如果中国发生严重的金融危机会怎样？ [美国媒体]

-------------译者：密室看海-审核者：映雪 散------------

What would happen if China were to go through a serious financial crisis?

如果中国发生严重的金融危机会怎样？


-------------译者：bauer-审核者：映雪 散------------

Godfree Roberts Ed.D. Education & Geopolitics University of Massachusetts Amherst (1973)
Answered 14h ago · Upvoted by Xinchun Li lives in China Gwydion Madawc Williams and Michel McGill
Fortunately we know exactly what will happen if China encounters a serious financial crisis because China has encountered many financial crises in the past. Here’s a small sample of the crises she has encountered:

Godfree Roberts 麻州大学教育和地缘政治学院
幸运的是我们确切的知道如果中国碰到金融危机会发生什么，因为在过去中国已经遇到过很多次金融危机了。下面是中国所遇到过的危机的一个小样本： 

1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt.

1990. 《经济学人》 中国的经济将陷入停滞。
 
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing

1996. 《经济学人》 中国的经济将面临硬着陆。 

1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth.

1998. 《经济学人》 中国的经济正进入滞涨危险期。
 
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.

1999. 加拿大银行：中国经济可能硬着陆。
 
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.

2000. 芝加哥论坛报： 中国货币政策敲响硬着陆丧钟

-------------译者：bauer-审核者：映雪 散------------

2001. Wilbanks Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.

2001. WST资产管理公司：中国正在硬着陆
 
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing

2002. Westchester大学：中国紧张的寻求经济软着陆 

2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China

2003. 纽约时报：银行危机使中国陷入危险 

2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?

2004. 《经济学人》：中国陨落？
 
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China

2005. 末日博士Nouriel Roubini：中国的硬着陆危险
 
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?

2006. 国际经济：中国能实现软着陆么？
 
2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?

2007. 时代周刊：中国的经济过热了吗？中国可以躲开硬着陆么？
 
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?

2008. 福布斯：中国硬着陆？
 
2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover.

2009. 财富杂志：中国的硬着陆。中国必须找到恢复的方法。
 
2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.

2010. 末日博士Nouriel Roubini: 硬着陆正在靠近中国

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2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think

2011： 商业内参：中国硬着陆也许比你想象的更近
 
2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing

2012： 美国利益：中国的糟糕经济消息：一次硬着陆
 
2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China

2013： 零对冲： 中国的一次硬着陆
 
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.

2014. CNBC: 中国的一次硬着陆
 
2015. Forbes: Congratulations You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.

2015. 福布斯：恭喜，你给自己碰到了一次中国硬着陆
 
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China

2016. 《经济学人》: 硬着陆在中国隐现
 
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash?

2017. 国家利益：中国的经济会崩溃么？
 
We know what happens to her economy when China encounters crises:

我们知道中国遇到危机时它的经济会发生什么：


 
And we know what happens to ordinary working class Chinese wages when crises happen:

我们也知道当危机发生时普通工薪阶层的工资会发生什么：


 
So be of good cheer! Invest in China and while crises come and go her economy will continue growing and so will Chinese wages. Isn’t that wonderful?

所以欢呼吧。投资中国，（反正）不管危机来去，它的的经济会继续增长而且中国人的工资也会继续增长。这不是很美妙么？

-------------译者：bloodmouse-审核者：mich------------

Steven Helferich
8h ago · 1 upvote
And each time debt heads a little bit higher. Chinese consumers can't bail the banks out like last time so it'll have the be the central government. Not sure how well that story ends…

 每次负债率都向上提高一点点。这回中国的消费者们可没法再像上次那样给银行买单了，所以这次需要中央政府出手了，我不确定这个故事会不会有个好结局。
 
Godfree Roberts
2h ago · 1 upvote
China has negligible debt compared to the USA or Japan. It’s a ‘story’ like the ones headlined above not a real-world problem.

 对比美国和日本，中国压根不在乎这点负债。这的确只是个“故事”就如这篇文章的标题，一个充满着虚假谎言的问题。

Steven Helferich
2h ago
That's simply a false claim. Local government and corporate debt and out of control.

你说的不错，地方政府债务和企业债务已经失控了

-------------译者：phil-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Godfree Roberts
2h ago
Our media sometimes make mistakes when reporting about even our own economy. When reporting about foreign economies they make even more mistakes.  Here’s a visual of the real situation: China Debt to Assets

 我们的媒体在报道自身经济的时候都会犯错。 当他们报道国外经济的时候这样的错误只会更多。
真正该看到的是中国的负债和其资产对比

Steven Helferich
1h ago
Time will tell then ;). Both Brazil and Japan thought “it’s different this time”.

时间会告诉我们答案。 如今的巴西和日本就是好例子

Kalevi Maurer
7h ago
The way some people here pretend as if no variables could damage Chinese economy and as if her growth will be infinite reminds me a lot of the past in the West. People thought exactly the same thing then we know what happened afterwards…

 人们在这儿假设没有任何变化可以对中国经济产生威胁而且认为其经济会无限增长，这让我想起了以前的西方，当时人们也持有同样的想法，但是我们都知道后来发生了什么。。。。
 
Steven Helferich
7h ago
No one ever learns that's why.

人们没有吸取经验教训，这就是原因

 -------------译者：bloodmouse-审核者：mich------------

Robert Arvanitis Long experience parsing and pricing risks across financial and physical markets
Answered 13h ago
China must maintain a difficult balancing act.

 可以肯定的是中国正在艰难的保持平衡。

Introducing features of the free markets has had great benefits. When prices are set by supply and demand then capital moves to its highest and best uses and production is properly directed. That has guided China’s export industries.

 引入市场经济的特点会带来很大的好处。当商品价格被市场的供求确定以后，资本以最高效和最有益的方式流动的同时去恰到好处地指挥生产。以此来指导中国的出口工业。

But by allowing more freedom in markets the rulers of China risk stirring up popular demands for a greater share of the prosperity and desire for personal/political freedom.

给与市场更多自由的同时 中国的统治者们会面临以下的风险 即激起民众要求分享更大份额的经济繁荣的成果的呼声 以及民众对个人/政治自由的渴求.

So here’s the balancing act: allowing enough prosperity to reach the masses despite layers of kleptocrats bureaucrats and “young princes” which stand between the top tyrants and the people.

那么 两难的权衡就在于 在允许足够经济繁荣的成果惠及大众的同时 也要忍受处于专制统治者之下和人民之上的、以权谋私的官僚和官二代们.

-------------译者：路人某甲-审核者：mich------------

Any economic crisis (bad debts banks trade war…) will set the junior royalty in conflict with the people destabilizing the country. Imagine a sand pile. When it gets too tall (too much difference between the top and the bottom) part of the pile collapses and slides down. That’s what happens in China in a crisis.
 
任何经济危机（呆坏账银行贸易战争balabla……）都会使基层税务陷入困境并带来人民对国家稳定的破坏。就比如说一个沙堆。当这个沙堆堆得太高（从底部到顶部差别过大），一部分沙堆就会崩溃滑落。这就是中国经济危机时会发生的事情。

China is a major economy but it is built on import of inputs a modest value-add from cheap labor and then export of somewhat-higher value exports. A disruption cuts world demand for those inputs and hurts the cheap Chinese labor brewing more trouble.
 
中国是一个重要的经济体，但是她（的经济）基于一种”进口廉价劳工生产的中等经济附加值产品并出口任何多少能赚到一点钱出口产品“的模式。（这句拗口的话主要是诟病中国产品附加值低）一场世界性的动荡将会削减对那种进口的（中等附加值）产品的需求，并且伤害中国的廉价劳工，酝酿出很多麻烦。

（ps：这个人的话我十分不信服，他召唤一场世界经济动荡来促成中国经济危机，但是由于中国巨大的生产力和内需市场，这场危机中中国只会比美日收到更少伤害）