【 Quora 】:阿根廷哪步走错了？ [美国媒体]

Where did Argentina go wrong? They thought they would one day be a world power.

【 Quora 】:阿根廷哪步走错了？





1929. Argentina never properly recovered from the Great Depression in Latin America.
By all accounts, Argentina, with its rich primary resources, was a destination of choice for many European immigrants in the 19th century. It was definitely ahead of the backwaters of Australia. By 1929, Argentina was a wealthy country by world standards.
Following the Wall Street Crash of 1929, the entire world fell into economic depression. Argentina fell prey to the lure of military coup in 1930 and the subsequent Infamous Decade (1930-1943). Core to the political turmoil was a deep loss of trust of civil society, and thus military men see it as their duty in imposing order and create prosperity from their iron will and iron fists.

自1929年起，阿根廷就从未从拉丁美洲的大萧条中恢复过来。
总而言之，拥有丰富重要资源的阿根廷是十九世纪许多欧洲移民的首选目的地。这绝对是在之前死水一般的澳大利亚的优良选择。到1929年，阿根廷是世界标准的富裕国家。
在1929年华尔街崩溃之后，整个世界陷入经济萧条。阿根廷在1930年受到军事政变的诱惑，于是在后来的臭名昭着的十年（1930-1943）中深受其害。政治动荡的核心是公民社会的信任深深丧失，因此军人认为他们的责任和义务，用铁的意志和铁腕创造繁荣。

Out of the mess, Peronism arose as somewhat of an allergic reaction to  foreign influences, real and imagined. Peronism's determinism in remaining a part of the Non-Aligned Movement (third world) meant that literally, the country remained in the third world. Argentina became a battle-ground of force and ideas between the US and USSR, without having enjoyed the benefits of being aligned to either side. 
Post the fall of the USSR, it hoped to quickly catch up economically, and took out large amount of loans during a time of rapid growth. It precipitated to the 1998–2002 Argentine great depression, for which Argentina is still feeling its consequences decades later.

在混乱中，庇隆主义对于外来的影响是有些过敏的反应，有真的有想象的。庇隆主义作为不结盟运动（第三世界）的一部分，意味着此国仍处于第三世界。阿根廷也成为美国和苏联之间力量和思想的战场，却没有享受到任何一方的利益。
在苏联垮台后，又希望在经济高速增长的时候迅速赶上，进行了大量贷款。又引发了1998 - 2002年的阿根廷大萧条，恐怕阿根廷几十年后仍然遭受其后果。

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Because when our GDP was on par with the US and in France people used the phrase “as rich as Argentine”, our political and rich elites decided to not hop on the industrialist train.
Many people will say Perón and populism. Other will say liberalism and extreme right-wings from the US. Both are right and wrong, both did bad to the country in several aspects. Yet, what I said is the reason.

当时，我们的国内生产总值与美国相当，法国人们用“像阿根廷一样富有”这个词，我们的政治和富裕阶层却决定不跳上实业家列车。
许多人会说是庇隆和民粹主义。其他的则会说美国的自由主义和极端的右翼。两者都有对有错，都在几个方面对国家造成不利影响。然而，我这里要说的是原因。

While the United States acquired debt and fomented private enterprises to develop it vast lands, to exploit their resources, to compete, etc, etc, etc, in Argentina, high society decided to just sit and live from agricultural rent. So instead of the state contracting companies to make railroads connecting and populating the country, or issuing bonds to private companies in the country to exploit iron, transform it on steel, manufacture locomotives and lay railways, the government just handed the task over to British and French companies. They could get 15 km of lands to both sides of the railroad in exchange for building it so the ruling class washed its hands from the task.
Why would they naturally not import everything from Europe? Why would they invest in producing steel in Argentina? They laid the tracks in a concentrated network towards Buenos Aires to move the agricultural production to the port. So there was not even population vast stretches of land across the country trading goods, but concentrated populations on farmlands with a network of trains going to Buenos Aires to export.

美国在阿根廷大量租借，煽动民营企业发展大片土地，开发资源，竞争等等，上层社会发现可以从农业租金中坐享其成。因此，政府不是让国家承包公司来连接和组织国家铁路，也不是向国内的私营公司发债以开拓铁路，改造钢铁，制造机车和铺设铁路，而是把工作交给了英国人，法国公司。他们可以在铁路两边得到15公里的土地作为交换，以便统治阶级从任务中交换利益。
这就是为什么他们会从欧洲进口任何东西。他们为什么不会投资在阿根廷生产钢铁。他们通过集中的网络走向布宜诺斯艾利斯，将农业生产转移到港口。因此，全国各地都没有众多的大片土地进行贸易，而是集中在农田上，旁边有一列列火车通往布宜诺斯艾利斯港口。

That was what went wrong with Argentina. The country sat on easy money and the rich didn’t expand, they didn’t take the risk on new investments and business, the state didn’t foment new economic activities. We did the opposite the US did. So we reached the 20’s being a gigantic country, full of unexploited resources, with a very low population, living from agriculture and importing all manufactured goods, while the US got Rockefeller, Ford, Carnegie, Edison, etc, etc, etc, taking the US resources and transforming them in money and goods to be exported. We got the Alzaga, the Anchorenas and the Rural Society just growing wheat, corn and cows and governing the country.

那是阿根廷出了什么问题呢？国家坐地起钱，富人没有扩张，没有冒险进行新的投资和创业，国家也没有煽动新的经济活动。我们做了与美国相反的做法。所以我们到了20年代是一个充满未开发资源的大国，人口非常少，以农业为生，需要进口所有制成品，而美国得到洛克菲勒，福特，卡耐基，爱迪生等等，美国的资源和改造他们的货币和商品出口。我们得到了Alzaga，Anchorenas和正在种植小麦，玉米，牛的农村社会的这样国家。

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Argentina was a thriving country, and many other thriving countries have gone through the same upheavals that have been noted above and remained thriving.  
However, I believe Argentina's deep ties to its military history eventually resulted in where it is now, getting by from paycheck to paycheck.  Like many other countries, Argentina's existence depended on it's military.  Unlike other countries that went through the same thing, they never quite managed to keep the military under civilian control.  Instead, the political system largely existed to keep the military in power.

阿根廷是一个蓬勃发展的国家，许多其他蓬勃发展的国家也经历过上述的同样的动荡，也可以保持着蓬勃的发展。
不过，我相信阿根廷与其军事历史的深厚联系最终导致了现在的情况，总在透支将来的执政信誉（月光族政府）。像许多其他国家一样，阿根廷的存在源自于军事。与其他国家不同的是，它们从来没有把军队置于平民的控制之下。相反，政治制度在很大程度上是允许军队的执政。

That would be fine in a country with many external enemies.  Argentina didn't really have any.  Still, military spending kept escalating and eventually overwhelmed the ability of the economy to pay for it.  It largely came to a head after the Falklands War of 1983.  That was supposed to be a quick strike to settle a longstanding dispute.  Argentina believed, not unwisely, that Britain would not intervene and, if it did, they would be at such a disadvantage that they would win a war with Britain anyway.
That is, of course, not what happened.  Despite the Argentinian army and navy having their bases within a few hundred miles of the battle zone and the British having to haul everything thousands of miles, and depsite the Argentinian air force having the advantage of land bases while the British were flying off carriers, the British handed Argentina their lungs on a plate.  

在一个有许多外部敌人的国家，这样会变好。阿根廷真的没有。尽管如此，军费不断升级，并最终压倒了经济支付能力。在1983年的福克兰战争之后，这个问题基本上被人们所认同。这本该是解决长期争端的一个快速的打击。很不明智的，阿根廷相信英国不会介入，如果一开始就认为英国会介入的话，英国会处于不利的地位，阿根廷无论如何都会赢得与英国的战争。
当然，事情没有如此进展。尽管阿根廷陆军和海军的基地位于战区几百英里的范围内，英国人不得不长途跋涉数千英里，阿根廷空军具有土地基础的优势，但英国人从航母上飞下来的，英国人就轻松把阿根廷的肉放在了盘子上。

This absolute disaster had long lasting effects on Argentina.  The military started to lose it's hold on power, and the money they spent on the war had so drained the nation's treasury that recovery was impossible.  Eventually, those rich farmers stopped taking australs for their food and Argentinians in the cities had to sell everything portable they had just to eat.  Most of the material wealth of Argentina can still be found in the pawn shops of Buenos Aires.

这场绝对的灾难对阿根廷有着长期的影响。军队开始失去权力，他们在这场战争中所花的钱已经耗尽了国库，无法恢复。最后，那些富裕的农民不能吃澳洲菜了，城市里的阿根廷人不得不出售他们刚吃的东西。阿根廷的大部分物质财富仍然可以在布宜诺斯艾利斯的当铺找到。

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This is a very simplistic view, and bear in mind: simply my own personal opinion.
I believe that the problem with Argentina lies not only in its ruling class, but on the working class. I feel that Argentineans are always on the lookout for an easy fix to all their woes. So when a politician comes to court them, promising the moon and the stars, they vote him or her into power, become their biggest and blindest fans because of their fervor to believe in everything they were told... and then their candidate leaves power several millions richer while little has improved, they are left astonished.

这是一个非常简单的观点，牢记在心：当然也只是我个人的意见。
我认为，阿根廷的问题不仅在于统治阶级，而且还在于普通人阶级。我觉得阿根廷人总是在寻找一个容易解决所有困难的方法。所以当一个政治家来迎接他们，承诺月亮和星星，他们投票权，成为他们的最大和最盲目的粉丝，因为他们的热情相信他们的一切，然后他们的候选人离开权力时有几百万或更富有，事实却只有一点改善，他们只留下了惊讶。

Argentines also need somebody to vilify, a scape-goat to place all the blame on. Be it the US, the UK, capitalism, the IMF -- or president Macri. If that doesn't work, they create a big distraction to get people riled up (i.e. The Falklands War). But above all, mass hate must be directed towards someone or something.
Also, cannot forget that they --and their heros/favorite politicians and football players-- are always right, never wrong. The fault is always somebody else's.
The day they realize that they are their own worst enemy, is the day that might set them on the right path back to prosperity.

阿根廷也需要一个人去诋毁，把所有的责任都给这个替罪羊。无论是美国，英国，资本主义，IMF还是总统Macri。如果这样做不行的话，它会使人精神错乱，让人们激怒（即马岛战争）。但最重要的是，群众的仇恨必须针对某人或某事。
另外，不能忘记，他们 - 他们的英雄/最喜欢的政治家和足球运动员 - 总是对的，从不错。过错总是别人的错。
他们意识到自己是自己最大的敌人的那一天，正是可以使他们走上繁荣的正确道路的一天。

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Government.
Inflation is a very, very destructive thing. When you have terrible inflation, you aren't able to save money because that money is worth less in the future - so you need to spend it now while it holds value. This makes it very difficult to have class mobility.
Voting is mandatory, also. The majority of voters are poor, and the poor don't want the same things as the middle class, they want what's good for the poor. So, they vote in politicians who give the poor what they want. 
Rinse and repeat, throw in some military coups every twenty years or so, and you have what you see today. Actually, it's suprising they are as advanced as they are today, considering.

政府。
通货膨胀是一个非常非常具有破坏性的事情。 当你的通货膨胀很糟糕时，你将无法存钱，因为这笔钱在未来价值更低 - 所以你现在需要花钱，而它却拥有价值。 这让阶级流动变得非常困难。
投票也是强制性的。 大多数选民都是穷人，穷人不希望和中产阶级一样，穷人希望有好处。 所以，谁许诺穷人好处，穷人就给哪个政治家票。
不断的如此循环，每二十年左右出一起军事政变，这就是你今天看到的。 事实上，惊讶他们今天如此“先进”，令人深思。

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The curse of Argentina, its cancer, is a phenomenon known as Peronism.
Juan Peron was a general who became president, carrying out a highly populist regime, plagued with corruption and clientelism just when Argentina had amassed an incredible fortune selling foodstuffs to the world during World War II.
Peron, and his wife Evita Perón, became the "parents of the poor", giving away money, gifts, houses to the populace and draining the estate's arcs in a few years. This is when the country started its long decline.
Peron became a dictator, and his followers kept on stealing and destroying our economy. The reaction to this came in the form of military Coups d'état, which were no solution to this, and the emergence of extreme left guerrilla groups that caused bloodshed in the 70's.

阿根廷的诅咒，它的癌症，是一种被称为庇隆主义的怪象。
胡安·佩隆（Juan Peron）是一位总统，当阿根廷在二战期间积累了一笔不可思议的财富，在向世界出售商品时，诞生了一个高度腐败的民粹主义政权。
庇隆和他的妻子埃维塔·庇隆（EvitaPerón）成为“穷人的父母”，在几年内向民众捐赠了钱，礼物和房屋，并吃光了房地产的利益。这是该国开始长期下降的时候。
庇隆成为独裁者，他的追随者不断地偷窃和摧毁我们的经济。对此社会的反应是以军事政变的形式出现的，这个政府没有办法解决这个问题，并且在七十年代出现了极左的游击队。

During the last decades, there was a profound demographic transformation, with the Middle Class (once the largest in Latin America) shrinking while the lower classes exploded out of control.
The Kirchner era (from 2001 to this day) is the cherry in the cake. By far, the most corrupt and prepotent government in all our history. The Kirchners (Nestor and his wife Cristina Fernández de Kirchner) punished the agricultural industry (which fought the confiscatory taxes that left them with no profit) by banning the export of meat and dairy products.
You read well, the government banned the exports of our flagship industries, thus losing foreign markets that were dominated by our country for decades.

在过去的几十年中，人口阶层发生了深刻的变化，中产阶级（曾经是拉丁美洲最大的阶层）正在萎缩，而下层阶级则失控。
基什内尔时代（从2001年到今天）是蛋糕中的最美樱桃。到目前为止，这是我们历史上最腐败，最优秀的政府。基什内尔（内斯特和他的妻子克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯·德基什内尔）通过禁止出口肉类和奶制品来惩罚农业产业（打击没有利润的充公税）。
你们读得不错，政府禁止我们旗舰产业的出口，从而失去了我国几十年来主宰的外国市场。

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Three simple things:
1. Weakness for populism and caudillismo.
Argentinians love big personalities and want to be saved by them, which makes them easy prey for big mouths.
2. Big egos = bad team players.
Argentinians are usually great individuals but many will not think twice in letting down a partner to make themselves out stand. Every time there is an economic crisis the number of Argentinean expats grows exponentially.
3. Sense of self entitlement.
Argentinians usually think they deserve the best because they struggle to be the best and so they tend to sit and wait for the glory to fall from the sky once they win a couple of battles.


三件简单的事情：
1.民粹主义和caudillismo的弱点
阿根廷人喜欢大人物，希望被他们拯救，这使得他们容易被他们的大嘴捕食。
2.大自我=糟糕的团队协作。
阿根廷人通常是有伟大的个人，但许多人不会考虑何伙伴一起站出来。 每次出现经济危机，阿根廷的外国人数量都会呈指数级增长。
3.自我的权利感。
阿根廷人通常认为他们应该得到最好的，因为他们努力成为最好的，一旦他们赢得了几场小胜利，他们就倾向于等待荣耀从天上掉下来。