以中国为首的世界看起来什么样 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：Amelia-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



The Trump administration may be accelerating "Easternization" argues Gideon Rachman.

吉迪恩 拉赫曼认为：川普的内阁可能加速“东方化”。

Next week Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to the United States to meet Donald Trump for the first time.

下周，中国的主席，将会出访美国，与特朗普进行第一次会面。

But according to Gideon Rachman the chief foreign affairs commentator for the Financial Times power is flowing in the opposite direction.

根据英国<金融时报>首席外事评论员吉Gideon Rachman：力量正在往相反的方向流动。

Rachman is far from the first analyst to argue that China and other Asian nations are rising while the Western world declines nor is he the first to cite the now-familiar statistics about China’s ballooning economy and unparalleled manufacturing might.

拉赫曼远不是第一个认为当西方世界的衰退时中国和其他亚洲国家则在崛起的分析师，他也不是第一个引用现在已被人们所熟知的有关中国膨胀经济和无与伦比制造能力的统计数据。

His contribution is to help explain some of the most confounding developments of the day—from the Middle East’s descent into anarchy to the ascent of populist politicians in the West to the emergence of nostalgia as a political force—through his theory of the “Easternization” of international affairs.

他的贡献是通过他的国际事务“东方化”理论帮忙解释如今世界最复杂的发展态势，从中东堕向无政府状态，到西方民粹政治家的崛起，再到怀旧之情作为一种政治力量的浮现。

-------------译者：Amelia-审核者：babybaober------------

“In the twenty-first century” Rachman writes in his recent book on the concept “rivalries among the nations of the Asia-Pacific region will shape global politics just as the struggles between European nations shaped world affairs for over five hundred years from 1500 onward.”

“在二十一世纪”，rachman 在他最新的书里写到:“亚太地区国家之间的竞争将改变全球政治，就像欧洲国家从1500年开始通过互相的争斗而塑造了此后500多年的世界事务一样”。

Trump in fact was an early opponent of Easternization though he used different language. The businessman first expressed some of the core themes of his 2016 campaign—that foolish free-trade deals and greedy allies were draining the United States of its greatness—in the late 1980s when the Japanese economy was booming and as the former Bush administration official Peter Feaver has noted “the joke was that the Cold War was over and Japan had won.” Today Trump argues that China is winning—and that America’s losing streak must end.

实际上川普在早期就反对东方化，尽管他用了不同的表述方式。80年代当日本经济繁荣发展时，这个商人首次表达了其2016年总统竞选中的某些核心主题，那就是可笑的自由贸易协议和贪婪的盟友耗尽了伟大的美国。在1980年末期，当日本经济像腾飞时老布什的内阁官员 Peter Feaver 说“可笑的是，冷战结束了，胜利属于日本”
当前，川普认为：中国正在获胜，美国的败绩必须停止。


-------------译者：Amelia-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Ellen R26; 5 days ago 
China's increasing their presence in Latin America and strengthening their trade relationship with Mexico. Thanks to trump.

中国正在提升他们在拉丁美洲的存在感，并巩固他们与墨西哥的贸易关系。川普的功劳。

Sofa King Dumb  @Ellen R26; 5 days ago 
Don't forget Africa China practically owns half of Africa.

别忘了非洲，中国几乎拥有半个非洲。

Wang An Shih  @Sofa King Dumb R26; 4 days ago 
Your moniker befits your comment. 
Read the following for a cogent discussion on the topic:
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/a ... eality-versus-myth/

你的评论与名字真契合。（Sofa King bumb，愚蠢的沙发大帝）
自己看链接好好学学！

-------------译者：dantepushkin-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

flavaflav56  @Wang An Shih R26; 3 days ago
You put too much faith in monikers. I hope you don't believe there is a democracy in America simply because people from institutions like Brookings say it is so. In any case Brookings cogent discussion is a hallow one. China is indeed 'buying up' the Third World. In my own country they are gobbling up prime real estate and they are not opaque about it. The people at Brookings are obviously armchair researchers. If you want to know what China is really doing in Africa listen to actual Africans.

你对于绰号有太大的信心了。我希望你不会纯粹因为如布鲁金斯（美国着名智库）这样的建制组织说了就相信美国是有民主的。任何情况下布鲁金斯有说服力的讨论是脱离现实的。中国的确是在“买起”整个第三世界。他们在我的国家鲸吞下主要的地产项目而且也并非不透明。这些布鲁金斯的研究员明显都是“座椅调查员”。如果你想知道中国正在非洲做什么就该问真正的非洲人。

Wang An Shih  @flavaflav56 R26; 3 days ago 
Your country??? Just got back from 3 months in Tanzania. Previously spent six + years living and working in West Africa (EG & Guinea). Saw quite a few Chinese contractors on EPC projects and "mom & pop" shops restaurants bars etc. but witnessed no major "buying sprees". If the Chinese are indeed gobbling up prime real estate in your country you need to focus not only on who is buying but also on who is selling. Unfortunately greed and corruption are universal.

你的国家？？？刚刚去了坦桑尼亚3个月。之前还在西非（赤道几内亚和几内亚）生活和居住了超过6年。看到了不少中国承建商包揽工程总承包项目（engineeringprocurementconstruction）还有“家庭式”（mom & pop）式的商铺餐厅酒吧等，但并没有看到任何重大的“疯狂购买”行为。如果中国人真的“鲸吞”下了你国家的主要地产项目，你需要关注的不只是谁是买方，还要看看谁是卖方。遗憾的是贪婪和腐败是世界性的。

-------------译者：dantepushkin-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Elvis  @Ellen R26; 4 days ago 
About bloody time. Fact is as long as Mexico's economy is tied to that of the United States it's fate will be at the mercy of America.

也该是时候了。事实是只要墨西哥的经济一天还是跟美国捆绑，他的命运就完全取决于美国的怜悯。

If Americans want Mexicans to stop migrating north and Mexico wants to be treated with respect it needs to put an end to that vulnerability.

如果美国人希望墨西哥人不再往北移民，墨西哥人希望被尊重对待，墨西哥需要终结它那脆弱的经济体系。

Diversify it's international trade so if there is a recession north of the border (or a wall is built) trade with the Far East and/or South America provides a cushion.

要把国际贸易多样化，即使未来北边出现萧条（或者盖起高墙）也可以透过远东和／或南美贸易作为缓冲。

If necessary reach out to either Russia or China and get their help modernizing the armed forces. Afraid of "gringo imperialism"? Not happening if you got Russian or Chinese military forces at a base or two in Mexico

如有需要的话可以向俄罗斯或中国寻求帮帮助并把军队现代化。 害怕外国佬的帝国主义？只要俄罗斯或中国军队部署一两个军事基地在墨西哥就不会发生了。

Ellen  @Elvis R26; 4 days ago 
If I were Mexico I'd toss out Americans and "reclaim" all the resorts condos and time shares etc.

如果我是墨西哥的话我会踢走美国人并“夺回”所有会所别墅和时权酒店等等。

-------------译者：dantepushkin-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Elvis  @Ellen R26; 4 days ago 
Nah Mexico needs to keep its reputation as being investor friendly. The ultimate revenge for Mexico is to become a treaty ally of either Russia or China. Remember part of the reason we are able to focus elsewhere is we have no threats next door which means our money is focused on the navy.

不会啊 墨西哥需要维持自己投资友好的声誉。墨西哥最终极的报复是投向俄罗斯或中国成为协议盟友。 要记得我们之所以能够集中海军发展海外是因为我们邻土没有威胁。

Imagine a Mexico with ballistic & cruise missiles. Providing docking facilities for Russian and/or Chinese submarines. Air bases from which Russian and/or Chinese bombers and stealth fighters are based. Literally a dagger pointed at our underbelly. Not to mention the ultimate sanctuary for the drug cartels and/or anti-American insurgents / terrorists.

想象一个拥有弹道导弹和巡航导弹的墨西哥。为俄罗斯或／和中国潜艇提供停靠设施。为俄罗斯或／和中国轰炸机和隐形战斗机提供可以停泊的空军基地。这简直就是一把直插肚腩的短匕啊。更别提成为一个窝藏毒枭和反美组织和恐怖分子的终极避难所。

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PERICLES  @Elvis R26; 4 days ago 
Are you crazy? No sane Mexican leader would EVER do such a thing. Russia and China are completely navally subordinate to the United States. The US wouldn't let that kind of advanced weaponry get anywhere near a hostile Mexico. Not to mention Mexico's biggest trade partner is us. They would be economically devastated. If Mexico ever turned truly hostile they would face a huge destructive military campaign of destroying Mexico's central government making it anarchous probably followed by a militarization of the border to stop potential retaliation raids.

你在瞎bb什么？只要是正常墨西哥领导人都不会去做这么智障的事好吗。俄罗斯和中国的海军实力加起来都还不够美国海军看的，美国人也不会允许任何先进武器落入对自己有敌意墨西哥人手里，更别谈美国是墨西哥的最大贸易伙伴，分分钟让你经济崩溃啊。如果墨西哥对美国展现真正的敌意的话，结果就是一场浩大的军事行动直接打掉你的中央政府让你成为无政府状态，再把边界军事化防止报复行动就好。

Kevin Love  @PERICLES R26; 4 days ago 
Yes that is right. Remember the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis? No sane Mexican leader wants to undergo that experience.

呵呵，还记得1962年古巴导弹危机吗？智障墨西哥领导人可是会想做一下这种事呢。

However an economic diversification is a different story. Chinese investment in Mexico is currently happening and will doubtless continue.

然而，在经济多样化的今天形式有所不同。 中国对墨西哥的投资时刻都在发生，而且无疑将一直持续下去。

In today's world economic independence is true independence. If both China and the USA are major trade and investment partners then that provides a much greater degree of independence to Mexico.

在当今世界经济独立才是真正的独立。如果中国和美国都是主要的贸易投资伙伴，那么这墨西哥的独立性将会更大。

-------------译者：sssssss27-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Albin R26; 4 days ago 
I have the joy in Canada of having a cable TV broadcast of CGTN (Chinese Global Television Network). Unlike the often very informative but also feverish ax-grinding Fox clone Russian Television RT - the Chinese network has a refreshingly dignified presentation and access to high grade internal and foreign academic and political thinkers. It was there not from western media that I recently heard of OBOR ("One Belt One Road" or "The New Silk Road" that I'll leave you to google to learn about a project to build international trade lixs eastward from the Beijing / Shanghai industrial powerhouse through Asia the Middle East oil centers and Europe to the shipping ports of Rotterdam.

我在加拿大看有线电视台--中国国际电视网。中国国际电视网不像（资讯丰富但目的不纯）的福克斯新闻克隆俄罗斯新闻网RT--中国节目令人耳目一新而且连线高端国内外专家和政策智库。我最近在这家中国媒体（而非西方媒体）上听说了一路一带（或新丝绸之路），再去专门谷歌一下了解到这是关于建设一条东起北京上海工业中心穿过亚洲中东能源中心到达欧洲鹿特丹的国际贸易路线。

This while the USA (not to mention the UK) is going to scrap treaties and subject its exporters to fifty or sixty bilateral arrangements. I'll leave you to google Pitney Bowes interesting tariff calculation tool for the thought experiment of selling your high quality American leather shoes or boots internationally when "The global average import duty rate for Leather shoes is 14.4% with a minimum of 0% and a maximum of 60%" and a list of nearly a hundred countries all over the map to organize your sales with. You want that or trading block?

与此同时美国（更别提英国了）打算退出所有贸易协议，让自己的出口商面对50或者60个双边协议。你去谷歌一下美国必能宝集团（供应邮资机(或邮戳机)、电子邮包秤、折纸和装信系统、邮件开包机、高端计算机输出邮寄系统、包裹跟踪系统和客户通讯管理软件等产品领域的全球领先公司。在美国500强排行榜中公司排名第461位），有意思的关税计算工具，在你将美国高质量的皮鞋出口国际时，全球的皮鞋进口关税平均达到14.4%，最低是0，最高达60%，而且有将近100个国家会管理你的皮鞋销售。所以你是想要这个的结局呢，还是想建立自由贸易协议。

Mexico and Latin America are going to turn to China and not stand looking up at The Wall with big sad eyes under their quaint sombreros. They'll be welcoming Chinese warfleets into Carib and West Coast ports to protect international seaways for the western extension of the New Silk Road.

墨西哥和拉美正在转向中国，而不是带着大草帽站在那里用悲伤的眼睛向墙上（特朗普墙）张望。他们欢迎中国舰队进入加勒比海和西海岸港口保护新丝绸之路延伸的国际海运。

David  @Albin R26; 4 days ago
Agreed

赞同。

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Kantmeout R26; 4 days ago 
The Chinese may talk a good amount about free trade but they're actual operating method is more mercantile. They would never allow other countries to prosper beyond them and are very willing to use economic might to advance their political agenda. Absent political change the Chinese will push to dominate the media space as well. They already despise free media and consider the free flow of information a threat to their regime.

中国可能高谈阔论自由贸易但他们真实的运作模式其实是商业式的。 他们永远不会允许其他国家比他们更加繁荣而且非常愿意透过经济力量来贯彻政治议程。放任下去中国还会进一步掌控媒体空间。他们本来就鄙视新闻自由而且视资讯自由作为威胁自己统治的头号大敌。