阿富汗：这个具有灾难性的泥沼 [美国媒体]

Afghanistan: the Catastrophic Quagmire

阿富汗：这个具有灾难性的泥沼

by Brian Cloughley 

作者：布莱恩·克劳雷

As we learned in Iraq and Afghanistan, [the point] isn’t just getting them beaten; it’s keeping them beaten [to] have this victory stick.

— US Defense Secretary Carter, statement onboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt in the South China Sea,  November 5.

就像我们在伊拉克和阿富汗学到的，关键不仅仅是打败他们；关键是要打得他们只敢启用无人机。
——十一月5日，美国国防部长卡特登上位于南中国海的美国军舰“罗斯福号”后发表的声明

The insurgents are losing . . . and they’re desperate.
— General John F Campbell, senior foreign commander in Afghanistan, speech in Kabul on December 28, 2014

暴动失败了……他们要铤而走险了。
——驻阿富汗的高级外国司令官约翰·F·坎贝尔将军，2014年十二月28日在喀布尔发表的演讲

The security situation in Afghanistan is extremely unstable, and the threat to all U.S. citizens in Afghanistan remains critical. . .  Militant attacks throughout the country continue, with many of these attacks specifically targeting U.S. and other foreign citizens and entities . . . Extremists associated with various Taliban networks and members of other armed opposition groups are active in every province of the country.
— Current US State Department travel advisory for Afghanistan

阿富汗的安全局势相当不稳定，而且针对在阿的所有美国公民的威胁依然严峻……来自激进分子的攻击遍布阿富汗，并且从未间断，而且这些攻击中的大部分都是专门针对美国和其他外国公民与实体的……与各类塔利班组织有联系的极端分子以及其它反对派武装团体的成员活跃在阿富汗的所有省份。
——美国国务院针对阿富汗的最新旅行建议

In Afghanistan on December 28 last year there was a large military ceremony in Kabul. It marked replacement of  the US-NATO led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) combat mission by a NATO “training and support” organization called Resolute Support.  It was the most significant military-political event in the country since President George W Bush ordered his military forces to attack Afghanistan on October 7, 2001.

去年十二月28日在阿富汗喀布尔曾有一场大型的军事庆典。那次庆典标志着美国和北约领导的“国际安全援助军”（ISAF）执行的战斗任务被一个只负责“培训和支持”的北约组织取代。该组织被称作“坚定支持”。自从2001年十月7日乔治·W·布什命令他的军队进攻阿富汗以来，这是发生在该国最重要的军事和政治事件。

The senior figure at the ceremony was US Army General John F Campbell, commander of all foreign forces in Afghanistan, who declared to those present that “we have lifted the Afghan people out of the darkness of despair and given them hope for the future. You’ve made Afghanistan stronger and our countries safer.”

在那场庆典中资历最高的人物是阿富汗全体外国军队的司令官、美国陆军上将约翰·F·坎贝尔。他向出席庆典的人宣布：“我们已经将阿富汗人民抬出了绝望的黑暗，我们还给了他们对未来的希望。我们在让阿富汗更强大的同时也让我们的国家更安全。”

He ignored the staggering irony of the fact that for his own safety he could not give his speech in an open forum.  There was no possibility that this US General could appear in a location accessible to the public anywhere in Afghanistan.  As recorded by Fox News “the ceremony had to be organized in secret due to the threat of a Taliban attack, the number and intensity of which have increased in recent months,” which is hardly an indication of a “stronger” Afghanistan.

不过他忽视了一个令人吃惊的事实所带来的讽刺：为了他自身的安全，他甚至不能在公开集会上发表上述言论。在阿富汗这位将军不可能出现在任何一个本地人可以接近的公共场合。正如福克斯新闻所报道的：“由于塔利班威胁要对该庆典实施攻击（而这类攻击的数量和强度在最近数个月中呈现增长），所以不得不秘密组织这场庆典”，于是这场庆典几乎不能成为一个“更强大的”阿富汗的象征。

Campbell was effusive in his praise for “those who planned and organized this ceremony — I thank you for your hard work. An event like this requires a great deal of organization, preparation, and rehearsal.”

坎贝尔对“计划和组织本次庆典的人”极尽溢美之词——“我感谢你们的辛劳工作。像这样的一场庆典需要大量的组织、准备和排演。”

Certainly it would require a lot of effort — especially when you can’t let news of the event be made public in order to avoid being blown up by insurgents. In similar fashion, the visits to Afghanistan in 2014 by President Obama (May), British Prime Minister Cameron (October) and NATO’s Secretary-General Stoltenberg (November) had to be kept secret.

它当然需要大量的努力，尤其是当你为了不被暴动者炸死，从而不能公开庆典的消息的时候。类似的方法也用在了奥巴马总统2014年五月、英国首相卡梅伦十月以及北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格十一月访问阿富汗上了。



It is strange that these people do not consider it utterly bizarre that they couldn’t openly visit a country in which their troops had been fighting — and dying — for all these years.

这些人不能公开访问一个他们十几年一直在其中战斗(并战死)的国家却不觉得很怪诞，这委实奇怪。

This sums up the entire horrible charade in Afghanistan. The country is a deeply corrupt, politically incoherent, economically insolvent, insurgent-ridden shambles that leads the world in production of heroin. As Al Jazeera notes, “Not only is Afghanistan the global leader in opium production, but Afghans are now the leading consumers of their own drugs. The number of Afghan drug addicts now stands at nearly three million, up from less than 500,000 just two years ago.” According to the  United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime’s 2014 Afghan Opium Survey, there was opium poppy cultivation over 8,000 hectares (20,000 acres) and by 2014 it had exploded to 224,000 hectares.

整个阿富汗被可怕地伪装起来由此可见一斑。这个国家极度腐败、政治混乱、经济破产、处处都是蹒跚前行的造反者，不过它也是全世界生产海洛因产品最多的国家。半岛电视台报道说：“阿富汗不仅生产全球最多的鸦片产品，而且阿富汗人在消费他们自己生产的毒品方面也是最多的。如今阿富汗吸毒者的数量大约有300万，而仅仅两年之前这个数字还小于50万。”根据联合国毒品与犯罪办公室对阿富汗2014年鸦片情况的调查报告，那里以前种植了超过8000公顷（20,000英亩）的用于制造鸦片的罂粟，到了2014年激增到224,000公顷。

It makes one wonder why the most senior foreign military commander in Afghanistan can declare that the exertions and sacrifices of his forces for thirteen years have “made Afghanistan stronger.”

这足以让一个人疑惑：为什么驻阿富汗的级别最高的外国军队司令官能够宣布他的军队十三年来对该国施加的压力和作出的牺牲已经“使阿富汗更强大”？

President Obama acknowledges that drug production in Afghanistan “is among the most difficult international drug-control problems,” but slides round the facts and figures with all the skill of a heroin addict seeking another vein.  His statement that “for 15 of the last 16 years, Afghanistan has been the world’s largest producer of opium poppy” is contemptible in its avoidance of precision, because he avoids admitting that the appalling drug production and addiction problems have rocketed during his presidency.  When he took over in 2009, opium production was 4,000 tons.  Last year it was 6,400 tons.  Of even more importance : when he took over in 2009 the UN recorded that 2,412 Afghan civilians were killed and 3,556 injured in that year;  in 2014 the numbers were 3,699 and a staggering 6,849.

奥巴马总统承认阿富汗的毒品“属于最难控制的国际毒品问题范畴”，但是他却像一个正在使出浑身解数找寻第二条静脉的吸毒者那样想尽一切办法无视事实和数据。他发表声明说“在过去的16年中有15年阿富汗都是世界上最大的鸦片制造者”，但是因为他不打算承认在他的任期内令人震惊的毒品以及吸毒成瘾问题已经激增，所以他对准确数字避而不谈。这是卑劣的。当他在2009年接管美国的时候，鸦片产品是4,000吨。去年是6,400吨。还有更重要的是：当他在2009年接管美国的时候阿富汗有2412个平民被杀3556个平民受伤，到了2014年这两个数字分别是3699和令人吃惊的6849。

So this is progress?

所以说这就是进步？

Another irony concerns the strength that can be brought to bear against Taliban insurgents by the Afghan military.  Overwhelming airpower is regarded as a vital part of warfare and it is considered that nothing can be accomplished without it. So the US is equipping the Afghan Air Force with 16 gunship helicopters and 20 Super Tucano ground attack aircraft because they are considered an essential element in combating the militants.

另一个具有讽刺意味的担忧是阿富汗军队能拿出来对付塔利班反叛者的军力。压倒一切的制空权被认为是战争生死攸关的部分。通常的考虑是没有制空权什么都无法完成。只是因为武装直升机和战斗机被认为是与激进分子作战的基本装备，所以美国用16架武装直升机和20架可进行地面攻击的巨嘴鸟战斗机装备阿富汗空军。

But in March 2015 General (‘hope for the future’) Campbell told the Senate Armed Forces Committee that “the first thing I always get asked for [by Afghan commanders] is close air support. We’re building their close air support . . . What I tell the Afghans is, ‘Don’t plan your operations wholly dependent on close air support. You have the capability. The Taliban doesn’t have close air support, the Taliban doesn’t have up-armored Humvees, the Taliban doesn’t have D-30 howitzers.’ So a part of it is just leadership, again.”

但是2015年三月，坎贝尔将军（“希望未来他还是将军”）告诉国会军事委员会说：“我常常被阿富汗指挥官们要求做的第一件事是紧密的空中支持。我们正要为他们建立紧密的空中支持……我告诉这些阿富汗人的是‘不要将你们的行动完全建立在紧密的空中支持上。你们自己有能力的。塔利班没有紧密的空中支持，塔利班没有超级坚固的悍马，塔利班没有D30的榴弹炮。’所以再说一遍，只有领导才能才是作战的关键部分。”

The US-NATO commander in Afghanistan does not consider it essential for the Afghan army to have close air support because “the Taliban doesn’t have close air support.”

这位驻扎在阿富汗的美国及北约司令官没有想到由于“塔利班没有紧密的空中支持”，因此对阿富汗军队来说拥有紧密的空中支持是至关重要的。

When US-NATO-ISAF troops were fighting against the Taliban they had massive air support. Ground forces didn’t plan a single mission of any significance without ensuring that air attacks could be called in. They had thousands of up-armored Humvees and countless batteries of artillery and squadrons of tanks and scores of rocket launchers and death-dealing drones and other amazing devices that can detect and destroy a travelling ant from fifty miles.

当美国-北约-国际安全援助军（ISAF）组成的军队与塔利班作战的时候，他们是有大量的空中支持的。如果无法保证空中攻击随叫随到，地面部队从来没有打算单独执行一次有意义的任务。他们当时拥有数千辆坚固的悍马，不计其数的大炮，还有几个中队的坦克，大量的火箭弹发射器，执行死亡任务的无人机，以及其它令人炫目的、可以从50英里外侦查并摧毁一队行进中的蚂蚁的设备。

Here’s what I wrote in CounterPunch in January 2014 :

这是我于2014年一月在“反击网”上写的内容：

Here we have the most technically dazzling military force in the world, with every conceivable martial contraption of the most amazing efficiency, and a bottomless pit of money, and it hasn’t been able to defeat “a bunch of dudes in bed sheets and flip-flops” as the Taliban are so well described by one of the few American military officers who has dared to speak truthfully about the Afghanistan disaster: Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis.

我们拥有世界上科技含量最高的光彩夺目的军队——但凡想得到的、拥有最令人惊异的能力的军事新发明，我们都有——以及像流水一样花掉的钱，但是我们却不能击败“一帮穿着床单和人字拖的家伙”（只有丹尼尔·戴维斯中校敢于这样诚实地谈及发生在阿富汗的这场灾难，除他之外几乎没有美国军官敢这样正面描述塔利班。）

The barbaric “dudes in bedsheets” have shown how powerful they are in many ways, but one particularly fascinating revelation came from the New York Times on November 3 when it reported that “If there had been grumbling before about the deafening intrusion of low-flying American helicopters in the Afghan capital, the discontent has surely multiplied along with the number of flights: packs of them now, coming two, four, six at a time, starting around 7 a.m., then again at midday and at dusk. Why so many?”

虽然裹着床单的野蛮人已经用许多种方式展现他们是多么强大，但是还是有些方式特别令人着迷却没有被揭露出来。《纽约时报》在十一月3日对此作了报道。它写道：“如果人们对在阿富汗首都低飞的美国直升飞机那震耳欲聋的干扰一直有牢骚抱怨，那么这种不满确实已经伴随飞机数量的增加而增加了：现在有一大堆飞机，一次就来了两架、四架、六架，大概早上7点就开始，然后在中午和黄昏时分再来一遍。为什么来这么多？”

The reason is simple. The Times concludes that “after 14 years of war, of training the Afghan Army and the police, it has become too dangerous to drive the mile and a half from the airport to the embassy.”

原因很简单。《纽约时报》得出的结论是“经过14年的战争、经过14年对阿富汗军队和警察的培训，已经让驱车从机场开往大使馆的这1.5英里路程变得太危险以至于无法完成。”

So much for US-NATO having made Afghanistan “stronger” after fourteen years of war.

在经过十四年的战争之后美国-北约是如何让阿富汗变得“更强大”的，我们就谈到此。

President Obama continues to be bright and optimistic, at least in public.  On October 15 he said he is going “to support President Ghani and the national unity government as they pursue critical reforms. New provincial governors have been appointed, and President Ghani is working to combat corruption, strengthen institutions, and uphold rule of law.”

奥巴马总统还是一贯的机灵和乐观（至少在公众场合是这样）。十月15日他说“因为加里总统和阿富汗国家联合政府进行的是极为关键的改革，所以他打算支持他们。新的省长们已经被任命，加里总统正在与腐败作斗争，他还要加强各个政府机构的力量并维持法治。”

It is probable that Campbell, Obama, Ghani and the intellectually arrogant US Defence Secretary Carter will fail in Afghanistan, just as did their pathetic predecessors.

就像他们又笨又可怜的前任们一样，坎贝尔、奥巴马、加里和知性上傲慢的美国国防部长卡特将在阿富汗遭遇失败的情形是有可能出现的。

And, alas, Afghanistan will most likely decline into further corruption, turmoil and torment. It might be too late to save it — unless, perhaps, these people would condescend to take advice from people who know about the country.

而且，呜呼哀哉，阿富汗将极有可能堕入更深的腐败、混乱和折磨中。挽救它可能已经太迟了，除非这些人蹲下来并听取那些了解这个国家的人的意见。

It would be a good thing if they talked to and considered taking advice from real Afghans.

如果他们曾和真正的阿富汗人谈过，如果他们曾考虑采纳真正的阿富汗人的建议，那么就太好了。

Not a hope.

没希望了。

Brian Cloughley writes about foreign policy and military affairs. He lives in Voutenay sur Cure, France. 

布莱恩·克劳雷撰写对外政策和军事方面的文章。目前他住在法国的Voutenay sur Cure。

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