特朗普团队正在叙利亚重蹈奥巴马覆辙【华盛顿邮报】 [美国媒体]

The Trump team is repeating Obama's mistakes in Syria

特朗普团队正在叙利亚重蹈奥巴马覆辙

By Josh Rogin    July 23



Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with President Trump at the Group of 20 summit in Hamburg on July 7.

7月7日，在汉堡举行的20国集团峰会上，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京会见了特朗普总统。

Trump administration officials consistently point back to the Obama administration's failed Syria policy to justify their approach, which includes teaming up with Russia, accepting the continued rule of Bashar al-Assad and abandoning many of the rebels America supported for years.

特朗普政府官员一直在指责奥巴马政府失败的叙利亚政策以证明他们的做法是正确的，其中包括与俄罗斯合作接受巴沙尔·阿萨德的继续统治，并放弃多年来美国支持的很多反对派。

But although the Trump team inherited a terrible hand in Syria, the way it is playing it repeats the same fundamental mistakes made by President Barack Obama — and it will likely have the same negative results for the Syrian conflict, as well as for American interests.

但是，尽管特朗普团队在叙利亚继承了一个烂摊子，但他的玩法重复了美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马所犯的同样的根本性错误——它造成了同样的负面后果，不仅是对叙利亚冲突还是对美国的利益。

Last week at the Aspen Security Forum, CIA Director Mike Pompeo laid out what he sees as US interests in Syria. He said the United States has two principal enemies there, the Islamic State and Iran. In addition to stopping Iran from establishing a zone of control that spans the region, the US goal is “providing the conditions to have a more stable Middle East to keep America safe.”

上周，在阿斯本安全论坛，美国中央情报局局长迈克·蓬佩奥列举了他认为的美国在叙利亚的利益。他说，美国在那里有两个主要的敌人，伊斯兰国(IS)和伊朗。除了阻止伊朗建立一个跨越该地区的控制地带，美国的目标是“提供条件拥有一个更稳定的中东以保证美国的安全。”

President Trump has no choice but to work with Russia in Syria because Obama and then-Secretary of State John Kerry “invited” Putin into Syria in 2013 to work on a chemical weapons deal, according to Pompeo. But there's still no real evidence that Russia wants to fight terrorism there, he said.

根据蓬佩奥的说法，特朗普别无选择只能在叙利亚与俄罗斯合作，因为奥巴马和时任国务卿约翰·克里在2013年“邀请”普京进入叙利亚一起处理一个化学武器事件。但他说目前还没有确凿的证据表明俄罗斯想在那里打击恐怖主义。

“We don't have the same set of interests” in Syria as Russia, said Pompeo. What are the Russian goals in Syria? “They love a warm-water naval port and they love to stick it to America.”

蓬佩奥说:“我们在叙利亚没有像俄罗斯那样的利益集团。”俄罗斯在叙利亚的目标是什么?“他们喜欢建一个暖水区海军港口，并喜欢让它靠近美国的港口。”

Pompeo is right, but he's not in charge of US Syria policy. That portfolio belongs to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who made completely contradictory remarks in Hamburg this month, right after he and Trump met with Putin to arrange a cease-fire in Syria's southwest.

蓬佩奥是对的，但他并不负责美国的叙利亚政策，这个事情归美国国务卿雷克斯·蒂勒森负责，雷克斯·蒂勒森本月在汉堡发表了自相矛盾的表态，时间正好在他和特朗普会晤普京以安排叙利亚西南部停火协议之后。

“Russia has the same, I think, interests that we do in having Syria become a stable place, a unified place,” Tillerson said .

蒂勒森（美国国务卿）说:“我认为，俄罗斯和美国也有同样的利益需求，就是把叙利亚变成一个稳定的地方，一个统一的地方。”

Tillerson's top Middle East official, acting assistant secretary Stuart Jones, also spoke in Aspen and said the United States has effectively outsourced security in Syria to the Russians by having them police the cease-fire.

蒂勒森的中东事务高级官员、代理助理国务卿斯图尔特·琼斯也在阿斯本发表讲话，他说，美国实际上已经将叙利亚的安全问题转交给俄罗斯，让他们监督停火协议。

“This is a real test of the Russians' ability to lead this process,” he said. “The solution is to put this on the Russians and, if that fails, it's a problem.”

他说:“这是对俄罗斯主导这一进程能力的一次真正考验。”“解决办法是把这个问题交给俄罗斯，如果失败了，那就是个问题。”

If that sounds familiar, it should. That's almost the same exact formulation Kerry used when he was negotiating Syrian cease-fires with Russia in late 2015 and early 2016. Over and over, Kerry said Russia's willingness to be a constructive partner in Syria must be tested. Over and over, Russia proudly failed that test by helping the Assad regime expand its control and continue its atrocities against civilians.

如果这听起来很熟悉，那就对了。这跟克里在2015年底和2016年初与俄罗斯谈判叙利亚停火协议的提法几乎完全一样，周而复始。克里说俄罗斯想在叙利亚成为一个建设性合作伙伴的愿意必须经过考验，克里的说法老生常谈，通过帮助阿萨德政权扩大其控制并继续其对平民的暴行，俄罗斯的这种考验骄傲地失败了。

To be sure, Obama and Kerry made many mistakes. The US effort to train and equip Syrian rebels was poorly executed and may have spurred the Russian military intervention in 2015. The Obama administration deprioritized the push to remove Assad after that and began working on cease-fires with Russia because that offered the best hope of stopping the slaughter.

可以肯定的是，奥巴马和克里犯了很多错误。美国为叙利亚反政府武装提供训练和装备的努力被被糟蹋了，并促使俄罗斯在2015年进行军事干预。奥巴马政府在这之后就放弃了推翻阿萨德的努力并与俄罗斯达成停火，因为这种努力为阻止屠杀提供了最好的希望。

Many argue that Trump has no choice but to continue that policy. As Jordan's ambassador to Washington, Dina Kawar, said in Aspen, “What is the alternative?”

很多人辩称特朗普别无选择只能继续这一政策。作为约旦驻华盛顿大使，Dina Kawar在阿斯本说，“还有什么选择?”

Perhaps there is none. But the Trump administration ought not to repeat Kerry's chief mistake, which was to negotiate with Russia without leverage. That's why Trump's reported decision to cut off the CIA program to train and equip some Syrian rebel groups fighting Assad is so shortsighted. Trump is giving up what little leverage he has for nothing in return.

也许没有选择。但特朗普政府不应该重复克里的主要错误，那就是在没有有效手段的情况下与俄罗斯进行谈判。这就是为什么特朗普的报告决定中断美国中央情报局的计划，即训练和装备一些叙利亚反政府武装组织，这是如此的短视。特朗普放弃了他所拥有的微不足道的筹码，他会一无所获。

Trump also must not repeat the Obama administration's second mistake, which was to allow Assad and Iran to expand their areas of control. Jones said that the regime and its partners are using the cease-fire in southwest Syria to free up resources to advance in southeast Syria, where the fight for the strategic region around Deir al-Zour is underway.

特朗普也不能重复奥巴马政府的第二个错误，那就是允许阿萨德和伊朗扩大他们的控制范围。琼斯说，叙利亚政权及其合作伙伴正在利用叙利亚西南部的停火协议腾出资源在东南部推进，在那里围绕代尔祖尔省战略地区的战斗正在进行中。

The Trump administration seems fine with allowing Iran and Assad to take over another large part of Syria. But the Sunni Arabs who live there will not be. “What are we going to do when these people coming back to their homes come under fire from Iranian militias?” asked Andrew Tabler, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

特朗普政府似乎在允许伊朗和阿萨德接管叙利亚的另一大部分地区这个问题上似乎很友好，但是住在那里的逊尼派阿拉伯人不会。“当这些返回家园的人受到伊朗国民军的攻击时，我们该怎么办?”华盛顿近东政策研究所的高级研究员Andrew Tabler问道。

Lastly, Trump should increase support to local Sunni Arab communities, if not with weapons than with support for local governance, education and basic services. Empowering local leaders is a prerequisite for any kind of long-term stability, and it will be crucial if and when a political process emerges.

最后，特朗普应该增加对当地逊尼派阿拉伯团体的支持，如果不支持武器，就应该支持地方治理、教育和基本服务。赋予地方领导人权力是任何形式的长期稳定的先决条件，而且当一个政治进程出现时，这将是至关重要的。

The Trump administration is not responsible for past American mistakes in Syria, but it is responsible for what the United States does now. Rather than simply blaming Obama and Kerry for the mess, this administration should learn the lessons of that failure.

特朗普政府对美国过去在叙利亚犯下的错误是没有责任的，但它对美国现在的行为负有责任。特朗普政府应该从失败中吸取教训，而不是简单地指责奥巴马和克里的烂摊子。



（本文由  龙腾网  ·  涛声依旧啊  翻译）


Frank Tringale
7/26/2017 5:58 AM GMT+0800
Tired of doing the Saudis and Israelis dirty work with taxpayer money. Give us our money back and leave Syria who was never a threat. The author of this story belongs on the Syrian front lines. He will not be missed.

厌倦了用纳税人的血汗钱去帮沙特和以色列去做肮脏的工作。把我们的钱还给我们，离开永远不会成为威胁的叙利亚。这个故事的作者应该放到叙利亚前线，他不会被放过。

JDebrune
7/25/2017 11:57 AM GMT+0800
The real solution to stopping the bloodshed in Syria lies in getting the Iranian regime out of Syria. The Syrian civil war has been raging since 2011 and it is easy to forget its beginnings and how it grew into the global conflagration it has become, but what has been indisputable has been the influence of the Iranian regime from the very beginning. The involvement of so much Iranian military capacity led to declarations from Syrian military officials that Syria might as well become a province of Iran.

阻止叙利亚流血冲突的真正解决方案是让伊朗政权离开叙利亚。叙利亚内战自2011年以来一直在肆虐，它的起源以及它是如何演变为一场全球性的灾难很容易被忘记，但无可争辩的是一开始伊朗政权的影响力。如此多的伊朗军事力量的参与导致了叙利亚军方官员声明叙利亚也可能成为伊朗的一个省。

dbs4
7/25/2017 8:49 AM GMT+0800
WaPo loves this photo and I think it's funny too. 
Looks like Trump is speaking into a mic in the flowerpot while Putin gives a thumbs up on the sound check.

华盛顿邮报喜欢这张照片，我也觉得它很有趣。
看起来特朗普在对着花盆里的麦克风说话，而普京则竖起了大拇指。

Zizau
7/25/2017 5:00 AM GMT+0800
It is an ongoing strategy of Israel to create mayhem with the Palestinians whenever there is even a partial strategic balance in the Levant. This manipulation is reinforced by media that is favorable to Israel no matter what. Israel is the only state within the region that wants to enlarge its borders, which can only be achieved through the "co-operation" of Washington.

只要在地中海地区有局部战略平衡，以色列就会不断地与巴勒斯坦人制造混乱以实行前进战略。这种通过媒体的操纵无论如何对以色列来讲都是有利的。以色列是该地区唯一希望扩大其边境的国家，而这只能是这是通过华盛顿的“合作”实现的。

kdburg
7/25/2017 4:05 AM GMT+0800
Elsewhere on WaPo’s opinion pages, Michael Vickers offers a contrasting perspective. Instead of agreeing with Rogin that there’s not a dime’s worth of difference between Trump and Obama on Syria, Vickers argues that Obama was on the right track and that Trump has betrayed America’s geopolitical interests in the region by focusing on working with Russia to eradicate ISIS and halt the awful Syrian bloodletting, even if that does not produce immediate regime change.   
As self-appointed referee, I’d say that Vickers has the better grasp of the stakes and choices (vs. Rogin’s incoherence) but is wrong about which choice best aligns with America’s values, capabilities, and interests. 
Vickers is all for arming anti-Assad groups, resisting Russia, and holding out for total victory where Assad is driven out and replaced by a pro-US bunch who will make Syria a beacon of American-style democracy. Sure, like that will ever happen. Then there is the other option of focusing on eliminating ISIS and halting the Syrian slaughter, even if that means working with Russia and tolerating Assad. If that’s Trump’s intent, I’m with him. 
This once, and probably for all the wrong reasons, Trump may actually have hit upon a good idea.  

在华盛顿邮报的其它观点页面上，Michael Vickers给出了一个截然相反的观点而不是与Rogin（本文作者）达成共识，那就是特朗普和奥巴马在叙利亚问题的做法一毛钱的关系都没有，Vickers认为奥巴马在正确的道路上，而特朗普背叛了美国在该地区的地缘政治利益，他专注于与俄罗斯合作去铲除ISIS并阻止可怕的叙利亚流血冲突，即使这不会立即导致政权更迭。
做为一个自封的裁判，我认为，Vickers对风险和机遇(VS Rogin的语无伦次)有更好的把握，但他错在哪种选择更符合美国的价值观、能力和利益。
Vickers的观点不过是武装反对阿萨德的组织、抵抗俄罗斯，并坚持追求在阿萨德政权被驱逐后取而代之的是亲美的一群人并使叙利亚成为美国式民主灯塔的全面胜利。当然，像这样的事情会发生。还有另一种选择是专注于清除ISIS并停止叙利亚屠杀，尽管这意味着与俄罗斯合作并容忍阿萨德。如果这是特朗普的意图，我就支持他。
这一次，也许是出于所有错误的原因，特朗普可能真的想出了一个好主意。

Willy Van Damme
7/25/2017 3:20 AM GMT+0800
Anyone supporting the rebellion in Syria is making first a war crime as they are interfering by arms in a internal conflict in another independent country.  
Secondly by supporting this rebellion with among others weapons as the CIA and Obama did they support Al Qaeda which in my opinion is committing high reason. 
And Pompeo therefore should stand trial and stop accusing the Russians of what he did and does.

首先，任何支持叙利亚叛乱的人都是在制造战争罪，因为他们通过武力介入了另一个独立国家的内部冲突中。
其次，就像在CIA和奥巴马的支持下他们支持基地组织一样，（在叙利亚）为反对派提供武器，在我看来，这是一个很主要的原因。
因此，Pompeo(CIA局长)应该接受审判，并停止指责俄罗斯人所做的事情。

spritrig
7/25/2017 2:07 AM GMT+0800
Please explain what the USA can win in Syria. A war with Russia?

请解释一下美国在叙利亚的能赢得什么？一场与俄罗斯的战争吗?

        OpHighjump
        7/25/2017 3:37 AM GMT+0800
        It's always about a war with Iran. The neocons thought that after taking down Saddam, they could launch attacks on Iran from bases in Iraq. They never give up. Syria needed to be neutralized before Iran could be attacked. Hillary was antsy to overthrow Assad so the US would have leverage with Iran in the nuclear deal framework negotiations. Trump has been ragging on Iran for Israel and the Saudis, but wasn't able to squirm out of recertifying the J.C.P.O.A. Even if new sanctions are put on Iran, they won't prevent the Boeing deal to sell Iran $3 billion in planes. Trump called out Qatar for being a long time supporter of terrorism and then sold them $12 billion worth of F-15s. Business is business.

        它总是与伊朗进行斗争。新保守主义者认为在推翻萨达姆之后，他们可以从伊拉克的基地发动对伊朗的攻击。他们从不放弃（这个想法）。叙利亚在伊朗被攻击之前需要保持中和，希拉里很想推翻阿萨德，所以美国在与伊朗的核协议框架谈判中有影响力。特朗普一直在为以色列和沙特阿拉伯对付伊朗这个问题上纠缠不清，但即使对伊朗实施新的制裁，他也无法摆脱XXXX（翻译不了），他们不会阻止波音公司向伊朗出售价值30亿美元的飞机。特朗普声称卡塔尔长期支持恐怖主义，然后卖给他们120美元的F15战机。生意就是生意。

spritrig
7/25/2017 2:04 AM GMT+0800
Thanks for the propaganda. Syria is not and has not been an enemy of the USA. Syria is not even an enemy of the US Constitution. 
The mistake is serving the interests of enemies of the US Constitution, Saudi Arabia and Wahhabi religious law.

谢谢你的宣传。叙利亚不是也从来不是美国的敌人，叙利亚甚至不是美国宪法的敌人。
这个误会是为由于那些为美国宪法、沙特阿拉伯和瓦哈比宗教法的敌人的利益服务的人（造成的）。

SoCalledVirginian
7/25/2017 1:27 AM GMT+0800
Another daily dose of neocon drivel in WaPo. So sick of it.

华盛顿邮报里的新保守主义的每日昏话。真讨厌。

Daniel J. Stoner
7/25/2017 12:00 AM GMT+0800 [Edited]
As much as I despise tRump and most of his policies, this article is an absurd, 100% wrong, epic failure, and it's all summed up in this one sentence by this naive warmongering-interest-biased author: "Over and over, Russia proudly failed that test by helping the Assad regime expand its control and continue its atrocities against civilians." This statement *assumes* two utter falsehoods; namely that (1) Assad committed any atrocities against civilians - there is no evidence that Assad committed the gas attacks; indeed, most of the evidence points the other way, which is why the UN had to rescind its statement that Assad carried out one of the gas attacks. the evidence indicates that more likely than not, it was USA-allied jihadist freedom fighter groups who did these to frame up Assad; and (2) Relatedly, it assumes that Assad is the enemy, when he is not - he is an ally there, and Russia and Iran should be our allies, not our enemies. We are on the exact, 180 degree opposite side of what we we should be on in Iraq/Syria war #2. The enemy (other than ISIS, who we all agree should be defeated and eradicated), in the big picture is radical Islam, meaning in essence Sunni Islam. Assad, Russia, and Shiite-majority Iran are in favor of secularism and against radical Sunni Islam, which is the cause of the overwhelming majority of violence, death, mayhem, and suffering worldwide. The groups that USA is supporting, on the other hand, are the Sunni Jihadi groups who share a basic agreement with ISIS on a worldwide theocracy / caliphate, imposition of sharia law on all earth citizens, etc. - it's just that *they* want to be in charge rather than ISIS - make no mistake: The USA is supporting the radical Sunni / Wahhabist jihadis in Syria, just as we support same being allied with Saudi Arabia, the most terrorist-supporting country in the world.

我鄙视特朗普和他的大部分政策,这篇文章胡说八道，100%错误，叙事漏洞百出。这一切都被这位天真的、好战的、势利的、偏见的作者总结成一句话:“周而复始，通过帮助阿萨德政权扩大其控制并继续其对平民的暴行，俄罗斯的这种考验骄傲地失败了”这句话*假设*两个彻头彻尾的谎言，即(1)阿萨德承参与了任何针对平民的暴行——没有证据表明阿萨德承诺使用毒气攻击，实际上，大多数的证据表明这就是为什么联合国不得不撤销其声明，该声明之前说阿萨德进行毒气攻击。证据表明，更有可能的是,这是美国支持的圣战自由斗士组织用来诬陷阿萨德；(2)同理，它假定阿萨德是敌人，但他不是，他是一个盟友，俄罗斯和伊朗也应该是我们的盟友，而不是我们的敌人。确切的说，我们在伊拉克/叙利亚战争的问题上的做法与我们应该做的完全相反。我们的敌人(除了ISIS，我们都认为应该被击败和铲除)，整体上是激进的伊斯兰教，本质上是逊尼派伊斯兰。阿萨德、俄罗斯和什叶派占多数的伊朗支持世俗主义，反对激进的逊尼派伊斯兰教，逊尼派是世界上绝大多数的暴力、死亡、混乱和苦难的根源。另一方面，美国支持的组织是逊尼派圣战组织，他们与ISIS结盟，基于全球神权政治/哈里发，对全球公民实施伊斯兰教法等等——他们做的比ISIS还彻底——毫无疑问，美国正在支持叙利亚的激进逊尼派/瓦哈比教派的圣战分子，正如我们同样支持与沙特阿拉伯联盟这个世界上最大的支持恐怖主义的国家。

OlympusView
7/24/2017 11:56 PM GMT+0800
Does Rogin really believe that the Sunnis are friends or allies of the US? If so, he is one of the more delude foreign policy analysts writing today. 
The US made Iran into an enemy, starting with the misguided CIA action to topple the Mossadegh government and support the Shah. Due to US investment in Saudi oil, the medi Saudi monarchy is supported by the US, although the hateful religious propaganda they export is a key ingredient in the barbarous Sunni groups (al-Qaida, ISIS, Taliban) that are a real threat to what remains of the civilized world.   
The agreement with Iran to curb nuclear weapon development was a useful first step in normalizing relations with Iran which, despite its anger concerning what the US had done, is the ONLY Middle Eastern Moslem country that has any hope of becoming a democratic republic. Oh, yes, America's Sunni "allies" don't accept Shi'a Islam as authentic; if they had their way, the non-Sunni world would be subject to a global St. Bartholomew's Day Massacre. And don't think non-Moslems are exempt.   
Syria is the proxy war for dominance in the Middle East. Assad is a monster, but so are his opponents. The Russians are clear as to what they want - retention of their base and port on the Syrian coast. They couldn't care less about who rules Syria as long as they get what they want. What does the US want? As usual, there is a lot of US moralizing, as though the forces of good and evil were clearly drawn. Obama was clearly beyond his capabilities and unfortunately Kerry, despite his experience in the Foreign Relations Committee, used his position as Sec. of State to pursue a personal agenda - another Nobel Prize for the "peace" between Israel and Palestine - and just went along with the Russians. Did they really fail to see the Russian tilt toward Iran, or did they not understand what Putin clearly had - and has - in mind? 
Without doubt, it is also clear that Trump and Tillerson also are beyond their depth in foreign policy.

Rogin真的相信逊尼派是美国的朋友或盟友吗?如果是这样的话，他是当今外交政策分析人士中较为保守的一位。
美国把伊朗变成了一个敌人，从中情局的错误行动开始，当年他们推翻了摩萨德政府，并支持伊朗国王。由于美国对沙特石油的投资，这个中世纪的沙特君主制得到了美国的支持，尽管他们输出的充满仇恨的宗教宣传是野蛮的逊尼派组织(基地组织、ISIS、塔利班)的一个关键因素，这些组织对文明世界构成了真正的威胁。
与伊朗达成的遏制核武器发展的协议，是关系与伊朗关系正常化的第一步。尽管伊朗对美国的所作所为感到愤怒，但它是唯一一个希望成为民主共和国的中东穆斯林国家。哦，是的，美国的逊尼派“盟友”不接受什叶派是真正的穆斯林，如果他们有自己的方式，那么非逊尼派的世界将会受到全球性的开斋日大屠杀的袭击，不要认为非穆斯林的人能幸免。
叙利亚是中东地区主导地位的代理人战争。阿萨德是一个怪物，但他的对手也一样。俄罗斯人很清楚他们想要什么——保留他们在叙利亚海岸的基地和港口。只要他们能得到他们想要的，他们就不会在意谁统治叙利亚。美国想要什么？像往常一样，这里有很多美国价值观，好像善恶的力量都被清楚地描绘出来了。显然超出了奥巴马的能力，还有不幸的克里，尽管他在外交关系委员会的丰富经验，但克里还是利用了他作为国务卿的位置寻求个人前程——另一项诺贝尔奖是关于以色列和巴勒斯坦之间的“和平”——并与俄罗斯人结伴同行，他们真的没能看到俄罗斯向伊朗倾斜，还是他们不明白普京以前和当时的想法？
毫无疑问，很明显特朗普和蒂勒森也在外交政策上超越了他们的深度。

Daniel J. Stoner
7/25/2017 12:03 AM GMT+0800 [Edited]
Mostly right, but somewhat misses the big picture: The enemy is ISLAM - sunni / wahhabist Islam, that is. This is not complicated: If you are secular, or at least Sunni, you are friend. If you are radical Islam, you are foe. That's how it should be anyway. Therefore, Iran, Russia, and Assad should all be friend, and ISIS and all groups who are Sunni muslim inspired are foe. We are therefore on the complete wrong 100% opposite side of where we should be (other than fighting ISIS) - we should not be supporting the jihadi freedom fighter groups (FSA, etc), as we are. We should be supporting Iran, Russia, and Assad.

大部分是对的，但有点忽略了大局：敌人是伊斯兰教——逊尼派/瓦哈比派伊斯兰教。这并不复杂：如果你是世俗的，或者至少是逊尼派，你是朋友。如果你是激进的伊斯兰教徒，你就是敌人。无论如何，这就是它应该的方式。因此，伊朗、俄罗斯和阿萨德都应该成为朋友，而ISIS和所有逊尼派穆斯林的组织都是敌人。因此，我们100%错误，完全背离了我们应该做的(除了与ISIS作战之外)，我们不应该支持圣战自由斗士组织(FSA等等)，正如我们所做的那样。我们应该支持伊朗、俄罗斯和阿萨德。

Willy Van Damme
7/25/2017 3:23 AM GMT+0800
This is not a question of Sunni but of Salafism/Wahabbism. As not all Christians are zealots so not all Sunni are extremists. The enemy is Saudi Arabia, Qatar & Company.

这不是逊尼派的问题，而是萨拉菲斯派/瓦哈比派的问题。并非所有的基督徒都是狂热分子，所以并非所有的逊尼派都是极端分子。敌人是沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔以及他们的同伙。

BluesDx
7/24/2017 11:08 PM GMT+0800
Gee, I thought Trump copied no one, 'cause he knew more than the generals.

天啊，我认为特朗普没有抄袭，因为他知道的比将军们多。

normalman
7/24/2017 9:50 PM GMT+0800
The fight for Syria was lost years ago. We don't want nor should we want to lose a bunch of American lives to change that. Russia and Iran have no problem throwing away the lives of their soldiers, so they've won.  
The only thing left to do is to ensure that Syria doesn't become a terrorist safe haven or a threat to Israel - that's about the best we can do there.

多年前叙利亚的战斗已经失败。我们不想也不愿失去一群美国人的生命来改变这种状况。俄罗斯和伊朗不在乎他们士兵战死，所以他们赢了。
唯一要做的就是确保叙利亚不会成为恐怖分子的避风港或者对以色列的威胁——这是我们能做的最好的事情。

Forevermantis
7/25/2017 12:35 AM GMT+0800
Russia and China were using veto over any resolution about Syria since 2012 - 2015.....Obama couldn't do anything.

自2012年至2015年，俄罗斯和中国对叙利亚的任何决议都使用否决权……奥巴马啥也干不了。

Another friend of Bills
7/24/2017 9:34 PM GMT+0800 [Edited]
"Trump is giving up what little leverage he has for nothing in return."   
Oh really? "Giving" up leverage in Syria?? "Giving" away Syria??? I didn't know Syria was our 51st state, did anyone else here?????  
"Empowering local leaders is a prerequisite for any kind of long-term stability, and it will be crucial if and when a political process emerges."  
We tried that more than a few times in the past, didn't we??? Most notably the Mujahideen in Afghanistan. It didn't work out so hot there, did it????

“特朗普放弃了他所拥有的微不足道的筹码，他会一无所获。”
哦，真的吗？增加叙利亚筹码？撤离叙利亚? ? ?我都不知道叙利亚是我们的第51个州，这里还有其他人吗？？
“赋予地方领导人权力是长期稳定的先决条件，而且当政治进程出现转机时这将是至关重要的。”
我们以前这样做过几次，不是吗???最着名的是阿富汗的圣战者，他们没有表现出那么狂热，是吗???

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OpHighjump
7/24/2017 9:14 PM GMT+0800
Assad invited Russia in, the US wasn't. At the Aspen Security Forum, General Raymond Thomas said that an extended US stay in Syria runs contrary to international law. “We are operating in the sovereign country of Syria. The Russians, their stalwarts, their back-stoppers, have already uninvited the Turks from Syria. We’re a bad day away from the Russians saying, ‘Why are you still in Syria, US?’" Isis is being finished off and the US has no leverage. SDF leaders are negotiating with Russia and Damascus to prevent from being attacked by Turkey. They know the US will leave them hanging. Erdogan always goes to the side where he gets the best deal. Pompeo probably blew his stack when he learned that the Turkish state news agency, Anadolu Agency, published a map of ten secret bases in the Syrian provinces of Al-Hasakah, Manbij and Raqqa, Harab-Isk and Rmeilan, and the number of troops deployed.

阿萨德邀请俄罗斯进入（叙利亚），而没有邀请美国。在阿斯本安全论坛上，Raymond Thomas将军表示美国长期待在叙利亚与国际法相悖。“我们都在叙利亚这个主权国家里运作。俄罗斯人，他们的中坚分子、他们的后台，还有不请自来的土耳其都在叙利亚。我们的日子不好过因为俄罗斯一直在说:“你为什么还在叙利亚，美国?”“Isis正在被终结，而美国没有影响力。”叙利亚国防军领导人正在大马士革与俄罗斯和谈判以防止遭到土耳其的攻击。他们知道美国将会让他们议而不决。埃尔多安总是站在那最有利的一边。Pompeo(CIA局长)可能会大发雷霆如果他得知土耳其国家新闻机构阿纳多卢通讯社发布了一份关于叙利亚的10个秘密基地的地图——哈塞克、曼比季、拉卡、Harab-Isk、Rmeilan等地以及部署的军队数量。

CharlesRoy
7/24/2017 9:08 PM GMT+0800
Some basics. 
Russia has been principal financial, political and military supporter of Syria and the Assads for close to half a century. Was part of the Cold War. 
Iran has been providing financial and military support for Shi'a sectarian elements in the region since the Islamic republic replaced the Shah in 1979. 35+ years now. 
US efforts in the Middle East to replace authoritarian regimes with democracies have failed badly, from Iraq and Egypt to Libya and Syria. All have failed to produce democracies.  
The failure we experienced in Syria was in 2011, when all these events started. Syria and the rest of the region simply is not ready/willing/able to make these changes. But that is what we hoped for, and tried to form policies to achieve (how have we done in Libya???). Context is essential to making the right judgments and decisions. That is where we fall badly short. 
Maybe it is irrelevant, but I was taken hostage and shot in Damascus back in 1976. The factors today are eerily similar to what I saw then. 
Winners take all. Losers die.  

科普一下。
在近半个世纪的时间里，俄罗斯一直是叙利亚和阿萨德家族的主要金融、政治和军事支持者，这也是冷战的一部分。
自1979年伊斯兰共和国取代伊朗国王以来，伊朗一直在为该地区的什叶派宗教分子提供资金和军事支持，到现在已经至少有35年了。
美国在中东地区为了取代专制政权的努力都失败了，从伊拉克、埃及到利比亚和叙利亚，所有这些都未能产生民主。
我们在叙利亚经历的失败是在2011年，当时所有这些事件都开始了。叙利亚和该地区的其他国家根本就不可能做出这些改变。但这正是我们所希望的，并试图制定政策来实现(我们在利比亚的行动是怎样的??)环境对于做出正确的判断和决定至关重要。这就是我们的失败之处。
也许这无关紧要，但1976年我在大马士革被劫为人质并遭到枪击，今天的情形和我当时看到的非常相似。
赢家通吃，输家出局。

Along For The Ride
7/24/2017 10:33 PM GMT+0800 [Edited]
Yet, citizens in those countries made the decisions, the US did not. Please stop saying "we did this" and "we did that" and giving US undeserved credit for something we did not do (e.g. "US efforts...to replace authoritarian regimes with democracies..." in reference to Egypt, Libya, Syria). We do not rule the world. While we do have some influence, right or wrong, it is only pressure until the day we invade (Viet Nam, Iraq, Afghanistan). Once we invade, then you can say "we did this" and "we did that". Obama chose to not "invade" but to support the existing gov't of Iraq to rid the region of ISIS, an al-Queda outgrowth from Bush the Lesser's Horrible Mistake. That was a righteous thing to do. His support of Syrian rebels, on the other hand, is a "we did this" situation that is not in US best interest. Syria never tried to take down the US, as far as I know. They will be interested in that now, though.

然而，这些国家的公民做出了这些决定，而美国却没有。请不要再说“我们做了这”和“我们做了那”，美国无功不受禄(例如:“美国的努力……用民主来取代独裁政权。“指的是埃及、利比亚、叙利亚)。我们不统治世界。虽然我们确实有一些影响力，不管是对是错，但它只是压力直到我们入侵(越南、伊拉克、阿富汗)。一旦我们入侵，你就可以说“我们做了这”和“我们做了那”。奥巴马选择不“入侵”，而是支持现有的伊拉克政府对付伊拉克的ISIS，它(ISIS)是由于小布什可怕错误造成的从基地组织分支发展起来。这(奥巴马的做法)是一件正义的事情。另一方面，他对叙利亚反对派的支持是一种“我们做了这”的情况，而这种情况并不符合美国的最佳利益。据我所知，叙利亚从未试图推开美国。不过，他们现在会对这一点感兴趣。

JillinNH
7/24/2017 9:03 PM GMT+0800
. . . abdicating any control or influence in Syria? 'Not in America's interests?' Hardly! There are billion$ in Russian loans and inflated real estate investments, bailing out Trump-Kushner investments-gone-amok, breathtaking money laundering . . .

...放弃对叙利亚的任何控制或影响?“不符合美国的利益?”不！这里面有数十亿美元的俄罗斯贷款、价格飞涨的的房地产投资、为特朗普-库什纳投资提供资金、令人瞠目的洗钱。

js22
7/24/2017 8:59 PM GMT+0800
"The U.S. effort to train and equip Syrian rebels was poorly executed and may have spurred the Russian military intervention in 2015." Poorly executed? Well, maybe, but I remember that we couldn't tell who was good, bad, or ugly when deciding who to arm in Syria. This situation still has not changed.

“美国为叙利亚反对派提供训练和装备的努力被执行得很糟糕，并促使俄罗斯在2015年进行军事干预。”执行的很糟糕？也许吧，但我记得在决定叙利亚的武装对象时，我们不知道他是好、是坏或是丑。这种情况仍然没有改变。

Wordpower
7/24/2017 8:51 PM GMT+0800
We are looking at Bannon's policies and goals not Trump's. Trump is a status, limelight seeking egoist with little to zero knowledge of how the real world works. Bannon is rushing to implement the remainder of the PNAC playbook which Cheney/ Wolfowitz and Perle began to lay the foundation for during their tenure. Bannon is media savvy, politically astute and focused on a world where plutocrats, oligarchs and autocrats have full control of the American system. The tragic situation in Syria plays right into that. Oh yes, he gave Trump's 95% (ers) a bone with the bogus story about Assad planning a second gas attack. Using stock footage and planting the seed of urgency, he managed to make Trump feel good and look tough. In fact, there was no threat which is why no other NSA among our allies corroborated the details. The hunger for absolute power corrupts and the general population always pays the price. In this case Syria's civilians but with someone like Trump at the helm the majority of Americans may begin to feel pain soon enough.

我们正在关注班农（特朗普幕后军师）的政策和目标，而不是特朗普的。特朗普是个爱出风头的自我主义者，他对现实世界的运作几乎一无所知。班农正急于落实“美国新世纪计划”的剩余剧本，这是Cheney/ Wolfowitz还有Perle在他们任期内奠定的基础。班农是媒体行家，政治上精明，专注于一个富豪、寡头和独裁者们如何完全控制美国的世界。叙利亚的悲剧局势正好发生在这一点上。哦，是的，他给了特朗普95%的一个关于阿萨德策划第二次毒气袭击的虚假故事。他利用老套伎俩和传播紧迫感，成功地让特朗普感觉良好，看起来很强硬。事实上，没有任何威胁，这就是为什么我们的盟友中没有其他国家的国家安全局去证实这些细节。对绝对权力的渴望导致腐败，而普通民众总是为此付出代价。在这种情况下，但像特朗普这样的人掌权来管理大多数美国人，叙利亚的平民可能很快就会感到痛苦。

Winston Smith Jr
7/24/2017 8:18 PM GMT+0800
"Trump is giving up what little leverage he has for nothing in return."   
I have yet to hear anyone propose what "return" they are looking for?  
The Jordanian ambassador is right - "What is the alternative?" The Russians seek to preserve and stabilize the Syrian state - which is still a nominally secular regime.  
I seriously doubt any "rebel" faction would be either secular or stable.

“特朗普放弃了他所拥有的微不足道的影响力。”
我还没听到有人提议他们要找什么“回报”?
约旦大使是对的——“有什么替代方案吗?”俄罗斯试图保护和稳定叙利亚政权，它名义上的仍然是世俗政权。
我非常怀疑任何一个“反叛”的派别要么是世俗的，要么是稳定的。

dd780
7/24/2017 7:57 PM GMT+0800
Just wondering where the "art" is in this deal? Of course this is part and parcel to Trump's solution for everything that appears insoluble. Let the Russians solve Syria. Let China solve North Korea. Let Jarrod solve Middle East Peace... Let GOP controlled congress solve Health Care. In fact, he said quite unambiguously: 'We'll Just Let ObamaCare Fail, I'm Not Gonna Own It.' Trump actually refuses to take responsibility for just about everything. And whet he does take credit for, even if a failure, he claims success. Example, the jobs he allegedly saved at Carrier, Ford, etc. We've subsequently watched as those companies held to their plans and either laid-off off workers or off-shoring jobs anyway. Coal Jobs? What coal jobs. He claimed 50 thousand new coal jobs. That's more than 100% growth. We've come to find out that there have been 700 more such jobs added and those are a result of Obama giving additional mining licenses; nothing at all to do with Trump. He is just a liar and con man no matter how you parse it.

只是想知道这笔交易的“艺术”在哪里？当然，这是特朗普解决所有看似不可能解决的问题的解决方案的一部分。让俄罗斯人来解决叙利亚问题，让中国解决朝鲜问题，让Jarrod解决中东和平问题，让共和党控制国会解决医疗保健问题。事实上，他很明确地说:“我们会让奥巴马医改失败，我不会承认它。”特朗普实际上拒绝承担任何事情的责任。他确实为自己的成功而负责，即使失败了，他也会宣布成功。例如，据说他在航空公司、福特等公司争取来的工作岗位，我们后来都看到了这些公司坚持自己的计划，要么辞退工人，要么业务外包。煤炭工作吗？什么煤工作，他声称有5万个新的煤炭工作岗位，这超过了100%的增长。后来我们发现，已经增加了700多份这样的工作都是奥巴马给予额外的采矿许可证的结果，与特朗普没有任何关系。无论你如何理解，他都是一个说谎者和骗子。

Domiba
7/24/2017 8:16 PM GMT+0800
He's kissing Putin's derriere.

他在亲吻普京的屁股。

kenj2
7/24/2017 7:51 PM GMT+0800 [Edited]
"Trump’s reported decision to cut off the CIA program to train and equip some Syrian rebel groups fighting Assad is so shortsighted. Trump is giving up what little leverage he has for nothing in return."  
Quite an unexpected move by the self-proclaimed Master Negotiator! (Unless he's getting some personal payback from the Russians)

“报道称特朗普决定中断美国中央情报局的计划，即训练和装备一些叙利亚反政府武装组织，这是如此的短视。特朗普放弃了他所拥有的微不足道的筹码，他会一无所获。”
自称谈判大师真是一个不可思议的行为！(除非他从俄罗斯人那里获取个人回报)

Dav109
7/24/2017 7:43 PM GMT+0800
Indeed, America gets nothing in return.... How Trump benefits is another story.

事实上，美国没有得到任何回报。特朗普的好处是另一个故事。

Citizen1787
7/24/2017 9:11 PM GMT+0800 [Edited]
Portions of Eastern Syria have clearly become a training ground for ISIS/Daesh jihadists. That isn't in the interest of the USA, NATO, our ally Jordan who shares a long border with Syria or the region.  
That said, what should be done? How can it be done?

叙利亚东部的部分地区显然已成为isis/伊斯兰国圣战分子的训练基地。这并不符合美国、北约、我们的盟友约旦的利益，其中约旦和叙利亚有漫长的边界。
那就是说，应该怎么做？怎么做呢？

bhadram
7/24/2017 7:41 PM GMT+0800
Common folks have NOT been, so far, explained to as to why and for what specific reasons Iran is our enemy. Starting from the early 1950s, we have repeatedly tried to control their destiny by destructive means and yet..........

到目前为止，普通民众还没有得到解释为什么伊朗是我们的敌人，有没有特殊原因。从二十世纪五十年代初开始，我们就不断地尝试用破坏性的手段来控制他们的命运，然而……。

Domiba
7/24/2017 8:14 PM GMT+0800
True. Obama went to congress to get his plans on Syria voted on, and they turned him down.

真的，奥巴马前往国会让他在叙利亚问题上的计划获得通过，但他们(国会议员们)拒绝了他的提议。

Kdog_WNC
7/24/2017 7:38 PM GMT+0800
Everything Obama tried to do in Syria was blocked by McConnell, Ryan, and the rest of the obstructionists Republicans on Capitol Hill.

奥巴马在叙利亚所做的一切都被McConnell、 Ryan和其他在国会山的共和党人所阻挠。

Winston Smith Jr
7/24/2017 7:34 PM GMT+0800
"Many argue that Trump has no choice but to continue that policy. As Jordan’s ambassador to Washington, Dina Kawar, said in Aspen, “What is the alternative?” 
Notice that Mr. Rogin's response to this question is essentially - "Continue the chaos." 

To which someone should ask him - "To what end?"
许多人认为特朗普别无选择只能继续这一政策。作为约旦驻华盛顿大使，Dina Kawar在阿斯本说，“有什么选择？”
请注意，Rogin对这个问题的回应实质上是“继续混乱”。
关于这件事应该有人问他:“到什么结束?”

Uselessboy
7/24/2017 7:32 PM GMT+0800
He's just letting his closest ally take the lead, and trust me, the President will indeed get something in return for giving this leadership to the primary financier of the Trump empire.

他只是让他最亲密的盟友带头，相信我，总统确实会得到一些回报，因为他把这个领导权交给了特朗普帝国的主要金融家。

Aly F
7/24/2017 7:29 PM GMT+0800
No, ending the ridiculous CIA operation to shower random groups of jihadis with money and weapons - and hope they use it to wage a proxy war against Russia, Assad and their allies - was long overdue. The whole thing was beyond stupid. The war would've been over YEARS ago if we hadn't prolonged the suffering and delayed the inevitable with these ridiculous antics.  
In the end, we wasted a bunch of money, dispersed a bunch of weapons among hardcore Islamic radicals, and helped cause a massive migrant exodus while the outcome is exactly what it was always going to be-- Assad stays in power because there's literally no other feasible option. 300+ warring factions have been fighting in Syria, and none of them ever had a snowball's chance in hell of exerting control over the region when this was all said and done, much less without a massive US military presence on the ground for a few decades. So absurd.   
You would think we would've learned our lesson about trying to topple Middle Eastern dictators after Iraq, but no. Obama thought he'd try again in Libya, Egypt and Syria-- just to be sure. What do you know, it still doesn't work.

不，结束荒谬的中央情报局行动——给圣战组织们大批金钱和武器，希望他们用它来发动一场针对俄罗斯、阿萨德及其盟友的代理人战争——早就该结束了。整个事情都是愚蠢的。如果我们没有延长这一劫难，并推迟了这些荒谬可笑的行为，那么战争将会在多年前结束。
最后，我们浪费了一大笔钱，散布了一大批武器给伊斯兰激进分子，导致大规模的移民外逃，而结果却恰恰是这样的——阿萨德继续掌权，因为别无选择。在叙利亚，300多个敌对派系一直在战斗，没有一个人有机会在这个地区实施控制，更不用说在数十年的时间里，没有大规模的美国军事存在了。真荒谬。
你可能会认为，我们本应该从推翻伊拉克的中东独裁者行动中吸取教训，但没有。奥巴马认为他应该在利比亚、埃及和叙利亚再试一次——这是肯定的。你知道吗，它仍然不起作用。

DCsandiego
7/24/2017 7:20 PM GMT+0800
Great thinking, the usual inside-the-beltway, neocon nonsnse.  
How dare Syra and Iran seek to advance their interests, you know their immediate sphere of influence, or actual neighborhood. They should understand that this is for the US and Russia to sort out, you know a zillion miles away and clueless about the region's complexities. And if you doubt this strategy, you need to see how swell things worked out in Iraq and Afghanistan. And this passs for thoughtful analysis? More like herd-think personified.

伟大的思想，通常由内到外的，新保守主义的胡言乱语。
叙利亚和伊朗为什么敢寻求扩张他们的利益，你知道他们的直接影响范围，或者实际的邻居。他们应该明白，这是美国和俄罗斯要解决的问题，你知道无数英里之外，对这个地区的复杂性一无所知。如果你怀疑这一策略，你就需要看看在伊拉克和阿富汗的局势是如何发展的。这是经过深思熟虑了吗?更像赫德思想的化身。

Uselessboy
7/24/2017 7:34 PM GMT+0800
That's the rightwing mind in all flavors. Regardless of success or failure, all evidence means do it again next time.

这是彻头彻尾的右翼思想。不管成功与否，所有的证据都意味着下次再做。

SnappyCat
7/24/2017 6:13 PM GMT+0800
Here's the thing about Syria that talking heads and journalists don't want to talk about. There is nothing that can be done that you won't take grief over. I'm certainly no Trump fan. I wasn't crazy about the Obama position on Syria...but there is nothing anyone can do about Syria that won't end up with people getting killed, maimed, tortured. There is no "people of Syria" there is no single "resistance", what resistance there is is largely affiliated with terrorists, Assad is a killer, Assad is in bed with our enemies, the resistance is in bed with our enemies. The one thing that is for sure is no matter what we do, it is wrong.  
The big thing that Obama did that he shouldn't have was call out a red line.  
Stop blaming US presidents for the fiasco in Syria.

这是连主持人和新闻记者都不想谈论的叙利亚有关的问题。没有什么可以做的，你也不用为之悲伤。我当然不是特朗普的粉丝，我也不会为奥巴马在叙利亚问题上的立场疯狂。但是，没有人能对叙利亚采取任何行动可以阻止人们被杀害、致残、折磨。没有“叙利亚人民”没有简单的“抵抗”，抵抗主要与恐怖分子密切相关。阿萨德是一个杀手凶手，阿萨德和我们的敌人穿一条裤子，抵抗（组织）和我们的敌人穿一条裤子。有一点是肯定的，那就是不管我们做什么，都是错的。
奥巴马没有做的最重要的事情是他应该画一条红线。
别再用叙利亚的惨败来指责美国总统。

Citizen1787
7/24/2017 8:21 PM GMT+0800 [Edited]
"Stop blaming US presidents for the fiasco in Syria."  
I agree. Until recently the USA has had almost nothing to do with Syria and the Assads, as far as I know we never sold them any weapons unlike Russia.  
What has has been occurring in Syria is beyond just tragic. More could have been done and still can be done to help those displaced by the Civil War there, to help our ally Jordan deal with the influx of people fleeing Syria.   
This article, like some others I have read, places the blame on the USA and our lack of leadership. I often bring up the fact that Syria was/is a member of the Arab League and if the Arab League had been willing and able to put together a coalition ground force, then NATO might have been willing and able to provide air and logistical support for their operations to defeat ISIS/Daesh, and possibly Assad. I think it is arguable that taking out Assad is easy compared to stabilizing Syria and overseeing the transition to a successor government. There would seem to be plenty of evidence in history, recent and distant, to support this.

“别再用叙利亚的惨败来指责美国总统。”
我同意这个观点。直到最近，美国与叙利亚和阿萨德政权几乎没有任何关系，据我所知，与俄罗斯不同我们从未向他们出售过任何武器。
叙利亚发生的事情不仅仅是悲惨的。我们还可以做更多的事情，还可以帮助那些因内战而流离失所的人，帮助我们的盟友约旦处理逃离叙利亚的难民。
这篇文章，和我读过的其他一些文章一样，把责任归咎于美国和我们领导能力的欠缺。实际上我经常把叙利亚当做阿拉伯联盟的一员，如果阿拉伯联盟愿意并且能够建立一个联合地面部队，那么北约可能有意愿和能力能够为他们提供空中和后勤支援来打败ISIS/伊斯兰国，甚至是可能打败阿萨德。我认为，与稳定叙利亚局势和监督过渡政府到继任政府相比，阿萨德的下台是很容易的。在历史上似乎有足够的证据，近代的和古代的，来支持这一点。

monkeypuzzle
7/24/2017 5:39 PM GMT+0800
Since when is it America's place to "invite" Russia into Syria? Truth be told, it was the internationally-recognized legitimate government of Syria that invited Russia in, not the U.S. In fact, the U.S. is not there by the invitation of anyone.

从什么时候开始美国“邀请”俄罗斯进入叙利亚？事实上，是国际公认的叙利亚合法政府邀请了俄罗斯，而不是美国。事实上，美国并没有受到任何人的邀请。