【神三系列】印度能否在战争时期轻易切断中国的石油供应？ [美国媒体]

Can India easily cut off China's oil supply in times of war?

【神三系列】印度能否在战争时期轻易切断中国的石油供应？





James Shannon, United States Navy 美国海军
There are a lot of biased answers given on this question, solely based on national pride it would seem. And they aren’t necessarily bad answers, they just aren’t realistic or rational.

在这个问题上有很多有偏见的答案, 这完全是基于民族自豪感。它们不一定是不好的答案，只是不现实或不理性

So if the stakes are that India needs to cut off China’s oil, than that means India and China are in an all out unconditional conflict.

因此，如果有利害关系，印度需要切断中国的石油供应，那就意味着印度和中国陷入了无限制的冲突之中。

For China, if anyone cuts off the supply of oil, than that is a clear & present danger to their national security. In turn every asset at China’s disposal will be on the table. The simple math here, is China has more assets. In a strategic conflict, as opposed to a regional one, India has little chance against China.

对中国来说, 如果有人切断石油供应, 那么这对他们的国家安全而言是一个明显的威胁。反过来，中国可支配的每一项优势都将摆在台面上，这是个简单的数学问题：中国拥有更多的优势。与地区冲突相反, 在一场战略冲突中, 印度几乎没有机会与抗衡中国。

    For India to attack China’s supply lines, it would need to attack the assets of other nations, including US and UK flagged vessels. That isnt going to happen. So therefore India cannot effectively cut off China’s oil. 

为了打击中国的供应线, 印度就必须攻击其它国家的资产, 包括悬挂美国和英国国旗的船只，这是不可能的。因此, 印度无法切断中国的石油供应。

    Even if India could effectively cut off China’s Persian Gulf supply, guess who has a ready supply of both crude oil and refined petroleum products? The US, Canada and South America, all of which India has no hope of cutting off from China. 

即使印度能够有效地切断中国在波斯湾的石油供应，猜猜谁有现成的原油和精炼石油产品供应? 美国、加拿大和南美，印度没法切断这些国家与中国的联系。

This idea that India has a superb fleet is a bit overstated. The ability of the Indian Navy to project power in a ‘sea control’ capacity far from its shores is extremely limited. Admittedly the PLAN’s ability in this arena is just as limited but that is not the point of the matter. 

印度拥有一支出色的舰队，这一想法有些夸大。印度海军在远离海岸的“海上控制”能力方面的能力极其有限。诚然，该计划在这一领域的能力同样有限，但这不是问题的重点。

It is not a matter of a pure technology matchup. Even if India is more ahead of the curve in research, development and operational experience, one has to incorporate geopolitics into the realistic assessment. There is no way that India will defeat China in a strategic full blown nightmare scenario. China has more manpower, more platforms and more options to consider when escalated.

这不是一个纯技术匹配的问题。即使印度在研究、发展和运营经验方面更为领先, 人们也必须将地缘政治纳入现实的评估中。中国有更多的人力、更多的平台和更多的选择可以考虑升级。

这不是一个纯粹技术竞赛的问题。即使印度在研究、发展和运营经验方面走在了前面，也必须将地缘政治纳入现实评估。印度绝不可能在一场噩梦般的全面战略性对抗中击败中国。冲突升级后，中国有更多的人力，更多的平台供选择。

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回复部分：

Mike Wu
True. Singapore which is located at the end of the Straits of Malacca is also one of the biggest oil refinery in the world
China is also a big customer for refined products. China also supplies an incredible amount of finished goods to the world.
Cutting off China’s oil or supply without hurting other countries is simply unrealistic.

确实。新加坡位于马六甲海峡的尽头，也是世界上最大的炼油国之一。
中国是成品油的大客户，中国还向世界提供了数量惊人的制成品。
在不损害其他国家的情况下切断中国的石油或供应是不现实的。

Sabapathy Thiru
In the current global scenario, every country knows going to war is dangerous to economy not only to conflicting countries but to most. You would have noted that Greece having economic issue couple of years back made the whole global economy shake. Just imaging, India and China both big economic giants going to war would mean, the entire world economy will not just shake but sink.
So, we should not even dream of war. Yes, we could have a bit of skirmish or proxy war, some stand-offs, etc. Thats about it.

在当前的全球形势下，每个国家都知道，开战不仅对冲突国家，而且对大多数国家都是危险的。你可能会注意到，几年前希腊的经济问题使整个全球经济发生了动荡。想象一下，印度和中国这两个大的经济大国将要开战，这意味着整个世界经济不仅会动摇，而且会下落。
所以，我们甚至不应该向往战争。是的，我们可能会有一些小冲突或代理战争，一些对峙，等等，就这样吧。

Roopesh
it is not that easy to do something that drastic unless the entire world is at war. i,e any world war cannot exclude nuclear war so the existence of entire living race is at stake. World is now multi polar i,e as a old saying goes in politics there are no real friends nor real enemies that is really applicable at global stage right now. who knows China might become a very close ally of India in the Future(As the need suppress all the differences between the two sides and when both the countries understand that it is not worth to fight each other over trivial issues)

除非整个世界都处于战争之中，否则做这么激烈的事情并不容易。任何世界性大战都不能排除核战争，整个种族的存在都会处于危险之中。世界现在是多极化的，正如一句老话所说，在政治上，没有真正的朋友，也没有真正的敌人，这句话真正适用于现在的全球舞台。谁知道呢，也许有一天中国会成为印度的亲密盟友(需要压制双方的所有分歧，而且两国都明白，在琐碎的问题上互相争斗是不值得的)

Dehua Liu
those indian only think they navy can cut off malaca, but they always forget their capital is only about 300km away from China, while Beijing is at least 1500km away from them. In war time, you do whatever you can to win a war

这些印度人只想着他们的海军可以切断马六甲，但他们总是忘记他们的首都离中国只有300公里，而北京距离他们至少1500公里。在战争时期，你会尽一切可能去赢得一场战争。

Bharat Nadhani
Ostensibly: India needs more number of modern assets and support from USA - Nato .

表面上说：印度需要更多的现代资产并获得来自美国-北约的支持。

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Mukil Rangarajan  （印度人）

Can India blockade the Malacca straits?

印度能封锁马六甲海峡吗？

Sure it can! With its advanced navy, it can blockade the Malacca straits and choke China of its oil supplies from its African reserve and base. This is a strategy propounded by many defense experts and is a major argument made by those supporting increased funding to the Navy instead of raising mountain corps to stall China in the Himalayas.

当然可以！凭借先进的海军，它可以封锁马六甲海峡，并将中国的石油供应从非洲的储备和基地中掐死。这是许多国防专家提出的战略, 也是那些支持增加海军经费，而不在喜马拉雅山脉中增加军队的人的主要论点。

There are experts who argue that with the US’ help, we could simply starve China of oil supplies and there is no need for increased funding to the Army, at least, with regards to China.

有专家辩道, 在美国的帮助下, 我们可能只会让中国缺乏石油供应, 也没有必要增加军费开支, 至少对中国来说是这样。

But the major problems with the view are:

但这种观点的主要问题是:

It assumes that China gets its oil only through the Indian Ocean. With its increased connectivity to Europe through OBOR infrastructural projects, it has other options (now significantly cheaper due to lower transportation costs) to get its oil. 

它假设中国只能通过印度洋获得石油。由于通过一带一路（ OBOR） 基础设施项目增加了与欧洲的联系, 它还有其他选择(由于运输成本降低，现在的费用明显降低了)以获得石油

China has a strategic oil reserve to ensure survival in case of market disruptions. This, along with Point 1 ensure that it will take a long time to starve China out. 

中国拥有战略石油储备, 以确保在市场动荡时能够生存下去。这一点, 以及第一点确保中国需要很长时间石油供应才会被断绝。

Therefore, those who support the government’s recent moves to fund new mountain strike corps say that it will take India a long time to starve China (probably forever). Therefore, it is much better to improve the Army as they can achieve tactical victory and strategic gains in a much shorter span of time.

因此，那些最近支持印度政府为新的山地部队提供资金的人说，印度需要很长时间(可能是永远)才能断绝中国的石油供应。因此，改进军队是更好的办法，因为他们可以在更短的时间内取得战术胜利和战略利益。

I’ve gotten much of my information from here: Can India Blockade China?

我从这里得到了很多信息：   印度能否封锁中国？【一个链接】

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回复部分：

Gary Soh
of course, all this assumes that such actions won’t start nuclear war and end human civilization

当然，以上所有，都假定为这些行动不会引发核战争，也不会终结人类文明

Vijay Shivdasani
I disagree with Mr Rangarajan. A blockade of the Mallaca choke point is very much in line with military strategies. The distance between Indira Point and Sumatra (Indonesia) is barely 70 nm. Historically it has been shown a blockade will greatly damage a nation’s war effort and economy. The Chinese will be hard put with extended lines of communications, to defend its position here. Developing friendly regional allies such as Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Myanmar Philippines Bangladesh Indonesia apart from Japan, Australia is an important aspect of this strategy

我不同意Rangarajan（答主）的观点。对马六甲的封锁与军事战略的紧密相关。英迪拉角和苏门答腊(印度尼西亚)之间的距离仅70海里。从历史上看，封锁将极大地破坏一个国家的战争效应和经济。中国将很难与扩大的沟通渠道联系在一起，来维护自己的地位。发展友好的地区盟友，如马来西亚、新加坡、越南、缅甸、菲律宾、印度尼西亚、日本、澳大利亚等，都是这一战略的重要组成部分。

Mukil Rangarajan（答主）
Sure, but I was presenting the arguments for and against the plan. The blockade can be part of the war effort, but it cannot be a standalone move as if it was and we didn’t raise sufficient mountain corps and infrastructure, the Chinese can easily overwhelm our Himalayan defenses in retaliation.

当然，但我提出了赞成和反对这个计划的论据。封锁可能是战争效应的一部分，但它不可能是一个独立的举动，我们没有建立足够的山地部队和基础设施，中国可以轻易地击垮我们的喜马拉雅防御，以示报复。

Vijay Shivdasani
There does not have to be a war to impose a blockade! pls note what is happening in Qatar!
I recall a chat with a General from the British army on the Rhine in the heyday of the Soviet Union. I jokingly told him should there be an attack the British Army would be on-the-run (not on the Rhine!) he agreed with me and said—”Yes you are absolutely right we would run like hell till we regroup and attack them from 3 sides. This is a pretty common strategem!”
Secondly a defensive force can impose a greater amount of casualty on the aggressor. Pls remember that once lines of communications are stretched an attacking force is more vulnerable. You may like to note what happened in the Himalayan area in 1967 and 1987 forget 1962!

没有必要进行一场战争来实施封锁! 请注意在卡塔尔发生了什么!
我记得在苏联的鼎盛时期，在莱茵河上我与一名英国将军进行了交谈。我开玩笑地告诉他，英国军队应该会有一次进攻(不是在莱茵河上)，他同意我的观点，说:“是的，你说得很对，我们会亡命一样跑，直到我们重新集结，从三面攻击他们,这是一个相当常见的策略!”
第二，防御力量可以对侵略者施加更大的伤亡。请记住，一旦通信线路被拉长，攻击的力量就会更加脆弱。你可能会想知道1967年和1987年在喜马拉雅地区发生的事情，1962年就别提了!

Sitaram Dhaniwal
Russians are rich in oil and natural gas may supply through their Asian terminals. Recent Essar Refinery buy out by Russian may sell petroleum products to any country including China and Pakistan and may cause to India agony.

俄罗斯人拥有丰富的石油和天然气，他们可以通过亚洲的终端供应天然气。最近由俄罗斯公司购买的爱萨炼油厂可能会向包括中国和巴基斯坦在内的任何国家出售石油产品，这可能会给印度带来伤害。

Dehua Liu
with indian’s ADVANCED navy,huh?

以印度“先进”的海军,  嗯？

Orz Chin 【。。。这段不用翻】
把你们的高贵的婆罗门女人 刹帝利女人供应给美国大兵去，不用你们封锁，美国就直接封锁中国了。

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Min Yan, PhD from University of Chicago   芝加哥大学phD

I only talk about technicality, although politically it is also impossible. Take a look at the world map. The strait of Malacca is only the most convenient route for the middle eastern oil to reach China. The oil tankers can also go between many Indonesian islands, at the cost of one or two more days of sailing.

我只谈论技术性问题, 就算从政治上讲, 这也是不可能的。看看世界地图。马六甲海峡是中东石油进入中国最方便的途径。 多花费一两天的航行时间，油轮也可以在印度尼西亚的许多岛屿之间航行。

On the other hand, the oil extracted by China alone would be enough for the war purpose. China’s oil production is much bigger than many of the usual “oil producing countries”. See List of countries by oil production.

另一方面, 仅中国开采的石油就足以达到战争目的。中国的石油产量远远大于许多通常的"产油国"。【链接】参见按石油生产分列的国家清单。

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Samrat Bee, On Quora. Searching evidence. Information. Not claims nor faith. Anarchist.    搜寻证据，信息，无宗教信仰， 无政府主义者
India or Indian govt. which is virtually in the lap of US international intervention and politics, cannot do nothing without the permission of it’s (dare i say) Master.

事实上, 印度或印度政府，是在美国的国际干预和政治的范围内，如果没有它的许可(我敢说)， 什么也做不了。

Further, Chinese trade routes for ships and air from it’s various big ports of China - Shanghai, Shenzen, Ningbo etc are mostly directed at Africa, North America and EU - Which are nowhere near Indian maritime naval limits.

此外，中国各大港口——上海、深圳、宁波等——的中国贸易航线主要针对的是非洲、北美和欧盟，离印度海军的海上界限很远。

Lastly consider the military capacity of both nations to figure the possibilities.

最后, 你得先考虑考虑两国的军事能力, 然后再确定有没有这种可能性。