人民币为何能替代美元（2） [美国媒体]

[4] The Run On The US Dollar/Why The Government And Banks Lie To The Public

挤兑美元/为什么政府和银行对公众撒谎



   and the point here is simple: as we print more money ,the price of the world's most essential commodities have soared. this is not a coincidence .around the world ,as we print ,prices soar... citizens protest... governments get overthrown .and it's only going to get worse.because we cannotstop printing because we can't actually afford our existing debts. no one wants you to know this. no one. that's why despite the obvious inflation going on all around the world the Fed continues to say there's no inflation at all .and that's the scary part ,to me.

道理很简单：当我们增印美元的时候，世界上主要的大宗商品价格自然要飙升。这并不是巧合，在世界各地，当我们增印美元钞票时，价格飙升...公民抗议...政府被推翻，（译者注：作者指的应该是“颜色革命”）而且事情只会朝更糟的方向发展。因为我们不能停止印刷钞票，不然的话我们负担不起现有的债务。没有人想让你知道这些。没有一个人。这就是为什么尽管世界各地都出现了明显的通胀，但美联储仍然说根本没有通胀。对我来说这才是最可怕的。

just like in a banana republic, the government is radically duing the dollar and totally lying to everyone about what is really happening. whether you realize it or not ,there is already a “run” on the dollar .many of our creditors like the Chinese are getting out of the dollar as fast as they can via strategic commodities ,like copper. that's partly why commodity prices are soaring .unfortunately skyrocketing commodity prices are just the beginning .there are other disastrous consequences to the US .dollar losing status as the world's currency for.

就像在巴拿马共和国发生的一样，政府实际上正在从根本上使美元贬值（译者注：美元可以在巴拿马流通，而巴拿马自己发行的货币与美元兑换比例是1：1，所以巴拿马实际上没有自己的货币，可以说他们是用的就是美元），但是却对公民撒谎，歪曲事实。无论你是否意识到这一点，确实已经出现了“挤兑”美元的情况。我们的许多债权国，比如中国，正通过像铜这样的战略性大宗商品，尽可能快地摆脱美元（译者注：国际上大宗商品用美元计价，所以可以通过购买大宗商品减少美元持有量）。这就是大宗商品价格飙升的部分原因。不幸的是，大宗商品价格的飙升只是一个开始，对美国还有其他更加灾难性的后果——美元失去世界货币的地位。

there would be much less demand for US dollars around the globe ,so interest rates will skyrocket. already just look at how quickly rates have moved up in the past six months ....instead of getting a mortgage at today's low rates of 5% ,it may soon cost you 8 percent or even 10 percent 15 percent. imagine what that would do to housing prices. stock prices will likely plummet by at least 40 percent in a matter of weeks as a result of this event and the currency markets. it will cost every American business a lot more money for supplies and materials. no one will be able to get a loan and no bank will want to make loans.

这样的话，世界对美元的需求将会大大减少，因此美国国内利率将会飙升（译者注：美元需求疲软意味着世界对美国投资兴趣减少，会出现资本外逃。提高美国国内利率之后，持有美元的存款利息会上升，因而增加美元的吸引力，可以部分抑制资本外逃）。在过去的六个月里我们已经看到了，利率上升的速度是多么的快。不久之后可能你的房贷利率就会变成8%甚至10%的15%，而不是现在廉价的5%。想象一下这会对房价造成什么影响。受利率上升和货币贬值的影响，股票价格在几周内可能会暴跌至少40%。这将使美国的企业花费更多的钱来购买物资和材料。没有人能得到贷款，也没有银行愿意贷款。

in short when the US dollar loses its spot as the world's reserve currency, it will cause a brutal downturn in the economy, which I expect will be about 10 times worse than the mortgage crisis of 2008.as Barron's recently reported:” the demand for dollars from the rest of the world has been of an inestimable benefit to the US economy. it quite simply allows Americans to consume more than they produce and save less than they invest. in other words, to live beyond our means.” what will also happen as a result of this currency crisis ,and the end of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, will be massive inflation, the likes of which we have never seen before. when everyone is trying to get rid of their dollars, the government is printing more and more to pay debts, and no one wants to own them, the crisis will reach epic proportions.

简而言之，当美元失去其世界储备货币的地位时，将导致经济的严重衰退，我估计这将比2008年的次贷危机还要糟糕10倍。正如Barron's最近报道的那样：“世界其他国家需要美元，这给美国带来的好处是不可估量的。它让美国人可以很轻松的，消费超过生产，投资少于储蓄。换句话说，就是让我们入不敷出。”由于这场金融危机，以及美元作为世界储备货币地位的终结，将会导致大规模的通货膨胀，这种规模是我们从未见过的。当每个人都在试图抛售美元，而美国政府却在印刷更多的，没有人愿意接受的美钞来偿还债务时，这场危机将达到“史诗”般的规模。

[5] The Story Of The European Country Yugoslavia In The 1990's

   90年代南斯拉夫的故事

just look, for example, at what happened to one European country that faced this type of crisis in the 1990s. this is what happens during a major hyperinflation in the real world. in the early 1990s, the national government of one european nation had spent nearly all of its savings. so what did they do next? Simple.... they began to steal the savings of private citizens by limiting people's access to their money in government-controlled banks. and of course to finance the daily operations of maintaining their basic infrastructure, they started printing money, big time.even so the country's basic infrastructure began to fall apart. there were potholes in the street, broken water pipes... elevators that never got repaired... an entire construction projects that simply shut down, before being completed. the unemployment rate was more than 30percent... and the government just kept printing money. as San Jose State University economics professor dr. Thayer Watkins, and expert on countries that try to inflate their way out of big debts, wrote on this particular disaster:”the government tried to counter the inflation by imposing price controls. but when inflation continued, the government price controls made the price producers were getting so ridiculously low that they simply stopped producing. Baker's stopped making bread...slaughterhouses refused to sell meat to the stores... other stores closed down.”

我们看看上世纪90年代，面临这种危机的南斯拉夫发生了什么。这是现实世界发生恶性通货膨胀的例子。在20世纪90年代初期，南斯拉夫几乎花光了所有的政府储蓄。那么他们接下来做了什么呢？很简单....他们开始通过限制人们到政府控制的银行取钱，来窃取公民的私人储蓄。当然，为了维持基础设施的日常运营，他们开始印刷钞票，大范围地印刷。即便如此，这个国家的基础设施也开始瓦解。街道上有坑洞，水管破裂，年久失修的电梯，烂尾的建筑项目，失业率超过了30%。而政府就是一直在印钞票。正如圣何塞州立大学经济学教授，研究通过通货膨胀摆脱债务的专家，塞耶•瓦特金斯博士所写的那样：“政府试图通过实施价格控制来遏制通胀。但是，当通货膨胀继续时，政府的价格控制使得生产者的利润变得非常低，以至于他们干脆停止了生产。面包店的停止烤面包，屠宰场拒绝向商店出售（鸡牛）肉，其他商店则关门歇业。”

so what did the government do next to try to curb inflation? Well, one bright idea they had was the four stores to fill out government documents every time they increase prices. they thought that this would slow down price increases, because the paperwork would take so much time. but like many government plans, this one had terrible unintended consequences. since stores had to dedicate an employee to do nothing but register this paperwork, and since the process took so long..... stores began to raise prices on basic goods at even higher rates ,so that they didn't have to come back and file more paperwork! Incredible! isn't it?

那么，政府接下来采取什么措施来抑制通货膨胀呢？好吧，他们有一个聪明的想法，那就是要求商店在每次提价时都要填写一份政府文件。他们认为这会抑制价格的上涨，因为文书工作要花很多时间。但就像许多政府的规划一样，这一措施产生了可怕的意想不到的后果。
商店不得不指定一个员工其他什么都不做，专门填写政府文件，而且还是要花费大量时间。因此商店开始更大幅的提高基本商品的价格，这样他们就可以少填几次文件了！难以置信!
不是吗?

so next the government created a new currency....which basically removed six zeros from the old one, so a hundred million old units were soon worth a hundred new units. of course this didn't work either.. it never does. between October of 1993 in January 1995,prices increased by, get this: five quadrillion percent. in other words, a loaf of bread that cost one dollar in 1993, suddenly cost 50 trillion and one dollar. yes that's 50 trillion. I know it's laughable but I can guarantee that the people of this once proud European country weren't laughing one bit, especially those living on a fixed income. of course at this point, the country completely fell apart. as dr.Thayer Watkins further erode:“the social structure began to collapse. thieves robbed hospitals and clinics of scarce pharmaceuticals and then sold them in front of the same places they robbed.the railway workers went on strike and closed down the country's rail system.”

因此，接下来政府发行了一种新的货币……新币基本上是从原来货币上去掉6个零，所以原来的1亿旧币仅相当于100新币。当然，这也不管用，并且这种方法也从来没有奏效过。从1993年10月到1995年1月，价格上涨了五十万亿倍。换句话说，在1993年，如果一块面包的价格是1元，现在突然间价格就变成了50万亿美元。是的,是50万亿。我知道这很可笑，但我可以保证，对于这个曾经辉煌的欧洲国家的人们来说，这一点也不好笑，尤其是那些靠固定收入生活的人们。当然，从这个角度看，这个国家完全崩溃了。正如thayer Watkins博士进一步指出：“社会系统开始崩溃。盗贼抢劫了医院和诊所的稀缺药品，然后就地进行买卖。铁路工人罢工，关闭了国家的铁路系统。”

at this point,businesses and citizens across the country basically refused to take the local currency. Instead, everyone started dealing in German marks.keep in mind the daily rate of inflation was nearly 100 percent. can you imagine the panic in society when the price of just about everything doubles every single day? it was absolute pandemonium,and the economy basically came to a grinding halt. it was like living in a war zone. truckers stopped delivering goods. Stores, restaurants and gas stations all shut down.and in another ridiculous government move, the government actually made it illegal to not accept a personal check.imagine... you could write a check... and in several days that it typically takes for a check to clear, inflation would wipe out almost all of the cost of covering your check.of course, as is typical, the government took none of the blame. as dr. Thayer Watkins reported, the government's official position was that the hyperinflation occurred:” because of the unjustly implemented sanctions against the people and state”. again... I know what you're thinking... just because it happened in Europe doesn't mean it can happen here, right?

此时，全国的企业和公民基本上都拒绝接受本国货币。相反，每个人都开始使用德国马克。要知道，当时每天的通货膨胀率几乎是百分之百。当每样东西的价格一天翻一倍的时候，你能想象到人们的恐慌程度吗？当时是一片混乱，经济基本上陷入了停滞。就像生活在战区一样，卡车司机停止运输货物，商店、餐馆和加油站都关门了。
政府还采取了另一项荒谬的措施，规定必须要接受个人支票，否则是违法的。想象一下，你可以写一张支票，而清偿支票通常需要几天的时间，但是这段时间内通货膨胀会让你收到的支票一文不值（译者注：10000块钱的支票，物价一天翻一倍的话，4天之后就只相当于625块钱了）。
当然，就像通常的情况一样，政府却不承担任何责任。正如Thayer Watkins博士所写的，政府的官方立场是恶性通货膨胀的原因：“因为对人民和国家进行了不公正的制裁”。同样，
我知道你在想什么。因为这发生在欧洲，所以并不意味着它会在我们这里发生，对吗？