如果朝鲜和韩国现在开战，会发生什么？ [美国媒体]

What would happen if North Korea and South Korea went to war right now?

如果朝鲜和韩国现在开战，会发生什么？

I think if North Korea was attacked, it would respond immediately (60–120 minutes) but probably not using its nuclear weapons. North Korea has thousands -- literally thousands -- of rockets aimed at Seoul, where about 15 million, and maybe more, people live. This is within easy range of North Korean artillery and rockets and they would, in a sense, release a rain of fire on Seoul. South Koreans would then of course be forced to attack, and you would have one of the worst conventional battles that we’ve seen in human history. A million casualties is a reasonable estimate for a conflict such as that one. In addition to having one of the largest conventional battles since WWII, the conflict has the potential to escalate to a nuclear conflict. The North already has them while the South has the capacity to call them in based on its alliance with the U.S. A pretty bad outcome, regardless of how you see it.

我认为，如果朝鲜受到攻击，它会在60-120分钟内立即做出反应，但可能不会使用核武器。朝鲜有成千上万的火箭瞄准了首尔，那里大约有1500万乃至更多的人生活在那里。这是在朝鲜大炮和火箭的射程之内的。某种意义上说，他们将在首尔发射一场（炮弹）雨。当然，韩国人也会被迫发动袭击，这是我们在人类历史上所见过的最糟糕的传统战争之一。100万的伤亡是对诸如此类的冲突的合理估计


Tom Wilhelm, I love to think about the "what if..."
Answered Feb 1, 2016
Originally Answered:听What will happen to the world if North and South Korea wage a all out war?
1.China would abandon support for the Kim dynasty. In fact, I would conjecture that China has multiple assets in place to kill Kim Jong-un and other supporters in the event of an all out war, so that they could limit the overall damage and be best positioned to manage the transition.

汤姆·威廉（Tom Wilhelm），我喜欢思考“如果......的话”的问题
2016年2月1日回答
1中国将放弃对金氏王朝的支持。事实上，我猜想中国有多种手段可以在战争爆发的时候杀死金正恩和其他支持者，这样他们就可以限制整体的损害程度并更好地管理过渡时期的朝鲜政权。

2.South Korea and the US would, over the course of roughly a week, completely destroy the North Korean Army's ability to wage war. Most of the North's military strength is in the form of static artillery emplacements. Those would be bombed within the first 24-48 hours. The rest of the army lacks the training, firepower, and most importantly, fuel to engage with enemy forces for very long.

2 韩国和美国将在大约一周的时间里彻底摧毁朝鲜军队发动战争的能力。朝鲜的大部分军事力量都是以静态炮兵阵地的形式存在的。这些炸弹将在24-48小时内被炸毁。其余的军队缺乏训练、火力以及与敌军长期交战最重要的东西——燃料。

3.Seoul and other border cities would suffer substantial, but not unrecoverable damage. Tens of thousands of South Korean civilians would likely die though.

3首尔和其他边境城市将遭受重大损失，这部分尚可挽回。不过，成千上万的韩国平民可能会因而死亡。

4.Military casualties would be extremely high, particularly for the North. Unless China quickly defused the situation, 1 million or more North Korean soldiers and support personnel would die. Imbalanced as the casualties would be, tens of thousands of South Korean troops, plus hundreds of US troops, would likely die as well.

4 军事人员伤亡数将会非常高，尤其是朝鲜。除非中国迅速化解这一局面，否则将有100万或更多的朝鲜士兵和其支持者死亡。基于交战双方伤亡人数的相对平衡，成千上万的韩国军队和数百名美军士兵很可能也会死亡。

5.The Chinese, US, and South Korea leadership would then convene to figure out just exactly how to a) bring the conflict fully to a halt; and b) manage the transition of power. Without the Kims in power, social order in North Korea would quickly collapse. Depending on the time of year, it would be among worst and complex humanitarian aid projects of all time... or worse. At least 1 million (and probably substantially more) North Korean civilians would die from the fighting, disease, and starvation.

5届时，中国、美国和韩国的领导人将会召开会议以确定a) 如何完全终止冲突;b)管理权力的过渡交接。如果没有金氏政权，朝鲜的社会秩序将会很快崩溃。这件事哪年发生，哪年就将是有史以来最糟糕和最复杂的人道主义援助项目之一发生的年份。更糟的是至少100万(有可能更多)朝鲜平民将死于战争、疾病和饥饿。

This is a scenario that literally no one involved wants. Which is exactly why the Kims have managed to stay in power for as long as they have, even though they have set their country back roughly a century.

这是一个没人想看到的场景，这也正是金氏家族能统治朝鲜长达一个世纪之久的原因，即使他们已经将他们的国家往回倒退了大约一个世纪时间。



Eventually, step 5 is going to happen. Hopefully, it can happen without war. But even if the parties involved can create a workable transition from the Kims without bloodshed, it'll still SUCK for everyone... South Korea, China, the US, Japan, and (of course) especially the North Korean people. The cost of bringing North Korea into the late 20th, and eventually the 21st century, is going to be massive. We're talking about building up basic modern infrastructure on a national level WHILE feeding 25 million starving people WHILE convincing them that they've literally been brainwashed for decades.

最终第五步将会发生，希望那时它能在没有战争的情况下发生。但是，即使相关各方能够在不流血的情况下从金氏家族中创造出一个可行的过渡，它仍然会让所有人都很不爽。韩国、中国、美国、日本和(当然)尤其是朝鲜人民。将朝鲜带入20世纪末，并最终进入21世纪的代价将是巨大的。我们接下来就需要讨论的是在全国范围内建立基础的现代化设施以养活2500万饥饿的人民，同时让他们相信他们已经被洗脑了几十年。

Hanhwe Kim, Born and raised in Korea for the most part
Answered Aug 12, 2015
User's answer succinctly sums up everything but the more likely scenario is that North Korea will shoot/shell/mine/torpedo  South Korean soldiers and sailors as part of the way they extort concessions. The South Korean military will say some angry words but will not retaliate except in some symbolic manner (holding exercises).
Andrei Lankov, professor at Kookmin Univ. in Seoul explains the dynamics of the situation well.

用户的回答简洁地将一切可能性都概括了进去，但更有可能的情况是朝鲜会发射/炮弹/地雷/鱼雷作为他们敲诈让步的一部分。韩国军方会说一些愤怒的话，但不会以某种象征性的方式进行报复(举行军事演习)。

Andrei Lankov，在首尔的Kookmin univ教授，解释了形势的动态。
Page on ft.com
Most of us in South Korea expect that is how the  most recent explosion (alleged to be a mine planted by North Koreans) on the DMZ will be settled and hope the 2 soldiers who were wounded were not hurt seriously.

我们大多数的韩国人都认为，最近发生在非军事区的一次爆炸(据称是朝鲜人埋下的地雷)事件将得到解决，并希望受伤的两名士兵伤势不重。

Joshua Phelps, 5 years - Artillery ( 88m + 11b = 13bravo)
Answered Sep 26
MAD:
Mutually Assured Destruction
1 nuke goes live in combat, and we enter new era of war. The book says, you return the favor.

疯狂:相相互确保摧毁   
为在核战中生存，我们进入了一个战争的新时代. 正如书上所说：以牙还牙。

In conventional warfare, non-nuclear, S. Korea would sustain heavy casualties in the first 48 hours. Major cities would get rocked pretty good; but then the US gets involved. By then, we have suffered casualties; and our response would be less than accommodating. The US has gained A LOT of combat experience since our first meeting; and N. Korea has just been maintaining defences.

在常规战争中，非核化的朝鲜将在最初的48小时内承受大量的人员伤亡。大城市受到严重打击，随后美国卷入其中。到那时，我们遭受了人员伤亡;而我们的反应将不那么让人有信心。自第一次会议(半岛会谈)以来，美国获得了很多实战经验;而朝鲜一直在保持防御。

You think Iraq's conventional army collapsed quickly? N. Korea has the same benefit the Iraqi army had. Home soil, die hard fanatics, tons of military hardware; but they also lived under a dictatorship where people were treated like shit, and whole units surrendered. N. Korea would be the same. They will topple, Kim Jung Un will meet some end (our hands or his people), and rebuilding will take place.

你认为伊拉克的常规军队很快就崩溃了吗?朝鲜与伊拉克军队有着同样的利益、家庭的土壤以及死硬的狂热分子和大量军事硬件;但他们也生活在独裁统治下，人们被当作狗屎一样对待，所以整个部队都投降了。朝鲜也会是一样。他们将会倒台，金正恩将会遇到一些麻烦(我们这方面的或他自己的人民那方面)，重建工作将会进行。

If N. Korea didn't screw up too bad, S. Korea might be more inclined to help; but if they suffer major casualties, S. Korea will want to ensure it never happens again. Odds are they will take over, allow the US to maintain a new base in N. Korea while they assimilate the population into the S. Korean system.
No out come has N. Korea winning. The nuclear option only ensures N. Korea WILL be completely destroyed.

如果朝鲜不闹的太僵，韩国可能会更倾向于提供帮助;但如果他们遭受重大伤亡，韩国将希望确保不会再发生这种情况而接管政权，从而让美国在朝鲜半岛维持一个新的基地，同时将朝鲜的人口同化到韩国的体系中。没有胜利就是朝鲜的胜利。核选项只会确保朝鲜将被彻底摧毁。



Erik Scarcia
Updated Dec 17, 2015
As absurd and unlikely the idea of a 'real war' would be, let's pretend 2 scenario's:
1)DPRK starts: the only real ace up the sleeve of NK is their enormous artillery battery pointed to Seoul. They would shell the capital, thereby destroying their biggest prize in case they would win. We might see swirls of thanks crossing the DMZ and some (suicicde) submarine actions. The NK-Airforce, if used at all, would be either destroyed or unable tp fly again due to destruction of airfields and lack of spareparts.

“真正的战争”是既荒谬又不太可能。让我们假设2个场景:1)首先从朝鲜开始:朝鲜唯一真正的王牌是他们指向首尔的巨大火炮。他们将对（韩国）首都进行炮击，从而破坏他们经济以防他们获胜。我们可能会看到坦克轰隆的穿过非军事区，一些自杀潜艇展开行动。朝鲜空军一旦起飞，就将因机场轰炸和缺少航空配件而被摧毁或无法再次飞行
。
My personal opinion is that most of the NK's that would make it into SK would defect or just stop to plunder every restaurant, shop and warehouse.
Another 'silly' idea is to just let them penetrate SK as much as possible, thereby stretching their supplylines and exposing them to the riches of the south, basically let them 'starve & assimilate'. But off course destroy all navy-, air-, nuclear- and artillery forces, Which is basically the only real offensive activity SK has to execute.

我个人的看法是，大多数进入韩国的朝鲜人都会叛逃或只是停下脚步放手抢劫每一家餐厅、商店和仓库。另一个“愚蠢”的想法是让他们尽可能进入韩国境内，从而拉长他们的补给线，暴露他们南方的弱点，从而基本上“饿死或同化他们。 但理所当然的，韩国所应采取的行动就是进攻，摧毁朝鲜所有海空军部队。

As soon as the reality is exposed to NK's their loyalty, if even still existent, would melt immediately.
The NK-Leadership knows all this and would never do anything too serous to facilitate their own assured destruction, apart from some 'rumbling for food and money'.

一旦真相（韩国比朝鲜富裕）暴露在朝鲜人面前，他们的忠诚即使仍然存在，也会立即融化。国家领导人知道这一切，所有他们不会做任何过分的事来促进他们自己的毁灭，除了一些“对食物和金钱的贪婪”。

2) SK starts: First offensive actions would exterminate the NK-Airforce, All missile- and artillery facilities. We might not see too much ground skirmish when NK realises what happened. It would be a smart move to drop loads of food everywhere to stimulate an implosion in the North.
As unlikely a scenario, it would actually be quite a 'clean cut' by SK.2)SK

开始:第一次进攻行动将消灭朝鲜空军所有的导弹和火炮设施。当朝鲜意识到发生的事情时，我们可能看不到太多的地面冲突。把大量的食物扔到各处刺激北境的内部爆乱是个明智之举。

The reasons why this will not happen:
1) SK wouldn't like to be seen as a barbaric warstarter; internally and externally this would lead to uprises.
2) SK would only act if they were sure all damage to Seoul could be minimised by exterminating all threats pre-emptively.
3) SK foresees the enormous costs in virtually every area when masses of under-developed, un-adapted and hungry NK's would flood the south. A little bit like the costs of German reunification (apart from the fact that most Germans wanted it at that time). Most SK's seem to be pretty neutral or even indifferent towards unification. An opportunist might see the immense cheap labourforce, thereby making Korea a cheap producer again....

这不会发生。原因是:
1)从内部和外部来看韩国不愿被视为野蛮的战争狂人;，这将在国家内外引发民众起义
2)2)只有当他们确信对首尔的所有损害都能被以先发制人的方式将所有的威胁降到最低韩国才会采取行动。
3)韩国预想到当大量欠发达的、不适应当地生活的和饥饿的朝鲜难民洪水般将淹没南方时，几乎所有地区都会面临巨大损失。这有点像德国统一时的代价(除了大多数德国人当时想要的事实之外)。大多数韩国人似乎都是中立的，甚至对统一漠不关心。

So concluding that it would be a bad idea for both parties; things will remain in place for another few years until NK collapses or the 'Kimnasty' is replaced by others.

因此，这对双方来说都是一个坏主意;在接下来的几年里各种事情还会继续发生，直到朝鲜崩溃，或者“金正日”被其他人所取代。

John Geare, studied at Dickinson College
Answered Apr 7, 2016
What happens depends on the earliest hours of the engagement and the proximate cause.
If the war was limited pretty much to serious but limited ground and coastal water action arising from some border squabble or similar incident, then the United States and China would probably do the diplomatic equivalent of shouting, "Stop arguing - BOTH of you!" and drag the combatants to a negotiating session where strict "stand down" orders would be issued to each side. And that would be followed by a lot of name-calling by everyone.

到底会发生什么取决于最早的参与时间和近因。如果这场战争仅仅是由于一些边界争端或类似的事件而引起的严重但有限的地面和沿海水域行动，那么美国和中国可能会在外交上喊“停止争论——你们这两个家伙！”并将战斗双方托到谈判桌上，双方将严令朝韩“冷静后退”。之后，每个人都会不住地辱骂。

But if the war arose from a deliberate and concerted and massive military campaign whose obvious purpose was to totally defeat the opponent, then it could only mean that one side launched first, and that would almost certainly be the North.
Why? Because NK is very secretive, and is a "problem child" for the Chinese. Just a few days ago, China actually imposed economic sanctions on NK. Knowing that China would not approve of any military operation against the south, NK would say nothing about it.

但是，如果这场战争是由一场深思熟虑的、协调一致的大规模军事行动引起的，其目的显然是彻底击败对手，那么这只能意味着先发动一方几乎可以肯定是北朝鲜，为什么?因为朝鲜非常神秘，对中国人来说也是一个“问题儿童”，几天前中国还对朝鲜实施了经济制裁。因为知道中国不会批准任何针对韩国的军事行动，所以朝鲜不会对此表示反对。



The situation in the south is decidedly different. There, the US and SK are close allies, and military operations are a shared enterprise. Thus, the US would know about any agenda to start a war -and would intervene to prevent it. There is always the possibility of a rogue actor in SK, but that would result in the limited operations above described.
Thus, although all parties to this fracas will do plenty of finger-pointing, publicly, "everybody knows," as Leonard Cohen sung, that NK is the source.

韩国的情况则截然不同。在那里美国和韩国是亲密的盟友，军事行动的体系也是一体的。因此，美国将知晓（韩国）发动战争的任何议程，并将及时干预以加以阻止。
在韩国，总有可能出现一两个无赖家伙，但这将导致上述行动的有限的操作。
因此，尽管这一争端的各方都将在公开场合下大量指责对方，但正如伦纳德科恩所唱的那样，“人人都知道”问题的根源就是朝鲜。

Now, the situation becomes both brutal AND delicate. We are assuming that NK has opened with cross-border artillery action, missiles aimed at key targets in the south, submarine attacks on SK military vessels, and a few bombing runs by what's left of the NK air force; all of this, with no warning. We might also assume that SK and the US have drilled for this possibility. That means they will have accepted massive initial casualties in Seoul and other points near the border. Otherwise, local area defense will take down some NK missiles, but others will get through. Meanwhile, the follow-on for NK will be a massive and rapid invasion of armored columns and tanks across the DMZ. The south will scramble to organize at least a delaying action in their north, whilst troops and assets to the south will be mobilized to mount a more stiffened defense.

现在的形势变得既残酷又脆弱。我们假设朝鲜已经展开了跨境的火炮射击，发射针对韩国主要目标的导弹，潜艇对韩国军舰进行攻击，用剩下的朝鲜空军进行少量的轰炸;所有这些都没有任何预警。我们可能会认为，韩国和美国已经为这种可能性进行了沙盘预演。这意味着他们将在首尔和边界附近的其他地点接受大规模的初步伤亡。否则，局部地区防御将会抵御住一些朝鲜导弹的攻击，但其他的将会被突破（防御网）同时后续跟进进入非军事区的。将是朝鲜一个规模庞大、行动迅疾的坦克装甲部队。韩国将在其领土北部组织至少一次拖延行动，而韩国的军队和资产将被动员起来，进行更加强硬的防御。

Meanwhile, the US will be supporting SK's air assaults to neutralize NK targets north of the DMZ, and cruise missiles from US Navy vessels will visit key NK installations and control centers otherwise. For the consumption of the very alarmed Chinese, all of this must be couched as defensive action, even to the extent that delegations from the Chinese military establishment are actually allowed to see the strategy unfold in centers of US command and control operations. And on top of that, a very urgent diplomatic effort will be mounted to keep the Chinese out of the fight.

与此同时，美国将支持韩国的空中打击以消减朝鲜在非军事区以北的军事力量，而美国海军舰艇的巡航导弹将访问朝鲜的关键核设施和控制中心。对于极度警惕的中国人来说，所有这些都必须被视为防御性的行动。甚至在一定程度上，中国军事机构的代表团会被允许在美国指挥和控制行动中心现场观看这一战略的实施。最重要的是，中国将采取一项紧急外交努力使中国摆脱这场战争。

Fortunately, owing to swift battle management systems, many combat operations may be initiated while the Chinese confer among themselves as to what an appropriate reaction might be. Because the North's attack came with no warning, China will not, in the early days, have any significant assets positioned to enter the fray. But that will be quickly resolved when China's technical and human resources are slewed to the south of their own borders.

幸运的是，由于迅速的战斗管理系统，许多作战行动可能会被启动，而中国人则在他们之间进行适当的反应。因为朝鲜的攻击毫无征兆，中国在早期不会有任何重量级力量进入战场。但是，当中国的技术和人力资源被用于他们自己的边境时，这一问题将很快得到解决。

The "delicate" part: SK and the US have just a few days; maybe even just a few hours, to produce battlefield conditions which make an NK "victory" impossible. That won't be difficult to do as an eventual situation, but it will be a tough nut to crack in just a matter of hours. To keep the Chinese at bay, SK and the US must create an immediate stalemate.
And so, the strategy of SK and the US is one of interdiction, roughly along the territory of the DMZ. Basically, the hordes of NK troops swarm into SK, but are cut off from reinforcement and supply. The DMZ becomes the VMZ (VERY Militarized Zone). Combined arms, together with state of the art surveillance and air borne control "shut the door." The more the NK forces already in the south advance, the weaker and the more vulnerable they become as they confront fresh, well organized, well equipped, well trained, well managed, well supported, and well motivated defenders.

“微妙”的是：韩国和美国只需几天乃至仅仅几个小时，就能使朝鲜的“胜利”变成不可能。作为一个最终的情况，做到这点并不难。但是就是这仅仅几个小时就将是一件棘手的事情。
为了阻止中国人的到来，韩国和美国必须立即稳定住局面。因此，韩国和美国的战略是一种大致是在非军事区的封锁战略。基本上，会有成群结队的朝鲜军队涌入韩国，但随即被切断了运输和补给。非军事区域变成非常军事化区域。这套组合拳再加上先进的监视和空中控制会将朝鲜军队“关上大门”。进入韩国的朝鲜军队越多其武装力量就越越脆弱。 他们面对的是新鲜出炉的、有组织、装备精良、训练有素、管理良好、得到充分支持和激励的捍卫者（韩美联军）。

As the strategic picture unfolds, it will be stunningly clear to everyone in the world that SK has suffered from, and defended against, an invasion. The Chinese (and perhaps the Russians) may issue such rhetoric as they will about "who started it," but the map itself will show the present situation. Eager as the Chinese may be to support their problem child, they will be more eager not to disrupt all those orders from the west for smart phones, cheap computers, designer shoes and knock-offs of Levi jeans.

随着战略图景的展开，世界上每个人都将非常清楚地认识到，韩国已经遭受了侵略并为之进行了防御。中国人(也许是俄国人)可能会发表一些关于“到底是谁首先开始”这样的言论，但地图本身将告诉我们目前是什么情况。尽管中国可能会支持他们的问题儿童，但他们更希望不破坏西方国家对他们智能手机、廉价电脑、名牌鞋和山寨牛仔裤的订单。

In the end, as the warring parties are brought to the table, there will be a restoration of the former boundaries. NK will crow about their punishment of SK and demonstration of their military superiority. SK will dust itself off, and rebuild. China will become much more involved in NK politics, even to the point of establishing a leadership which is more given to a cooperative attitude with the world, at large, and an abandonment of nuclear and missile technology.
The world will be a better and safe place.
But not much.

最后，交战双方被带到谈判桌上时，将会恢复到以前的边界。朝鲜将会对他们的惩韩行动以及他们的军事演戏表示抗议。韩国将会自我尘土飞扬又重建。中国将会更多地参与到朝鲜的政治中，甚至是建立一个与世界更合作以及放弃核武器和导弹技术的国家。世界将是一个更美好、更安全的地方。虽然不是很多。



Bruce Golightly, works at Retirement
Answered Nov 26
North Korea does not currently enjoy the support it had from China and the former Soviet Union that it had in the earlier conflict. Nor can they expect, in teh current political climate, for that to change in the near future, PROVIDED that it is not South Korea that initiates hostilities. since it is unlikely that the ?South WOULD start things, that’s where things stand for now.
At the outset, there would be heavy casualties and considerable destruction in the South. The U.S. and allies have some presence “in country.” They, too, would be hit heavily in the initial rounds of fighting.

朝鲜目前实际上没有如以前那样得到中国和前苏联的支持，他们也期望不上（这种支持）。在当前的政治气候下，他们也不能指望在不久的将来会发生变化，（当然，前提是不发动敌对行动）。如果是南方（韩国）发起敌对行动呢？你保证这些都不会发生吗?韩国会首先开战，就是这么个情况。一开始,南方（韩国）将会有大量的人员伤亡和物资损失。美国和它实际上的一些盟国在最初的几轮战斗中受到严重打击.”

The U.S. has plans in place to reinforce and resupply S. Korea. These plans are regularly practiced on a somewhat limited level, and adjusted to keep them current.
As those plans were activated, the balance would swing in favor of the South.
It would not be a pleasant event. The terrain is brutal and NK has had a long time to prepare. There is always the possibility that China or Russia would decide to get involved again, too.

美国已经制定了加强和再补给的计划。这些计划在一定程度上定期实行并加以调整，以保持这些计划的稳定进行。当这些计划被激活时天平将向南方倾斜，这不会是一件令人愉快的事。地势险恶，而朝鲜需要很长时间作准备。中国或俄罗斯也有可能再次牵涉进来。

That’s the basic scenario for a conventional arms conflict.
If things go nuclear, all bets are off. Current policy dictates that the U.S. will not employ nuclear arms unless involved on the receiving end of a nuclear attack. If there is a nuclear strike, it is assumed at this time that it would be initiated by N. Korea. At that point, the U.S. would have the option of responding in kind.
Information available to civilians suggests that N. Korea has a very limited nuclear capability. They do not, according to that information, have the capacity to wage a “real” nuclear war. They’d get hammered pretty hard in retaliation, though.

这还只是爆发传统冲突的情况。如果事情发展到核武器，所有的赌注都将变得毫无价值。目前的政策规定，除非参与核攻击，否则美国将不会动用核武器。如果出现核打击事件，那就假定它将由朝鲜发起。在这一点上，美国将有选择的余地。 
.向公众公布的信息表明，朝鲜拥有的核能力非常有限。根据这些信息，他们并没有能力发动一场“真正的”核战争，所以很难对他们进行报复。

Should a nuclear exchange take place, the risks of the conflict escalating increase horribly. Both China and Russia would be, justifiably, I think, greatly concerned about somebody tossing nukes around in their back yard.
The aftermath, even if China and Russia stay out of it, would be pretty awful.

如果爆发核战，冲突的风险就会加剧。我认为中国和俄罗斯都有理由担心有人在他们的后院乱扔核武器。因为一旦出现这种后果，即使中国和俄罗斯置身事外，情况也会变得相当糟糕。

Paul Conway, Retired software developer, SF/tech fan, awestruck by life
Answered Oct 1, 2016
I would hope that China has already made NK aware of what will happen to it if it is so stupid as to start a war, ie no more Mr Kim, no more Pyongyang.
On the other hand, Kim’s latest thing is his moonshot plan, which is so obviously a way to divert attention from early work on ICBM technology. I am surprised China has not stomped on this already, or on the underground testing of nukes, and the absence of China asserting itself is not a good sign.

我希望，中国已经让朝鲜意识到如果它愚蠢到发动一场战争它将会发生什么——再也不会有什么金正日，也不会有平壤。另一方面，金正日的最新计划是他的“登月计划”，这显然是一种转移人们对洲际弹道导弹技术早期工作注意力的方式。我感到惊讶的是中国没有在这个问题上或核武器的地下测试中做出让步，并且中国宣称没有自己参与（调解）并不是一个好兆头。

In the next few years, suppose Kim reaches the point at which he can threaten to drop a nuke on SK, Japan, or even a US city. It could become impossible for the US not to pre-empt this. In other words, if China does not restrain Kim, they could end up with a conflict no one wants.
I hope the US has made this abundantly clear to China. NK is China’s problem to resolve, and some day it needs to face up to that fact. The can cannot be kicked down the road indefinitely. The god-king Kim is mortal. There will be yet another succession. Suppose the next one is not orderly?

在接下来的几年里，假设金正日达到了他可以威胁在韩国、日本、甚至是美国城市的核武器临界点。美国不可能不先发制人。换句话说，如果中国不限制金正日，他们最终可能会引发一场没有人想要的冲突。我希望美国已经向中国明确表示了这一点。朝鲜是中国要解决的问题，总有一天它需要面对这一事实。不能无限期地把它往后拖，金神仙也是一阶凡人，他死了还会有另一个人继承他的位置，我们怎么知道下一个是不是守规矩的?