欧亚大陆正在崛起。美国将被撇在一边？ [美国媒体]

-------------译者：布拉格鸽子蛋-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



The world’s biggest geopolitical trend today is not America First or the global war on terror or Brexit or the renewed Cold War with Russia. It is the economic integration of Europe with Asia especially the European unx with China. Europe and Asia co-inhabit the world’s largest landmass Eurasia. They are increasingly connected economically as well. Trump’s protectionism and bellicosity will speed up the integration of Europe and Asia and threaten to leave the United States on the sidelines.

当今世界最大的地缘政治趋势不是美国第一，不是全球反恐战争，不是英国脱欧，也不是与俄罗斯的再次冷战，而是欧洲与亚洲尤其是欧盟与中国的经济一体化。欧洲和亚洲都位于世界上最大的陆地-欧亚大陆之上。他们的经济联系也越来越密切。川普的保护主义和好战主义将加快欧亚一体化，而美国则将被撇到一边。

-------------译者：布拉格鸽子蛋-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Geologists tell us that as a landmass Eurasia has existed for around 70 million years. And demographers tell us that Eurasia has been home to roughly two-thirds of humanity during the past 2000 years. Trade migration wars and ideas have lixed Europe and Asia throughout history (and pre-history). As Jared Diamond pointed out in his wonderful book “Guns Germs and Steel’’ the diffusion of technologies between Asia and Europe has been facilitated by Eurasia’s broad east-west orientation along climate zones. For example wheat is grown in Western Europe Eastern Europe Western Asia (e.g. Turkey Iraq and Iran) the northern stretches of South Asia (e.g. Pakistan and India) and East Asia (e.g. Myanmar and China) a wheat zone stretching 10000 kilometers.

地质学家告诉我们欧亚大陆已经存在了大约7000万年左右。人口学家告诉我们欧亚大陆是过去2000年中大约三分之二人口的故乡。商业移民战争和思想碰撞交流贯穿了欧洲和亚洲的整个历史（包括史前历史）。正如贾雷德戴蒙德在他的精彩着作《枪炮，细菌与钢铁》中指出的，欧洲与亚洲之间的技术传播受益于欧亚大陆从东向西的宽广气候带。举个例子，小麦生长在西欧、东欧、西亚（如土耳其、伊拉克和伊朗）、南亚北部带（如巴基斯坦和印度）和东亚（如缅甸和中国），整个小麦种植带绵延1万公里。

-------------译者：布拉格鸽子蛋-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Throughout history technological breakthroughs in one part of Eurasia have gradually diffused to others. Between 500AD and 1500AD technological dynamism was mostly in Asia (e.g. China) and technologies flowed from China to Europe. After 1800AD the technological dynamism was mostly in Western Europe with technological innovations flowing from Europe to Asia. Now both Europe and Asia are innovators and new technologies are flowing in both directions.

纵观整个历史，欧亚大陆某地的技术突破会逐渐传播到其他各地。在公元500年至1500年间，技术动力主要集中在亚洲（如中国），然后从中国传到欧洲。在公元1800年后，伴随着技术创新，技术动力主要集中在西欧，然后从欧洲传到亚洲。现在欧亚都是创新者，新技术在两者间双向传播。

-------------译者：布拉格鸽子蛋-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

During the 1500s to the 1700s economic interactions between East Asia and Europe were scant; both China and Japan limited contacts with Europeans as a matter of national security. With the beginnings of European industrialization interactions intensified but not so happily for Asia. Britain and France conquered large swaths of Asia and forced China at gunpoint to open its borders to trade including the import of opium forced on China by British opium traders and the British government. As the costs of transport and communications continued to decline with improvements in technology European-Asian trade intensified but with the military power and market advantage on the side of the Europeans.

1500年至1700年间东亚和欧洲的经济交流很少。出于国家安全考虑，中国和日本都限制与欧洲人的交流。随着欧洲工业化的开始，交流开始加剧，但对亚洲却不是什么好事。英国和法国征服了亚洲的大片土地，并用枪口迫使中国开放边境贸易，包括英国鸦片商和英国政府迫使中国进口鸦片。随着技术进步，运输和通讯的成本持续下降，欧亚贸易越做越大，但军事力量和市场优势都在欧洲人这边。


-------------译者：mich-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

dazzle104/09/17 07:07 PM
Sachs showing how clueless he is again

Sachs 再次展示了他说的多么的毫无根据。

the U.S the U.K and Japan are 1/3/5 in term of economic power add Canada South Korea and Israel the leading Middle East innovative economy that is where the power is especially when Germany and the gulf states side with us

美英日分别是世界第1/3/5大经济体，加上加拿大，韩国和领导中东创新经济的以色列，这就是强大，特别当德国和海湾国家站在我们一边。（这个dazzle在下面又评论了一下）

renesimard04/09/17 08:59 PM
I know it's a pain to use punctuation when you're typing on a Russian keyboard but please make an effort. Or don't - your posts are unreadable either way. Spasiba!

我知道你们在俄罗斯键盘上使用标点符号很痛苦但请至少稍稍努力下？ 或者算了吧，反正你们的发文根本没法看，谢谢！

-------------译者： 哔哩哔哩哩长-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

tjbwhs04/09/17 10:30 PM
That's really funny about the Russian keyboard! If "Dazzle" is a Russkie I notice he correctly left out his motherland! Russia is pretty pathetic isn't it? All that high-powered talent (math physics psych chess computers etc.) and not a clue about how to make use of it in a positive sense!

你说的关于俄罗斯键盘的事情还真是有意思呢！如果“Dazzle”是俄国佬，我觉得他离开自己的祖国是正确的选择！俄罗斯是个可悲的国家，不是吗？有那么多人才（数学，武物理，心理，围棋，计算机等等），却不懂得如何善用！

And tying themselves to a double-crossing punk like Trumpsky! Putin may be mean and ruthless but he can't put together a viable economy!

还紧紧围绕在一个背叛他们的无用之人身边，好比川普。普京很独断专行，但是他不可能整合好经济。

-------------译者：mich-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

MNMoore04/09/17 07:27 PM
Sachs touches all the bases except one. Globalization nullifies all the buffers that nation states created to mitigate the the class tensions and economic instability generated by unfettered capitalism. Keynsian and Monatarist interventions and laws protecting employees and the environment are all products of the nation state. There is no countervailing Global force against the systematic movement of all money into the hands of a global elite.

Sachs谈及了方方面面但还差一点。所有国家为缓解不受约束的资本主义所导致的阶级紧张和的经济不稳定性而建立的缓冲，全球化都把它们无效化了。凯恩斯政府干预，货币政策和由法律来保护员工与环境，这些都是民族国家的产物。而在全球化的背景下，我们无法阻止所有财富系统性的被转移到全球精英的口袋里。

galwaycity04/09/17 08:32 PM
Sachs did when he was advising Bernie Sanders and his campaign. Sanders had deep problems with TPP but ht wouldn't have dragged everything down trying to temper it. He and Sachs mainly wanted safeguards that American workers wouldn't be left out in the cold with TPP. That was the real problem with NAFTA. The Government took good care of the economic interests supporting it but they did virtually nothing for those left behind. A big reason for the success of Donald Trump.

在Sachs成为Bernie Sanders（美史上第一名信奉社会主义的参议员）及其竞选团队的顾问时他就这么做了。Sanders对TPP意见很大，但并不会为了扭转局面去拖累所有事情。他和Sachs主要想寻求保护措施，使美国工人不会被排除在TPP之外坐冷板凳。这就是北美自由贸易协定的问题所在。政府想好好照顾支持经济利益，但实际对于那些落在后方的群体来说，根本什么好处都不沾边。这就是特朗普为什么会得选的主要原因。（川普承诺会给这些混并不好但又不愿意拿国家补贴度日的美国工人群体提供更多工作机会改善生活。）

-------------译者：mich-审核者：yuchen------------

hockeyrover04/09/17 08:01 PM
This is the stupidest thing I've ever read. Europe can't even integrate amongst themselves yet they're going to unite with Asia and overtake the US economically? Okay then. Was hearing this 25 years ago in college. Guess it's taking its sweet time.

真是看过最愚蠢的东西。欧洲自己都无法团结起来就想联合亚洲在经济上超越美国？好吧，25年前在我上大学就听过这些。猜你在做春秋大梦。

aidandad04/10/17 12:26 PM
Governance and commerce are distinct and multinational cos operate to serve markets not nation's. The sheer volume of trade sidelines us. As Stalin supposedly said "quantity has a quality of its own". Sachs is inviting a systemic view that can be influenced if you work systemically but if you don't the system will win.

政治和经济是完全不同的，跨国合作是服务于市场的而非国家。庞大的贸易体量支撑着我们，如斯大林（Stalin）所说的“数量也有属于它的质量”。萨克斯（Sachs）提出一种抱团合作理念：如果不加入团体，那么抱团运作的那些就会赢。

shoes104/10/17 12:47 PM
Russia would live to see Europe dump us for china . Putin salivating

俄罗斯会苟延残喘到到欧洲因中国而抛弃我们的那一刻，普京正流着哈喇子等着这一幕。

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Thesecretshopper04/10/17 01:14 AM
In like a billion years the earth is going to be incinerated by the sun. Yeah crystal ball stuff is fun

地球约将在十亿年内被太阳焚毁。 是的，水晶球预知之类很有趣。

dazzle104/10/17 04:18 AM
Hey Jeffrey
where does more technological innovation it come from western capitalists.
Perhaps you should get out of the ivory tower more and see that China's slave state mentality does not work

嘿Jeffrey
技术创新大多来自西方资本家。
也许你该多多离开你的象牙塔，去发现中国在思想上奴役国民的制度并不可行。

aidandad04/10/17 12:34 PM
Daz who are you slaved to? You only post knee jerk predictable dribble to every article. Guess who invented postal service gunpowder paper etc? Hint not Western Capitalists. 
Guess who takes advantage of the US federal research programs for commercial gain with no payback to taxpayers? Hint... 
Or do you want to turn to Martin Skreli for an example of the economy building power of those WCs you admire?

dazzle你在为谁工作？每一篇都是你发布显而易见的跪舔水文，猜猜谁发明了邮政（前身就是古中国驿站），火药，造纸术等等?  提示是并非西方资本家们。
猜猜谁利用美国联邦调查项目获得商业利益 并对纳税人没有回报？ 提示是...
抑或你想成为Martin Skreli一样，在你所欣赏的西方资本家们里作为经济建设力量的榜样？(martin skeli被称为资本主义所有罪恶化身。美国80后，买断了针对艾滋，癌症等免疫缺陷特效药达拉匹林的所有权，制作成本是1usd/片，将原本售价为13.5usd/片提到750usd/片)

 -------------译者：布拉格鸽子蛋-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

garymichael04/10/17 04:57 AM
This idea is not far-fetched by any means; people can now take a train from France to Russia and then the trans Siberian rail road all the way to Vladivostok freight trains can do the same. A new age of Marco Poloism could be upon us. Of course it's a 'what if' story but it's funny how some commenters get all defensive and start lining up the adversaries in their mental game of Risk.

无论如何这个想法并不是完全不着边际。人们可以乘火车从法国到达俄罗斯，然后乘坐西伯利亚铁路一直到海参崴，货运列车也能做到。一个新马可波罗时代即将展开。当然这只是个“如果……就会怎样”的故事，但可笑的是一些网友草木皆兵，开始臆想自己的对手。

-------------译者：mich-审核者：高辛琅华------------

attaturk04/10/17 06:06 AM
Sach's view is spot on. Globalization is the reality period. It is not a question of "form of government". It is a question of technology and economic expansion. The view that America comes first makes a great campaign slogan and a lousy economic policy. The worlds great powers have no real desire for conflict what they desire are "markets". Each time we make pronouncements about "tariffs" or "border taxes" or insulting one group or another it accomplishes little other than for those nations to simply view the US as a "questionable" trading partner.
But no ideological or economic argument will sway the "American firsters". Voters will follow their "emotions" but American business will follow its pocketbook. So in the long run we shall see who wins. The globalists or the mob.

Sach的观点完全正确。全球化正在进行时。问题不在于“政府形态”，在于科技和经济的拓展。美国优先的观念打出了伟大的竞选口号和做出糟糕的经济政策。世界上的大国们并没有真正渴望冲突，他们期望的是“市场”。每次我们大声嚷嚷着“关税”或者“边境税”或者诋毁他人，所能达到的效果并不大，反而让那些国家单纯视美国为“问题多多”的贸易伙伴。
但没有任何意识形态或经济理论能阻挠“美国优先”观念者。选民将遵循他们的“情绪”，美企将遵循他们的钱包。所以从长远来看，我们会看到谁赢了：全球主义者或一群乌合之众。

 -------------译者：mich-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

caniscandida04/10/17 07:56 AM
This is very good attaturk. In principle the US should be wealthy enough for long enough to take care of its own should we ever decide that the current gross inequality that afflicts so many of us is immoral intolerable and unacceptable which it is.
But in fact with regard to "ideology" recent events have shown the weakness of representative democracy i.e. one of its principal risks: an uneducated passionate easily manipulated electorate may very easily be induced to elect an incompetent ignorant self-regarding authoritarian as head of government who will set in motion destructive policies lasting many years. The leading alternative the one-party rule of China is not really better at all and much less just and humane but is more likely to look "successful" right now and resistant to the ideological challenges it should be facing.

attaturk说得非常好。原则上，如果我们觉得当前的不平等现象是不道德的不可忍受的让我们很多人感到痛苦的，那么原则上美国应该长时间保持富有，从而有能力照顾好自己的人民。
但事实上就“意识形态”来说，近来事件暴露了代议制民主的弱点。主要的风险之一：一群未受过教育，狂热的并且易被操控选民们，可能非常容易被诱导选举上一个无能无知的利己独裁者作为政府领袖，这个人将制定破坏性后果持续多年无法缓和的政策。中国的领导换届的一党专政并非真比较优秀，而是更加不公平和忽视人权。但是目前来看更有可能看起来是“成功的”，而且对其所面临的意识形态挑战具有抵抗力。