[ 美国 华盛顿邮报 ] 中美贸易战，谁是赢家 [美国媒体]

In a U.S.-China trade war, who has moreto lose?
ByHeather LongApril 5 Email the author

中美贸易战，谁损失大


 
（上图为视频截图，原文视频中为一段新闻）
China is putting tariffs on Americanproducts. How does this affect U.S. politics?
On July10, a day before the NATO Summit in Brussels, European leaders emphasized theirplans to meet their defense spending commitments. (Joyce Lee /The Washington Post)

中国征收美国产品关税，对美国政治有何影响，7月10日，北约布鲁塞尔峰会开幕前一天，欧洲领导人强调履行国防开支承诺计划

As the U.S.-China trade spat gets uglier,people in both countries are asking: Who has more to lose? And how does thisend?

随着中美贸易之争愈演愈烈，两国人民都在问，谁的损失更大？结局将如何？

China has more to lose economically in anall-out trade war. The Chinese economy is dependent on exports, and nearly 20percent of its exports go to the United States. It sold $506 billion in stuffand services to the United States last year. In contrast, the United Statessold $130 billion to the Chinese.

在这场全方位贸易战中面临更多的经济损失将会是中国。因为中国为出口型经济，近20%出口流向美国。去年，中国向美国出口额为5，060亿美元，相比之下，美国向中国出口额仅为1300亿美元。

“In a serious economic battle, the U.S.wins. There is no question about it,” said Derek Scissors,a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute who has helped advisethe administration on China.

“在这场严肃的经济战中，美国会赢，这是毫无疑问的，”美国企业研究所的常驻学者德里克瑟兹（Derek Scissors）说到。他曾担任美国政府中国问题顾问。

But this isn't just an economic fight, it'salso political, and there’s a strong case that President Trump wouldbe less able to sustain a protracted conflict than the Chinese— especially with the 2018 midterm elections coming.

但这不仅是一场经济战，同时也是一场政治斗争，而且还有一个强大的理由，既在2018年中期选举即将到来之时，特朗普总统不太可能与中国来一场旷日持久的争斗。

Chinese President Xi Jinping runs a communistcountry that has just granted him theability to rule for life. He controls the media in his country and is alsositting on top of about $3 trillion in surplus cash.[Trumpseeks an additional $100 billion in tariffs against China]

中国把握本国媒体，同时掌握着约3万亿美元外汇储金。(特朗普欲对中国额外征收1000亿美元的关税)

All of this means Xi can react quickly toTrump. He can even aid Chinese companies that get hurt in the comingmonths and subsidize soybean prices so Chinese consumers don't face massivesticker shock at the store. The Chinese used similar tactics during the globalfinancial crisis of 2008 and 2009, spending heavily from their surplus reservesto stimulate their economy and insulate their people from pain. TheChinese cash reserves are not as large now, but they still have more than theUnited States has.

所有这一切均说明中国可以对特朗普迅速做出反应，甚至可以帮助中国企业安然度过这场争斗。在接下来的几个月，中国将会对大豆价格进行补贴，这样中国消费者就可以免受市场价格的冲击。2008至2009年全球金融危机期间，中国人使用过相同的策略。既，拿出大量外汇储金，刺激经济，使人民免受痛苦。现在的中国外汇储备虽已不那么庞大，但仍比美国的要多的多。

In 2018, “China can withstand much morethan the U.S.”

2018，“中国承受能力远高于美国”

Trump doesn't have it so easy. He's alreadygetting phone calls from Republican lawmakers who are angry at what he's doingwith the tariffs. On Thursday evening, GOP Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska accusedthe president of having "no actual plan to win right now" and"threatening to light American agriculture on fire."

特朗普则没那么轻松。他已收到知共和党议员们的意见，议员们对他对关税的做法感到愤怒。周四晚，内布拉斯加州共和党参议员本·萨塞(Ben Sass)指责总统“目前没有真正的获胜计划”，并“威胁要点燃美国农业”。

Trump faces backlash from Wall Street,from executives of companies such as Boeing and from soybeanfarmers in the Midwest, many of whom voted for Trump and feelbetrayed. Some GOP leaders fear Trump's actions could costthe party seats in the 2018midterm elections.

特朗普面临着来自华尔街、波音(Boeing)等公司高管以及中西部大豆农场主的强烈反对，他们当中曾经投票支持特朗普的人感到被背叛。一些共和党领袖担心特朗普的行为可能会在2018中期选举中失去政党席位。

“Within the next 12 months, China canwithstand much more than the U.S. can withstand,” said Evan Medeiros, managingdirector at the Eurasia Group and a former senior adviser to PresidentBarack Obama on Asia. “The Chinese aren't constrained by the rule of law or arepresentative democracy.”

欧亚大陆董事总经理埃文·梅德罗斯(Evan Medeiros)表示：“未来的12个月，中国的承受能力远远超过美国。”埃文·梅德罗斯曾担任美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)亚洲问题高级顾问。“中国不会受法规或代议民主的约束。”



While much of the focus so far has been ontariffs — Trump has threatened to put tariffs on about $150 billion worth ofChinese goods and services, and China has respondedso far with threats of tariffs on $50 billion of U.S. goods —China has more levers it can pull to punish the United States.

目前大部分焦点集中在关税上，既，特朗普威胁要对价值约1，500亿美元的中国商品和服务征收关税，而到目前为止，中国已对美国征收500亿美元商品关税进行回应。但中国还可以有更多手段惩罚美国。

The Chinese could stop cooperating onNorth Korea, they could sell some U.S. debt to roil markets and they couldmake life harder for U.S. companies operating in China, such as Nike,Disney or Apple. These Chinese actions are seen as unlikely, especially sellingU.S. Treasurys. For the Trump administration, corresponding moves aren't evenon the table, as the U.S. government doesn't have as much direct controlover companies operating within its borders.

中国可能停止与美国在朝鲜问题上进行合作，抛售美债。压制驻扎中国的美企。如耐克、迪士尼或苹果公司等。但中国摆出的架势看起来不像是来真的，尤其是对出口美国的企业。对于特朗普政府来说，他还没有应对计划措施，因为美国政府对在国内运营的公司没有那么大的直接控制权。

Trump is in a tricky situation. He has longargued the U.S. is already in a trade war with China and that the U.S. has beengetting attacked for years. He appears ready for a fight. As his presssecretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said Wednesday, "We may have a little bitof short-term pain, but we're certainly going to have long-term success."

特朗普正处于一个微妙的境地。他认为中美贸易战已开战多时，而美国一直是受害者。正如他的新闻秘书萨拉·哈克比·桑德斯(Sarah Huckabee Sanders)周三说道，“我们可能会面临一些短痛，但着眼长远来看我们肯定会取胜。”

He is also feeling confident after hisadministration renegotiatedthe South Korean free-trade deal to give U.S. automakers greateraccess to that market. But South Korea is the world's No. 11 economy, and thecountry depends on the United States for military aid. China is the No. 2economy, and it does not feel the same degree of pressure to give in to Trump.

特朗普政府与韩国重新谈判自贸协定，可以让美国汽车制造商有更多机会进入韩国市场，这让他信心大增。但是韩国是世界第11大经济体，韩国还依赖美国军援（注：咋不直接说驻军？）。中国则是第二大经济体，且它没有来自它方的压力。

Domestically, Chinese politicians facepressure to project their country as a world power, making rolling over for abellicose U.S. president a wildly unpopular proposal.

中国面临着把自己塑造成一个世界大国的压力，这点让好战的美国总统感到极为不爽。

“There is no way on earth China can be seento be kowtowing to the U.S. on this. Xi cannot say: All right, Trumpthreatened us, so we'd better give in,” said Phil Levy, a senior fellow at theChicago Council on Global Affairs.

芝加哥国际事务委员会(Chicago Council)高级研究员菲尔·利维(PhilLevy)表示：“在这一点上，中国不可能向美国屈服。中国不会去说：好吧，特朗普威胁我们了，我们最好还是认输吧。”

China strikes back at Trump's politicalvulnerabilities

中国着手特朗普的政治弱点

The surprisingly swift and strong reactionfrom China this week seemed to be a message to Trump that the Chinese thinkthey can play a long game.

中国本周出人意料的迅速反击，似乎向特朗普发出中国人认为完全可以打场持久战的信息

Trump has now threatened just over $150billion in tariffs -- or, to put it another way, he's threatened taxes on about30 percent of the goods and services the Chinese sell to the United States.It's unlikelyto damage the overall economy significantly, but it's getting to thepoint where American consumers are likely to face higher prices ontelevisions, shoes, clothes and possibly even iPhones.

目前特朗普威胁要征收略高于1500亿美元的关税。换句话说，他威胁要对中国出售给美国的大约30%的商品服务征税。这不太可能对整体经济造成重大损害，但美国消费者可能会面临电视、鞋子、衣服甚至iPhone价格上涨的局面。

And certain places in America are about tofeel great pain if the Chinese follow through with their threats to retaliate.It's hard for farmers and winemakers to understand why they are casualties in asupposed fight against China stealing intellectual property and industrialknow-how.

如果中国进一步实施报复，美国的某些地方将遭受到巨大痛苦。而农民和酿酒商会很难理解，为什么他们在一场所谓打击中国窃取知识产权以及产业政策的斗争中会成为受害者。

The Brookings Institution looked at all theproducts China has threatened to put tariffs on so far. They would affect about2.1 million jobs that are spread across 2,783 U.S. counties. Eighty-two percentof those counties voted for Trump in the last presidential election.

布鲁金斯学会对目前中国威胁要征收关税的美国产品进行研究。这些产品将涵盖2783个美国县，涉及约210万个就业岗位。在上次总统选举中，其中82%的县曾投票支持特朗普。

“Xi is probably doing a more rationaleanalysis of the situation than the Trump administration seems to be doing,”said J. Stapleton Roy, who was U.S. ambassador to China under presidents GeorgeH.W. Bush and Bill Clinton. “The Trump administration doesn't seem to grasp thefact that they are damaging the wrong people (the farmers)” in this fight.

曾在布什、克林顿总统任内担任美国驻华大使的J·斯台普顿·罗伊(J.Stapleton Roy)表示：“中国对形势可能比特朗普做了更充分研究。在这场斗争中，特朗普政府似乎没有意识到，他们犯下的错误正伤害农民”。

What does “winning” look like?

如何去赢

A key problem for Trump is that hedoesn't have clear and coherent demands of China. He and his team talkabout three problems: the trade deficit, Chinese intellectual property (IP)theft, and China's industrial policy (known as “Made in China 2025”).

特朗普面临一个关键问题，即是他对中国没有明确而清晰的要求。他同他的团队讨论了三个问题，既，贸易逆差、中国窃取知识产权以及被称为《2025年中国制造》的中国产业政策。

But there's no specific request,and the lack of one is allowing the Chinese to play the victims in ascenario where the United States is supposed to be trying to correct years ofwrongs.

由于缺乏具体要求，这使得中国能够在美国试图在修正多年错误的情况下扮演受害者的角色。

“I want the U.S. to do more against China,but I want the U.S. to do more with a plan,” Scissors said. “We need veryspecific asks of the Chinese. Instead, we just say, ‘we want you to change.’ ”


瑟兹表示：“我希望美国政府对中国采取更多的行动，但我希望美国在计划上多做一些。我们应该对中国提出非常具体的要求。相反，我们只是在说，‘我们要求你改变’。”

The president and his team sometimes saydifferent things about trade and what the goals are. Trump likes to useconfusion as a negotiating tactic, but it also opens up more ways to “win.”

总统有时会和他的团队在对待贸易目标时持有不同看法。特朗普喜欢使用混乱谈判策略，但它也开辟了更多的途径去“赢”。

“Trump can probably be bought off with somepackage of goods to reduce the trade deficit. His advisers wantChina to rewrite its entire industrial policy,” Medeiros said.

梅德罗斯表示，“为了减少贸易赤字，特朗普很可能截断一批商品。他的顾问希望中国重整整体产业政策。”

What the endgame looks like

结局将会如何

Trump has famously said a trade war will be“easy to win.” Xi isn't saying that. Xi has made it clear he doesn't want atrade war, but he will respond to anything Trump does. Xi seems to be settinghimself up for an easier political win if anything goes sour on the economicfront.

特朗普曾说过，贸易战“轻松就赢”。但中国则可没这么说过。中国已明确表示，不想发动贸易战，但会对特朗普的任何动作做出反应。中国似乎已在为经济战上轻松取得的政治胜利做好准备。

But in politics, Trump has proved himself askillful salesman. Many strategists and longtime foreign policy experts say themost likely scenario is Trump gets a few small concessions from China anddeclares victory.

排除政治，特朗普已证明自己是一名熟练的推销员。不少战略家和长期外交政策专家都认为，最有可能的情况是，特朗普会拿到中国一些小让步，进而宣布胜利。

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said last weekthat China is prepared to ease market access for U.S. companies and stopforcing foreign companies to transfer technology. If Trump gets thosekinds of concessions in writing, he would be able to say he did more forAmerica against China than Obama, Bush or Clinton.

中国准备放宽美国企业的市场准入，不再强迫外国公司转让技术。如特朗普得到此类书面让步，他就会说自己为美国做的，比奥巴马、布什或克林顿做的还要更多。

But those changes would do littleto alter the record U.S. trade deficit with China or to deter China fromplans to go head-to-head with the United States in many high-tech sectors soon.If Trump wants those major concessions, he has to be ready to go much harderagainst the Chinese.

但这些变化对改变美国对华贸易逆差，阻止中国高科技，避免与美国进行正面对抗的计划不会起多大作用，如特朗普想获得书面让步，他就必须准备对中国采取更加强硬的行动。

So far, Xi appears to be betting that Trumpwill cave to political pressure before that happens.

至此，在斗争结束之前，中国似乎押注于特朗普是否屈服政治压力。

（注：这篇文章是4月5日的文章，但有些评论一直持续到今。另，7月11日，特朗普发起对中国征收2000亿中国产品关税。）

lovelifebehappy
3 months ago
Reality Check: "He is feelingconfident after his administration renegotiated the South Korean free-tradedeal to give U.S. automakers greater access to that market. " This was ameaningless victory. Trump negotiated that South Korea increase it’simportation of U.S. vehicles from 25,000 to 50,000 vehicles. One HUGE problemwith that. Last year only 10,000 US-made vehicles were sold in South Korea. So,how much of a Trump victory can be claimed? I imagine the SouthKoreans are still sniggering with laughter over his supposed victory. If allTrump’s negotiations go this way - prepare for a bumpy ride.

现实情况是“他与韩国重新谈判的自贸协议，让美国汽车制造商有更多机会进入这个市场，让他倍感自信。”这是一个毫无意义的胜利。谈判中说，韩国进口美国汽车将从2.5万辆增加到5万辆。这里有很大一个问题，去年美在韩国的汽车销售量只有1W多。那么，特朗普的胜利究竟多大水分？我想韩国人还在嘲笑他所谓的胜利。如果这就是特朗普谈判手段的话，为坎坷的旅程做好准备吧。

doug78
3 months ago
Don’t forget he also got an export cap onlight trucks made in Korea for sale in the US. One catch - Korea does notexport trucks to the US. And Korean trucks sold in the US are made in the US.Trump announced a “big deal” that was meaningless.

别忘了他还限制了进口美国的韩国皮卡，韩国一款不向美国出口的皮卡。美国在售的韩国皮卡都是在美国制造的。特朗普宣扬的大“生意”，毫无意义。

het puttertje
3 months ago
(Edited)
You know what’s specially sad Doug? It isthe fact that so many people, specially his “base”, are totally clueless aboutany facts. From yesterday’s WaPo: “Within three to five years, Tyner's modelshows, Brazil and Argentina would replace the United States as China’s mainsource of soybeans.” How many people, do you think, are even remotely aware ofthis?

道格你知道啥是最可悲的不？事实上很多人，尤其特朗普“大本营”的人完全对事实一无所知。昨天在《华盛顿邮报》看到说，TYNER模型分析表示，三至五年内，巴西和阿根廷将取代美国成为中国大豆的主要来源。“你想想，有多少人都不知道这事儿？”

carlos fandango
3 months ago
trump thinks you punch first and askquestions later. he has no idea where he is going with this, but it felt goodto lash out at someone. he wont be around to see the end of this fight. thechinese on the other hand have brains and use them. they also know how to winin a long game, long after trump is history. they must think the americagovernment is a joke. i know i do.

特朗普的套路是，问问题之前先给你来一拳。他也不知道出拳是为了为什么，只觉得打人的感觉很好。他也不会琢磨如何结束战斗。中国人可有头脑多了。他们知道在持久战中如何取胜，过一阵时间特朗普就成历史了。他们肯定认为美国政府就是个笑话。胸有成竹有的放矢。

Sharon in Florida
3 months ago
(Edited)
One thing that I don't think the articleaddressed: China owns a large share of our national debt. If the trade tariffsdon't work out in their favor, they simply stop buying our debt. Then what? Canyou grasp what that would mean?

有件事我认为这篇文章没提：中国拥有美国很大一部分国债。如果贸易关税不符合他们利益，他们就不在买了。然后呢？你能理解这意味着什么吗？

GrandmaDebby
3 months ago
China seems to understand the U.S.farm/rural economy better than the White House does.

中国似乎比白宫还更了解美国的农业经济。

Cleopatro
3 months ago
No great accomplishment there. Theyprobably know Dump better than he does.

这算个啥，中国可能比特朗普知道的多了

protectamerica
3 months ago
Impulsive idiot wants to play long gameagainst country with thousands of years of experience playing long games? Iwonder who will win??

任性的白痴想和一个有几千年拉力赛经验的国家来一场拉力比赛吗？不用想就知道谁会赢？

fail2ban
3 months ago
“In a serious economic battle, the U.S.wins. There is no question about it,” said Derek Scissors, a resident scholarat the American Enterprise Institute who has helped advise the administrationon China." Somebody please walk me through this; we purchase $500 billionin goods and services, not as a goodwill gesture of foreign aid, but because wefor reasons of cost, supply, and service actually want the goods. If wesuddenly stop purchasing $500 billion from China, do other internationalsuppliers magically step in to sell us the same goods and services at the samecost? If you think of a trade 'war' like a regular war, the soldiers areexpendable. But in the case of trade, the 'soldiers' are the consumers, us, andI can only speak for myself but I'm not expendable. I don't want to pay even acouple of percent more for goods and services just so POTUS can impress hisbase and check "I kicked China's butt in a trade war" off his 'bestpresident ever' checklist.

““在这场严肃的经济战中，美国会赢，这是毫无疑问的，”美国企业研究所的常驻学者德里克瑟兹（Derek Scissors）说到”麻烦谁能来给讲一下；我们买的价值5000亿美元的商品服务，根本不是出于好心的对外援助，而是出于我们所需的商品服务成本低而已。如果我们突然不买中国5000亿美元的商品，其他国家的供应商就会挤进来，但他们商品能以相同的成本价来卖给我们吗？你可以把贸易战想象成一场真正战争，真正的战争中士兵是用来送死的。但贸易战，‘士兵’可都是我们这些消费者，我们是有发言权的。我们可不想为买个东西多花钱。仅仅就因为总统想给“老家“留下深刻印象，验证“贸易战中我踢了中国屁股”，他是‘史上最好的总统’。？

lovelifebehappy
3 months ago
Yes, Trump is playing Russian Roulette (punintended) with our economic well being. What use will his so-called tax breaksbe if the cost of living for the average American goes up 15 to 25 %?

就是，特朗普在拿我们经济状况当押注玩俄罗斯轮盘赌。如果美国人生活成本平均上升15%到25%，他所说的减税又有何意义呢？

ironmike
3 months ago
China can stop buying the USA debt bondsand call the trillions it holds due. This should make Trump very happy--he hasextensive experience in running enterprises into bankruptcy.

中国可以不买美国国债，而且还手握数亿美元的美国国债。这应该会让特朗普兴奋的，他可是在让企业破产方面有着相当丰富的经验。

britishbilly
3 months ago
Trump's a paper Tiger, he can't even firehis staff face to face. The White house is already trying to walk Trump'stariff threat back. China must be scared stiff. LOL.

特朗普就是纸老虎，他甚至不敢当面解雇他的员工。白宫打算要废掉特朗普的关税威胁了。中国一定会很害怕的。哈哈……

point-of-view
3 months ago
It's easy to win when you have a scorchedearth policy. In hostage negotiation terms, American voters are the hostages,and Trump doesn't care if all of them die so long as he personally is not hurtfinancially. This is what the Republican Party represents.Russia > American Voters. Trump's personal wealth >American Voters. Polluted Skies > American Voters. Trump's personal ego >American Voters. Sick.

用上焦土策略（注：无差别毁灭），赢就容易多了。在人质谈判中，美国选民就是人质，只要特朗普没亏，他可不会去关心人质的生死。这就是典型共和党人。（以下就是共和党人权重观）俄罗斯>美国选民、特朗普个人财富>美国选民。大气污染>美国选民。特朗普的个人自我>美国选民。

eggheadjoe
3 months ago
(Edited)
Drumpf is not a strategic thinker. Everyonecan agree that China uses unfair trade practices against not only the U.S. butalso against the European Union and other U.S. trading partners. China is thenumber 1 problem regarding unfair trade practices with the U.S. What Drumpfshould have done was not erect tariffs against foreign steel but buildalliances with the European Union and other trading partners to work togetherto force China to stop its unfair trading practices and open up its markets tointernational trade.

特朗普根本不能算个战略思想家。谁都知道，中国不仅对美国贸易不公，而且还反对欧盟和其他美国贸易伙伴。美国面对中国的首要问题是贸易不公，特朗普应该做的不是对外国征收钢铁税，而是与欧盟和其他贸易伙伴建立联盟，共同努力逼迫中国停止贸易不公，让它进一步开放市场。