为什么我们无法接受中国不会在短时间内崩溃的事实？ [美国媒体]

Why can't we accept that China will not collapse anytime soon?

为什么我们无法接受中国不会在短时间内崩溃的事实？





Carl Johnson, I am an American who has lived and worked in Mainland China since 2011.
Americans and the west are perplexing! They have these crusades to protect workers in underdeveloped countires. Show great concern for lifting nations out of poverty and to improve the standard of living around the world. And here we have China that is successfully doing that for themselves. The people are optimistic, their standard of living is improving. Wages are going up and all the west can do is optimistically hope that it all falls apart.
I think there are a lot of people in this world that need to take a good hard look at themselves, their lives, their morals and their government and focus on things closer to their own home.
I know this does not answer the question. But perhaps what we really ought to ask is why do people need to be so negative? Why can't they be happy for a nation that is succeeding on such a scale. If it is because of the failings perceived or observed in the Chinese government then I recommend that these people look at their own government first. Is there a government in the world that does not have its shortcomings? That does not have its corruption?
It's kind of like the successful neighbor who you hope loses his job I guess that is our shortcoming as a species. Jealousy.

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Carl Johnson, 一个美国人，从2011年开始在中国大陆生活和工作（美国）
美国人和西方人是相当复杂的！他们通过这些十字军东征来保护欠发达国家的工人。对帮助世界上各国脱贫及提高生活水平给予了很大的关注。中国成功的做到了这一点。中国人乐观向上，生活水平得到了改善。中国人的收入提高了，但西方唯一做的就是对中国崩溃翘首以盼。
我认为在这个世界上有很多人需要好好审视一下自己，他们的生活，他们的道德和他们的政府，并把注意力放在在离他们更近的地方。
我知道这并不能回答这个问题。但也许我们真正应该问的是为什么人们看待事物需要这么消极负面？为什么他们不能为一个取得如此规模成就的国家感到高兴呢？如果是由于中国政府的问题，我建议这些人先看看他们自己国家的政府。世界上有完美无缺的政府吗？哪个政府没腐败？
就像你有一个事业有成的邻居，你总是希望他会被炒鱿鱼，我想这就是我们作为一个物种的缺点。对他人的嫉妒。

Jon Mixon, Greatest country on Earth. Several times in the past.
China has undergone bloodlettings every 20-40 years for the last few centuries. The last one was the repression that took place in the wake of the Tienanmen Square incident in 1989 which was surprisingly less bloody than those in the past. There have been two such incidents within my lifetime (Tienanmen and the Cultural Revolution) and I am 50 years old. The possibility of another still exists as China seems to never learn the lesson that it cannot sustain governments which place the needs of their ruling class above those of its massive population.
The problems facing China are threefold:
1.       It has issues with its large laboring class which may soon not have enough jobs to keep it from becoming restive - While students can protest in China, the workers doing as such can and will destabilize the government. Unfortunately, its leaders seem to be far more interested in enriching themselves, their families and their cronies than they are solving the nation’s looming labor crisis.
2.      Economic freedom makes people want political freedom - Not much use in being rich if you have little control over the political processes ruling your country. China arrests billionaires with a disturbing regularity. If the wealthy cannot protect themselves from the government, then no one can. That's a recipe for the upper classes to spawn demagogues who can inspire the lower ones.
3.      Climate change is going to hit China very hard - Which will be worse: It’s booming coastal cities being flooded? Or its interior being parched by severe water shortages? Climate change is going to be even uglier in China than many other nations as its population is so massive that it will require efforts to mitigate the effects which will divert funding from other areas that need it. Whether or not the government can convince the masses that this is for their own good remains to be seen.
Will China collapse completely?
Probably not.
Is it fracturing or descending into civil conflict a distinct possibility?
Certainly.
China is an autocracy that never seems to learn from the failures of its past. That’s always a recipe for civil unrest to occur.

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Jon Mixon, 在过去数次是世界上最伟大的国家。（美国）
在过去的几个世纪里，中国每隔20-40年就经历一次血腥的杀戮。最后一个是对上个世界80年代末的TAM事件，令人惊讶的是，这次事件并没有像过去那样流血惨重。在我的一生中有过两次这样的事件（TAM和文革），现在我已经50岁了。另一种可能性仍然存在，因为中国似乎从来没有吸取这样的教训：把统治阶级的需求置于民众之上。政府因此无法维持统治。
中国面临三方面的困境：
1. 中国大量的劳动阶级不久可能无法获得足够的工作，这会让中国很不安宁——虽然学生可以抗议，但工人这样做会动摇ZF统治。不幸的是，ZF在不断逼近的就业危机上心猿意马。
2. 经济上的自由让人们渴望政治上的自由——如果你无法掌控管理国家的政治进程，那你再怎么富有都没用。利用令人不安的规则逮捕富翁。如果富人不能保护自己不受ZF的侵害，那么就没有人可以做到了。这是上层阶级中产生政治煽动者的原因，这些煽动者会鼓动下层民众。
3. 气候变化将对中国的影响非常大——这会带来严重的影响：中国繁荣的沿海城市会被海水淹没吗？或者中国内陆地区会极度缺水干燥难耐？中国的气候变化将比其他许多国家更加严重，因为中国的人口如此庞大，因此需要努力减轻影响，而这将会把用在其他地区的资金转移到这上面。政府是否能让民众相信，这是为了他们自己的利益，还有待观察。
中国会彻底崩溃吗？
也许不会吧。
中国会四分五裂还是陷入内战，这有一种明确的可能性吗？
肯定的。
中国是ZZ统治的国家，从来没有从过去的失败中吸取教训。这往往是导致国家动荡的原因。

Christopher Dech, I'm Chinese
I’m not sure. Maybe because China is growing faster than it can build. Or that in order to house it’s population they must destroy the beautiful nature that remains in China. Or that much of China is loving in somewhat poverty. Or that they border Russia and North Korea.
But really, what makes you think China will collapse? China’s been around for at least 3,000 years, survived a Mongol dynasty, Japanese invasion, and more. They’re rock hard. Harder than the Great Wall.

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Christopher Dech, 一个中国人（中国）
我不知道。西方渲染中国崩溃论可能是因为中国发展的太快远超西方想象。或者是因为为了安置民众，中国必须破坏拥有的美丽自然风光。或者是因为许多的中国地区生活还是有些贫穷。又或者是中国和俄罗斯、朝鲜的关系密切。
但说真的，是什么让你们西方人认为中国会崩溃？中国已经存在了起码3000年了，经历了蒙古人的朝代、日本人的侵略甚至更多。中国人像石头那么坚硬。比长城还要坚固。

Mario Rossi, 5th year in China
i guess with “every news I read from the west” you meant a selection of anglo-american media, because in continentatl Europe i’ve never read a single article about the collapse of China. I always find curious this tendency to throw in all the West as a single block

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Mario Rossi, 在华5年（意大利）
我认为你讲的“我从西方看到的每则新闻”是选择性看的盎格鲁撒克逊媒体，因为在欧洲大陆我从来没读到过关于中国崩溃的单独文章。我对这种把所有西方国家归为一类的倾向甚是好奇。

Peng Liu, college student
The U.S. Empire State will never give up their ambition of making us distinction…
haha.just a joke…

In Chinese it is 美帝亡我之心不死。。
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Peng Liu, 大学生（中国人）
美帝从来没有放弃让中国崩解的野心
哈哈，开个玩笑…
用中文讲的话就是：美帝亡我之心不死

Chen Xu
Who told you China will collapse never believed such thing, at least they stopped believing such thing long time ago.
But they have to make you believe:
1) China is evil, Chinese are messing up your country, Chinese stole your jobs (I still have no idea how a “job” can be stolen), Chinese are destroying the plane, blahblah, everything is China’s fault, not them.
2) China will collapse very soon, thanks to them.
Now you are their die hard fans.

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Chen Xu（中国）
无论谁跟你说中国会崩溃你都别相信，至少他们很久以前就不再相信这样的事了。
但是他们必须让你相信：
1.中国是邪恶的，就是中国人把你们国家搞得一团糟，中国人抢了你们的工作（我真不知道“工作”怎么能被抢），中国人在破坏飞机，等等。每个过失中国都要背锅，跟他们没半点关系。
2. 因为这些，中国不久后就要崩溃了
就这样，现在你成功成了他们的脑残粉。

JJ Hantsch, Statistical analyst at inVentiv Health Clinical
China has been one culture since my ancestors were barely employing metal implements. While it has not been one political entity for all that time and there certainly have been ups and downs for its agriculture, population and the stability of societal ordering it has not collapsed while the West has collapsed dozens of times. I do not think that China will collapse anytime soon. And I would bet my last dollar on that.
Will China experience economic upheaval? Will some people who are currently in power not be in power? Will generational shifts occur? Will the type of government be identical in fifty years? Will China struggle for dominance in certain regions and against other powers?
To those questions I could offer opinions and perhaps even a wager or two, but I would not be anywhere close to my bottom dollar.
A few other issues I am certain of. Will China’s next generation grapple with the outside world versus the inside world of China? Will the next generation find sources of pride in the actions of certain exemplars produced by their society? Will the fundamental tension between the rich coastal provinces and the larger population of the interior continue? Will China’s huge population continue to cause problems and create inequities between the haves and the have-nots? Will China’s middle class of hard-working individuals who struggle, not to be a real have, but to provide greater opportunities for their children?
Will China experience set backs and advances? yes. Will some of them be severe? yes. But China will be China for many generations to come.

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JJ Hantsch, 呼吸健康临床统计分析专家（新西兰）
在我们祖先还没开始用金属工具前，中国就已经成了整体的文明。虽然它并不是一个政治实体，此外中国的农业，人口和社会秩序的稳定都有过起伏波动，但它并没有崩溃，而西方已经崩溃了几十次。我不认为中国会在近期崩溃。我为此敢赌上我的身家。
中国会经历经济动荡吗？一些目前掌权的人会失去权力吗？代际转移会发生吗？政府管理的形式在未来50年都一成不变吗？中国是否会在某些地区和其他国家争夺区域主导权？
（注：代际转移指城市底层群体靠个人努力改变命运难度加大，其子女通过教育、就业等正常渠道进入更高层次的难度也越来越大；与此同时，父母的社会地位高、拥有权力大、社会关系多，其子女也更容易获得较高的社会地位和经济收入。一些经济学家将这种现象称为“贫富的代际转移”）
对于这些问题，我可以提供一些意见，甚至可以下些赌注，但我不会把我的身家都堵上去。
我还有些其他的问题。中国的下一代会与外部世界联合对抗中国内部世界吗？下一代人是否会为他们的社会所产生的某些模范行为感到骄傲？富裕的沿海省份和人口更多的内陆之间的基本紧张关系会持续下去吗？中国的庞大人口会继续造成问题，并引发富人和穷人之间的不平等现象吗？中国的中产阶级努力奋斗，不是想成为真正的富人，而是为他们的孩子提供更大的机会吗？
中国未来的路是否充满曲折和光明？是的。其中有些问题是否还会很严重？是的，但是可以确定的是在接下来的几个世代里中国会变得更像中国。

Parry Sun
“We” as a group can't accept nothing universally, let it be China, global warming, or color of a stripy dress.
“Collapse” is also a very broad term open for interpretation. Has China collapsed in some way? Yes. Living in almost any city in China is like living in an American movie: the Silient Hill. Environmentally China has failed myserably and is paying dearly. Will China collapse in some other ways? Likely. Thirty five years of one child policy has shaped gender ratio, work force size, as well as family and individual values. These changes have lasting, some believed devstating effects on economy, politics, culture and quality of life in, well at least 50 years. Likely enternaty.
If “collapses” refers to economic downturns, all economies go through sessions. Recession is just one of them.
Having lived in China all my life until a month ago, it is a vibrant, amazing place. As a country, it wins some, it looses some, it moves along. Overall simultaneous “collapses” of the economy, the government and the people, I don't think so. The people are too pragmatic and resilient for such idealistic epic things…

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Parry Sun（中国）
“我们”作为一个群体，无法接受非普遍的东西，这种非普遍的东西可能是中国，也可能是全球变暖，或者是一件条纹连衣裙的颜色。
“崩溃”也是一个非常宽泛的解释。中国在某种程度上崩溃了吗？是的。住在中国任意一座城市就像生活在美国的一部电影《寂静岭》里那样。从环境上来说，中国失败地很凄惨甚至付出了大代价。中国会在其他方面上崩溃吗？可能吧。三十四年的一胎政策已经导致了性别比例、工作量、以及家庭和个人价值观的变化。这些变化影响会持续下去，有人认为在至少50年内会对经济、政治、文化和生活质量造成毁灭性的影响。
如果“崩溃”指的是经济衰退。所有的经济体都经过这一过程。经济衰退只是其中之一。一个月前，我生活在中国，这是一个充满活力、令人惊叹的地方。作为一个国家，它有得有失，但它在继续前进。总的来说，经济、政府和人民的同时“崩溃”，我不认为会发生。对于这种幻想，中国人太务实，太有韧性了…

Joseph Boyle
“X will collapse” is simply a catchy cliche used by lazy writers to generate excitement. “US will collapse” and others are popular with the same people. With China it gets a little more plausibility because few people have good enough knowledge to uate as critically, and because people do know China has changed rapidly, so maybe it can change more.
How many people are seriously betting on China collapsing? Probably not a lot at this point.

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Joseph Boyle（美国）
“X即将崩溃”只是懒惰的作家用来制造噱头的一个吊人胃口的陈词滥调罢了。“美国即将崩溃”或者其他国家这类的言词也受到这一类人的欢迎。说中国崩溃稍微合理点，因为很少人有足够的知识去评估这方面，也因为人们知道中国在快速的改变，所以中国可能会变化更大。
有多少人敢真打赌中国即将崩溃？可能没多少人敢打这个赌吧。

Gang Qian, Economics student who cares
You've read The Fox and the Grapes. If not, here's the link: The Fox and the Grapes - Wikipedia
China’s becoming juicy like the grape. Guess what foxes who don't get to “eat it” would say?
It's natural self defense mechanism.

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Gang Qian, 经济专业学生，谁在乎（中国）
你们看过狐狸和葡萄的故事吧。如果没有，点这里：狐狸和葡萄——维基百科。
中国就像多汁的葡萄。猜猜看，那些没有“吃到它”的狐狸会说什么？
渲染中国崩溃是西方本能的自我防御机制罢了。