为什么印度比中国更发达？ [美国媒体]

Why is India more developed than China?

为什么印度比中国更发达？





Sivapradeep Reddy, Trying to understand problems of India
oh yes, India is powerful than China, but that's only in service sector and few high tech MFG industries. (Only after reading your Question description I'd realized! )

Sivapradeep Reddy（印度人）
是的，印度比中国更发达，但仅限于服务业和高端制造业。

Short answer - The main reason for this is India had advanced directly from a traditional agricultural based economy into a services based economy whereas most of the developed economies including east Asian countries progressed from traditional agricultural economy to manufacturing and then finally service based economy sequentially wherein it was possible to absorb all its unskilled and skilled work force. 

概括的说，导致这个结果的主要原因是，印度跨越式地从传统农业型经济转变为服务型经济。而大部分发达经济体包括东亚国家，都是从传统农业到制造业，再从制造业到服务业为主的经济发展顺序，最后才可能吸收所有熟练或者非熟练的劳动力。

Long answer - This transition from agriculture towards service side has roughly started in 1990s era and this led to high GDP growth. By its nature, service sector is performed by professionals i.e. siklled labour but unskilled & semi-skilled labour potential can't be tapped. Being a developed country, it's possible to offer less wages for skilled labour and to extract maximum productivity & efficiency from them at the same time. This is a reason for boom in our IT sector which is dependent on developed economies market. One negative point in this transformation - GDP growth and unemployment  rate, both are increasing. Government has realized it in last few years and to counter this "Make in India" initiative was launched i.e. to tap huge unskilled labour force and reduce unemployment rate for a sustainable growth especially in labour intensive industries.

详细来说，从农业向服务业的转变大致始于20世纪90年代，这导致了印度GDP的高增长。就其性质而言，服务业是由专业人员（熟练劳动力）来完成的，但非熟练和半熟练的劳动者的潜力无法被挖掘。作为一个发达国家，有可能为技术工人提供较少的工资，同时又能从中获得最大的生产力和效率。这是我们依赖发达经济体使得IT业繁荣的一个原因。这一转变中的一个负面因素——失业率的增长。政府在过去几年中已经意识到这一点，并针对这个问题倡议展开“印度制造”，即挖掘庞大的非熟练劳动力，降低失业率以实现可持续增长，特别是在劳动密集型行业。

Now how this transition to MFG is skipped in India in spite of having huge labour strength? 

那么现在，劳动力资源巨大的情况下，印度如何转向制造业呢？

The answer lies particularly in Government's pro-labour policies during first 5 decades of our post-Independence. Even after LPG (Liberalization, Privatization, Globalization) reforms, these archaic laws still tilted towards pro labour. 

关键是在于政府独立后的第一个五十年推行的亲劳工政策。即使是LPG(自由化、私有化、全球化)改革之后，这些陈旧的法律仍然倾向于亲劳工。

How pro labour policies can weaken MFG industries instead of strengthening it ?
I'll try to explain this with few example of laws - 

这些亲劳工政策是如何削弱制造业的而不是增强它呢？我试着援引几条法律来解释它-

There is this law: "Industrial Dispute Act". One important section in it was - If any firm has more than 100 employees than it requires the consent of its state government to retrench or lay off employees. 

劳资纠纷法 - 其中的一个重要部分是--任何一家员工超过100人的公司，节俭开支或裁员都需要得到州政府的同意。

Consequence - Medium scale industries gets demotivated due to this as they don't have enough capital and they won't recruit the people itself in first place. Whereas High capital MFG industries like Automobiles, Pharmaceuticals can afford to train them as per their requirements and can invest on Human resources. For this reason, Indian MFG industry was lead by Automobile, pharma industries.

结果-中等规模的工业因此而失去了活力，他们没有足够的资本，也不会首先招募员工。而高资本制造业如汽车，制药公司就可以完全负担得起培训和对人力资源的投资。因此，印度制造业以汽车、制药行业居首。

There is another law - "Trade Union Act". You can form multiple trade unions within a firm by any minimum 7 employees. 

工会法 - 你可以在任何一家公司内成立多个只需7名员工就能成立的工会。

Result - This encourages firms to remain very small especially in labour-intensive industries. Also it leads to growth of unorganized sector which is bad for govt revenues. 

结果-这使得企业的规模都保持的非常小，特别是在劳动密集型行业。此外，还导致无组织部门的增长，不利于政府创收。

This law - "Contract Labour Act". It regulates and limits the use of contract labour, thereby limiting the suitability between permanent and contractual workers. These contract workers can't be used by firms at their advantage to increase the productivity & profits and hence lacks incentives to invest on them. 

劳动合同法 -它对合同劳工的使用作出了规定，限制了签订长期工作人员。这些合同工不能被公司利用来提高生产率和利润。

The government's recently launched "Skill India" campaign hopefully rectifies this issue.

政府最近发起的“技能印度”运动有望纠正这一问题。

There are few more state laws which makes firm to pay minimum wages which is not possible among certain MFG industries. 

很少有州的法律能让企业支付最低工资，在某些制造业就更不可能。

And all those land acquisition acts are so tedious that they're completely pro-farmer and any reform in them sparks political controversies. Remember, Land is one of the most important factors of production for any industry.

所有土地征用法案都是如此乏味，完全地支持农民，任何的改革都会引发政治争议。记住，土地是任何工业最重要的生产要素之一。

What else China and other East Asian nations has done to counter these ?

而中国和其他东亚国家做了什么来应对这些问题？

Well, i'm not aware of their domestic laws and regulation. But i can tell that their economies are well integrated to global trade in such a way that their MFG industries is export-led growth. 

我不知道他们的国内法规。但可以看出，它们的经济与全球贸易紧密结合，使得它们的制造业是以出口为主的增长。

How ?
When China, S.Korea has started modernizing their economies, they knew well that MFG industry & employment rate can be grown only by demand. But they lacks domestic industries to cater a final product for exporting and so engaged themselves into Global Production Networks (GPNs). GPNs basically engage in trade by specializing in particular stages of production sequence or tasks rather than in final goods. Trade in this kind of intermediate products cross national borders multiple times during the production process. You can observe this model in any of your electronic gadgets. This model helps to set up a lot of small industries which has their own natural advantages instead of manufacturing a complete product. This is basically strengthening backward linkages. 

当中国、韩国开始实现经济现代化时，他们深知制造业和就业率只能靠需求来增长。但他们缺乏国内产业来满足最终出口产品的需求，因此他们投身于全球生产网络(GPNS)。GPNS主要从事贸易，专门从事生产顺序或任务的特定阶段，而不是最终产品。在生产过程中，这种中间产品的贸易多次跨越国界。你可以在你的任何电子产品中观察到这种模式。该模式有助于建立许多自身具有天然优势的小企业，而不是制造完整的产品。

India's MFG sector has not evolved into this process due to various import tariff protection measures other than in Automobile sector. By protecting local industries, you're also screwing their efficiency and productivity. 
In case of automobile industry, India imports various components from across the world but assembles the final product here which requires huge labour and so this sector is more developed comparatively. At the same time, this GPN is implemented in IT sector as GDM (Global Delivery Model). And any IT guy can tell that this GDM model is very cost effective with maximum productivity.

由于除汽车行业外各种进口关税保护措施，印度的其他制造业还没有发展到这一进程。通过保护地方工业，也在破坏他们的效率和生产力。就汽车工业而言，印度虽从世界各地进口各种零部件，但在这里组装最终产品，需要大量的劳动力，因此印度这个方面比较发达。与此同时，GPN在IT部门被实施为GDM(全球交付模式)。任何IT人员都可以看出，GDM模式效益和生产率最高。

Now, Modi is travelling to various countries restlessly for "Make in India" to make our MFG sector to be export led industry just like how China has done 3 decades back. 

现在，莫迪为了“印度制造”而奔赴各个国家，使我们的制造业成为出口导向型产业，就像中国30年前的做法一样。

Way forward - Service sector is almost reaching to its saturation in absorbing skilled labour and it can't absorb unskilled workforce unless they're educated which is another big challenge. 

未来之路--服务业在吸收熟练劳动力方面已接近饱和，除非他们接受教育，否则就无法吸收非技术劳动力，这是另一个重大挑战。

So to be strong in MFG sector, government has to transform ours into an export led industry especially in labour-intensive industries like Textiles, Food processing etc. where it can absorb both unskilled and semi-skilled labour and driving towards a sustainable economy and growth. 

因此，要想在制造业领域保持强势，政府必须将我们的产业转变为出口导向型产业，尤其是在纺织、食品加工等劳动密集型行业，在这些行业中，政府可以吸收非技术和半熟练劳动力，并推动经济持续增长。

Also by integrating "Make in India" like initiatives into GPNs our domestic MFG industries can find new markets and hence increase their growth.

此外，通过将“印度制造”之类的举措纳入GPNS，我们的国内制造业可以找到新的市场，从而促进它们的增长。

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This is most interesting question. Yes India has been a disappointment in infrastructure  & notorious bureaucracy. But, I will take pride in to say that India is more developed in many facets.

这是个很有趣的问题。虽然印度在基建和腐败方面令人失望，但我还是自豪的讲：在很多方面，印度更发达。

First let me tell you some facts.
-India & China got their independence almost at the same time.

首先，让我告诉你一些事实。
-印度和中国差不多是同时独立。

- China being a communist country, with super powered government, consolidate all resources, capital, human or financial, to speed up their economy & infrastructure. Leaving behind their liberty & freedom. 


-中国是个共产主义国家，强大的中央政府掌控着全部的资源、资本、人力和金融，有利于经济和基础设施建设，但它抛弃了民主和自由。

- But India, while in her nascent stage, faced many hurdles in every dimension, from communal riots, political instability in NE states to J&K insurgency. Most important & difficult one at that time, States bifurcation on linguistic basis.  We consolidated all our resources to fight these problems without losing our Democratic, Secular fabric of India. 

-印度在发展的初级阶段，许多方都面临阻碍，比如公众暴乱，东北诸邦的政治不稳定，还有最重要和最困难的：各邦的语言也是五花八门。虽然我们整合了所有的资源来解决这些问题，但我们没有丧失我们长期以来的社会结构-民主。

Finally now, India is world largest democratic country with vast diversity. 

而现在，印度已经是世上最大的幅员辽阔的民主国家。

You know what Democracy means to an individual, when compared to Communalism. 

与共产主义相比，你知道民主意味着什么。

India is better than China

印度比中国好的地方：

- India’s demographic mix will continue to be much more favourable than   China’s. (Dependency Ratio -  China has more 60+ aged population)India has historically had more free market orientation than China & Russia.

-印度的人口结构更有优势，年轻人更多。印度有更长的自由市场经济的历史。

- State controlled companies account for only 14% GDP. But in China, it is above 60. You know how much competent State Govt Companies(PSU's) are. China has hugely inefficient state owned enterprises.India’s currency market is more open than China’s.RBI is independent of Govt influence, unlike in ChinaIndia’s exports are less volatile because they consist largely of services, whereas China’s exports are more exposed to manufactured goods which are cyclical.India has a high savings rate, but it hasn’t slowed domestic consumption.

-国有经济只占GDP的14%，中国是60%以上，中国国有企业的竞争效率低下。
-印度的资本市场比中国的更开放。印度储备银行不受政府的影响，中国则不是。
-由于印度的出口基本上是由服务业构成，它的波动较小。中国的出口是制造业商品，易受周期性影响。
-印度的储蓄率高，不过也没影响国内消费。
-印度的优势：英语，新闻自由，健全法律系统。

Finally, if you were in china at this this, may be, you wouldn't been allowed to read answer for your question. :)India has the English language, free press, and legal system.

最后，如果你在中国，你也许不会被允许看到这些。

Anonymous friend, 
In the long run, India has many advantages for economic development, especially compared to China

从长远来看，印度的经济发展方面有许多优势，特别是与中国相比。