唐纳德特朗普问为何"武士"日本没有击落朝鲜的导弹 [美国媒体]

Donald Trump Asked Why 'Samurai' Japan Isn't Shooting Down North Korean Missiles

唐纳德特朗普问为何"武士"日本没有击落朝鲜的导弹



President Donald Trump has headed to Japan at the head of an 11-day Asian tour, with last-ditch efforts to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis before it spirals out of control at the top of the agenda. And, true to form, the guy is not exactly being a confidence builder with respect to his understanding of missile defense systems.

美国总统唐纳德特朗普已经前往日本，开启为期十一天的亚洲之旅，其首要议题是在朝鲜核危机失控之前解决这一问题。但是说实话，基于对他对导弹防御系统的理解，特朗普不是一个可以信任的建设者。

According to the Japan Times, diplomatic sources confirm that with a Monday meeting with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe looming, our very lucid leader has set low expectations with complaints that “he could not understand why a country of samurai warriors did not shoot down the missiles.” Aside from the fact that this is essentially a racist stereotype and katanas, no matter how well made, cannot shoot down a missile, there are numerous technical reasons why Japan’s Self-Defense Forces stood down.

根据《日本时报》的说法，外交消息人士确认称随着周一与安倍晋三首相会面的日益逼近，我们这位头脑清晰的领导人已经降低了期望值，抱怨称"他无法理解一个盛产武士的国家为何没有击落导弹"。除开这是一种种族主义的刻板印象，以及日本刀——不管它是用什么做的——都无法击落一枚导弹，还有多个技术原因导致了日本的自我防卫力量无法发挥效力。

As the Times noted, the speed, altitude, and trajectory of North Korean ballistic missile tests on August 29th and September 15th would have made it “very difficult to destroy them in flight.” Per Ars Technica, the August launch of an intermediate-range missile reached an altitude of 550 kilometers (340 miles), stressing the possible limits of U.S. and Japanese forces’ Aegis missile defense systems. Aegis uses SM-3 missiles to shoot down short-range missiles in mid-course and SM-2 missiles to shoot down longer-range attacks in their “terminal phase.” However, the first option would require Aegis ships run extremely close to the North Korean coast, where they could potentially be counter-attacked, and the second is a risky bet relying on the “relatively primitive” state of North Korea’s re-entry vehicle technology.

如《日本时报》所注意到的，在8月29日和9月15日进行的朝鲜弹道导弹测试的速度、高度和轨迹都导致了它"在飞行途中很难被摧毁"。根据美国知名科技博客媒体Ars Technica的说法，8月份发射的那枚中程导弹达到了550公里（340英里）的高度，接近了美国和日本军队宙斯盾导弹防御系统的可能高度限制。宙斯盾系统使用SM3型导弹来击落中段的短程导弹，用SM2型导弹来击落"末段"的远程导弹攻击。然而，第一个选项要求宙斯盾舰行驶到非常靠近朝鲜海岸线的地方，在这里它们可能会遭到潜在的反击，第二个选项则是一个冒险的赌注，它取决于朝鲜的重返大气载具技术是否还处于"相对原始"的状态。

As Defense One noted, at its apogee the September intermediate-range missile launch which flew over the Japanese island of Hokkaido reached an altitude of approximately 770 kilometers (470 miles), which would defeat Aegis as well as U.S. forces’ Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and Japanese Patriot missile defenses. With the missile at such a high altitude, the only possibility to shoot it down would be in its descent phase—as it was coming down in the ocean beyond Japan, when there would be little point.

如Defense One提到的，九月份发射的这枚中程导弹在达到最高点时飞越了日本的北海道，它当时的高度大约为770公里（470英里），这将能够挫败宙斯盾系统，以及美国军队的萨德系统与日本的爱国者导弹防御系统。随着导弹达到这么高的位置，将其击落的唯一可能性便是在它下落的阶段，而这时候它已经离开了日本领空，来到了公海上空，这时候击落将毫无意义。

A failure to shoot down a North Korean missile could be incredibly embarrassing, leaving the U.S. and Japan with less leverage to deal with the threat than ever. As the Times noted, Japan’s Defense Ministry has basically confirmed this is why they didn’t try and that there were also “legal issues to clear.”

无法击落朝鲜的导弹的结果是极其尴尬的，它让美国和日本在处理这一威胁的时候比过去都少了许多影响力。如《日本时报》指出的，日本防卫省已经基本上确认这就是它们不进行尝试的原因，因为还存在着"合法性问题需要厘清"。

Per CNN, Abe has met Trump warmly, greeting him with custom Make America Great Again hats and taking him out for golfing and to a hibachi circular bar. But if Abe’s a little nervous about his counterpart’s capacity to handle this, he should be. In a speech to troops, the president told troops, “We dominate the sky. We dominate the seas. We dominate the land and space.” He ominously added that, “Every once in a while, in the past, they underestimated us. It was not pleasant for them, was it? It was not pleasant.”

根据CNN的报道，安倍与特朗普进行了热情洋溢的会面，用许多"让美国再度伟大起来"的帽子和玩高尔夫球、炭火烧烤等活动来迎接他。但是如果安倍对美国总统处理这一问题的能力有所紧张的话，那他的确应该如此。在一次针对军队的演讲中，美国总统高速军队："我们主宰着天空。我们主宰着海洋。我们主宰着陆地和太空。"他用充满威胁性的语气补充称："在过去，他们每一次都低估了我们。这不会让他们愉快的，对吧？这是令人不悦的。"

Last month, news broke that the reason Secretary of State Rex Tillerson allegedly called Trump a “moron” was because he wanted to expand the U.S. nuclear arsenal from 4,000 to 32,000 nukes, even though the current stockpile is more powerful than ever. The guy is playing with fire, and he just doesn’t give a damn how hot it is. He’s pouring gasoline.

上个月，有新闻爆料称国务卿蒂勒森曾经称呼特朗普为"蠢货"，这是因为他想要将美国的核武库的核弹数量从4000枚扩充至32000枚，即便现在的库存量已经比过去的威力更大了。美国总统正在玩火，他压根不关心这一问题有多棘手。他是在火上浇油。



[–]iamnotbillyjoel 6570 points 1 day ago 
It seems like a strange question even if you remove the Samurai, because Japan has already committed itself to shooting down ICBMs that are headed towards Guam.

即便你将"武士"一词移除，仍然是一个很古怪的问题，因为日本已经承诺会击落射向关岛的洲际弹道导弹。

[–]NotClever 2797 points 1 day ago 
Yes, the article points out that because the missiles weren't actually launched to hit Japan, they were basically out of range of the missile defense systems.

是的，这篇文章指出，因为这些导弹实际上不是用来打击日本的，它们基本上处于导弹防御系统的射程之外。
   
[–]apple_kicks 2562 points 23 hours ago 
also might be a good idea not to show NK the response time or capabilities of your defence systems if you know it's not a direct attack

如果你知道这不是直接攻击的话，不向朝鲜展示你的反应时间或你的防御系统的能力也可能是一个好主意。
  
[–]DiamondDog42 727 points 20 hours ago 
Or worse, if the system fails to destroy a missile. (Harder to intercept at any point in the middle of flight, instead of initial launch or final stage)

当然，如果这个系统无法摧毁一枚导弹。（相比于发射阶段和末段，在导弹的中段是很难进行拦截的）
    
[–]Hint-Of-Feces 274 points 18 hours ago 
Well, if we were to miss, we would at least know before its too late

如果我们失地的话，我们至少能够在不可挽回之前知道这一点
    
[–]Bugbread 557 points 18 hours ago 
We already know that there is a non-0%, non-100% chance of being able to intercept missiles. If we hit, we would know that the chance isn't 0%...which we already know. If we missed, we would know that the chance of hitting isn't 100%...which we already know.

我们已经知道拦截导弹的概率既不是百分之零，也不是百分之百。如果我们命中的话，我们将会知道这个概率不是百分之零，这是我们已经知道的。如果我们失的的话，我们将会知道命中概率不是百分之百，这也是我们已经知道的。
    
[–]GrodyBrody88 377 points 16 hours ago 
so you're saying there's a chance...

所以你说还是存在着概率的
    
[–]Whatsthemattermark 183 points 15 hours ago 
There's a 1-99% chance they're right

应该是1％到99％的概率

[–]lowdownlow 491 points 20 hours ago* 
That and it's incredibly difficult to hit an ICBM on its ascent due to it being in the initial boost phase.

要在一枚洲际弹道导弹的上升阶段击中它是很困难的，因为它还处于最初的助推阶段。

Typically the goal is to hit the target once it passes its apogee and is descending, as stated in the article.

一般来说，目标在越过最高点并开始下落之后，便会要去击中目标了，这是文章里讲到的。

Since Japan can track the apogee of the missile and see that it is landing in the ocean, it defeats the purpose of shooting it down at this point. Would be a complete waste of resources.

因为日本能够跟踪这枚导弹的最高点，发现它是击中洋面的，所以当时是没有必要击落这枚导弹的，那将会是完全的资源浪费。

If you saw the recent launch of Patriot missiles in Saudi Arabia, you'd see that they launched 4 missiles to counter 1 (most likely) SCUD.

如果你看过最近沙特阿拉伯的爱国者导弹的发射，会发现它们发射了四枚导弹来毁灭1枚（最有可能的情况）飞毛腿。

I'm sure Trump would equally be complaining about the inefficiency of the Japanese government if they had decided to shoot the missiles down.

我确信，如果日本政府决定击落这些导弹的话，特朗普同样也会抱怨它的低效率。

[–]Spoonshape 11 points 11 hours ago 
I suspect the point where it is technically easiest to destroy one of these is before it launches using a bunker buster. Some people might regard this as being provocative however.

我认为在它发射之前就用地堡炸弹炸毁它才是技术上最可行的方案。但是有些人可能会觉得这样做会引发争议。

[–]IlikeJG 1516 points 22 hours ago 
As everything Trump does, this is all just pandering to his base. Implying these weak Asians won't shoot it down and us strong Americans would.

如同特朗普做过的每一件事一样，这样做只是为了满足他的基本盘。可以表明这些软弱的亚洲人不会击落它，但是我们这些强大的美国人可以。

As always he ignores truth and nuance to in favor of bragging and insults. Obviously he should know being the President that they didnt shoot it down because they immediately calculated the tajectory shortly after it was launched and decided that it was less risky to just let it pass by rather than risk shooting it down (which could backfire both if they hit it and if they missed).

他一直以来都忽视了真相，以及吹嘘与侮辱之间的差别。显然，他身为总统，应该知道他们没有击落这枚导弹是因为他们立即计算了导弹发射之后的轨迹，认定让它通过的奉献要少于直接将它击落（不管他们击落与否，都会事与愿违）。

But of course he chooses to turn it into an issue and imply they're weak for not shooting it down.

但是，他当然会选择提出这样一个问题，认为他们就是太软弱了而不敢将导弹击落。