【 Quora 】:是戈尔巴乔夫摧毁的苏联吗？ [美国媒体]

Did Gorbachev destroy the USSR, or is it just accepted as the "inevitable"?

【 Quora 】:是戈尔巴乔夫摧毁的苏联吗？





I was at the25th anniversary of the end of the Berlin Wall celebration in Berlin onNovember 9, 2014, and the high point of the whole event for me was whenGorbachev came onto the stage about 25 feet from me to take part in the releaseof the balloons that was the symbolic highlight of the event. The emceeintroduced him as "unser Gorby," our Gorby, and the crowd cheeredlouder for him than they did for people like Wolf Biermann, Peter Gabriel, orany other of the celebrities who showed up for the event.
Here's my point.From the viewpoint of the Germans, particularly those who lived for 40 years onthe wrong side of the Iron Curtain, Gorbachev managed a process that may haveturned out radically different than he ever envisioned, but which ended up agood thing for the millions of people who had been held in the oppressive,totalitarian Warsaw Pact and SSR's.
I think it is anindicator of Gorbachev's pivotal role in history that he has continued to liveinto his old age inside of a country that has never fully accepted either hisrole in the end of the USSR or the attempts to open that system withperestroika and glasnost (one of the wonderful words of the final years of theCold War). If he had chosen to live in London, New York City, Paris, or Berlin,he would have spent his declining years among admirers and could have worked tocement the legacy that he certainly deserves more than any other world leaderof the time, including Reagan, Thatcher, Mitterand, or Kohl.

2014年，11月9日,我在柏林参加了柏林墙的25周年庆典,整个典礼的高潮是，当戈尔巴乔夫来到舞台上，就离我25英尺，当气球释放出去，事件的象征意义突出。司仪把他介绍为“戈比人”，我们的戈比，观众为他欢呼，我们的欢呼声要远比像沃尔夫·比尔曼、彼得·盖伯瑞尔，或其他任何到场的名人要高的多。
这是我的观点。从德国人的角度,尤其是那些生活在错误的铁幕一边40年的人,戈尔巴乔夫管理这一过程可能跟他设想的完全不同,但这最后一件好事就是结束了数百万人的压迫,极权主义华约和苏维埃社会主义共和国！
我认为戈尔巴乔夫他在历史上起了关键的作用。他的晚年在那个国家度过，那个国家却没有办法完全接受他在苏联结束或试图打开系统改革和开放政策扮演的角色。(最后几年冷战中美妙的角色之一)。如果他选择住在伦敦、纽约、巴黎或柏林，他将会在仰慕者中度过他的晚年，并他可以努力巩固他的遗产，他肯定比那个时代的任何其它世界领袖都更值得，包括里根、撒切尔、米特朗和科尔。

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There were a lotof things that were taking place when the USSR had fallen apart. First andforemost the economy which had been in stagnation because the leadership of theUSSR was not willing to change the economic model that had sustained the USSRfor so long. The Brezhnev era in particular was very resistant to any kind ofchange that might be necessary for the state to survive. Brezhnev did intervenefor example in Czechoslovakia when they were liberalising parts of society andwere changing the economic outlook so much so that they economy could provideincentives and build up the economy without the huge burden being on the stateto fund it. The USSR was sustaining a lot of the economies of its allies, likefor example Cuba which was and still is under a US blockade, with only the USSRbeing the economy large enough to be able to sustain its oil and otherresources needs in exchange for accepting Cubas sugar cane. Also its satellitestates didn't have much resources to give to the USSR so that USSR was verymuch funding its own control over these countries creating a huge burden on theeconomy. Cambodia which had been wrecked by the genocide undertaken by Pol Potwas sustaining both Vietnam and Cambodia in the aftermath in order to help bothcountries rebuild from the crisis that had ensued in the country. Afghanistanwas probably one of the bigger problems given that the USSR was fighting a hugeproblem on its border and was again taking a lot of its resources, given thatlarge amounts of its hardware was being destroyed and that the country wasalready in stagnation before the war began.

当苏联解体时，发生了许多事情。首先是停滞不前的经济，因为苏联领导人不愿意改变苏联长期维持的经济模式。勃列日涅夫时代特别抵制任何可能为国家生存所必需的变革。勃列日涅夫曾在捷克斯洛伐克进行干预，当时他们正在为开放社会的一部分，并正在改变经济前景，使其经济能够提供激励，并在没有国家负担的情况下建立经济。苏联在维持很多盟友的经济体,比如古巴，现在仍然是在美国的封锁,只有苏联的经济足够大能够维持其石油和其他资源的需求以换取接受古巴的甘蔗。同时，它的卫星国并没有太多的资源给苏联，所以苏联对控制的这些国家提供了大量资金，给其国家经济造成了巨大的负担。柬埔寨曾因波尔布特所进行的种族灭绝而遭到破坏，其又在战后维持了越南和柬埔寨，以帮助两国在该国发生的危机上重建。阿富汗可能是一个更大的问题,因为苏联打击边境上出现一个巨大的破洞,又花费大量的资源,考虑到大量的硬件被毁,这个国家已经在停滞在战争开始之前。

The reformsGorbachev was undertaking were actually started by Yuri Andropov. Yuri Andropovwas the person who began the liberalising of the USSR and was responsiblelargely for the promoting of Gorbachev through the communist party ranksbecause he thought that Gorbachevs radical ideas had the potential of savingthe USSR from imminent collapse. The problem was that Gorbachev wasliberalising everything too quickly and wasn't really thinking of theconsequences of a lot of what he was doing, he was very weak as a leader. Hisideas of Glasnost and Perestroika were good ideas in theory, but it led tothings such as shortages in bread and milk in the shops, it led to hugesessionist movements Also Gorbachev being humiliated by Yeltsin in theaftermath of the coup in 1991 was also cause for huge weakness in the countryfor dealing with all of the problems in the country. Gorbachev wasn't evenrespected by a lot of the Politburo of the Communist Party of the USSR. Anotherhuge problem was that the communist parties themselves wanted to dissolve thecountry, like for example the election of Boris Yeltsin to lead Russia, who wasabsolutely determined to destroy the USSR 。

戈尔巴乔夫所做的改革实际上是由尤里·安德罗波夫发起的。尤里·安德罗波夫(Yuri Andropov)是开始使苏联开放的人，他主要负责让戈尔巴乔夫推动cp党的队伍改变，因为他认为戈尔巴乔夫的激进思想有可能将苏联从即将崩溃的边缘拯救出来。问题是，戈尔巴乔夫把一切都搞得太快了，他并没有真正考虑到他所做的许多事情的后果，他作为一个领导者又非常软弱。他的思想开放和改革的想法理论很好,但它导致诸如商店里的面包和牛奶短缺,这导致了巨大的sessionist运动出现。同时，1991年的政变后，戈尔巴乔夫也受到叶利钦的羞辱，这也导致了该国在处理国际问题上的巨大弱点。戈尔巴乔夫甚至没有受到作为苏联cp党中央政治局的尊重。另一个巨大的问题是cp党自己想解散这个国家,比如鲍里斯·叶利钦领导的俄罗斯选举,他是绝对决心摧毁苏联。

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MikhaelGorbachev have NOT contributed to dissolving USSR, at least directly.
He didn't wantto dissolve it, he wanted reform it.
USSR wasdissolved by Yeltsin and few other leaders of former USSR republics, but theyfollowed Yeltsin, so most of the credits go to him.
Unless you countTaoist concept of "Non-doing" as contribution in Gorbachev's case.:-)

米哈伊尔•戈尔巴乔夫并没有对苏联的解体做出贡献，至少是直接的是没有。
他不想解散它，他想要改革它。
苏联被叶利钦和其他前苏联共和国的领导人解散，但是他们跟随叶利钦，所以大部分的荣誉都留给了他。
除非你认为道家的“不为”的概念，可以把它当做戈尔巴乔夫做出的贡献。:-)

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It was bound tohappen, and he allowed it to happen in a less ridiculous way.
It was bound tohappen, because the Soviet Union's economy was based on lies and corruption.The money and the food would run out eventually and the government wouldcollapse.
Gorbachev triedto save the Union and make it more democratic. He miscalculated the amount ofeconomic and ethnic troubles and failed at keeping it together.
People who areunhappy about the USSR's collapse hate Gorbachev. They call him an American spyand say that he carried out the American plan to destroy Russia. I don't have areason to think that this is literally true: America was certainly happy aboutthe downfall of its biggest enemy, and its foreign policy was explicitly aimedat that, but unless proven otherwise Gorbachev carried out his own policy, theresults of which just happened to fit America's goals.
WithoutGorbachev, the Soviet Union would probably collapse in a much uglier way, withmuch more street violence. The freedom of speech that Gorbachev institutedallowed people to express themselves verbally rather than just through fistsand guns. Without this, it is likely that Russia would go through a darkerperiod of a fascist "emergency" government or something along theselines.

这是注定要发生的，他让它以一种不那么可笑的方式发生。
这必然会发生，因为苏联的经济是以腐败和谎言为基础的。这些钱和食物最终会被耗尽，政府也会崩溃。
戈尔巴乔夫试图挽救苏联，使其更加民主。他错误地估计了经济和民族问题的艰巨，并未能将其保持在一起。
对苏联解体感到不满的人痛恨戈尔巴乔夫。他们称他为美国间谍，并说他执行了摧毁俄罗斯的美国计划。我没有理由认为确定如此:美国肯定是高兴最大敌人的垮台,和它的外交政策是明确的除非能证明戈尔巴乔夫自己推行的政策,而这些结果正好符合美国的目标。
如果没有戈尔巴乔夫，苏联很可能会以更丑陋的方式瓦解，更多的街头暴力。戈尔巴乔夫创立的言论自由允许人们口头表达，而不是通过拳头和枪支。如果没有这一点，俄罗斯很可能会经历一个更黑暗的时期，一个法西斯“紧急”政府时代或类似的事情。

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The Soviet Unionwas in decline when Gorbachev took over. He described it himself. He said tohis officials “We can you tighten our belts very very tightly and reduceconsumption, which the people will no longer tolerate, or we can free up thevast sums which are spent on defence.”
The countrycould no longer feed its own people. Even before Gorbachev took over the USSRhad to import grain from the west.
Also, inhindsight, technology was getting to a point where new products were coming outever few years, quickly making the products of the last few years obsolete. Theslow central planning system would never had survived that world.
What Gorbachevdid was try to fiddle with the system to reform it, not realising how fragileit was. In the process it fell apart.
I once watchedan interview with a Soviet journalist who described it as follows:
“The SovietUnion was held together by two things. The first was a genuine belief in theideology of communism and the second was fear. Gorbachev took away both ofthose and the system fell apart.”
Gorbachevaccelerated s process that was inevitable. Look today at North Korea and howthe country is struggling for its survival.

戈尔巴乔夫掌权时，苏联已经在走下坡路了。他对此如此描述。他对官员们说，“我们可以严格地勒紧裤带，减少消费，但人民不能再容忍了，或者我们可以把用于国防的巨额资金释放出来。”
这个国家再也不能养活自己的人民了。甚至在戈尔巴乔夫接管苏联之前，苏联就不得不从西方进口粮食。
而且，事后看来，新思想技术已经问世数年之久，迅速使得过去几年的想法过时。缓慢的中央计划体系已经永远无法在这个世界上生存下来了。
戈尔巴乔夫所做的是试图拨弄这个系统来改革它，而并没有意识到它是多么脆弱。在这个过程中，它崩溃了。
我曾看过一名前苏联记者的采访，他描述如下:
苏联是由两个因素共同维系的。第一个是对cp主义意识形态的真正信仰，第二个是恐惧。戈尔巴乔夫拿走了这两个系统，系统崩溃了。
戈尔巴乔夫的进程是不可避免的。看看今天的朝鲜，看看这个国家是如何挣扎求生的。

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Which fall? Dothis: read a book by anatoly golytsyn, a former KGB agent, writen in the 60s,predicting everything that happened. The book is called "new lies forold".
Now tell me whatchanged. Satellite states that try to fall from USSRs orbit get attacked (justlike before). Disenters get killed (just like before). There is a sole monarch(just like before), and former KBG agents became olygarchs, running all thecountries relevant industries (got the point?)
Now, which fallof the USSR are you refering to? To me they just changed their name, and put inNew Lies for Old....


谁倒下了?跟我做:读一本书，作者是前克格勃(KGB)特工阿纳托利•戈里琴(anatoly golytsyn)，他在60年代写了一本书，预言了一切。这本书被称为“旧的谎言”。
现在告诉我是什么改变了。试图从苏联轨道上逃离的卫星国会受到攻击(就像以前一样)。被杀的人会被杀死(就像以前一样)。有一个唯一的君主(就像以前一样)，以前的克格莫代理人成为了国家所有相关产业的成员(明白了吗?)
现在，你指的是苏联的哪个陷落?我只是改变了他们的名字,并将在以旧的....开启新的生命。

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He tried toreform socialism so that it actually worked. In the process he actually managedto kill whatever was working in the Soviet system - which wasn't much, but itallowed communist party to keep the power.
Somethingsimilar happened in Poland in 1980s: the reforms genuinely intended to makesocialism work, ruined it so badly that it collapsed.
An interestingbook by W. Wisniewski, an economist working for communist party hq in Poland,has noticed that Soviet satellites that simply kept their brutal, simplisticsocialism in place instead of trying to make it work actually were workingcomparatively better than Poland or Russia back then.
The reason Ithink lies in basic unsoundness of the doctrine: if it does not work, making itmore complex makes it operate ever more poorly.
So I think thatGorbachev was major reason why USSR fell. If he did not try reforms to makesocialism reinvent itself, he could have kept equivalent of today's North Koreain place.

他试图改革社会主义，使之切实可行。在这个过程中，他实际上成功地杀死了苏联体制下的一切——虽然不是很多，但却要让cp党保住了权力。
20世纪80年代的波兰也发生过类似的事情:改革真正意图使社会主义工作，它严重的崩溃了。
威斯涅夫斯基有一本有趣的书，他是波兰cp党总部的一名经济学家，他注意到苏联的卫星国仅仅是把他们的社会主义，野蛮的、简单化的放在了一个地方不动，而不是试图让它实际工作改变，实际上比当时的波兰和俄罗斯要好。
我认为的原因是这个学说不健全:如果它不起作用，使事情变得更复杂，事情就会变得越来越糟糕。
所以我认为戈尔巴乔夫是苏联倒台的主要原因。如果他不尝试改革，以使社会主义重新进行自我改造，苏联就能像今天的朝鲜那样保持不变。

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The Soviet Unionwas designed to break up as easily as possible. constitution  right tofree exit from the Union is already the verdict to the state!
But Gorbachevdid much for collapse of Union of course.
For thebeginning  he gave the presidency to each republic, and then openlyannounced that he creates a new union, and every republic can decide to enterin new Union or not.
Sorry but suchactions can destroy almost any state on the planet.

苏联的设计初衷就是要尽可能地轻易地可以分裂。宪法权利赋予的自由退出联盟是对这个国家的裁决!
当然，戈尔巴乔夫也为联邦的瓦解做了很多工作。
一开始，他把总统职位交给了每个共和国，然后公开宣布他建立了一个新的联盟，每个共和国都可以重新决定是否加入新的联盟。
对不起，但就是这样的行动，几乎可以摧毁这个星球上的任何一个国家。