美媒：失望的中国一胎政策 [美国媒体]

The brutal horror of China’s one-child policy

失望的中国一胎政策
【日期】2015年11月3日



A child was wrapped up against the cold in a park in Beijing on Friday.

在周五的北京公园 一个穿着严实以抵御寒冷的孩子

BY ALMOST any yardstick, China’s one-child policy has been a grim failure. The Communist regime last week modified its notorious population-control program, announcing that married couples would henceforth be “allowed” to have two children. But the decision comes far too late to repair the damage the one-child policy caused, or to ease the unimaginable pain left in its wake.
Rarely has a government subjected its people to so dreadful a social experiment.
Futility was the least of its flaws. Imposed under Chinese ruler Deng Xiaoping in 1980, the one-child rule was envisioned as a spur to economic growth and a solution to the supposed problem of overpopulation. Yet by its own terms, it turned out to be almost wholly counterproductive. 

通过严格的执行，中国的一胎化政策成为了残忍的失败。中国上周改变了他的人口控制程序，宣布每对夫妇从今以后被允许有两个孩子。但是这个决定来的太晚了以至于不能修正一胎化政策带来的破坏性问题和缓解其唤醒的不可想象的痛苦。
它的缺陷至少是徒劳无功。中国的领导人邓公自1980年起推行一胎化措施以来，它被看作经济腾飞的一个有利因素和应对人口问题的解决方法。然而从它自身目标来看，它的结果是几乎完全适得其反。

China’s fertility rate had peaked at 6.2 in 1965, long before Deng came to power. By 1980, when the draconian policy was first rolled out, it had already dropped to 2.7. Without any coercion, China’s 1960s-era baby boom had ended. Family size was gradually shrinking, as generally happens when living standards rise.
It took the one-child policy not to bring the national fertility level to a more manageable level, but to reduce it to a disastrous nadir. According to the 2010 Chinese census, the country’s fertility rate had sunk to 1.18, far below the 2.1 “replacement rate” necessary to keep a population from dwindling.

中国的生育率高峰是1965年达到的6.2，在邓掌权之前很久了。1980年，当严厉的生育政策首次出台时，生育率已经降到了2.7。没有强制规定，中国的1960年代婴儿潮已经结束了。家庭数量逐渐减少，伴随着生活标准的逐渐提高。
这导致了一胎化政策未能使国家生育水平达到一个合适可控的位置，而且将其降低到一个灾难性的低位。根据2010年中国的人口统计，国家生育率已经降低到1.18，远远低于足以保证人口缓慢减少的2.1的世代更替率。

But rather than put China on the track to prosperity as far as the eye can see, its plummeting birth rate means a rapidly aging population will have to be supported by a steadily diminishing workforce. 
As many demographers have said, China has been condemned to grow old before it grows rich. Today, there are five workers in China for every retiree. Within 15 years, the ratio will be a desperate 2 to 1. The one-child policy, defended by so many as the harsh-but-necessary medicine China needed to achieve economic vigor, turned out to be a poison pill.
Worse still, China’s one-child diktat condemned hundreds of millions of baby girls, born and unborn, to death.

但是，跳出把中国繁荣发展的现状来看，骤降的生育率意味着迅速的人口减少将会必然引起持续的劳动力减少。
正如许多人口统计学家谈到的，中国已经被迫未富先老。今天，五个劳动者对应一个退休者。
15年后，比例是2对1.一胎化政策，被认为是残酷的却是必须的中国实现经济高涨的药方，已经被证明是毒药。
更糟糕的是，中国的一胎化执行被认为导致数以百万计的婴幼儿死亡，无论是出生或未出生。

In a country with an entrenched cultural preference for sons — based in part on the expectation that sons will be responsible for the support of elderly parents — the government’s policy led to an explosion of female infanticide, and then, with increased access to ultrasound machines, to sex-selective abortions. 
The Chinese government estimated recently that 13 million abortions are performed in the country annually. All told, population controls have resulted in a staggering total of 336 million abortions. One well-known consequence has been a drastic imbalance between the sexes. For every 100 newborn Chinese girls, there are 118 boys. That is a prescription for chaos: With more than 30 million so-called “bare branches” — young men unable to find female partners — China is heading for an upsurge in social pathologies ranging from rape to sex trafficking to drug and alcohol abuse.
But worst of all is the sheer brutality with which the one-child policy was applied.

在一个有着根深蒂固的对男孩文化偏好的国家——政府的一胎化政策导致了爆炸性的女婴堕胎，至今，随着超声波机器鉴定性别的增加，导致的性别选择性流产。
中国政府估计每年全国接近的1300万次堕胎。这一切表明，人口控制已经导致了难以置信的总计336万的堕胎。一个广为人知的结果是极端的性别不平衡。每出生100个女孩同时出生118个男孩。这是一个混乱的政策：伴随着3000万被称作光棍的—没能力找到女性伴侣的年轻人—中国面临着高涨的由毒品和酗酒引起的非法性交易的社会病态范畴。
这一切糟糕的现状都是由残忍的一胎化政策导致的。



WistaView11/03/15 04:22 PM
Rhetorical question: Will the same Chinese government that once sanctioned measures that led to the adoption of infant girls by ex-continental families now institute a buyback program in order to provide enough women for the now-brideless males in the country? I won't take it personally if this comment is blocked but thought it worth posting.

脑洞大开的问题：同样的中国政府将会实施措施促使大陆之外的收养女孩的家庭返还孩子来为国内无配偶男性提供足够的女性吗？如果被删帖，我不会重发此评论，但我认为此问题是值得提出的。

Ozark11/03/15 04:57 PM
Spot on, Jeff. A two child policy is not much better.

准确的说，jeff。两孩政策也不够好。

MNMoore11/03/15 05:24 PM
What about the no child policy of American employers who demand an endless time commitment for low pay and no job security?

美国雇主们的无孩政策如何解释？破坏劳动时间保障和最低工资保障？

Over 50% of Americans make under $30,000 a year. Can you raise a child on that?

超过一半的美国人年收入低于30000刀。就凭这个，你能养活一个孩子吗？

Ozark11/03/15 06:11 PM
So I suppose that forcing women to have abortions, as local party officials commonly did, doesn't offend you?

所以我就应该强迫女性堕胎，就像地方一般党政官员所做的那样，不会惹你生气吗？

MNMoore11/03/15 06:43 PM
What is the difference if it is done directly or indirectly?

相同结果，直接或者间接有什么不同吗

Ozark11/03/15 08:58 PM
MNM,
The fertility rate has been coming down in the US since the 19th century because of urbanization, education and jobs for women, lower infant mortality and other factors. 

自19世纪以来由于城镇化美国的生育率已经下降，女性教育和工作，
婴儿死亡率降低和其他因素。

No doubt the fertility rate was low during the Great Depression because of bad economic conditions and during WW2 because so many young males were abroad. 

毫不怀疑生育率在大萧条和二战期间很低，这是由于经济状况衰退和许多年前年轻男性入伍。

But since the postwar baby boom ended, fertility has been low in the US not because of bad times but because lots of Americans WANT few or even no children. China has been totally different because urban couples who WANTED more than one child were penalized for having a second child.

但是自从战后婴儿潮结束，美国生育降低不是因为时代不好而是因为没果然想要少或者没有孩子。中国的状况完全不同因为想要多于一个孩子的夫妇因为有第二个孩子而遭到惩罚。

MNMoore11/03/15 09:43 PM
"Want" is another word for "afford".

“想”就是另一个“负担”

Whaaaaa11/04/15 06:31 AM
Just silly.

愚蠢。

MNMoore11/03/15 05:57 PM
According to the CIA, the US and China have identical birth rates. So US employers are doing just as well as the Chinese Communist Party.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2054rank.html

根据CIA报告，美国和中国的出生率差不多。所以美国的雇主们和中国共产党所做的的差不多。

So the arch-Conservative Jacoby openly admits that under the Communist Party of China the living standards rose so sharply that without coercion fertility rates dropped precipitously from 6.2 to 2.7 in only 15 years.

所以极端保守党们认为在中共控制下的中国生活水准提升的如此迅速，同时还没有严厉的生育限制，生育率下降如此的迅速，从6.2到2.7仅用了15年。

I can't help but be very suspicious of any numbers this guy quotes - he is peddling a pre-determined ideological "outcome".

我不能下结论，但是这家伙引用的任何数字都很可疑，为他宣传一个预先确定的思想“结果”服务。