谁能预测一下2019年比特币的价格将会如何？（留下预测，两年后来看） [美国媒体]

What is the bitcoinprice prediction for 2019?

谁能预测一下2019年的比特币价格会如何





1.    Soroush Arghavan, Software engineer, independent thinkerAnswered Nov 6
Any answer that you getwhich actually mentions a number is a personal opinion. No model, prediction oranalysis can predict the price of anything (including bitcoin) two years ahead.Heck, nothing can even predict the price of anything two days ahead. Why? Youcan’t predict the behavior of something based on its historical data. Period.There are far too many variables that affect the price of something and nohuman on earth can predict what happens in the next two years. Yet, anyone whohas some money in bitcoin will tell you that the price will go up. Why? Becauseotherwise they would be a fool to own it themselves if they think it’s goingdown. No one would say anything that makes them a fool.

无论你得到任何的回复，其答案都是不可靠的，那些都不过是他们个人的意见而已。没有模型，没有预测或分析能提前两年预测任何一个东西的价格，这当然包括比特币。不仅如此，他们甚至无法预测两天后的某个东西的价格。为什么呢?你无法基于一个东西的历史数据来对它的未来进行预测。具体到任何一个东西的价格的话，实在是有太多的变量会发生作用。地球上的人类无法预测两年之后会发生什么。当然，那些炒比特币的人会告诉你比特币价格会上涨，为何会这样？因为，如果不是这样的话，他为何会持有比特币呢，这样他岂不是显得很傻？他当然不会让你觉得他很傻啦！

2.    Michael Matsoukas, MMA enthusiast and practitionerAnswered Nov 14
I’ve seen many answerson the subject trying to use mathematical models and simulations to predict theprice of Bitcoin.All these calculation are great… just one issue! If you ranall these models 24 or 12 months ago you would not have been able to predictthe rise of bitcoin becauseThe market does whatever the market wants, it’sunpredictable! Especially when looking a year out.There isn’t enough data forthe models to accurately calculate VAR and especially not 1 year out! I have 17Quants working for me and when we run Monte Carlo simulations for our clientswe can calculate VAR with a 95%+ accuracy in a 24 hour period… that drops tobelow 40% after 5 days.

在这个题目下面，我看到了很多人用数学模型和仿真分析来预测比特币的价格。这些预测看起来都不错，但是，依然还是有问题。假设你依然是使用现在这个模型，用时光穿梭机把你们给送到12个月或者24个月之前。你们绝对无法在那个时候用这个模型预测到现在的价格，因为市场本身的发展是没有定势的，市场是无法预测的。尤其是你把时间拉长到一年或者是更长的时间来看的话。想要对某个东西的价格进行预测，我们没有足够的数据，我们无法去修正那个变量，尤其是超出一年的情况。我有我自己的预测方法，我为我们的客户进行蒙特卡洛（随机过程分析）分析，在24个小时之内，我们的预测的准确率是95%以上，但是，预测五天之后的状况的话，这个模型的准确率就降到了40%以下。

You can run fairlyaccurate simulations for a 24–48 hour time period on well established andunderstood commodities like oil, gas, coal, gold etc because we have lots andlots of historical data and they have gone through every type of economic,political situation… that data doesn’t exist with bitcoin, it’s new territory sono one really knows what’s going to happen. If someone tells you that they knowwhat’s going to happen to Bitcoin it’s probably because they’re in some wayinvested in it and what to see it do well!So to answer you question, right nowyour guess is as good of as any analyst’s!

如果是24个小时或者是48个小时的话，我们能建立准确度非常高的分析模型，这主要包括石油，天然气，煤炭，黄金等等。因为针对这些商品，我们拥有着足够多的数据来使用，我们有不同的政治及经济形势下的实物商品的价格变动记录。但是，针对比特币的话，我们没有这样的历史数据，这是一个全新的领域，所以，没有人能够真的知道会发生什么。如果某人告诉你他知道比特币的价格，很大的可能性是这个人投资了比特币，他希望比特币能够有好的表现。所以，我要回答你的问题了，你可以做得像那些专业的分析师一样的好。

3.    Masrur Ahmed, worked at YouTubeUpdated Nov 12
It will either go up to$10,000 by mid-year..Or something will cause it to crash.Government policy, atrading service shutting down or bring hacked, stolen coins, new taxes, and theend of easy ICO's can all decide if and how hard it will crash. The thing is,people like me will hold through the crash and prevent the price fromplummeting sub-$2000. Also, many are waiting for a dip just so they can pourmoney into Bitcoin.It's just too good a deal. Bitcoin has survived throughevery crash…and will come back. As far as I'm concerned, the only thingpreventing it from spreading is how hard it is to use and the overallcomplexity of it. The crypto-currency that figures out how to simplify theentire transaction process, will probably be Bitcoin.But, that's just my 2cents.Cheers!

到本年年中的时候，可能会到达10000美元，或者，比特币也可能变成一个垃圾。政府的政策，交易所被黑客黑了，比特币被偷，新的税收政策，简单的ico （比特币众筹项目）的终结可能就会导致其崩溃。问题是，像我这样的人会在比特币暴跌的时候进行防守，这样会阻止其价格跌破2000美元。当然，很多人都在等待下跌，这样的话，比特币就能够跌到他们心目中的价位了。他们就可以把资金投入进去。听起来，这实在是个不错的买卖。比特币已经经历过好几次的崩溃了，每一次，他都又活过来了。正如我所担心的那样，影响比特币普及的一个重要因素是其支付非常麻烦，以及他本身很复杂。加密货币给我们提供了一个精简交易流程的一个范例，这个媒介或许就是比特币。但是，我买比特币的时候，他还只是两分钱，所以，干杯吧！！！

4.    E. Christian Trejo, Investor at CryptocurrenciesAnswered Nov 8
Guys! This is not theforecast weather.If you search on Quora “bitcoin price prediction” you willfind plenty of questions and even more answers about it.It’s exhausting to readthe same question over and over. No one really knows. But I can tell you forsure is going to be way higher than how it is right now.If you want to investjust do it, stop procrastinating and excusing your inaction with this kind ofquestions.Good luck!

孩纸，这不是天气预报！如果你在quora 搜索你的问题的话，你会搜索到很多类似的问题和答案，类似的问答看得人审美疲劳。没有人真的知道这个问题的答案，但我可以肯定的说，会比现在的价格高得多。如果你想要去投资的话，停止你的预测，少问这些无聊的问题，付诸行动吧。祝你好运

5.    Bert Brijs, Managing Partner at Lingua Franca Consulting(1989-present)Answered Nov 8
My advice, if you hatecasinos but like to gamble: “invest” money you don’t need in bitcoins. If“regular” currencies are already unpredictable because of political influenceon central banks, exogenous shocks like OrangeMan and Rocketman then this thingis way beyond predictablity. Don’t let any fancymath model fool you, at best they give valid predictions for one week. But hey,don’t heed my advice, it’s your hard earned savings or a trip to Machu Pichuyou’re sacrificing for an algorithm.

我的建议是这样的，如果你讨厌娱乐场，但是喜欢赌博，那么在不影响你的生活水平的情况下，可以将你的钱投入进去。如果货币因为中央银行政策的控制而变得不可捉摸，那么这就变成完全无法预测的了。不要被任何的数学模型所蛊惑，你如果这样做的话，最好的结果大概也就是得到无效的建议，最坏的结果就很难说了。当然，不要对我说的东西过分在意。钱是你自己辛苦赚来的，这可能是你的旅游基金，不要为了这样的一个计算机创造出来的货币而冒大风险，这不值得。

6.    Shiv Kumar, SEO Executive (2017-present)Answered Nov 7
For 2019 it may increaseor go downhill but these days it is increasing at a rapid speed. People arewaiting for the November fork to see what willhappen to bitcoin. Currently 1Bitcoin = 7098.11 US Dollar and that’s a hugeamount. It’s increasing day by day that’s why people are more interesting inbitcoin and even in bitcoin investments. Companies which mine bitcoins givesyou great offers.

到2019年的时候，比特币可能涨了很多，当然也可能跌落下来。但是，最近一段时间，比特币确实涨幅巨大。2017年11月份的时候，比特币会出现新的行情，到时候再看看具体情况如何发展吧。现在的话，一个比特币的价格是7098美元，这实在是一个很惊人的数字。比特币的价格最近一直在上涨，这就是为何人们对比特币越来越感兴趣的原因。那些比特币挖矿的公司会给你很多的优惠。

7.    Bill Koutsoubas, studied Law at Democritus University of ThraceAnswered Nov 7（预测日期，2017年11月7日）
Interesting question ,the thing is that we can not know for sure but judging by the way its headed iwould say close to 25 grand its one .I know it might sound a lot but itactually isn’t . Let me make a prediction and time will judge whether i amright or wrong . In the coming year(s) , there will be a war against bitcoin ,mostly from governments since it is something they can not control , thereforea slight drop might occur . But after the leaders of the free world understandthat cryptocurrency and especially bitcoin is for the moment something that cannot be tampered with , they will fall in line and use it to its maximumpotential , so all the policies , laws and previous bans that will exist whenthey try to take it down will soon be gone leaving the way open for a soon tobe ever-growing cryptocurrency fueled economy . C’est la vie ,as the french say …

这是一个很有意思的问题，关键是我们无法提前预知这个东西的价格。按我的估计，会达到25000美元一个比特币的价格。我知道，听了这个数字，你可能会觉得这实在是太离谱了，然而，事实并非如此。让我来预测一下，时间将会证明我是对还是错。在接下来的一年里，将会有一场针对比特币的战争，这主要是由政府发动的，因为政府无法控制比特币，因此，政府打击下，比特币出现下跌是有可能的。但是，当这些自由世界的领导人发现，这些加密货币完全无法被驯服的时候，他们将不得不屈服，接下来他们会尽量的从比特币身上挖掘潜力，所以，所有的警察，法院以及其它的制定的限制比特币的法律将会被撤销，然后，比特币将会成为一个逐渐成长的一个加密货币。正如法国的谚语所言——这TMD就是人生啊。

8.    Tejpal Kargwal, Cryptocurrency Investor, crypto portfolio managementAnswered Nov 9
What makes goldvaluable? because Gold is very rare element.Why USD is valuable ? because ithas real world value , I can buy stuff with it.Why Bitcoin is valuable? becauseBitcoin has real world use and its limited quantity.Do you know there are only17 Millions Bitcoins are in circulation, which can be maximum to 22 millions.Bitcoin adoption is increasing day by day.Japan has declare Bitcoin a legaltender, Bitcoin is widely accepted in Japan.Vietnam university accepts tuitionfees in Bitcoin.You can buy real state property in England using Bitcoin. Somecountries are offering their citizenship for Bitcoin.And the list is long, mypoint is Bitcoin is accepted widely. And there are only a very very very smallpercentage of people are invested in Bitcoin. Only 22 million people can haveone single Bitcoin. As the Bitcoin usage increases and people start tounderstand that this is not a scam or any pyramid scheme more people willinvest in it and price will increase.Most of the TA, DA or chart analysis areuseless in crypto world. my prediction is Bitcoin will rise to atleast$20,000–25,000 in end of 2018 and above $50,000 in 2019.

为什么黄金值钱？因为黄金是稀有元素。为何美元值钱？因为美元在真实世界中可以被赋予购买力，我们可以用美元来买我们想要的东西。为何比特币有价值？因为比特币能够在真实的世界中使用，而且他的数量有限。你们知道吗，现在流通中的比特币只有1700万个，比特币的最大的数量是2200万个。比特币的使用范围日渐扩大。日本已经宣布比特币是合法的货币了，比特币在日本被广泛的使用。越南的大学也开始接受比特币作为学费来进行缴纳。在英国，你能用比特币购买到实物资产。一些国家正在为比特币提供身份证，使用比特币的国家和地区正在增长，我的看法是比特币正在被广泛的接受。但是，事实上，只有非常，非常，非常少比例的人投资比特币。每人持有一个比特币的话，最多只能有2200万人参与这个投资（投机）中来。比特币的使用范围越来越广，人民开始明白这不是一个骗局，也不是一个金字塔式的传销。越来越多的人会投入进来，比特币的价格将会上涨。大多数的对于加密货币的投资分析都是不靠谱的。我的看法是，在2018年年末的时候，每个比特币至少能达到20000-25000美元的价格，到2019年的时候，将会达到50000美元。

9.    Daniel Chvatik, Harvard Economics, Harvard Business School, startedand advised several startups（丹尼尔.赫瓦季克，哈佛大学商学院，已经开始从事商业咨询）Answered Nov 10
Most likely somethingclose to $0 per BitCoin:
The bitcoin bubble

到2019年的时候，比特币极大可能性会变得一文不值，可以参考如下的文章————比特币泡沫。

10.        Aakash Sonkusare, MCA fromSavitribai Phule Pune University (2018)Answered Nov 29
Bitcoin started thisyear with $ 1000.The unit has soared more than 900 per cent in 2017 so far amidincreased institutional demand for crypto-currencies and expected to reach $40000 in next one year.
Data available withGoogle Trends shows people around the world are searching ‘buy bitcoin withcredit card’ with Nigeria and St Helena being among top searchers for thesewords.
It is followed by UnitedStates, Canada and South Africa. India holds 15th position on that list. Extraordinaryreturns given by the crypto-currency this calendar year has made it the talk ofthe town and people are busy opening accounts to deal in bitcoin.One shouldalso note that bitcoin cannot be purchased through credit card in India, thoughit is possible to do so in select countries around the world.

年初的时候，比特币只是值1000美元，2017年的时候，比特币已经涨了900%了，由于各类机构对加密货币的需求不断的提高，2018年比特币将能够上涨到40000美元。谷歌的搜索资料显示全世界的人都在搜索“如何用信用卡购买比特币”，在尼日利亚和圣赫勒拿岛，这个搜索更是攀到了首位。美国紧随其后，加拿大和南非也是如此。印度在这个排名里面排名第15.今年以来，加密货币比特币给投机者带来了非凡的回报，这使得比特币成为人们谈论的话题，很多人开始开设比特币的账户，目的就是为了能够交易比特币。人们注意到一个情况，在印度，不能用信用卡来购买比特币，但是在世界的很多其它的地方，却可以这样做。

11.        Glen Walters, former Reftired(1955-2003)Answered Nov 14
Jeffrey Robinson hasmade a name for himself investigating fraud on the grandest scales.His books oninternational money laundering and the pharmaceutical industry pulled back thecurtain on the nefarious behavior of some in the banking and pharmaceuticalsindustries. Now, he is turning his attention to bitcoin, with a new polemiccalled Bit Con: The Naked Truth About Bitcoin. Ofcourse, unlike the schemes of felonious bankers, bitcoin—the technology and thecurrency—wasn't conceived as a malicious scam. But Robinson is convinced thatwhen all is said and done, it will become the vehicle for hucksters to trickboth innocents and bitcoin's ideological backers out of millions.

杰弗里.罗宾逊（世界知名畅销书作家，有组织犯罪和诈骗罪案专家），他写了有关于国际洗钱和制药行业的书籍，这些书揭露了银行业和医药产业的黑幕。现在，他把他的注意力转向了比特币，他写了一本书《有关于比特币的赤裸裸的现实》。当然，比特币看起来温情脉脉，不像那些贪婪可恶的银行家，比特币的技术和货币被看成是一个恶意的骗局。但罗宾逊相信，当一切布局完成之后，他将变成小商人的工具，这个工具会欺骗那些无辜的人以及那些比特币的信仰者。

Fortune spoke withRobinson about the year he spent researching bitcoin and why he thinks thecurrency will ultimately dissolve into worthlessness. The interview has beenedited for length and clarity. Fortune: What drew your interest to bitcoin?
Robinson: About twoyears ago, given the books I've written about money laundering, people kepttelling me that bitcoin was the next big thing in money laundering. So Ithought I really should find out about it, and I looked at everything that wasbeing said, and none of it added up. Actually, it's not good for moneylaundering to start, but it's also not what it claims to be in other ways. It'snot a real currency and it's not a real commodity. When you heard the hypecoming from the community, and ... that people were spending money on thisstuff, they needed to know the truth.

《财富》杂志采访了罗宾逊，他提到了他的研究结果，并解释了为何他认为比特币最终将会变得一文不值。如下是采访的部分情况。
《财富杂志》：是什么吸引你到比特币的研究当中来的呢？
罗宾逊：大约两年前，那个时候我已经写了关于洗钱犯罪的书，从那个时候开始，不断有人跟我说比特币是下一个洗钱的重灾区。所以，我觉得我应该好好的调查一下这个东西了。我收集了各种各样的有关于比特币的说法，几乎收集完全了。事实上，比特币并不适合洗钱，但是，其它的宣传比特币的用途的领域也有问题。比特币不是真正的货币，也不是真正的商品。当然，从开源社区，你会听到很多的有关于比特币的宣传。那些人正在花费大量的金钱在比特币上面，事实上，我认为他们应该认真对待比特币的泡沫！

Fortune: Your career hasbeen spent writing about various frauds and cons. If bitcoin is a con, who isthe con man?
Robinson: It's a con inthat it's not a real currency, but let me back up. There are actually twobitcoins. There's the blockchain-technology bitcoin, which I think isfantastic, and the future, and all sorts of businesses are investing tens orhundreds of millions of dollars in Silicon Valley and around the world to buildbusinesses on the back of the blockchain technology because it's so wonderfuland can move assets frictionlessly. 
But then there is thisaspect of the pretend currency and the pretend commodity. Part of the con is inthe pretend commodity, because this is a completely shallow. When you know thatthere's, what, 13 million coins in circulation, and more than 50% of the themare owned and managed by about 950 people, you realize how shallow the marketit is and how subject the market is to manipulation.

《财富》杂志：在你的职业生涯里面，你一直在写各种各样有关于骗术的书，如果比特币是骗局的话，那么藏镜人是谁呢？
罗宾逊：比特币的最大的骗局的核心就是——它不是真正的货币！让我们回顾一下历史。事实上，有两种比特币。其中之一是区块链，我称其为技术比特币。这个东西，我认为纯粹是一个幻想。未来，在硅谷，会有各种各样的商业投资机构投入大笔的钱来发展这个东西，发展区块链技术，因为这是一个很好的技术，能够方便的进行资产转移。
然而，这就是这个问题的核心，比特币是一种伪商品，伪货币。比特币伪装成商品，这是一个完全灰色的领域。市场上只有1300万个比特币在流动，50%的比特币被其中950个人所掌控，你就知道这个市场是多么的扭曲，市场是多么的容易受到控制。

It's essentially a pumpand dump scam. And then I see these snake oil salesmen like the Winklevosstwins get on TV and tell people that bitcoin is going to be worth $40,000 percoin. And nobody is challenging them, asking, "What are you smoking?"Bitcoin isn't an investment, it's a slot machine. Or, more accurately, a loadedroulette wheel.
But it's not a classicpump and dump because there is a base of ideological support for bitcoin. Atthe very least, there is a motivated group of people who want bitcoin tosucceed, and aren't just speculating.

这本质上就是一个哄抬价格，然后甩币赚钱的一个阴谋。我看到了很多的“蛇油”推销商人，比如温克莱沃斯兄弟在电视上告诉人们比特币将会涨到40000美元。我就奇了怪了，为什么没有人问“你这是什么意思”？比特币不是一个投资品，而是一个抢劫的机器。或者，更准确的说——比特币是一个加码的轮盘赌。但是，比特币不是传统的炒作游戏，因为，对于比特币而言，有一种叫做“信仰”的东西在支撑。你们知道吗？真的有一群人，一个社区，他们期待比特币能够成功，这些人并不仅仅是因为投机的因素。

Right, there is thelibertarian faction that drives the support for bitcoin. For example, JonMatonis of the Bitcoin Foundation has suggested that bitcoin is signaling thestart of a post-legal-tender era. Where? In what country? It's not accepted aslegal currency anywhere on the planet. There's not a legitimate economist ofany note on the planet that thinks it's a real currency. The anarchist,libertarian wing of the bitcoin party tend to believe in Austrian economics,but the three most prominent descendants of [Austrian economists Ludwig von]Mises and [Friedrich] Hayek, say it's not currency. So while the mostenthusiastic supporters of bitcoin say Austrian economics matters, actualAustrian economists say that bitcoin doesn't matter.Furthermore, these peopleare very attached to the concept of decentralization as a matter of ideology.But I would guess if you walk down the street and ask 100 people if they careabout decentralization, they'd say, "What are you talking about?" Theideologues say it should matter, that you don't want the government orcorporations in the middle. 

没错，自由派是比特币的忠实铁粉。比如约翰.马托尼斯，比特币基金的创始人，他认为比特币是“后法币时代”的黎明曙光。我就奇了怪了，比特币在哪里成了法币了？哪个国家？在这个星球上，没有任何国家将比特币认作是合法的货币。也没有任何一个专业的经济学家将比特币看成是真正的货币。无政府主义者，比特币自由派倾向于相信奥地利学派经济学，但是，奥地利学派最杰出的三位经济学家，包括路德维格，米泽斯以及哈耶克，他们都说比特币不是货币。所以，当比特币的信奉者高举奥地利学派的大旗的时候，奥地利学派的学者却告诉人们说比特币什么都不是。进一步的说，这些人是被“去中心化”这个美妙的概念给吸引住了，这是一种意识形态一样顽固的东西。我猜测，如果你走上街头，然后问100个人他们是否真的在意“去中心化”，他们会奇怪的问你“你在说啥咧？”但是，“去中心化”的粉丝认为这个东西非常重要，他们不想要政府或者是公司在这中间存在。

But what evidence isthere that anybody besides a small, small group of people care about this kindof stuff?Do you think someone like Marc Andreessen, who has been a vocal publicadvocate for bitcoin, is acting in bad faith?I think Andreessen is not terriblyinterested in the currency. He has no interest at all in the delusional wing.He says that he's interested in practical solutions to real problems. But it'snot as if Andreessen is taking your position, which is that bitcoin is aterrible currency but an interesting technology.People believe you cannotseparate the two. Of course you can. There are businesses that are trying touse blockchain technology to create smart contracts, the idea of puttingcopyrights on the blockchain: suddenly there's an irrefutable copyrightworldwide. 

但是，除了一个小团体的一小撮人，有几个人真的认为这个东西非常重要呢？你们认为有几个人喜欢马克·安德森，他一直是比特币的公开的倡导者，他是出于恶意吗？我认为安德森并不是真的关心货币，他一点都不神经质。他说他其实只是对解决具体的问题比较感兴趣。安德森说这些东西并不是代表他认为你们这些比特币的信仰者的立场是对的，他并不真的认可这是一个货币，他只是对这种技术非常的感兴趣。当然，可能一般人也不太能够把这两者区别开来。但是，有些人可以做到这一点。有很多的商业公司正在使用区块链的技术来创建“智能合同”，其想法是将版权放在区块链上，然后，突然间，全世界所有人便同时拥有了这个东西的版权。

And with the speed oftechnology, we really should be expecting not that bitcoin will solve ourproblems, but that bitcoin is a stepping stone to something better. If you talkto people in Silicon Valley, that's how they think, that this is all just aprocess. The blockchain will develop, but bitcoin as a currency is just a stepalong the way. What will be the end game for bitcoin?
Businesses will continueto experiment with the blockchain, proving that that innovation is separablefrom the bitcoin the currency. At the same time, there's all these people outthere who bought into bitcoin as a tinker toy, thinking they might make somemoney on it. Maybe they bought $100 when it was worth $10 bucks a coin, and nowthey're sitting on $4,000. Many of them will treat themselves to a vacation ora new computer with their bitcoins, and they don't buy back in. There's noevidence that people who spend down their wallets buy back in. Little by littleit will just atrophy, because nobody is really using it. The big kids will getout, and the little guy sitting on one, two, or, sadly, many more bitcoins willlose it all.

随着技术的进步，我们不能指望比特币能解决什么问题，但是，比特币本身是一个阶梯，一块垫脚石，它可以让我们从中学到一点东西，然后将这些知识用在其它的领域，最后能够为我们所有人带来利益。如果你与硅谷的人聊天的话，那么他们的想法大概就是这个样子的。这就是他们的思考方式，这只是一小步。区块链技术将会继续发展，但是，比特币作为货币只不过是区块链技术进步中的一个垫脚石。
《财富》杂志：那您认为，接下来，比特币游戏将会以什么样的方式终结呢？
罗宾逊：我认为在商业上，区块链技术将会继续发展。这些尝试将会证明，区块链技术和比特币本身是可以被分开的。同时，有很多购买比特币的人，他们指望能从这个东西上面赚钱。他们可能是用1美元买了一枚值100美元的比特币，现在，比特币的价格依然是在4000美元之上。他们中的一些人会好好的用比特币赚来的钱来犒劳自己，可能会去度假，或者是买新的电脑，用的就是从比特币里面赚来的钱，卖掉这些比特币之后，他们就不会再购买回来了。没有证据证明那些将比特币卖出的人会再将他们买回来，然后，慢慢的，比特币市场会开始萎缩，因为，没有人真的是使用比特币的。大的玩家会离开这个市场，然后剩下小猫两三只，守着他们的比特币。更糟糕的情况是，他们可能会一无所有。