台湾可以相信川普吗？小岛害怕变成超级大国间的人质 [美国媒体]

作者： Katie Hunt, CNN

发表时间： 0518 GMT (1318 HKT) 2016年12月13日



Hong Kong (CNN) When Donald Trump accepteda phone call from Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, many Taiwanese weredelighted at having a spotlight turned on their diplomatic isolation.

香港（CNN）当唐纳德·川普接听了台湾总统蔡英文的电话后，许多台湾人为这盏为他们的外交孤立点亮的明灯而欢欣鼓舞。

But that elation is turning to apprehensionas the island risks becoming a pawn in a wider game between two super powers.

但发现可能成为两个超级大国间更大博弈的人质时，这一狂喜变成了担忧。

President-elect Trump suggested Sunday thatUS support for Taiwan was negotiable and the "one China" policy thathas governed relations between the three governments for decades could be asource of leverage to force concessions from China on other issues.

当选总统唐纳德·川普周日说美国对台湾的支持可以讨论，三个政府间保持几十年的“一个中国”政策可以被当作迫使中国从其他问题让步的杠杆。

"Being the lever isn't a good placefor Taiwan," said Joanna Lei, a former legislator who now heads the ChungHua 21th Century Think Tank in Taipei.

“被当成杠杆对台湾来说不是什么好事，”雷倩，前立法委员，目前任台北中华21世纪智库协会执行长。

"China can't make a hasty move on theUS or Donald Trump, but China can easily make a move on Taiwan," she said.

“中国不会对美国或唐纳德·川普采取莽撞行动，但是中国可以轻松对台湾动手，”她说。

"So if China is going to lean, whichside are they going to lean on? Of course they will lean on Taiwan."

“所以如果中国要选边的话，他们会选择哪一边？当然他们会选台湾。”



China has already stepped up air patrolsaround Taiwan and the wider region.

中国已经强化了对于台湾周边以及更广大区域的飞行巡逻。

On Saturday, Chinese military aircraftcircled the international airspace surrounding Taiwan, prompting Japan'smilitary to scramble fighter jets over an alleged trespass.

周六，中国空军飞机环绕台湾周边的国际空域飞行，日本宣称遭到入侵并紧急起飞战机。

And on December 7 and 8, China flewnuclear-capable bombers over its claims in the disputed waters of the SouthChina Sea.

在12月7日和8日，中国可搭载核武器的轰炸机在其声称主权的南中国海争议区域飞行。

"Although all parties maintained theircool and avoided a clash, a war of nerves in the Asia-Pacific region is underway," the Taipei Times said in an editorial Tuesday.

“尽管各方都保持冷静并避免冲突，一场神经战已经在亚太地区展开，“台北时报在周二的一篇社论中说。

And Fitch, a ratings agency, has said thatthe risks of an economic shock to Taiwan were low but have risen.

评级机构惠誉说，台湾发生经济震荡的风险虽然很低，但正在增加。



Bargaining chip?

交易筹码？

White House Press Secretary Josh Earnestsaid Monday that President Barack Obama doesn't view the US relationship withTaiwan as a bargaining chip, and said that agreements on climate change andNorth Korea would be more difficult if that policy is changed.

白宫新闻发言人乔什·厄内斯特周一说，巴拉克·奥巴马总统不认为美台关系是交易筹码，并说如果这一政策改变的话，关于气候改变和北朝鲜的协议将更难达成。

But Trump's comments in an interview on"Fox News Sunday" suggested that the incoming administration wouldn'tbe constrained by the "one China" policy.

但是根据“周日福克斯新闻“对川普的一次采访，川普说他的即将成立的政府将不会恪守”一个中国“政策。

"I fully understand the 'one China'policy, but I don't know why we have to be bound by a 'one China' policy unlesswe make a deal with China having to do with other things, includingtrade," Trump said.

“我完全理解‘一个中国’政策，但是我不知道如果我们不能让中国做点其他事情，包括贸易的话，我们为什么还要受‘一个中国’政策的限制。“川普说。

"I mean, look, we're being hurt verybadly by China with duation, with taxing us heavy at the borders when wedon't tax them, with building a massive fortress in the middle of the SouthChina Sea, which they shouldn't be doing, and frankly with not helping us atall with North Korea," he added.

“我是说，你看，我们被中国伤得很重，他们贬值人民币，对我们收高额关税，而我们却对他们免税，他们在南中国海修建大型堡垒，这事根本就不该做，而且老实说他们在北朝鲜问题上根本不帮我们，“他说。

What's in it for Taiwan?

这对台湾意味着什么？

Legislator Lo Chih-cheng, from the rulingDemocratic Progressive Party, said Taiwan didn't want to become part of a"zero sum" game.

民进党立法委员罗致政说台湾不想变成“零和游戏”的一方。

"The very issue is whether Taiwan'sinterests will be served in Mr Trump's new policy," he told CNN's NewsStream. "We are very concerned about what kind of things can be negotiatedout of this US China relationship."

“最重要的问题是台湾的利益是否能体现在川普先生的新政中，”他对CNN新闻说。“我们非常关心能从美中关系中讨论出什么东西来。”

Taiwan's presidential office has declinedto comment.

台湾总统办公室谢绝评论。

The Communist government in Beijing viewsTaiwan as a "renegade province," since Chinese nationalists fledthere and established a government after losing the civil war in 1949.

自1949年中国国民党输掉内战并撤退至台湾并建立政府之后，北京的共产党政府一直把台湾视作一个“叛变的省份”。

Both governments -- officially the People'sRepublic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC) -- claim to be thelegitimate ruler of all of China, but the ROC effectively controls only Taiwanand a few other small islands.

两个政府——中华人民共和国（PRC）和中华民国（ROC）——都宣称自己是中国的合法政府，但是中华民国政府只实际控制了台湾和一些小岛。

China talks tough in editorial

中国发表严厉社论

Trump unleashed a storm of controversy whenhe took a call from Taiwan's leader, President Tsai Ing-wen, earlier thismonth.

本月初川普接听了台湾的蔡英文总统的电话，引发了一场争议风暴。

Chinese officials were furious over thefirst conversation in decades between a Taiwanese leader and a US President orPresident-elect.

中国官方对于几十年内台湾领袖和美国总统或当选总统的第一次通话反应强烈。

China's response has been measured butclear.

中国的回应慎重但明确。

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs saidMonday that co-operation with the US would be "out of the question"if Trump doesn't stick to the "one China" policy -- a cornerstone ofbilateral relations since the establishment of diplomatic ties in the 1970s.

外交部长周一表示，如果川普不坚持“一个中国”政策——1970年代中美建立双边关系的里程碑——的话，中美之间是不可能存在合作的。

The Global Times, a provocative butstate-sanctioned tabloid, has been more scathing, calling Trump as"ignorant as a child in terms of foreign policy," and warning ofstark consequences for Taiwan and the US.

环球时报——一份挑衅但仍接收国家审查的小报——更加尖刻，称川普“在外交政策上无知得像个儿童”，并且警告称台湾和美国将面对更严酷的后果。

In an editorial published late Monday, itsaid China should consider the use of military force against Taiwan.

在上周一的一篇社论中，该报称中国会考虑对台湾动用军事手段。

"It will be a decisive battle forBeijing to safeguard its core interests. If Trump wants to play tough, Chinawill not fail," the editorial said.

“这将是北京维护核心利益的决定性一战。如果川普想玩狂野游戏，中国不会输的。”这篇社论说。

"The strength gap between China andthe US for the moment is the narrowest in history. What reason do we have toaccept a most unfair and humiliating deal from Trump?"

“中美间的力量差距已缩至历史最小，为什么我们要接受川普的最不公平和最具羞辱性的交易呢？”

CNN's Yazhou Sun,Kristie Lu Stout, JimSciutto and Serenitie Wang contributed to this report

CNN的孙亚洲（音）、Kristie Lu Stout、Jim Sciutto和Serenitie Wang对本文也做出了贡献。