中美协商墨迹未干，美国立刻对中国征收关税，为何会这样？究竟发生了什么事情？ [美国媒体]

Why did the US announce the China Tariffs days after the US-China negotiation? What changed?

中美协商墨迹未干，美国立刻对中国征收关税，为何会这样？究竟发生了什么事情？



1.    Robin Daverman, World traveler
Answered May 30
It’s just different negotiation styles. If you’ve doneenough international business negotiations, you’ll know this:
The US/UK/France come from your old-style military-backedtrade empires. The trade used to be backed by bayonet. Basically, I put a gunon your head, and demand your signature on a deal. They may not be so militantanymore but the DNA is still there. If I don’t have enough leverage on you,I’ll go capture a “hostage from your side” and put the gun on “his head”. Doyou want to do the deal now? The thinking is that if you don’t put the gun onyour “customer”’s head, you will not get the “best” deal. See East IndiaCompany The US maybe the most high-profile one right now, but actually, neitherthe UK nor France is exactly shy when the circumstance works in their favor. Iteven has a respectable name called - Hard sell. People from most Europeancultures are somewhat OK with this because I can threaten you and you canthreaten me back.

这只不过是一种谈判的风格。如果你做过国际商务谈判的话。那么你将会对此有一定的了解：美国，英国，法国，这些都是传统的以军事为支撑的贸易帝国。在历史上，这种贸易是以刺刀为支撑的。他们的操作大概是这个样子的，把刺刀放在你的头上，然后逼迫你去签字。现在这些帝国可能不像以前那么好战了，但是他们的DNA依然是存在的。如果我对你没有足够的影响力的话，我将会从你身边儿抓起一个人质，然后把枪放在他的头上。现在你要交易吗？他们想法是这样的，如果不把枪放在你的顾客的头上的话，你绝对不会获得最好的交易。回想历史上的东印度公司。现在，美国靠着这个手段在全世界获利颇厚。事实上，对于英国和法国而言，如果条件合适的话，他们也不会害羞，会毫不犹豫的去做那些事情。这种行为甚至有一个很有意思的名字——强卖！大多数来自于欧洲文化背景的人对此都很熟悉。我可以威胁你，你也可以威胁我。

Germany, Japan, South Korea, and China come fromsmall-business and small-trader culture. Family shops and street hawkers. Ifyou say, I don’t want to buy your stuff, they’ll say, how about if I make itcheaper and/or better for you? The army is simply not at the disposal of thetrader and has NEVER been. So the worst one will do is to say “no deal” andwalk away. Basically you need to keep the customer happy, or at least, try notto make enemies. That’s why you have the famous Japanese service attitude oftreating customers like gods. Offending people is bad for business. Even ifthey don’t buy your stuff today, they may buy it tomorrow, so why would youoffend them. It’s better to just walk away for now instead of issuing threats.

德国，日本，南韩以及中国，他们都是属于小商业，小交易商文化。比如家庭商店或者是街头小贩。如果你说，我不想买你东西。那么他们则会说，如果我降价了，或者是我把它做的更好，那你们会考虑这桩交易吗？即使在最糟糕的情况下，也不过就是不进行交易，大家一拍两散。在这种文化下，你必须要让客户满意，或者至少不要制造敌人。这就是为何会诞生日式服务，为何他们会把顾客当成上帝来对待。对于他们来说，冒犯别人对他们商业是非常有害的。即使这些顾客今天不买你的东西，明天也有可能会来买的，所以你为何要得罪他们呢？所以让他们直接离开，而不是威胁他们，这是比较好的策略。

Manufacture some crisis before sitting down is justroutine tactic. Not the first, not the last, and not the only one. Haven’t younoticed that President Trump also threatened steel and aluminum tariff beforestarting NAFTA negotiation with Canada and Mexico, and threatened automobiletariff before negotiation with the EU (and in particular Germany)? Same thing.This is truly nothing special. Even the Chinese themselves are saying they arenot completely surprised. Question is what the rest of the world, watching thison the sidelines, will do, and will it leads to a new reality where nobodyrespects words and treaties anymore.

在谈判之前，先制造一些危机。这只不过是例行公事而已。现在做法既不是第一次，也不会是最后一次。不知你们是否还记起，在和加拿大与墨西哥进行北美贸易谈判之前，川普总统也威胁要对这个两个国家的钢铁和铝征收关税。与德国进行谈判之前，威胁要对德国的汽车征收关税。所以与之类似，对中国的产品重新征收关税也没什么特别的。就连中国人自己都说，他们对此并不感觉到意外。问题是，世界上其他国家都在旁观。他们将会如何抉择？这只会形成一个非常坏的惯例，在这个惯例当中，没有人会尊重文字和条约。

2.    Paul Sutton, Stock Trader, electrical engineer
Answered May 30
President Donald Trump likes to think he’s a masternegotiator. His tactics are bombastic, and meant to put the other side of thenegotiations off balance, early and often. There’s an element of “carrot andstick” involved. Just when the other side thinks that they’re getting close toan agreement, he likes to pull the rug out from under them, and then low-balls,or jacks the price up, once again. This goes on and on until the other sidesimply gets weary and capitulates.

川普总统总是认为自己是一位谈判大师。他总是喜欢去耍弄他的谈判技巧，他想让对手失去耐心，失去理智。这里面多少有点儿胡萝卜加大棒的味道。在对方认为协议已经要达成的时候，他喜欢把地毯从上面直接拉下来，然后重新开始，他会把价格再提高，如此循环往复，直到对方感觉到厌倦或者是投降。

Sadly, what Donald Trump thinks works in the New Yorkreal estate markets where “the other side” really wants to buy something, doesnot work on world trade markets where there are not only lots of buyers, butalso lots of sellers, not to mention the reality that other countries have prosin their ranks as well who are used to working with these sorts of childish tactics.Especially China where the leadership has been around the block a few times,has infinite patience, and a long-term view of history, and more than a littleknowledge in and of economics and world trade - neither of which Trump has muchof. What Trump has yet to realize, and perhaps never will, is that China isjerking him around as well, and, importantly, that their goals are long-term,and not just attempts to score points before the 2018 elections, which isTrump’s main goal.

很不幸的是，在纽约房地产当中，川普耍弄这些诡计，那些客户是真的想要去买一些东西。但是在世界贸易市场上，事情可就没有那么简单了。首先，世界贸易市场上并没有那么多的买家。相反却有很多的卖家。更何况，其他的国家也有很多会采取类似的策略，这实在是一种很幼稚的战术。中国尤其值得一提。中国在世界贸易市场上若隐若现，已经好久了，他们有着无限的耐心，他们对于历史有自己的一个长期的观察视角。他们对于经济和世界贸易都有一定的了解。针对经济和国际贸易，这两者都不是川普所擅长的。川普还没有意识到，或许他永远都不会意识到，中国也在不断的调动川普。更重要的是，中国的目标是长期的。他们并非仅仅是想要在2018年大选之前得分，而这恰恰是川普的主要目标。

As I’ve noted before, China can continue to play thisgame longer than Trump, if for no other reason than that Trump will no longerbe president in perhaps 2021, and certainly not after the 2024 elections.Patience is not Trump’s strong suit, whereas it is China’s. Once Trump is gone,China will move to reconcile with the US on more friendly, and perhaps,favorable terms. The cards are in their hands, not Trump’s. Every childish movehe makes, he loses the respect of the Chinese, and when the Chinese no longerrespect you, the gloves come off. They have considerably less to lose in thesenegotiations, and in the end, the way Trump is playing this with tariffs, it’sthe American consumer who will be the ultimate losers.

正如我在之前所提到的那样。中国可以继续玩这个游戏，而且中国玩游戏的时间比川普玩游戏的时间要长的多。在2021年的时候，川普极有可能已经不再是美国的总统了。耐心绝对不是川普的强项，但是中国非常擅长。一旦川普下台，中国将有可能采取更加友好，或许是更有利的条件与美国进行和解。这些牌在中国手中，而不是在川普手中。每当川普像小孩子一样耍一次花招，中国人对他们的尊重便会少一分。当中国人不再尊重川普的时候，中国人便会脱掉他们的白手套。中国人最终失去的比川普预想的要少的多。到了最后，川普无奈，便会开始祭出关税。但是别忘了，美国的消费者将会为这些关税付出代价，美国消费者是最终的输家。

Remember, each link in the supply chain works as avalue-added and cost-plus profit manner, so when a 10% tariff is imposed on theborder, you can count on its impact on retail pricing being between 1.5 and 2.0times, that is, a 10% tariff will translate to a 15% to 20% retail priceincrease. A case in point is the “Canadian timber products” tariff of 23% thathas resulted in an increase in the price of lumber for home-building going up40% at the wholesale/retail level to builders. The impact of that tariff, whichtook effect in January, 2018, has been a slow-down in new home construction,fewer construction workers employed (the people Trump claims to represent),slower real estate sales, and a 15% decline in the stock of homebuilders sincethe first of the year. Who has benefitted? Follow the money. A handful of timberproducers in the US have benefitted from the price increase, so the tradeoffhas been a few jobs in lumber production gained, enormous windfall profits fordomestic timber and lumber companies, and a loss of jobs across the domesticconstruction industry.

记住，供应链的各个环节最终都会对产品售价造成影响。如果一个产品的关税增加10%的话，那么他对于最终产品的售价的影响可能是达到1.5倍到2倍。也就是说，10%的关税将会使得产品的最终零售价格上涨15%至20%。加拿大木材产品就是这样的一个例子。加拿大木材产品被征收23%的关税，最终导致房屋建筑木材价格上涨40%。这个关税是在2018年1月生效的，其影响就是导致新屋建设速度开始放缓。进而导致雇佣的建筑工人开始减少，而川普却一直声称他代表工人。今年年初以来，房屋建筑商的股价下跌了15%，究竟谁受益了呢？一切都要围着钱转。美国的一些木材生产商受益于木材价格的上涨。因此在木材生产当中，有一些岗位还是得到了相应的回报。国内的木材公司获得了巨额的暴利，但是美国国内的建筑公司却丧失了就业机会。

Tariffs are like an indiscriminate poison on an economy,dooming everyone they touch. The kill not only trade, but commerce in both thesupplier country and the consuming country, and little evidence supports theidea that they create jobs domestically, in fact, net, they result in fewer,not more jobs. This trade war with China is insane, and is being conducted inthe most ham-fisted manner imaginable. Trump supporters are going to hate tohear this, but when it comes to international negotiations, Hillary Clinton notonly had much more experience, was much smarter than Trump, and had a clearvision of what the overall goal was to be. Sorry, but that’s just a reality.Imagining that Trump is going to pull victory from the jaws of defeat is justwishful thinking: he’s already lost that which he sought.

关税就像是一剂毒药，它对于经济的伤害是全面性的。每一个与之有关系的人都会受到牵连。其影响并非仅仅限于贸易。无论是对于那些出口的国家，还是对那些进口的国家，关税对他们都会造成很大的影响。几乎没有证据证明这些贸易保护主义会在国内创造新的就业。事实上他们通常会导致就业机会减少，而不是产生更多的就业机会。与中国进行贸易战是非常疯狂的。而且川普正在以一种最为愚蠢的方式来与中国进行作战。川普的支持者肯定不愿意听到这个消息。但是，在国际谈判当中，希拉里克林顿有着更多的经验，她比川普要聪明得多，而且她对于目标有着更清晰的认识。抱歉，这是事实。指望川普能够在失败的边缘挽回胜利。这只是一厢情缘。川普正在离目标越来越远。

3.    M Sullivan, former Mechanical Electronic Engineer at TRW
Answered May 30
Read his boot, The Art of the Deal to see this tactic isexactly what he always does in negotiations, it is a give and take, keepopponent confused, it is classic style of negotiating in business take to theinternational stage.

你们可以好好读一读川普的书。书名叫做交易的艺术。看了之后你就会发现，川普经常做类似的事情。这是一门给予和索取的技术，这种策略就是为了让对手迷惑。这是一种典型的商业谈判策略，只不过这种策略被搬到了国际舞台上。

4.    Gigi Aldo, Banker
Answered May 30
Actually with the US, this is a common practice. As acountry that prides itself with free speech, whatever they have openlycommitted and said worths nothing. Being free means cheaper than the cheapest.

事实上，对于美国来说，这是一种非常常见的做法。美国以自己言论自由而自豪，无论他们在公开场合说了什么东西。无论他们承诺了什么，事实上都是一文不值。自由意味着比最低价还要廉价。
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