YouTube：中国的经济奇迹要终结了吗？ [美国媒体]

The End of China's Economic Miracle?

中国的经济奇迹要终结了吗？



Jamil Anderlini, Lucy Hornby, and Richard McGregor of the Financial Times, Orville Schell, and George Soros discussed how rising wages, labor shortages, and lesser returns on investment have contributed to China's economic slowdown. The panel discussion and Q&A session were accompanied by the presentation of a short documentary produced by the Financial Times: The End of China's Economic Miracle. (1 hr., 9 min.)

在纽约，《金融时报》的Jamil Anderlini、Lucy Hornby、Richard McGregor和Orville Schell以及乔治·索罗斯讨论薪资水平的上升、劳动力短缺、投资回报率的降低如何导致中国的经济减速。这一讨论与问答环节开始之前还播放了由《金融时报》制作的一部短小的纪录片《中国经济奇迹的终结》。讨论时长1小时9分。


Tan Jason
9 months ago
Asia Society without any Asian in their panel,  strange and questionable.?

亚洲论坛中没有任何亚洲人参加讨论，这是很奇怪也很有问题的一个现象。

wisdomleader2017
9 months ago
It's like a British book club. "What's today's subject?" "Let's talk about how ancient Egyptians felt about King Tut's death."?

这就像一个英国的读书俱乐部。“今天的主题是什么？”“让我们聊聊古代埃及人对于法老图坦卡蒙死亡的看法吧。”

Uncle Putin
8 months ago
These are experts on various aspects of what is going on in China. That's all that matters.?

他们是关于中国正在发生的各方面事情的专家。这就是重点所在。

christianright09
8 months ago
Demographics,patterns,and math........................  

人口统计学、模型，还有数学……

China will grow old ,before it grew Rich...................

中国在变富之前就已经进入老龄化社会了

MrWowfire
7 months ago
The Financial Time is controlled by the Japanese? Japan is a big competitor of China? I feel there is a lot of bias in the panel against the Chinese. What is more probable is China will continue to grow to become the number economy in the world.

《金融时报》是由日本人控制的？日本是中国的重要竞争者？我觉得这个讨论会对中国人存在着很多偏见。更有可能的情况是中国将会继续发展，最终成为世界上的第一大经济体。

BandytaCzasu
3 months ago
Yeah, it's almost like a Chinese person saying the truth risks that his family in China will disappear. Like China is really a tyranny....

是的，看起来很像是一个中国人冒着在中国的一家子消失的风险在说出真相。看起来中国真的很像一个独裁国家

Alex Gong
2 months ago
BandytaCzasu all of which perfectly exemplifies your western stupidity and ignorance?

这完美地证明了你们西方人是多么愚蠢和无知

Fook Seng Loke
1 month ago (edited)
Uncle Putin Experts in propaganda. They have to drag Soros in to lend some respectability. Notice how he avoided confirming what they were trying to proof? Financial Times is a Japanese owned papers now. Once the Japanese took over, it stopped become the professional paper it once was.?

这是宣传口的专家。他们拉来了索罗斯，想要藉此获得一些面子。请注意，索罗斯在现场是多么极力地避免对他们想要证明的东西给予肯定。《金融时报》是一份日本企业所有的报纸。一旦被日本人所接管，它就不再是曾经的专业性报纸了。

汉子
8 months ago
How many analysts in the past got predictions of China correct??

过去有多少分析家对中国的预言是对的？

billy jeAN
8 months ago
It's not a prediction. It is a prayer.

这些都不是预言，只是祈祷而已。

Francis Liew
5 months ago
汉子 Zero because they look at China from the culture of the west

没有一个是对的，因为他们是从西方文化的视角出发考察中国

Fook Seng Loke
2 months ago (edited)
汉子 China's debts are in infrastructure but not in the western financial system which are purely financially system, money going into the derivatives, $500 trillion in total and pushing up the stock markets when there is little economic growth. Not all construction is in housing, there is a lot infrastructural constructions. Remember the population is 1.4 billion people and not all own properties. As long as the size of the Middle Class is still growing, it can support growth in housing or absorbing the supply. To the credit of the Chinese, they have restructured their economy more than in any other country, so what this panel is expressing is pure propaganda. In comparison any propaganda by the Chinese is chicken feed compared what the western media is doing. The MSM hardly talked of the pink elephant in the room the pending collapse of the financial system of the western developed world. What audacity to speculate problem between his the top man and his deputy! I wish he fall with his face to the ground when the western financial system collapses before the end of this year or early next year.?

中国的债务是花在了基础设施上，而不是西方的金融体系中，在西方，这是纯粹的金融体系，资金会流入金融衍生产品中去。500万亿的资金全都流入股市，助推了股市的繁荣，但却对经济增长毫无助益。不是所有的建筑项目都是住房一类的，还有很多基础设施类的建设项目。请记住，中国拥有14亿的人口，而且不是所有人都拥有不动产。随着中产阶级的规模日渐扩大，它能够支持房地产的发展，或者吸收供给侧的动能。中国人凭借自己的能力所获得的重建自身经济的成果要比其它任何一个国家都要巨大，所以这个讨论会所要表达的的东西完全是宣传性质的。相比于西方媒体正在做的宣传，中国人的宣传实在是太弱鸡了。西方人几乎不会在这种场合讨论西方发达世界即将发生的金融系统崩溃问题。臆测最强者与第二强者之间的问题实在是厚颜无耻！我希望当西方金融系统在今年年底或明年早些时候崩溃时，看到他名誉扫地。

Fook Seng Loke
2 months ago
汉子 These doomsayers have been doing so for the past 70 years but each time they were surprised by the outcome. What they failed to realize is that they were many tools available to China, being the authoritarian government that it is. It could re-capitalize the state and local banks being from one pocket into another, and unlike the US which is strapped with a USD 20 trillion debt, China has the reserves. Housing developers can be allowed to go bankrupt with the houses and flats coming into the possession of the banks. Sooner or later there will be buyers for these with the size of the Chinese population and as long as the Middle Class is still growing and why not? China is still a developing country.

这些崩溃论者在过去的七十年间一直在这么做，但每次他们都会被结果震惊到。他们没有意识到的是，这些只是身为威权主义政府的中国可以利用的众多工具之一。它能够将国有银行和地区银行进行资产重组，这只不是是从一个口袋倒腾到另一个口袋而已，而不像美国一样深陷于20万亿美元的债务泥潭当中，中国拥有充足的外汇储备。房地产开发商可以被允许破产，它们的房屋与公寓则会归银行所有。基于中国所拥有的众多人口，只要中产阶级的规模仍然在增长，这些资产迟早会有人购买，为什么不会呢？中国仍然是一个发展中国家。

Unknown to many including close watchers of China, they have not realized that China now has a more domestic economy with a larger service and consumer sector than an export one. It is also moving its own manufacturing to lower cost countries together with some management staff while staff from abandoned factories due to the slow down in the world economy (if China's economy is bad, the source of this slow down, the economy there must be much worse and it is) either move back to the rural area, some bringing technology with them to modernize farming or grow new crops to develop new products or move with the corporations moving their plants overseas as supervisors. Those "ghost" cities were not because of any strategic error in planning but more the result of the sudden slowdown of the world demand after the 2008/2009 recession which did not recover as hoped, putting a sudden stop to China's urban migration. Urban migration is a result and not a cause of growth as one panelist would want us to believe. As the world demand recovers, so will the urban migration and this will fill the excess housing.

包括密切观察中国的那一批人在内的许多人都没有意识到的是，中国现在已经是一个更偏向于国内的经济体，相比于经济体中的出口部分，它拥有更大规模的服务和消费组成部分。它还将其部分制造业转移到了薪资水平更低的国家，并配备了因为世界经济减速而从已裁撤的工厂转移出来的管理人员（如果中国的经济状况是糟糕的，作为世界经济引擎的它开始减速，那么世界经济一定会更糟糕，而实际情况也是如此）。这些被裁撤的管理人员有些回流到了农村地区，他们带回去的技术令当地的农业变得现代化，或者开始种植新的作物，或者发展新的产品，有些则随着公司在海外设厂而前去充当监管人员。中国的那些“鬼城”不是因为规划上的战略性失误而出现的，它们更多的是2008年至2009年经济衰退之后世界需求突然减少的结果，而经历了这场经济衰退之后，经济状况并没有如预期的那样恢复，这导致了中国城市化移民进程的突然中断。城市化移民是发展的结果，而不是其原因，而后者却是讨论会想要让我们相信的。随着世界需求的恢复，这一城市化移民的进程也将恢复，人口将会填满那些多出来的住房。

But the world demand growth may not come from the traditional economies - America, Europe and Japan but from new markets along the OBOR, Africa and the emerging markets. That is why China is so keen in developing these. Unlike the Western democracies and maybe India, it does not play a zero sum game, hoping to gain by weakening its competitors. With traditional markets, too, it will also not relax but it will move up the ladder to more sophisticated and higher value products e.g. aerospace, military hardware, pharmaceutical, new energy, construction expertise, high speed rail etc. They can do all these, inter-knitted into an integrated plan because of central planning. America cannot do that. The government of the day faces obstruction all the way. Although in China there is centralized planning, the markets are largely free, unlike what is often claimed. In the past week or so, the RMB appreciated against the USD. Surely this is not planned, just market forces at play

但是世界需求的增长可能不是来自传统的经济体——美国、欧洲和日本，而是来自一带一路沿线国家的新市场、非洲和新兴市场国家。这就是中国如此热切地发展这些地区的原因。与西方民主国家——可能还有印度——不同的是，中国所玩的不是一场零和游戏，也就是通过削弱竞争者来获得胜利。它对于传统市场也不会有所松懈，但是它将在制造链的梯子上不断向上攀爬，从而生产出更加精密、具备更高价值的产品，比如航天航空领域、军事装备领域、制药领域、新能源领域、建筑专业领域、高速铁路领域，等等。中国人能够做到所有这些，因为中央政府规划的存在，他们将这些领域的发展都整合入了一个完整的规划当中。美国无法做到这一点。现在的美国政府面临着各种方面的窒碍。虽然中国存在着中央集权化的规划，但市场大体上还是自由的，而不像某些国家所宣称的那样徒有其表。在过去的大约一周时间里，人民币对美元升值了。这当然不是有计划的，只是市场力量使然。

Keiser Sior
1 month ago
汉子 actualy everyone was worried deeply for China. But they shupt cus they hope China will change into a democratic society.

事实上，每个人都非常担忧中国。但是他们都闭嘴了，因为他们希望中国将会转变为一个民主社会。

Fashist dictatorship causes suxh rhings all the time.Remeber Soviet unx.It colapsed.And evryone knows now China will also go colapse.

独裁政府总是会有这样的结局。请记住苏联的下场。它崩溃了。每个人都知道现在的中国终将走向崩溃。

30trillion debt.270% of its Gdp.Thats insolvent.

它有着30万亿美元的债务，相当于其国内生产总值的2.7倍。这是一个无法解决的问题。

Phil TW
1 month ago
Rich and powerful Chinese knows better about China. That's why they flee China en mass.
Only those Chinese who are not eligible for emigration have no choice but to have faith in China.

有钱且有权的中国人更了解中国。这就是他们大规模逃离中国的原因。只有那些无法移民的中国人才会别无选择地对中国抱有信心。

Bill Shu
5 months ago
China is a paper tiger and their economy is built on faulty foundations and bad financial packages; they are a giant overrated walmart car factory. Their entire economy was going to crash from the beginning and it's going to crash soon. Also Chinese are not creators or originators, their entire military is based on stolen military schematics and ideas and tech from U.S and Russia and other countries, as is most of their economy and products. They are a copy cat rip off nation filled with people with down syndrome. And the signs of China's collapse are coming soon.....

中国是一只纸老虎，它的经济是建立在虚假的基础之上的，全都是金融坏账；他们是一个被过分高估的庞大的沃尔玛汽车工厂。他们的整个经济体从一开始就走在了行将崩溃的路上，而且很快就要崩溃了。而且，中国人也不是创造者或发明者，他们的军事力量是基于从美国、俄罗斯和其他国家偷窃而来的军事图表、观念和技术，他们的大部分经济和产品也是如此。中国是一个擅长山寨和抢劫的国家，它的人民都患有唐氏综合症。中国崩溃的这些迹象马上就要显现了……

Eryk Pyts
7 months ago
Chinese urbanisation may never reach 80%;
look at favelas (the slums) in Brazil: do you consider them urbanised? if no - why they haven't urbanised by now??

看看巴西的贫民窟吧：你会把其中的居民当作城市化的结果？如果不是，为什么他们至今都没有被城市化呢？

Mike123 ok
7 months ago (edited)
Eryk Pyts urbanization has its definition in civil engineering, the thingy slum in Brazil is not part of urbanization.

城市化有着土木工程学上的定义。巴西的这些贫民窟不是城市化的组成部分。

According to the speed in the past and nationwide stable  5 year plan, it will reach at one point but not now.  Brazil did benefit a lot from Chinese infrastructure investment like power grid. Cuz Brazil doesn't have state capitalism, won't be that fast and competitive ? ?

根据过去的和现在全国规模的可持续的五年计划的速度，中国将会达成目标，但不是现在。巴西已经从中国的大规模基础设施投资中获益，比如电网建设。因为巴西没有国有资本，所以它的城市化速度不会这么快，也没有这么大的竞争力。

Eryk Pyts
7 months ago
2 decades ago 8% of young South Africans were college-educated;
a decade ago only 7% of them were;
now only 5% are [data from OECD];
when will South Africa become 80% urbanised? probably never;
you simply extrapolate current charts: history doesn't work like that

二十年前，有百分之八的南非年轻人是大学毕业的；
十年前，这一数字只有百分之七；
现在只有百分之五（数据来源于?经济合作与发展组织）；
南非何时才会实现80%的城市化目标？可能永远都不会；
你可以根据现有的图表简单地推算出来；历史并不是像那样运作的。

Fook Seng Loke
2 months ago (edited)
Mike123 ok I don't know whether China can reach an urbanization degree of 80% in terms of population but China certainly can reach a higher urbanization than many countries because of the efficiency it has achieved in agriculture. It has even turned some desert area arable, channeling water from somewhere else. With a high speed rail network fast approaching 100k km in total length, the distance between the urban area and the cities have shrunk. The old parents can work in the farms while the children work in the city. Some children are also starting to work in the farms introducing technology into farming

我不知道有鉴于中国现在的人口，它是否能够达成80%的城市化目标，但是中国必然能够达到比许多国家更高的城市化率，因为它在农业上所实现的更高效率。它甚至将某些沙漠地区转变成了可耕作地，从一个地方引水到另一个地方。它的高速铁路网也将很快达到10万公里的总长度，城市地区之间的距离将会被缩短。年老的农民可以在农村地区工作，而他们的孩子则在城市中工作。他们的一些孩子甚至也开始在农村里工作，将新的技术引入到了农业当中。

Fook Seng Loke
1 month ago
Eryk Pyts Compare India and China. Seventy years ago, India's GDP is higher than China and India is a democracy. China is not. Today China's GDP is five times the size of India's. If democracy is not the problem, what is?

拿印度与中国比较一下吧。七十年前，印度的国内生产总值比中国更高，印度还是一个民主国家，中国却不是。现在中国的国内生产总值是印度的五倍。如果民主不是问题所在，那么什么才是问题所在？

Neal L
3 weeks ago
India's economy lag far behind China's is due to many reasons, and one of them is political system: democracy. The others are: corruption, the out dated CASTE culture, religion, and the self satisfied mentality of Indians people.

印度的经济落后于中国是由很多因素引起的，其中一个便是政治体系：民主的原因。其他的原因包括：腐败、过时的种姓制度、宗教、印度人民自我满足的心态。

ithi udom
8 months ago
the end of USA?

这是美国的终结。

Phillip Wong
9 months ago (edited)
The people in this discussion panel is ideology-driven. If all there is simply China is "big, weird, wrong", there is no point in even having discussion. Ideology is not a value in itself. People have their favor sports teams they follow. What is that really do? People who do that are not doing much of anything at all.?

这个讨论会中的讨论者都受到了意识形态的驱动。如果仅仅说中国是“很大的、很奇怪的，极其错误的”，那么讨论就毫无意义了。意识形态本身是没有价值的。人们会支持他们喜欢的球队。但是这有什么意义？那些这么做的人根本就是在虚度年华。

Mike123 ok
7 months ago (edited)
Phillip Wong true no one has first hand experience in China, they could stay in the fancy building in Beijing Shanghai and not even know the neighboring beautiful city NingBo, no one seems to speak Chinese

的确如此，这里没有人有在中国的亲身经历，他们可能会呆在北京、上海的辉煌建筑中，却不知道隔壁还有一个叫做宁波的美丽城市，看起来其中没有一个人会说中文。

wang ray
3 months ago
I truly wish Soros will see the collapse of China's economy before he dies. I bet that's his lifelong dream.?

我真切地希望索罗斯能够在挂掉之前看到中国经济的崩溃。我敢打赌，这是他一生的梦想。

morib guy
3 months ago
The only Asian they will invite is Gordon Chang who had predicted the demise of China since 90s! I think the implementation of OBOR will change everything including the future of Europe.?

他们所邀请的唯一一个亚洲人是章家敦，他从90年代起就开始预言中国的崩溃了！我认为一带一路计划的实施将会改变一切，包括欧洲的未来

Tan Jason
9 months ago
FT is one of the controlled media, and I bet they will lose credibility in big way!!
Soros as panel member is an indication of the magnitude of the propaganda in play.
I will sell FT shares because more and more people are losing trust in these entity.?

《金融时报》是受控的媒体之一。我敢打赌他们的信誉将会大大受损！
索罗斯作为论坛成员，由他可以看出这一正在进行的宣传战的规模之大。
我将会卖出自己所持有的《金融时报》股份，因为这一媒体中的越来越多人正在失去人们的信任！

Phillip Wong
8 months ago
FT is biased media. All those people are ideology driven.

《金融时报》是心怀偏见的媒体。其中的所有人都是受到意识形态驱动的。

utubetruthteller utubetruthteller
8 months ago
Even a dumb can see the Chinese problems like debt and no innovation but question is why china is still intact not failing.

即便是一个笨蛋都能看出中国所存在的问题，比如债务和没有创新，但问题是为什么中国仍然完好无损，没有遭遇失败呢？

MrMorethanexist
8 months ago
The answer is simple....Because the Chinese do not recognise 'reality' - delude themselves and ignore anything that contradicts their 'confidence' in their own brilliance....they will carry on regardless until at least 80m of their fellow citizens starve to death.?

答案很简单……因为中国人不会承认“事实”——他们会进行自我欺骗，忽略任何与对他们的光鲜亮丽一面的“自信”相违背的事情。他们将会继续不管不顾辖区，直到至少有8000万的公民被饿死为止。

Stone Lands
3 months ago
Ghost cities and similar ventures are artificially propping up their GDP.

鬼城和类似的风险投资正在人为地支撑着他们的GDP。

The Mythbuster
3 months ago
utubetruthteller utubetruthteller
LOL With debt of 3 trillion dollars and external debt of 97% USA is rated as AAA by Moody. China with only an external debt of 13% is rated at A+ by Moody.

哈哈，背负了3万亿美元债务，而且其中97%的债务为外债的美国被穆迪评为AAA级。中国只有13%的外债，却只被穆迪评为A+级。

Maybe someone could explained to me how it works? USD is not pegged to Gold appeared to be fixing it's own rate by reputation alone. Hard to understand why USA can continue to print more and more greenbacks and these are worth more than those currencies with gold assets.

有人能给我解释一下这一评级体系是怎么运作的吗？美元不与黄金挂钩，似乎只是靠自己的评级支撑着。很难理解美国为何能够继续印制越来越多的美钞，却仍然要比那些拥有黄金资产的货币更值钱。

Fook Seng Loke
2 months ago
utubetruthteller utubetruthteller You call yourself truth teller? Are you aware that the Chinese are experts in the implementation of technology. For example, mobile phone payment in China is so widespread that you can practically pay for anything using a mobile phone. The size of mobile payment is ten times the size of the same thing in the US. Moreover the same app, should as Wechat allows you to buy and pay,for what you order. China is also the largest user of alternative sources of energy. Entire cities can be powered by solar farms and Chinese wind turbines for the generation of power are also being used in the US. Some public transports are already self driving. China has the longest high speed rail network in the world, close to 100k km and amongst the fastest and most stable. For example, it has been demonstrated that a coin standing on its edge can remain standing for several minutes in high speed train moving at speed.

你自称为讲出真相的人？你是否有意识到，中国人才是技术发展的专家。比如，在中国，手机支付是如此普遍，以至于你可以用一部手机购买任何东西。中国移动支付的规模是美国的十倍。此外，同一种应用，比如微信，可以让你在其中同时购买和支付你想要的商品。中国也是可再生能源的最大使用国。太阳能发电场可以为整座整座的城市提供能源，而中国的风能发电机也在美国得到了应用。一些公共交通工具已经是无人驾驶的了。中国拥有世界上最长的高速铁路网，接近10万公里，其高速列车是全世界最快的和最稳定的。比如，人们已经做过实验，在行进中的中国高铁列车上立起的一枚硬币能够维持这一状态好几分钟。

You may argue Chinese engineers are not good enough in fundamental research. But they have demonstrated the feasibility of em-drive for interplanetary travel and will be using this in their Martian voyages. They have also achieved breakthroughs in controlled fusion and found practical use of quantum entanglement such as in quantum computing, quantum communication and quantum ranging. Unlike traditional GPS signaling, GPS using quantum communication cannot be jammed. Using quantum ranging technology, stealth fighters lose their stealth quality. The Chinese have perfected Electromagnetic Aircraft Launchers and will be implementing this in their new carriers. They also have high energy weapons more powerful and have a longer range than the American versions. For three years running, China has the fastest and second fastest supercomputer. We do not know what other dark sciences that have discovered.

你可能会争辩称中国的工程师在基础研究方面不够好。但他们已经证明了用于星际旅行的非工质引擎的可行性，这将被用于他们的火星探测器上。他们在可控核聚变方面已经实现了突破，并且发现了量子纠缠理论的实际应用领域，比如量子计算机、量子通信和量子探测。与传统的环球定位系统信号不同，使用量子通信的环球定位系统无法被干扰。使用量子探测技术，隐形战斗机将会失去其隐形特性。中国人已经完善了电磁弹射系统，这一系统将会安装在他们的新航母上。他们也开发出了更强大的高能武器，甚至比美国的同类型武器射程还要远。在最近的三年时间里，中国保持了世界上最快的和第二快的超级计算机记录。我们不知道他们还发现了其他什么黑科技。

The Mythbuster
1 month ago
Stone Lands
BBC is embarrassed by it's own reports about Ghost Cities and their lack of understanding of China. When they returned in their follow-up they were flabbergasted by how fast these premises were occupied. Many of us have forgotten China is a land with 1.4 billion people.

BBC正羞愧于它对中国鬼城的报道，以及它对中国的无知。当他们返回去做后续报道的时候，便曾震惊于整个鬼城到处都是人。我们很多人已经忘记了中国是一片拥有14亿人口的土地。

Chinese new cities are generally clean, orderly and well planned. All these are in place before their handover to owners.  Look at the recent apartment fire in London is a good example how the West should reflects in themselves first. Indian on the other hand should observed how unmanageable and badly maintained their buildings are. As a foreigner I find discovered it is just the people themselves. Nothing their Government can do. Singapore used to be quite bad but after many generations of reeducation, they finally got it right. Hence today many younger Singaporean looks down on 3rd World Indian counterparts. They described these people as folks with dirty habits.

中国的新城市一般都是干净、有序并经过精心规划的。所有这些设施在交付给业主之前都已经被安排得井井有条。看看近期伦敦着火的公寓，这就是一个证明西方应该如何首先自我反思的绝佳例子。另一方面，印度应该先看看他们的建筑的管理和维护是多么糟糕。作为一个外国人，我发现它们都是有居民自己管理的。他们的政府什么都没有做。新加坡过去也很糟糕，但是在经过很多代人的改造之后，他们最终走在了正确的轨道上。因此今天的很多新加坡年轻人看不起第三世界的印度人。他们认为这些人是一些有着肮脏习惯的家伙。

Stone Lands
1 month ago (edited)
Except that USA's debt is largely internal and they have a better credit rating than China who isn't managing it's commercial debt which is at 250% of GDP LOL. China's OBOR is largely based in countries that are too small to really matter that much economically, it's mostly smaller African countries and other places like Uzbekistan and even then it is questionable how much they will actually benefit from their dealings with China. For the OBOR to really be profitable, it'd need to have an emphasis on EU countries and with the EU being at the distance it is, sea trade makes more sense. The Venezuela situation has Chinese cash all over it, if this pattern continues in the OBOR then everyone will distrust Chinse cash more than they already do. GDP growth based on deficit spending and investment just isn't sustainable.

除开美国的债务大部分都是内部债务之外，它也拥有比中国更好的信用评级，中国无法处理其高达国内生产总值2.5倍的商业债务。中国的一带一路沿线国家大多是小国家，它们太小了，在经济方面根本无足轻重。其中大部分是非洲小国和像乌兹别克斯坦这样的地方，它们到底能够从与中国的交易中获得多少利益也始终存在疑问。对于一带一路来说，它要真正盈利就需要强调欧盟各国的作用，但是有鉴于欧盟各国的遥远地理位置，海运看起来才更有意义。委内瑞拉的局势和中国的资本有很大关系，如果这种模式在一带一路沿线国家继续下去的话，那么每一个人都将不会像过去那样信任中国资本了。基于赤字开支和投资的国内生产总值增长是不可持续的。
https://www.theguardian.com/busi ... -government-expert?

Stone Lands
1 month ago
Furthermore, China's U.S foreign reserves are decreasing and have little coercive value anyway.?

另外，中国的美元外汇储备正在减少，几乎没有什么有分量的价值。

The Mythbuster
1 month ago
Stone Lands
The problem with most Americans is that they could not distinguish what is Public Debt and External Debt.
China external DEBT is only 12.7%, India 24% whereas USA is exceedingly high at 97% and rising close to USD20 trillion. If USA is unable to service or default on its loans, bonds, etc USA economy will experience serious consequences.
USA Government will not be able to solve it's DEBT problem until it cuts spending like most Americans. Most Americans have practically NO saving to shield them from an economic crisis unlike the Chinese who save up to 45% of their incomes.
So better take China advice for USA, STOP spending and START saving.

大部分美国人的问题在于他们无法辨别什么是公共债务和国外债务。
中国的外债仅占全部债务的12.7%，印度占24%，而美国的占比高达97%，并且还在持续攀升，接近20万亿美元。如果美国无法偿付贷款、债券等等，那么美国经济将会出现严重的问题。
美国政府将无法解决其债务问题，直至它能够像大部分美国人一样削减开支。大部分美国人实际上都没有能够保护他们安然度过经济危机的储蓄，这点和中国人不同，后者的储蓄金额高达其收入的45%。
所以最好采纳中国给美国的建议，停止花钱，并且开始存钱。

Stone Lands
1 month ago
Too bad for you for that I'm not American. Foreigners only own $6.06 trillion of America's debt, not close to 20 Trillion. And Chinese oversaving is a massive problem for them and part of the reason their economy will fail because it is harming consumption too much. And China will not be able to solve it's corporate debt problem which as I said has passed 250% of GDP. Doesn't look like China will be the next superpower at the rate things are headed.

对你来说糟糕的是，我不是美国人。外国人只拥有6.06万亿美元的美国债券，而不是近20万亿美元。中国的过度储蓄对他们来说是一个严重的问题，他们的经济将会遭遇失败的部分原因就在于此，它正在严重地损害消费能力。中国将无法解决它的公司债务问题，我曾经说过，这项债务已经高达其国内生产总值的2.5倍。中国看起来不像是下一个超级大国。

The Mythbuster
1 week ago
Stone Lands
LOL if I were you I will worried more about USA first.
With USD20 trillions external debt and a total debt including local debt that exceeds over USD250 trillion, USA is almost beyond help.
China suggested a way - that is American should learn to save instead of spending money they do not have.
One of the ways to freeze credit cards usage. It will be hard but USA has NO choice.
China spend USD1 trillion from it's foreign reserves to buy USD and overcame the 2015 Stock Market Crisis and today it's stick went up by 43%.
Looks like China has a better financial Governance than the rest if the world.

哈，如果我是你的话，我首先会更担心美国。
负担着20万亿美元的外债，其总债务中还包括了超过250亿美元的内债，美国几乎是没救了。
中国已经指明了一条路：美国应当学会存钱，而不是挥霍他们所不拥有的资金。
还有一个办法就是冻结信用卡的使用。这无疑很艰难，但美国没有选择的余地。
中国花掉了其外汇储备中的一万亿美元来购买美元，从而渡过了2015年的股市危机，今天它的股指已经上升了43%。
看来中国拥有一个比世界其他地区更好的金融监管方。

Stone Lands
1 week ago
The Mythbuster http://inbusiness.ae/2017/09/19/ ... hat-big-of-a-deal/?

（新闻标题是《美国的20万亿美元债务为什么不是一个大问题》）

The Mythbuster
1 week ago
Stone Lands
Of course it is NOT a big deal.
Because USA is the borrower while the others are lenders.
If you earn USD1 and 97cents is what is needed to pay others, as a lender I would be worried. So it is all nonsense if one were to apply commonsense.
How can the rest of the world trust Moody now?
USA thinks she can get away by printing more greenback but the rest of the world are NOT fools.
Hence the reign of the PETRODOLLAR will soon be over.
China has just opened its first RMB exchange oversea a couple of days ago and RMB are convertible to GOLD on demand.
So as an investor, what do you think you should buy? World renown investment advisor Jim Roger will says either RMB or GOLD.

当然不是一个大问题。
因为美国是借方，而其他国家是贷方。
如果你赚了一美元，而其中的97美分都需要支付给其他人，那么作为贷方，我将会感到担忧。所以如果一个人有常识的话，就会知道这完全是扯淡。
现在世界其他地区如何信任穆迪？
美国认为它能够通过印制更多的美钞来摆脱这一困境，但世界其他地区也不是傻瓜。
石油美元的霸权即将终结。
中国在几天前刚刚开放了它的首个离岸人民币市场，人民币已经要求就可以兑换为黄金。
所以作为一个投资者，你认为自己应该买什么？在全球享有盛誉的投资顾问吉姆·罗杰将会告诉你是人民币或者黄金。

Ashish Bagade
3 months ago
China has 4.5 times the Skyscrapers than USA lolzzz.....The wikipedia even dexeD that page from its site so that normal american do not find out about the truth

中国所用的摩天大楼数量是美国的4.5倍。维基百科甚至删除了这一页面，这样普通美国人就不会发现这一真相了。

World Peace
6 days ago
Stupid guys!  They are still staying into the old thinking of communism, capitalism, right and left Nato .....bla bla bla, when the world is moving forward and China is setting up a new set of trade rules.  Keep dreaming people!?

一群蠢货！他们仍然停留在共产主义、资本主义、右翼、左翼、北约等等的旧式思维当中，而整个世界已经在向前发展了，中国正在制定一系列新的贸易规则。继续做梦吧！

Charles Chen
3 weeks ago
All western economists refuse to recognize two powerful elements that the Chinese government has that they despise. One element is the authoritarian form of government. Chinese government has the ability to take corrective actions to fix any problems faster and more effective than any governments in the west. The second element is the government owns all the land in China. Debt to GDP is meaningless in China. They can raise funding not only through issuance of bonds, but also through the development of land. They still own a lot of land on their books

所有的西方经济学家都拒绝承认中国政府所拥有的而他们又十分鄙夷的重要因素。其中一个因素是政府的威权主义形式。中国政府有能力采取争取行动，从而比西方任何政府更快和更有效地解决任何问题。第二个因素是政府拥有中国所有的土地。债务与国内生产总值的比值在中国毫无意义。他们不仅能够通过发行债券筹集资金，还能通过土地发展聚拢资金。他们的账本上仍然拥有大量的土地。

Ben Wong
1 month ago
Financial times is mouth piece for the Japanese. They are now a part of a Japanese newspaper.  Singapore fell to Japan because of a British traitor. Brits  beware propagander from FT.  BBC use to be a great broadcaster. FT use to be a great financial newsper.?

《金融时报》是日本人的喉舌。它现在就是一个日本报业集团的组成部分。新加坡曾因为一个英国叛徒而落入日本之手。英国佬，要当心来自《金融时报》的宣传攻势了。BBC曾经是一个伟大的广播媒体。《金融时报》也曾经是一份伟大的金融报纸。

Thinh Tran
8 months ago
China people's doesn't know they've government run all business, government's don't want any small or larger businesses to be independent. That is why in the worldwide no one's can't competitive with them so ever , because they're party stimulate and controlled or lower prices then they can nock out every company's in the worlds. So not only America company's it losses money , almost everyone does. Now the worlds is receive the messages from China not to kept up with them , if they're dont wants to lose more, get out is the best way.

中国人不知道他们的政府掌控了所有的生意，政府不想让任何或大或小的生意独立出来。这就是为什么在世界范围内没有人能与他们相比，因为他们的政党可以刺激和控制价格，或者降低价格，这样他们就能够击败世界上的每一家公司。所以不止美国的公司在亏损，每一家公司都如此。现在全世界都收到了中国的信号，它不会在与他们和睦相处了。如果他们不想亏损更多，出局是最好的选择。