是德国人，想买沙特的石油。但是你不能用德国马克或者欧元来支付，因为石油是用美元计价的。所以你首先必须兑换美元，然后再用美元购买石油，这就意味着德国马克的币值对于德国政府来说至关重要。
为了维持本国币值稳定，德国人生产的产品，必须至少和他们消费的来自世界各国的产品一样多，否则德国马克会贬值，导致价格上升，生活水平下降（译者注：若生产比消费少，说明进口的东西多，而进口需要用美元，所以对美元需求上升，对德国马克需求下降，因此导致美元升值，德国马克贬值，从而物价上升，生活水平下降）。

but in America...? we've been able to consume as much as we want without worrying about acquiring the money to pay for it ,because our dollars are accepted everywhere around the world . for decades now ,we haven't had to produce anything or export anything to get all the dollars we needed to buy all the oil and other goods our country required. all we had to do was borrow and print more money, and boy did we take a look at this chart, even as late as the 1970s America was the world's largest creditor ,but by the mid-1980s we'd become a debtor to the world and since the late 1990s we've been the world's largest debtor .today our government owes more money to more people than anyone else in the world and that was before the financial crisis! with all these bad debts piling up we've had to begin repaying our debts by printing trillions of new dollars and now finally the impact of this is being felt in a big way .

但是美国是什么情况？我们可以想消费多少就消费多少，并且不用担心（其他国家面临的）美元不够用，因为我们的美元是世界上通用货币。我们不必生产制造或者出口任何产品以换取美元，用来购买石油或者我们国家需要的其他产品，这种情况到目前为止已经有几十年了，我们需要做的只是，印更多的美元借更多的外债。但是，我们需要看一眼下图。

 （译者注：原图在视频上，不能下载，本图是从其他资料上找的，真实性可靠。本图还可以看出，美国为了避免债务违约，债务上限也在逐年提升）

甚至直到20世纪70年代，美国都是世界上最大的债权国，但是到了20世纪80年代中期，我们成了一个债务国。并且从20世纪90年代开始我们一直是世界上最大的债务国。当今我们政府所欠的债务额，比世界上其他任何一个国家都多。但那是在金融危机之前，（金融危机后）随着这些讨厌的债务的累积，我们不得不增印上万亿美元钞票来偿还债务。现在，最终，这样做造成了很大的影响。

as our creditors continue to figure out what's happening ,we're going to have very very big problems .I believe our creditors which includes foreign countries and other investors here and abroad will either completely stopped accepting dollars in repayment or greatly discount the value of these new dollars. I'm sure you think that sounds crazy， but as I'll show you, it is already happening. this will make our consumption-LED way of life and possible to afford .and I'm confident it will lead to an end of the US dollar standard .keep in mind the US dollar has been the world's reserve currency for decades now .so most Americans don't have a clue about what the repercussions are of losing this status. and maybe you think it could never happen but the truth is this is exactly what happens when countries get too far in debt or when they consume too much or produce too little. in fact the exact same thing happened to Great Britain in the 1970s.

当我们的债权人逐渐弄清楚正在发生的事情时，我们将会有大麻烦。我相信我们的债权人，包括其他国家以及国内外的投资者，他们会彻底拒绝美国政府用（新印的）美元来还债，或者对于这些美元的价值打一个很大的折扣。我相信，你肯定觉得这听起来很疯狂，但正如我接下来要向你们展示的，这实际上已经在发生了。这将使我们再也负担不起，以消费为导向的生活方式。并且我相信这也会导致，美元（作为世界结算标准的）地位的丧失。要知道，美国作为世界储备货币已经有几十年的历史了，所以大多数美国人不知道，美元失去这种地位会有什么影响。也许你认为这是不可能发生的，但事实是，当国家负债过多或消费过多，但是生产太少时，这种情况就会发生。事实上，同样的事情就发生在20世纪70年代的英国。

[2] The Story Of Great Britain in the 1970's

20世纪70年代英国的故事

most people don't know this but British Sterling was the reserve currency for most of the world
for nearly 200 years for most of the 18th and 19th centuries .it contained to play this role until after World War two when America was forced to prop up Britain's economy with foreign aid .remember the famous Marshall Plan ,we gave billions to help European countries rebuild ?

大多数人都不知道的是，英镑在18世纪和19世纪的大部分时间里——将近200年的时间——是世界上大多数国家的储备货币。英镑一直扮演着这个角色，直到第二次世界大战后，美国被迫通过援助来帮助英国的经济。还记得着名的马歇尔计划吗？我们提供了数十亿美元来帮助欧洲国家战后重建。

unfortunately though Britain pursued a socialist national agenda ,the government took over all of the major industries like Barack Obama . Britain's leaders wanted to spread the wealth around. pretty soon the country was flat broke .the final straw for Britain came in 1967 ,when things got so bad the Labour Party the Socialists decided to due the British currency by 14 percent overnight .they believe this would make it easier for people to afford their debts. in reality what it did was make anyone holding British sterling 14% poorer overnight and it made everything in Britain much much more expensive in the coming years. and for the country as a whole,it sure did one of the worst decades in modern British history .

但不幸的是，英国采取了社会主义国家的做法，英国政府接管了所有主要的产业，就跟奥巴马总统做的一样。英国的领导人想要均分财富。很快，这个国家就陷入了困境，压垮英国的最后一根稻草出现在1967年。当时情况变得如此糟糕，以至于工党（社会主义者）决定在一夜之间让英镑贬值14%，他们相信这会让人们还贷变得更加轻松。（译者注：当时政府的逻辑是，假设物价不变，一斤米1块钱。原来100块钱能买100斤米，贬值后100块钱只能买86斤。所以，如果贷款100元，换算成大米的话原来需要还100斤大米，而现在只需还86斤，因而债务人还贷变轻松些了）。
但是实际上，这只会导致任何拥有英镑的人，一夜之间财富缩水14%。并且这使英国的物价在随后的几年里上涨。并且对于整个国家来说，20世纪60年代无疑是英国现代史上，最糟糕的十年之一。

most Americans don't know about Britain's “winter of discontent” in the late 1970s when the government put a freeze on wages .there were continuous strikes in nearly every sector .grave diggers ,trash collectors, even hospital workers. things got so bad at one point that many hospitals were reduced to accepting emergency patients. only in 1975 inflation in Britain skyrocketed twenty six point nine percent in a single year .the government also imposed what was known as the” three day week” in 1974 ,and businesses were limited to using electricity for only three specified consecutive days each week ,and they were prohibited from working longer hours on those days. television companies were required ceased broadcasting at 10:30 p.m. to save electricity. the extreme problems and the economy led to Britain being nicknamed the sick man of Europe。imagine Britain was a global superpower for a hundred and fifty years but when they started intentionally duing their currency things went straight downhill .maybe you don't think something similar could happen here but I'm telling you it's already underway.

大多数美国人都不知道上世纪70年代末，英国政府冻结了工资（译者注：政府以法令的形式将工资限定在某一个水平），英国国内发生了的“不满的冬天”运动。几乎每个行业都有持续的罢工，挖墓穴的工人，清洁工，甚至是医院工作者。当时事情是如此糟糕，以至于许多医院简化到只接受急救患者。仅仅1975年一年之内，英国通胀率飙升了26个百分点。
政府于1974年出台了“每周三天制”。即，企业每周只能在，指定的连续的三天内使用电力，并且在这三天禁止加班。广播公司在晚上10:30之后要停止广播以节约用电。经济上的极端困难，导致英国当时被称为“欧洲病夫”。
想象一下，英国在此之前的150年间一直都是世界上的超级大国。但当他们开始刻意使本币贬值时，英国开始急剧的的走向下坡路。也许你认为类似的事情不可能发生在美国,但是我告诉你，它已经在发生了。

[3] The Decline Of The US Dollar/Rising Prices

美元贬值/物价上涨

In fact the exchange value of the US dollar has fall one about 13% since June 2010, and it's rate of decline is accelerating .what happened to the British currency is now happening to the u.s. as Barron's recently reported:” when the monetary history is written decades from now 2010 could be a watershed marking the beginning of the end of the dollar based western-centric monetary system” .as the u.s. dollar continues to lose its position as the world's currency, gas oil and other commodities will continue to skyrocket. almost everything we consume will immediately get more expensive .all the clothing furniture and household goods we import from China ,all the food we get from Central and South America, all the electronics television computers and cars we get from Asia and Europe. in fact it's happening, right now before our eyes .everything is getting more expensive each week .

实际上美元汇率自2010年6月以来已经下跌了13%，并且下跌的速度还在增加。曾经发生在英镑身上的事情正在美元身上重演。正如最近道琼斯旗下的巴伦周刊（Barron's）中所写的那样“如果以今天为起点撰写今后几十年的货币历史，2010年将会将成为一个分水岭，它标志着以西方为中心的，以美元为基础的货币体系的终结。”随着美元逐渐失去其作为世界货币的地位，天然气和其他大宗商品将继续飙升（译者注：货币贬值，物价飙升）。我们消费的几乎所有东西都会立即变得更加昂贵，例如所有从中国进口的服装家具和家居用品，我们从中美洲和南美洲购买的所有食物，从亚洲和欧洲进口的所有电视，电脑以及汽车。事实上，这些正在发生，我们亲眼所见。所有东西都是一周比一周贵。

The Wall Street Journal has a section called cash prices , it lists dozens of commodities everything from wool zinc 10 and pork to gold silver platinum and lead. I recently checked these listings in the papers March 1st  2011 edition. and the numbers were mind-boggling , of the 88 prices quoted, 85 items are more expensive today than they were just a year ago. many significantly so .oil is up more than 50 percent from a year ago ,silver is up more than a hundred percent ,so is cotton and coffee .Tin is up 90 percent ,oats are up more than 70 percent so is wheat ,butter is up more than 40 percent so is sugar ,a of the 88 price is quoted the only three physical commodities that are cheaper today than they were a year ago .

《华尔街日报》上每周都有一个叫做“现金价格”的板块，它罗列了几十种大宗商品的价格，从羊毛、锌、猪肉到金、银、铂、和铅。我最近翻阅了一下2011年3月1日出版的，华尔街日报上面的这个板块，我发现那些价格真的令人难以置信。上面罗列的88种商品中，有85种都要比一年前的价格贵，许多商品价格上涨幅度很大。油较上年同期增长逾50%；银、棉花和咖啡则上涨了100%； 锡上涨了90%，燕麦和小麦上涨率70%以上；黄油和白糖则上涨了40%以上。并且，罗列的88种商品价格中，只有3种商品比一年前便宜。

natural gas eggs and chickens everything is more expensive. in some cases much more expensive and yet the government says there is no inflation .how is that possible. it's unbelievable to me that they think the American public is going to fall for this.US business has been caught on.as Wesley Card, the head of a clothing company that includes brands like Dockers and Anne Klein recently said:” it's really a no choice situation ,prices have to come up.”

天然气，鸡蛋，鸡肉。所有都变得更贵了！并且有的东西是...非常贵。但是政府却说没有通货膨胀，这怎么可能。让我难以相信的是,他们却认为美国公众会喜欢现在这种情况。美国企业已经受到了牵连。正如旗下拥有Dockers、Anne Klein等品牌的，美国服装公司翘楚Wesley Card表示的那样：“这种形势真的别无选择，价格必须上涨。”