中国的崛起是不可避免的吗？ [美国媒体]

-------------译者：freemimo-审核者：464897824------------



Is China's rise inevitable?

中国的崛起是不可避免的吗？


-------------译者：freemimo-审核者：464897824------------

Leandro Garcia Aspiring Traveler
Answered Aug 20 2016
Maybe not an answer itself but anyways:

也许这并不是你要的答案但无论如何：

People talks about military dominance of the US… in modern world military matters less every day what determinate if a country is dominant over another is trade if it has what others need if it can support economically other countries etc.

人们总是谈论美国的军事统治......在现代社会，如果一个国家要支配另一个国家，军事问题的决定意义远小于贸易。如果某个国家能提供其它国家缺少的商品，那它就能在经济上支配这个国家。

Besides if you… lets say nuke china you will unleash a global crisis will be shortages of almost every consumer product(guess where are your phones laptops and cars made) many export goods will lose it market(comodities like soy iron coal etc) can any government handle the local and international repercutions of such situation?

另外你要是说让我们核平中国的话，那将会导致全球危机——几乎所有的消费品都会短缺（想想你的手机、笔记本电脑和汽车是在哪生产的吧），并且很多出口商品将会失去市场（比如大豆、铁、煤这些商品）。有任何政府能够应对这种当地和国际的反响（repercutions应为repercussions）吗？

-------------译者：freemimo-审核者：mich------------

China has the biggest market is the biggest manufacturer exporter and is moving millions of people out of poverty every year.

中国拥有最大的市场同时是世界工厂，它还每年让数百万人脱离贫苦。

Its building relationships with other developing countries that probably will have a major role in the future(like all the investment that has done in africa)

它与其他发展中国家建立的关系可能会在未来发挥重要作用（就像在非洲所做的所有投资一样）。

China historically(or the region where modern China is) had had the biggest GDP of the world the inability of keeping up with the industrialization of the west make it become a backward and poor country but its recovering there is no way of stopping that.

中国在历史上（或者说当今中国所在的这片区域）曾经拥有最多的GDP，由于没能赶上西方的工业革命才让它变成了一个贫穷落后的国家，而现在没有什么能够阻止中国的再次崛起。

-------------译者：freemimo-审核者：mich------------

Michelle Zhou
upxed Aug 23 2016 · Upvoted by Luiz Giaconi Foreing Relations and Politics post graduate
China is not rising China is returning returning to her natural position. In the Chinese or indeed the Indian prospective the rapid growth is not a rise but a return to the natural order of things. From the antiquity to the middle of the 19th century China and India accounted for half of the world’s GDP. And China was always economically militarily and philosophically the central power of the far East. Not by force but by cultural richness.

中国并不是崛起，它只是在重新恢复以前的地位。中国现在和印度可预期的快速增长并不是崛起而是回到它们过去的样子。一直到19世纪中期，中国和印度都占据着世界上一般的的GDP。在经济、军事和哲学方面，中国都一直是远东的中心。这不是因为武力，而是由它丰富的文化决定的。


Again~ China is not a rising power no countries in that size could rise that fast and that big. It is all because they have the experiences. China is now in a transformation of quantitative into qualitative changes her return is unstoppable.

再一次~中国并非崛起，没有一个像这么大的国家可以这么快速的崛起。这完全是因为中国拥有这种经验。中国现在处于追求数量到质量的转变之中，没有什么能阻止它的归来。

-------------译者：mich-审核者：Asuka-------------

Alvin Hovasapian
Maybe in the pre-industrial age having a larger population would have been an advantage but in th...

也许在前工业时代，人口多是优势，但是现在。。。

1 more comments from Brendan Dobson

Brendan Dobson评论

Wang Yaojun
Wang Yaojun works at Vocational Education and Training】

从事职业教育培训工作

Answered Apr 1 2016
2016.4.1答复
Like it or not China will be a power that every country must face to. Chinese people are industrious and hard-working plus the vast territory. So we'd better accept it as a basic common sense that China will rise. Additionally mutual understanding and mutual respect should be taken through cooperation and interaction. In case of competition among countries I think it's OK to protect one's own country but we must take cooperative way to tackle global issues such as carbon emission global warming to name just a few.

无论你喜不喜欢，每个国家都要面对中国即将强大。中国人民的刻苦勤奋和中国地大物博，大家最好把中国崛起当成一种基本常识。此外合作与互动应当基于相互理解和相互尊重。如遇国与国之间的纷争，为各自国家站边我认为ok。但是我们必须采取合作的方式来解决全球性问题例如碳排放导致全球变暖等。

Finally I suppose that every country will rise at some time in the future their people will choose how to develop and what direction to go by what means to take as well.

最后我认为在未来每个国家都可能崛起，他们国民也能够决定如何发展，通过什么方式往哪个方向发展.

-------------译者：freemimo-审核者：mich------------

Peter Gould former Widgit Inspector
Answered Sep 4 2016
Ask 1990-Japan about inevitible rise to supremacy.

想想90年代的日本崛起为世界霸主是不是不可避免呢？

China is dancing on a knife’s edge. Also I read enough to strongly beleive that most Asians (and alot of Chinese) are also very are of this. China may pull off economic longevitying but they nay not.aw

中国是在刀尖上跳舞。我看过很多研究，我觉得大部分亚洲人（并且很多是中国人）也是这么认为的。中国的经济一直在快速增长但无论如何这并不能一直持续下去。

If they dont then they will be swollowed up by their own inbalances between the richwesternized coastal south and the poor and female lacking rural interiour.

如果增长停滞，中国将会淹没在西化的富裕南方沿海与内陆农村男女比例严重失调和贫穷的矛盾里。

-------------译者：freemimo-审核者：mich------------

Tom Xu Chinese who has overseas working experience
Answered Oct 20 2016
Is 200 years’ western domination inevitable?

200年的西方统治是不可避免的吗？

No it is an accident of the history.

不，它只是历史上的一次意外。

Just like everyone gets ill no matter how healthy he/she is the rise of west is an accidental temporary unexpected event an illness of the world.

就像每个人都会生病一样，无论他或她有多健康。西方的崛起就是一次偶然的突发事件，就像世界生病了一样。

Now the History is trying to recover itself.

现在历史将要恢复它原来的面貌。

Although the process may be a little bit painful it is inevitable since one needs to be healthy anyway.

虽然这个过程可能有点痛苦，但这不可避免，无论如何世界需要保持健康。（国人真的嚣张......）

-------------译者：freemimo-审核者：mich------------

Igor Fazlyev
Answered Nov 24 2016
It’s inevitable in the sense that it has already happened.

这是不可避免的，因为它已经发生了。

I think China will soon be plateauing both economically and in terms of population there are limits to growth but it’s going to be an important player on the worlds stage for the foreseeable future there is no doubt about that even if its economy hits a rough patch - the thing is China’s already got really big it has already risen if you will in purchasing power parity its economy is already bigger than that of the US.

我认为中国的经济和人口数量很快都将进入增长的平稳期，增长是有上限的，但在可预见的未来，它将是世界舞台上的一股重要力量了。毋庸置疑的是即使经济不景气，中国已经增长成为十分庞大的经济体。若要我举个栗子，从购买力平价看它的经济体已经超过美国。

-------------译者：mich-审核者：珂求一生------------

Anonymous
匿名
Answered Apr 1 2016
2016.4.1答复
If you look at Chinese history over the past thousands years you would appreciate that it would be a good thing for China to be one of the superpower in the world.
China has never invaded other countries through out its thousands years history except some small borders wars here and there.

如果你读下中国的过去几千年历史，你会庆幸中国正成为世界超级强国之一，贯穿中国几千年的历史里，除了零零散散的边境小纷争，中国从未侵略过其他国家.

When China was strong whole world especially the East Asia enjoyed peace and prosperity. When China was weak the world especially the East Asia were in chaos and wars.

以往中国曾经强大，整个世界尤其是东亚跟着和平繁荣。而中国孱弱时，整个世界特别东亚都陷入战乱的泥潭。

It is inevitable for China to rise:
1) Chinese people and philosophy
2) People around the world are happy and supporting Chinese rise peacefully surely the US wants to keep its hegemony in the world to incites some conflicts around China but all those countries know the US' intention and thus keep neutral and keep watching US' solo action.
China has become what it is today by one generation of "under educated people". The new Chinese generation is well educated and can compete with any nation in the world stage.
Yes it is inevitable for China to rise to a world power especially economical superpower as Chinese does not believe "Gun and warship diplomacy" but develop sufficient advanced weapons to defend its economical power worldwide

为什么中国崛起势不可挡：
1）中国人和中国哲学
2）世界各国人民都乐见中国人和平崛起，确信美国为了保住其世界霸权地位特意煽动中国周边纷争，但是这些国家都明白美国的意图保持中立或者在旁边看美国唱独角戏，
中国通过“未受教育的人民”达到了现今地位。而中国新一代都受过良好教育，足以与世界舞台上的任何国家竞争。
是的，中国成为世界大国特别是经济强国是不可避免的，因为中国人不信奉武力威慑-“炮舰外交”但能够开发先进武器在全球捍卫自己的经济实力。

-------------译者：freemimo-审核者：mich------------

Thomas Musselman
Answered Oct 20 2016
Population size is not destiny. Look at the Netherlands and Singapore. China has a populations too large for its type of territory which has oversalted soil and too little water (polluted and depleted aquifers). There is no guarantee that a large population will lead to wealth nor invention. Tiny Norway contributes as much to science as China does.

人口规模并不能决定什么。看看新荷兰和新加坡就知道了。中国的人口数量相对于自己的领土来说实在是太多了，而且那里很多土地都已经盐碱化了，水资源也稀缺（水污染以及地下水枯竭）。大量的人口并不是财富和发明创造的保证。小小的挪威对科学的贡献与中国一样多。

China’s increased wealth also is in large part due to bringing women into the work force and taking people out of non-productive agricultural labor. Its low labor cost advantage is ending and jobs fleeing to Bangladesh and Vietnam.

中国财富的增长在很大程度上是由于让妇女进入工作岗位，并且让大量农业劳动力进入工业生产。如今中国劳动力的低成本优势已经不再，工作岗位正向孟加拉和越南流失。

-------------译者：mich-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

William Hennigan lived in China 
William Hennigan 在中国居住
Answered Sep 2 2016
2016年9月2日答复

No it is not inevitable.

不，不是不可避免的。

For a couple of thousands of years the Huaxia culture was the most powerful culture in Asia. For those thousands of years the Huaxia went conquering adjacent land people and/or kingdoms - they were particularly successful in conquering when managed by their overlords like the Mongol and the Manchu. And they enriched the people of Zgong Guo. But the culture stalled out approximately about 1760. Around that time they became unable to feed the people of Zhong Guo and were saddled with a government that could not protect the people and entered into a 150 year period being susceptible to lesser cultures - lesser referring only to the populations of the “lesser cultures”.

华夏曾是亚洲几千年最强大的文化。在这几千年里华夏征服了毗邻的领土，人民和国家，中国在蒙古和满族等霸主的领导下，征战尤其厉害，还因此让国民过上了富裕的生活。但华夏文明大概在1760（乾隆年代）左右突然熄火，那时候他们变得无法养活国民，当权政府无法保护人民，此后150年被“较次文化”所控制——这里的较次指的是人口少。

The Huaxia culture has historically been very powerful and very resistant to any modification. The PRC today is making profound efforts to rebuff any western culture impression on the Huaxia culture. It is this same culture that stalled out 150 years ago. Similar to the hubris and arrogance that the Qing exhibited when faced with the western cultures in the 18th and 19th centuries.

华夏文化史上是非常强大的，并且抵制任何变动。中国现今正在为除去任何西方文化对华夏文化留下的印记做出意义重大的努力， 继续150年前突然停滞不前的文明。类似于18世纪和19世纪面对西方文化的到来时，清政府展现出来的傲慢和自负。
（乱入：据说在 《东方化-亚洲世纪的战争与和平》说到有次中国在接待美国一流的代表团的时候（满是亿万富翁和举足轻重人物）非常傲慢地说中国代表了几千年的文明，而美国200年历史不过是其中一段小插曲，让他们恼火和惊奇中国面对西方不再卑躬屈膝 ）

 -------------译者：mich-审核者：珂求一生------------

In addition the west tends to view China as a monolithic nation. It is not. The ancient fault lines remain in the non- Han people that practice the Huaxia culture within modern China. This is the greatest fear of the Chinese - and the PRC - the fracturing of China similar to the fate endured by the USSR.

另外西方趋向视中国为是一个整体，但其实它不是。
自古文化的断层依旧保留非汉族人士身上，他们在现代中国练习习惯这华夏文化。这是中国人最大的恐惧-也是中华人民共和国的恐惧-害怕中国的分裂跟苏联遭受一样命运.

All this said the rise of China is not inevitable nor is it prohibited to happen It could happen as the PRC desires. Merely that the path forward faces some historical problems that potentially can disrupt the plans of Asian dominance and reside in the PRC’s ability to successfully navigate them.

这一切都表示，中国的崛起是并不是不可避免的也不是不可能，它有可能像中华人民共和国所期望的那样崛起。只不过是前进的道路面临会一些历史问题，潜在破坏统治亚洲的计划，这要看中华人民共和国是否有能力成功的引导。（其实在这个人眼里，中华人民共和国是中国历史进程的一部分而已。比较客观）

-------------译者：freemimo-审核者：mich------------

Anonymous
Answered Aug 23 2016
Japan too looked unstoppable just a few decades ago. The Soviet unx was projected to overtake the US economy in the early 80s. But conformism demographics and disastrous economic policies proved fatal to both. China seems to have exactly these same problems only magnified many times over. It is relatively easy to produce phenomenal growth when you are just catching up and copying other economies but when it comes to innovating only an open free and diverse society can deliver growth. I for one will not be surprised to see China ultimately share the fate of Japan and the Soviet unx.

日本在几十年前看起来也势不可挡。苏联曾计划在80年代初期经济上超越美国。但盲目保守，人口因素和灾难性的经济政策共同导致了它们的致命下场。中国看起来和它们有着同样的问题，只是放大了好多倍而已。当你赶上和模仿其他经济体时，相对容易能有惊人的增长；但当你需要创新方面，只有开放、自由和多样化的社会才能带来增长。毫无疑问我将看到中国重蹈日本和苏联的覆辙。