现在中国经济增长的驱动力是什么？ [美国媒体]

What are the factors driving China's growthtoday?

现在中国经济增长的驱动力是什么？



Peter Orszag, Peter Orszag | U.S. Economist, Vice Chair at Citi,& Columnist at Bloomberg View
I discuss this topic in a recent BloombergView article, Private Companies Are Driving China's Growth. You might besurprised to learn that only 25% of China’s gross industrial output today comesfrom state enterprises. That’s a very different economic landscape than in1978, when only 25% of the output didn’t come from state enterprises. That is,most people’s image of China (as being driven economically by the state) is simplyoutdated.
Nicholas Lardy explains the current landscape well in his new book, “Markets overMao: The Rise of Private Business in China.” In it, Lardy aggregates the lateststatistics to demonstrate that “private firms have become the main source ofeconomic growth, the sole source of increasing employment, and the majorcontributor to China’s growing and now large role as a global trader.”
Yes, some sectors are still primarilystate-driven, such as telecommunications, transportation, tobacco manufacturing,electric power generation, and oil extraction. But the state represents lessthan one-fifth of the industry in many other sectors like retail, machinery,papers, plastics, and many other related industries. The state still plays arole in China’s growth, but a much smaller role today than most people realize.

Peter Orszag，美国经济学家，花旗副主席，《彭博社观察》专栏作家。
我最近曾经在《彭博社观察》写过一篇关于此话题的文章，私营企业现在是中国经济增长的驱动力。如果你得知今天中国工业产出只有25%是来自国营企业可能会感到吃惊。现在的经济形势已经和1978年大不一样了，只有25%的产出是国营企业创造的。很多人对中国的印象（认为中国经济是由国营企业驱动的）都已经过时了。
Nicholas Lardy在他的新书《中国私营经济的崛起》中对此现象做了很好的解释。书中Lardy收集了最近的数据以表明“私营企业成了经济增长的主要来源，是就业率增加的唯一来源，也是中国经济增长及中国成为全球贸易大国的主要贡献者。”
的确很多经济部门仍主要是由国家运营的，比如电信、交通、烟草制造、发电以及采油。但在其他经济行业里国营企业所占比重不到五分之一，比如零售、机械、造纸、塑料等诸多相关产业。国营企业仍会在中国经济增长中发挥重要作用，但其作用比许多人认为的要小很多。

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X. Huang, studied at University of Life
Answered Dec 8, 2016
1. hardworking and diligence. The Chineseis never the happy-go-lucky sort, has no tradition of hedonism. China's reformand opening up since 1978 is an excellent outlet for pent-up entrepreneurship.
2. dedication. Doctors, soldiers,policemen, teachers etc are low-paid, or underpaid, as a matter of fact, manyof them can be otherwise engaged to get high paid. One cannot put a price onthat sort of royalty and Chinese patriotism. They provide the social stabilityfor the economic growth.
3. the colossal infrastructure buildingendeavor. Compared with India, China provides 24 non-stop power supply, letalone roads, bridges, trains.
4. independent military and self-reliance.Remember that France left NATO’s integrated military structures.
5. the nation is big enough to bargain withUS/Europe/Russia, also a market magnet attracting companies from all over theworld. This gives rise to the so-called market for technology strategy. Forexample, High Speed Train (Bullet Train) , China was able to import and utilizetechnologies from France/Germany/Japan, which were competing to get a footholdin the biggest high-speed rail market, happily giving away their precioustechnologies to China. By January 2011, China had the world’s longesthigh-speed rail network with about 8,358 km (5,193 mi) of routes capable for atleast 200 km/h (124 mph) running in service including 2,197 km (1,365 mi) ofrail lines with top speeds of 350 km/h (217 mph).[ref: High-speed rail in China- Wikipedia] From this example, one can see China's strategies to leapfrog thedeveloped countries.
6. the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), offera way of amassing a collective national effort to build big things. Anexcellent example is the so-called Two Bombs, One Satellite (Chinese:两弹一星), anearly nuclear and space project of the People's Republic of China, in which,China pooled all the scientific minds of the nation, poured money into theprojects. Same things happen to the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System(China’sGPS counterpart), 3G/4G/5G Cellular network standards, etc. I wonder whichcountry can do that. In the same way, China is aiming at IC, Aircraft engine,aircraft carrier, automobiles, large passenger aircraft(China's answer toBoeing and Airbus) and Chinese space program.
7. controlled and half-open. Like banks andother protected industries, like film industry. China was able to survive 1997Asian financial crisis.
8. meritocracy, technobureaucratic, techsavvy. The Communist Party runs the country with a vision.
9. climbing up the value-chain ladders.From shoes to mobile phones, to telecommunication equipments, to high-speedrail technologies and quantum telecommunication. All are made-in-China, becomesindigenous technologies, effectively reduce the product prices worldwide,Western monopoly on a certain made-in-China product is over, which meansnightmare for both developing and developed countries. The Economist: Made inChina - New, Improved and Stronger than ever

X.Huang，就读于生活大学。
1 勤劳肯干。中国人从不是逍遥派，没有享乐主义传统。1978年的改革开极大释放了中国人压抑已久的企业家精神。。
2 奉献。医生，士兵，警察，教师的工资都不高，实际上他们可以找到更高工资的工作。然而忠诚和爱国是无价的。他们为经济增长提供了稳定的社会环境。
3 努力建设大型基础设施工程。和印度相比，中国可以提供24小时不间断的电力供应，更不用说道路、桥梁、火车了。
4 在军事上实行独立自主自力更生政策。
5 国家足够大可以与美国、欧盟和俄罗斯讨价还价，同时巨大的市场也吸引了全世界的公司。这使得所谓的科技战略市场的崛起。例如，高速铁路（子弹头列车），中国能够进口并利用法国、德国和日本的技术，因为这些国家为了能在最大的高铁市场上取得一席之地而欣然把珍贵的技术送给中国。截止到2011年1月，中国拥有世界上里程最长的高速铁路网，运营时速最低200公里的线路有8358公里长，最高时速350公里的路线有2197公里长。
6 中国政府可以汇集全国之力建设大型项目。所谓的“两弹一星”项目就是一个很好的例子，这个中华人民共和国早期的核子与空间项目，倾注了全中国的科学智慧和财物。同样的项目还有北斗导航系统（GPS的中国对应版），3G/4G/5G通讯蜂窝网络标准等等。我好奇还有哪个国家可以这样做。中国用同样方式瞄准了其他项目，诸如芯片、飞机引擎、运输机、汽车、大型客机（中国对波音和空客的回答）还有中国的空间项目。
7 全局控制部分开放。诸如银行业和电影业等产业都是受到保护的，中国因此才能在1997年的亚洲金融危机中幸存下来。
8 精英治国，技术官僚。中国政府治理国家是富有远见的。
9 向价值链上层进发。从鞋子到手机，从通讯设备到高铁技术和量子通讯。所有的中国制造都在技术上实现了本地化，有效降低了全球产品价格，西方对特定中国制造产品的垄断结束了，这也同样是发达国家和发展中国家的噩梦。链接：经济学人：中国制造——更新、更好、更强。

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Colin Davies, The truth is unpleasant.
There are a lot of factors for China'sgrowth but there is only one real driver.
That principle 'driver' of Chinese growthis successful development of the infrastructure.
This in infrastructure ranges from Megaprojects like the South to North water diversion system to tweaks in theeducation system.
Little gets in the way of theinfrastructure.
One of the best examples is the Chineserail network.  The USA got a massiveboost when it developed its highway network. And China got an even bigger boostfrom the rail network. Except this network is being continually enhanced.
The Chinese Mega projects are unbelievableto engineers in the western world. Not just the size of the projects but thefact that they are achieved without political interference.
The minor projects in China are tested inisolated areas and then rolled out quickly across the nation
Here is a list of projects happening inChina. Google Translate
Also there are many related to Chinainfrastructure projects happening around the world. Such as the Nicaraguacanal, African Iron mines, Trans South American Railways.
This infrastructure is quite like thesaying "all roads lead to Rome".
Now its more like "all rail is toChina"
Recently China has had a small economiccrisis, however completion and utilisation of all the new infrastructure willdrive growth.
There have been plenty of failures in theinfrastructure development such as the ghost cities. However 9 out of every 10cities have taken off.

Colin Davies，事实总是让人不舒服。
中国增长有很多因素，但是真正的驱动力只有一个。
中国增长主要的驱动力就是基础设施建设的成功。
这些基础设施的范围从大型的南水北调工程到调整教育系统。
基础设施建设基本不会遇到什么阻碍。
最好的例子就是中国的铁路系统。美国在建设高速公路网的时候曾经历了一段高速增长时期。而中国从高铁网中获得的加成则更多，不一样的是，中国的高铁网仍在继续增强。
中国的超级工程对西方世界的工程师们来说简直难以置信。然他们吃惊的不仅仅是工程规模，而是这些工程完成的过程中没有受到任何政治妨碍。
中国先是在一些孤立地区做一些小的项目试验，然后再推广到全国。
这是一份中国在建项目的清单【链接】。
而且世界各地都有很多和中国有关的基础设施项目。比如尼加拉瓜运河，非洲铁矿，横跨非洲铁路。
这些基础设施非常像一句老话：条条大路通罗马。
最近，中国经济遇到了一点小危机，然而新基础设施的完工和应用将会继续驱动增长。
当然中国在基础设施发展中有很多失败的案例，比如鬼城。
然而这样的城市还不到十分之一。

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David McDonald, Undergraduate Economics & Public Management, University ofGuelph (2020)
Answered Mar 26
To make sense ofChina’s next decade, it is critical to grasp that there is no single driver ofthe nation’s future. Instead, four very different drivers are pushing thecountry forward at once, all powerful, and all interacting with each other inunanticipated ways.
The first driver is an aspect of thecountry’s economy and culture that I call “Open China.” The emerging potentialof China’s consumer markets is well known to outside producers, many of which,like General Motors, have already come to depend on these markets for theirprofitability. Unlike other leading economies in Asia, including Japan andSouth Korea, China began opening its markets to foreign companies at the verystart of its economic reforms and it has opened them ever wider ever since.
At the same time, the Chinese people haverapidly advanced as consumers; the wealth created by China’s growth has createda substantial middle class. Putting a precise number on the size of thissegment of the population remains tricky, but however large it is, China’s currentmiddle class is a mere fraction of what it will become as hundreds of millionsmore people join its ranks during the next decade.
After this honeymoon phase, the Chinese massmarket will morph into a vast, highlydifferentiated and sophisticated multi-tiered consumer economy capable ofdriving growth for Chinese and global businesses alike. This growth trajectoryrepresents a powerful short-term opportunity for major non-Chinese companies(for example, in helping to develop the retail sector of this nation) and adaunting long-term challenge in terms of maintaining market share.
The second driver is “Competitive China.” Hundreds of thousands of new Chinese companies have madethis country the world’s most competitive business environment. Indeed, Chinais now the world’s largest and fastest-growing source of entrepreneurialstart-ups. It is also an incubator for large businesses,both foreign and home-grown. Nearly 300,000foreign-invested businesses have been established in China, vying to tapinto the country’s manufacturing base and reach its consumer andbusiness markets.
The third driving force is “OfficialChina”: the shifting direction and role of the government and Communist Party.The government has managed the liberalization of many parts of the economy, butit has maintained control over its strategic heights by retaining ownership ofthe core group of state-owned enterprises in the finance, communications,energy, resources and media sectors.
Contrary to the hopes of many foreigninvestors, Official China has no intention of letting go of these companies,and it will maintain tight control over those parts of the economy that itwishes to manage. But as it faces the challenges of internal complexity andexternal engagement, it will evolve toward a nondemocratic but market-drivenform of rule that, arguably, has never been seen on the world stage before.
The fourth driving force is the [existenceof] “One World” with which China, like all other countries, is interdependentas never before. Globally connected power, communications and transportationlinks now exist almost everywhere in China.
The nature of “one world” and the open,entrepreneurial qualities of China will reinforce each other in unexpectedways. Goods developed there will be marketed to the rest of the world. Chinesecompanies, meanwhile, will increasingly go abroad to find new sources oftechnology and business skills, particularly for innovation, brand building andaccess to international finance.

David McDonald，加拿大安大略省圭尔夫大学经济与公共管理专业在读。
要想弄清中国未来十年的趋势，最要紧的就是要明白该国的驱动力不是一个，而是四个。这四个因素在同时推动该国的发展。每一种因素都很强力，且这些因素都以难以预测的方式彼此影响。
第一种驱动力是该国经济文化的一个方面，我称之为“开放的中国。”中国消费市场正在呈现的潜力已经为外国厂商所熟知，很多像通用这样的公司已经开始靠这些市场来赚取利润。和其他亚洲主要经济体如韩国日本不同，中国从经济改革一开始就对外国公司开放了自己的市场，开放力度也是前所未有。
与此同时，中国人的消费能力也在快速增强；中国增长所创造的财富催生了一批富裕的中产阶级。这一群体的具体人数不得而知，但不管现在有多少，下一个十年将会有成百上千万的人加入其中。
在这段蜜月期之后，中国的大众市场将会是一个巨大的，高度细分的消费者经济市场，它同样能够成为中国和世界经济的驱动力。这种增长轨迹对大部分外国公司来说，代表了一种强力的短期机会（比如，通过帮助该国的零售业发展），同时他们又怕长期难以保住市场份额而气馁。
第二个驱动力就是“中国的竞争力。”成千上万的新公司造就了中国世界上竞争最激烈的商业环境。实际上，中国现在已经成了世界上最大也是增长最快的创业公司产生地。同时，不管对外国企业还是本国企业来讲，中国也是大企业的孵化器。为了能够利用中国的制造基地并接触到该国消费市场，近30万家外资公司进入了中国。
第三个驱动力就是“中国政府”：中国政府和政党方向与角色的转变。政府解放了经济的很多方面，但一直通过保持在某些经济领域，比如金融、电信、能源、资源和媒体等行业中国有企业的核心集团所有权来保持自身在战略高度上拥有控制权。
与很多外国投资者的预期相反，中国政府没有想让这些外国公司离开的意思，但也仍会继续牢牢控制那些它想控制的经济领域。但如果内部情况变得复杂或受到外部干预，它将会转变成一种非西式民主的但以市场为驱动力的某种形式的政府，可以认为，这种转变在世界舞台上是前所未见的。
中国有“世界同一”经济开放的本性和企业家特性，这几方面特征以难以预料的方式彼此强化。质量因此精炼的商品将会销往世界其他市场。与此同时，中国公司也会逐渐走出国门去寻找新的科技来源和商业技巧，尤其是与创新、品牌塑造、进入国际金融市场相关的技术技巧。

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Sree VenkateswarluVemulapati, B Tech Engineering
Answered Oct 16
Originally Answered: Which factors explainChina's growth?
It was a well planned & well executedexercise , unleashed by Deng Xiaoping in late 70s .Being a single party Govt , did help the country
Massive increase in agriculturalproductivity
Restrictions on Population growth ( onechild policy)
Export led Growth
High rate of savings funding massiveinfrastructure development
Free Market - By showcasing the massivemarket , Chinese could get best Technologies , high level of FDI
Massive Modernisation of Industrial sectorto meet Export competitiveness
Special Economic Zones to ensure thatExport led industries get the cluster advantage of shared skill pool , bestinfrastructure , financial incentives like duty waiver etc
Big role for Local Provinces/Municipalities to develop infrastructure around their area
Massive Institutions , with expertise inwide range of areas to help the country to absorb the technologies imported ,better them and initiate long term measures for self sufficiency
Competitive Inflationmanagement
Competitive Exchange rate management
Ensuring skill development of its workforce
Govt protecting the interests of theindustries to ensure that their capacities are fully utilised and their exportcompetitiveness maintained
Ease of doing business for domestic unitsas well as for foreign companies
Banks providing timely and low cost capital, even providing low cost long term loans to maintain Exports
Attracting the best talent educated/trainedin Europe/ US back to China to participate in Nation’s development
In summary , a near perfect Eco-system wasdeveloped for which the credit goes to all sections - Govt , Entrepreneurs ,Banks , Public etc . It is also a fact that personal as well asprocess efficiency is perhaps the best in China ( partly due tocultural factors ???? )

Sree Venkateswarlu Vemulapati，工程技术学士。
原问题：中国增长的原因有哪些？
是70年代末期由邓小平开始的良好的计划力和执行力。一党执政确实帮助了这个国家。
农业产出大量增加；
控制人口增长（一孩政策）；
出口引领增长；
高储蓄率为大型基础设施发展提供了资金；
自由市场——只要展现出自己巨大的市场，中国人就能得到最好的技术，最高级别的外国直接投资；
为应对出口竞争而进行的大规模工业现代化；
建立经济特区保证出口产业可以在共享技术、基础设施、金融刺激措施比如免税等等方面获得集群优势。
当地省市政府对本地区基础设施发展担当了重要角色；
大量研究机构拥有诸多领域专家，帮助国家吸收改进引入的技术并开始研究能够长期自给自足的方法；
竞争性通货膨胀管理；
竞争性汇率管理；
确保劳动力的技能得到发展；
政府保护各产业利益从而确保他们可以完全发挥能力并保持住竞争优势；
让国内国外公司经商变得便利；
银行定时提供低息资金，甚至为了保持出口提供长期低息贷款；
吸引美国和欧洲最好的人才回国参与中国发展；
总之，一个几近完美的生态循环系统形成了，这要归功于参与其中的各方，包括政府、企业、银行、公众等等。还有一个事实是，中国的个人效率可能也是最好的（可能部分是因为文化因素？？？）。

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Jamie Cawley, Author of "Beliefs and the world they have created. Lives inChina
Answered Oct 16
Originally Answered: Which factors explainChina's growth?
The huge joke is that, with hundreds ofthousands of ‘Economists’ in the world, no-one knows, no one has the recipebook that was used to suddenly transform a poor country into a rich one.
I think this is quite a strong problem forthe way economics is studied today. Not only are its forecasts worse than thoseof studious lay persons but its understanding of the past is nugatory. Thecauses, not only of China’s sudden growth, but every sudden burst of growthsince the original Industrial revolution remain unknown. I believe we need tofundamentally change what is studied in economics,

Jamie Cawley，《信仰极其所创造的世界》作者，住在中国。
原问题：中国增长的原因有哪些？
最搞笑的就是，世界上有成千上万的“经济学家”，却没有一个人知道，也没有人写出一本有用的书能把一个穷国骤然变富。
我认为这也是现代经济学家研究方法上存在的一个巨大问题。不仅是因为他们的预测连经济学爱好者都不如，而是因为他们对过去的理解也毫无价值。
不仅仅是中国的突然增长原因是未知的，自工业革命时期开始的每一次爆发式增长的原因都是未知的。我相信我们需要从根本上改变经济学的研究方法。

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Jared Lee, works at Qatar Airways
In the recent past, the main engine ofChina's growth had been driven largely by activities of the state ownedenterprises and provincial governments. This had spawned over borrowingand inefficient government linked companies that provided employment at theexpense of the environment, efficiency and productivity.
With the new president and politburo, theaim is to drive private consumption and enterprise to become the engine offuture growth for China.  
However, to achieve this, a lot ofstructural changes will have to be made. This would also require more risk taking in the society and acceptanceof failure on the path to privatization. The challenge is to minimize mass layoffs that will be necessary if theinefficient government linked enterprises are to be allowed to die off.

Jared Lee，就职于卡塔尔航空。
过去这些年，中国的增长主要是由国营企业和省级政府驱动的。这些与政府有关系的企业虽能提供就业，却也滋生了过度借款并效率低下，还要付出环境、效率和生产力的代价。
新主席和政治局执政后的目标是让私人消费和私人企业变成中国未来增长的引擎。
要达到此目的就要做出很多结构上的改变。这就要求冒更多的社会风险还要接受私有化失败的结局。
中国面临的挑战就是，如果让低效率的政府企业依次关停，则必须要将失业规模最小化。

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Will Li, works at The Magic Circle
Answered May 6, 2015
Several things you might think relevant toChina's growth:
A Stable and Powerful Government
Though this has been one of the mostcriticized areas by the west, one party- Communist Party, ruling modeldefinitely contributes most to current growth of China.  We never deny the huge success of a freemarket, just look at America, but as a country that just stands up from a hugedisaster and chaos (culture revolution), what China needs is not a completelyfree market but a stable social environment to better implement government'spolicy.  And the government concentratedall its resources on developing economy, though regretfully at the expense ofnatural environment and sometimes human rights. But if we set aside such human rights issue (I am not saying it is rightor wrong), the huge growth China archived today mainly comes from such a stableand powerful government.
Large Population
This is a well-known advantage without muchcontroversy.  Huge population means lowprice of human resources.  As a result,the labor intensive industries, like manufacturing, are burgeoning during thedevelopment of China.
Hardworking Tradition
As a country that has more than fivethousand history, people living here have been accustomed to work hard.  From very ancient time, they struggled tocompete with nature and later on with the brutal governing of emperors("Huang Di in Chinese"). Working hard to feed themselves and theirfamily are flowing in their blood.  Nowonder why so many Chinese would tolerate low pay and intensive work.  
But, I would say and as every one predictsthat, such growth model could not sustain a long time on its own.  It has already raised so many problems, likeinequality, environmental problems, violation of human rights, etc. Therefore,even though it is at a high speed of growth currently, if nothing changes inthe structures both politically and economically, such growth would probablylose its speed one day.

Will Li，就职于The Magic Circle公司。
要研究中国的增长，你也许要考虑以下几点：
1 一个稳定而强力的政府
尽管这方面是被西方社会批评最多的，但一党制绝对为中国增长做出了很大贡献。我们从没有否认自由市场经济的巨大成功，看看美国就知道了。但作为一个刚从巨大混乱和灾难中站立起来的国家，中国需要的不是一个完整的自由市场，而是一个稳定的社会环境使得政府的政策能够更好的贯彻实行。而政府也可以把资源集中到发展经济上来，当然遗憾的是要付出环境的代价，有时还要付出人权代价。但如果我们把人权问题放在一边（我不会评论对错），中国现在实现的巨大增长主要是因为有一个如此稳定和强力的政府。
2 巨大的人口数量
这是一个毫无争议众所周知的优势。庞大的人口数意味着低价的人力资源。结果就是诸如制造业这样的劳动密集型产业在中国的发展过程中急速成长。
3 勤劳苦干的传统
作为一个有五千多年历史的国家，这里的人民已经习惯于努力工作。在很早时候，中国人民就要和自然环境以及皇帝的野蛮统治作斗争。勤劳苦干养活自己和家人的传统已经融入到了他们的血液中。如此多的中国人能够忍受高强度的底薪工作也就不奇怪了。
但我还是要说一些很多人已经预测过的东西，这样的增长模式是无法长期维持的。现在已经出现了很多问题，比如不平等，环境问题，违反人权等等。因而尽管中国现在是在高速增长，但如果不在政治和经济结构上做出改变，这样的增长可能有一天就要失速。

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Paul Howard Surridge, businessman public speaker mentor playwrighttheatre director
China has one of the largest populations inthe world. Most of it's inhabitants even today live in poverty. China's growthin recent years has been largely driven by low wages and an ability as a nationto manufacture almost anything to a high [reasonably] quality at rock bottomprices. As China's people demand high wages as they are and become consumersthemselves so the cost of labour will rise [and is] which means that theirability to manufacture at low prices will change [and is] The net result isthat it will become harder for China to export which will slow it's growth.Most emerging economies- South American economies included - have witnesseddouble digit growth in the past decade but all this changes over time as theireconomies become more sophisticated. Japan was like China years ago howevertoday whilst a rich economy they suffer recession and inflation like allwestern economies.

Paul Howard Surridge，商人，公众演说指导者，剧作家，剧场导演。
中国是世界上人口最多的国家之一。很多中国居民仍处在贫困中。中国近些年来增长的主要驱动力有二，一是低工资，二是在国家层面几乎能够以最低价格制作出高质量（相当的）的任何东西。随着中国居民要求工资提高并且他们自己也变成了消费者，劳动力的价格也升高了。这意味着低价制造力的改变，而结果就是中国出口变得困难增长放缓。
很多新兴经济体——包括南美国家——都曾在过去十年中经历过两位数的增长，但随着其内部经济的复杂化，这一切也都随着时间改变了。日本许多年前也像中国一样，然而变成富裕国家后也像所有的西方国家一样遭遇了衰退和通货膨胀。

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Martin Wang, lives in China
Answered Oct 16
Originally Answered: Which factors explainChina's growth?
Concentrated power. Especially for a poorcountry. No matter how important democracy is, you cannot deny the basic fact:Without stability without development. Do democracy provide stability? Maybeyes If it is from inside, However Chinese people have chosen CCP. And CCP hasdone a really good job especially for the last 30 years. And another fact:every successful economies after WWII began with an autocratic government.
Pragmatic governing style. You have to try and adopt the best. So there are electionsin local but not global. We left Hongkong and Macau as windows to the west. Andthere are special economical zones, like ShenZhen. Basically, we valueopportunities, and try to avoid systematic risks.
Opportunity. When we need industry, wefought in Korea for USSR. When we need development aid from west, we fought inVietnam for US to weaken USSR. By the two wars, leaders of CCP also clear theopponents inside and consolidate their power, Which in turn help thedevelopment.
Population. With so many people, we haveenough manpower to producion and a huge market for our products (Which is alsoattractive to foreign investment and technology) . BTW, one child policy savedmore people from housework to producion, although it has obvious bad impact fornow.
Nature resources. If we can sustainourselves, we can largely avoid outside intervene. Large countries countriesalways have this advantage. If you are small, you have to accept foreign aidswith unfair terms. For example, Vietnam government adopts nearly the samestrategy as China, but they have to open their economy to outside, and theyhave to be cautious about political intervene.

Martin Wang，住在中国。
原问题：中国增长的原因有哪些？
1 权力集中。尤其是对一个贫穷国家来说，无论西式民主有多重要，你都不能否认一个基本事实：没有稳定就没有发展。西式民主能提供稳定吗？从内在上看也许是的，然而中国人民已经选择了现政府，而现政府在过去三十年来做的非常好。还有一个事实就是：二战后每一个成功的经济体都有一个专制的政府。
2讲究实际的治理模式，需要尝试并采取最好的结果。所以地方上会有选举但不是普遍的。我们将香港和澳门留作对西方的窗口。还有经济特区，比如深圳。基本上来说，我们珍视机会但也会避免系统性的风险。
4 机遇。当我们需要工业化时，我们为了苏联在朝鲜打仗；当我们需要西方帮助来发展时，我们为了帮美国削弱苏联而与越南打仗。在两场战争期间，政府还清理了内部的敌对者巩固了自身权力。中国有如此多的人，我们有足够的人力进行生产和消费（也吸引了外国投资和科技）。顺便说一下，尽管一孩政策现在有了明显的负面影响，但当时这一政策让更多的人从家庭中解放出来投入到生产中。
5 自然资源。如果我们能够自给自足，我们就能很大程度上避免外不干涉。大国一直都有优势，如果国家很小，在接受外国援助时就要附带不平等条约。比如，越南政府采取了和中国相似的战略，但它不得不对外国开放自己的经济，还不得不小心外部的政治干涉。

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Michaela Miller
There could be many reasons for China'sgrowth, a few could be narrowed down a large population, strict governmentrules, and their market. Even with the limited amount of children per familyChina still has a significantly big population, making cheap labor easy to comeacross, which is also related to the fact that almost everything use todaycould be found with a tag or stamp that says "made in china." Chinahas one of the most competitive business environment, and is the world's mostfastest and biggest beginning start up for entrepreneurial  start-ups. China also has a very controllingand big government, which helps in the aid of their growth. They have strictcontrol over a lot of China's industries. These industries have also have alsohad better output with the new technologies, and machinery that China hasoffered to them. Another big help was when China started welcoming foreigninvestment. They have the open-door policy, and this has greatly added to theireconomic growth. By doing this they have linked themselves to international markers,and helped import new technology, a long with creating a lot more jobs fortheir growing population. This elevated export growth, has helped increase alot of growth in the domestic industries.
I would also say form what I have learnedso far is that China raises their children, and their future to be veryhardworking. If you have that many people willing to do anything to get to thetop, or to help out their country then the country should in fact do well. Theyare willing to work hard to increase growth, in whatever job they do, and thiscould very well be a part of their growth. If they are happy in what they do,and do it well, anyplace would see growth. To sum it all up, when you have astrict government who controls the industries and the people well, you havepeople who are willing to work hard, and work for the same cause, and you haveoutput of your foreign market doing very well, then you probably have a growingcountry. Of course every country comes with problems, and not everybody will agreeor cooperate, but that isn't enough to take down allthe good aspects that are there as well.

中国增长的原因有很多，可以归结为人口众多、严厉的政府规则和本身的市场。尽管限制了每个家庭孩子的数量，中国人口依旧很多，这使得劳动力很便宜，现在人们用的几乎每样东西都有中国制造的标签也与此有关。中国有世界上竞争最激烈的商业环境，也是世界上最大的、公司数增加速度最快的创业市场。中国还有一个控制力强的大政府，同样有助于增长。很多中国行业都由政府严格控制。这些产业得益于新科技和政府机制，因此也有更好的产出。
另外一个大的助力就是中国开始欢迎外国投资，有了改革开放政策，极大增加了经济增长速度。通过这种方式将自己与国际市场连接起来，有助于引进新科技，还为逐渐增长的人口创造了就业机会。而随着出口的增长，国内相关行业也得到了增长。
我还要说的是，据我所知中国为了自己的孩子和自己的未来非常努力。不论哪个国家如果也有这么多愿意为了卓越而付出一切的人，或是有这么多竭力为国奉献的人，这个国家都一定能变好。他们愿意为了增长去努力工作，无论做什么工作都能尽职尽责。只要人们乐于工作并工作的很好，任何地方都能看到增长。
总结以上，当你有了一个能很好控制产业和人民的严格政府，有了同心协力勤劳肯干的人民，向海外市场输出也做的很好，那你的国家就能实现增长。
当然，每个国家都会遇到问题，也并不是每一个人都会同意并合作，但这都不足以抹杀那些好的方面。