所以说，为什么川普不能和台湾通电话？ [美国媒体]

So, Why Can't You Call Taiwan?

所以说，为什么川普不能和台湾通电话？



President-elect Donald Trump has committed a sharp breachof protocol—one that underscores just how weird some important protocols are.

川普此举打破了外交上的协定，却格外凸显了协定本身的荒诞不经。

It’s hardly remembered now, having been overshadowed a fewmonths later on September 11, but the George W. Bush administration’s firstforeign-policy crisis came in the South China Sea. On April 1, 2001, a U.S.Navy surveillance plane collided with a Chinese jet near Hainan Island. Thepilot of the Chinese jet was killed, and the American plane was forced to landand its crew was held hostage for 11 days, until a diplomatic agreement wasworked out. Sino-American relations remained tense for some time.

现在人们或许想不起来了：就在新闻被911事件淹没前的几个月，布什政府刚遭遇了一场有关南海的外交危机。2001年4与1日，一艘美国侦察机与中国战机在海南岛附近发生冲突。中国的飞行员死亡，而美军飞机被迫降落，其上成员被扣押长达11天，直到两国达成外交协定才获得自由。中国关系一度陷入紧张局面。

Unlike Bush, Donald Trump didn’t need to wait to beinaugurated to set off a crisis in the relationship. He managed that on Friday,with a phone call with the president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen. It’s a sharpbreach with protocol, but it’s also just the sort that underscores how weirdand incomprehensible some important protocols are.
和布什不同，川普尚未登基，已经能掀起波澜。周五他表示自己与台湾的总统（the president of Taiwan）通了电话，此举打破了外交上的协定，却格外凸显了协定本身的荒诞不经。

Trump’s call was first reported by the Financial Times, butthe Trump campaign soon confirmed it and issued a readout of the conversation:
President-elect Trump spoke with President Tsai Ing-wen ofTaiwan, who offered her congratulations. During the discussion, they noted theclose economic, political, and security ties exists between Taiwan and theUnited States. President-elect Trump also congratulated President Tsai onbecoming President of Taiwan earlier this year.

通电一事最初由《金融时报》报道，随后川普的团队确认了此事，并表示：总统当选人川普与台湾总统蔡英文进行了对话。谈话期间，蔡向川普表示了祝贺，双方特别指出了台湾和美国间紧密的经济、政治和安全纽带。川普还对蔡英文在今年早些时候成功当选台湾总统表示了祝贺。

Why would Trump not speak with Tsai? Here’s where thestrangeness starts. The U.S. maintains a strong “unofficial” relationship withTaiwan, including providing it with “defensive” weapons, while also refusing torecognize its independence and pressuring Taiwanese leaders not to upset afragile but functional status quo. It’s the sort of fiction that is obvious toall involved, but on which diplomacy is built: All parties agree to believe inthe fiction for the sake of getting along.

川普为什么不能和蔡英文对话呢？这就是奇怪之处了。美国一直以来和台湾维持着一种牢固的“非官方”关系，包括为台湾提供“防御性”武器，却又拒绝承认对方的独立地位，还对台湾领导人施压，迫使对方不去打破脆弱的现状。虽然大家都心知肚明，然而这就是外交：为了能够和睦相处下去，所以就先假装相信这回事儿吧。

The roots of this particular fiction date to 1949, whenChiang Kai-shek’s Republic of China was routed by Mao Zedong and theCommunists, and Chiang fled to Taiwan. The U.S., in Cold War mode, continued torecognize the ROC in Taiwan as China’s rightful government, and so did theUnited Nations. But in 1971, the UN changed course, recognizing the People’sRepublic of China—or as it was often called then, Red China—as the legitimategovernment. In 1979, the United States followed suit. Crucially, the communiquéproclaiming that recognition noted, “The Government of the United States ofAmerica acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China andTaiwan is part of China.”

这种假象之所以形成，要追溯到1949年中华民国被毛和共产党推翻，蒋败逃到台湾的时候。由于冷战的关系，美国仍旧将台湾的中华民国视为中国的合法政府，联合国也是这样的看法。然而到了1971年，联合国转而承认中华人民共和国（当时一般称作红色中国）为合法政府。随后美国也于1979年进行了承认，关键在于两国发表了一份公告，上面写着：“美国政府承认一个中国，台湾是中国的一部分。”

Officially, this has also been the policy of Taiwan foralmost a quarter century. Under the 1992 Consensus, another artful diplomaticfiction, both Taipei and Beijing agreed that there was only one China andagreed to disagree on which was legitimate, as well as maintaining two separatesystems. During the Bush years, the U.S. said it would defend Taiwan in anattack, but Bush also pushed back on Taiwanese moves toward independence.

这成了二十多年来对台湾的官方政策。1992年，另一个外交辞令——九二共识诞生了。台北和北京同意世界上只有一个中国，搁置争议，并继续在两岸实行两套体制。布什执政期间，美国曾表示愿为台湾提供保护，但他同时也在台湾人的背后推动台湾走向独立。

Despite recognizing the PRC, the U.S. has kept close tieswith Taiwan since 1979. The State Department notes that“Taiwan is the United States’ ninth largest trading partner, and the UnitedStates is Taiwan’s second largest trading partner.” More importantly, the U.S.has sold some $46 billion in arms to Taiwan since 1990, which are intended asdefensive. Last December, the Obama administration sold $1.8 billion in anti-tankmissiles, warships, and other materiel to Taipei. Of course, the “defensive”purpose to all of this is against China, the most plausible aggressor againstTaiwan. Naturally, the arms sales have consistently annoyed the Chinese.(Recently, China has been on a campaign of land-grabbing and saber-rattlingacross the South China Sea, trying to assert greater control and influence.)

尽管承认了中华人民共和国，美国自1979年以来依旧与台湾保持着紧密联系。国务院表明台湾是美国的第九大贸易伙伴，而美国则是台湾的第二大贸易伙伴。更重要的是，1990年以来，美国已经向台湾卖出了价值460亿美元的武器。去年12月奥巴马当局向台湾出售了价值18亿美元的反坦克导弹、战舰和其他物资。这些装备名为“防御性”，实则自然是全部针对中国——毕竟大家都相信中国会侵略台湾。当然了，对台军售自然也惹恼了中国（近期中国还在南海地区开展了武力威胁和掠夺土地的活动，意图进一步在该地区施加控制，增强影响力）。

Though the triangle between the U.S., China, and Taiwansometimes flares up, the general goal of all three has been to maintain thefragile status quo. By speaking to President Tsai, and praising U.S. relationswith Taiwan, Trump threatens to upset that delicate balance. Reaction to thecall was immediate and, for the most part, aghast.

尽管美、中、台之间的三角关系时常爆发危机，三者的共同目标仍然是维持脆弱的现状。然而因为蔡英文的一通电话，对美台关系的一通赞扬，川普很有可能会成为打破这脆弱平衡的那个人。中方对于这通电话立刻做出了反应，几乎可以用“惊骇”来形容。

“TheChinese leadership will see this as a highly provocative action, of historicproportions,” Evan Medeiros, former Asia director at the White House NationalSecurity Council, told the FT. “Regardless if it was deliberate or accidental,this phone call will fundamentally change China’s perceptions of Trump’sstrategic intentions for the negative. With this kind of move, Trump is settinga foundation of enduring mistrust and strategic competition for U.S.-Chinarelations.”

“中国领导层会视其为一种历史性的高度挑衅行为，”埃文·梅代罗斯，前任白宫国家安全委员会亚洲主管在接受《金融时报》采访时说道，“不管这通电话是否经过了深思熟虑，这次通电都会从根本上改变中国对川普战略意图的认知，使其向负面发展。川普做这种事，就给双方以后长期的不信任创造基础，引发中美关系的战略竞争。”

Ari Fleischer,Bush’s first White House press secretary, noted that he wasn’t even allowed torefer to a Taiwanese government. My colleague James Fallows, not generally aman given to overreaction or caps-lock, was blunter: “WHAT THE HELL????” hetweeted.

阿里·弗莱舍，布什的白宫首席发言人曾说过，他甚至不被允许提到“台湾政府”。我的同事詹姆斯·法洛斯一向是个沉着的家伙，轻易不爱发大写的语句，这次也在推特上发出了“WHAT THE HELL????”这样的推文。

As is typically the case with Trump, it’s hard to tellwhether this blithe overturning of protocol is intentional or simply a resultof not knowing, or caring, better.

由于川普的一贯表现，现在还无法判定这是川普的别有预谋，还是不顾后果，漫不经心的嘴炮——这样或许还好点。

There are various reasons Trump might be intentionallypoking China. Trump spoke harshly about China throughout his presidentialcampaign, accusing Beijing of currency manipulation, land-grabbing, and takingadvantage of the United States. He also showed a willingness, if not an eagerness,to slaughter nearly every sacred cow of American foreign policy.

如果说川普是故意激怒中国，那理由着实不少。在竞选期间，川普就曾经对中国发表严厉的抨击，指责中国政府操纵汇率，夺取土地，利用美国。对于美国外交政策中似乎最神圣不可侵犯的部分，川普也表现出了破坏他们的意愿——甚至可以说是渴望。

Some Trump confidants have suggested existing policy onTaiwan should become one of them. John Bolton, who served as Bush’s ambassadorto the UN, has been advising Trump, and Bolton has been a very public advocateof the U.S. cozying up to Taiwan in order to show strength against China.

川普的一些密友们曾透露，现今的台湾政策也要成为川普颠覆的对象。布什政府的联合国大使约翰·博尔顿现在正为川普服务，而他本人就曾公开建议美国应该和台湾发展亲密关系，以此来向中国展现力量。