中国是如何看待朝韩统一问题的？ [美国媒体]

Is China the only nation that still opposes Korean reunification?

中国是如何看待朝韩统一问题的？





Donghwan Kim, College Student. Korean Canadian.（大学生，韩裔加拿大人）
Actually, all countries support Korean reunification, but all under different conditions.

实际上，所有的国家都支持韩朝统一，但是是在不同的条件下。

China
China supports any Korean reunification, but under three conditions: denuclearization of the peninsular, dissolve USA-Korea alliance, and absence of the US military.

中国
中国支持朝韩统一，但有三个条件：半岛无核化，解散美韩同盟，撤离美国驻军

USA
USA supports reunification by South Korea while maintaining her alliance and military presence in the peninsular.

美国
在保持美国在半岛的联盟和军事存在的基础下，支持由韩国主导的统一。

South Korea
South Korea wants to unify the peninsular under its control. South Korea would prefer having a nuclear arsenal so it can stay independent from both China and USA.

韩国
韩国希望在自己的控制下统一半岛。韩国也希望拥有核武库，这样他就能在中美之间保持独立。

North Korea
North Korea wants to unify the peninsular under its control. Nuclear arsenal is the only leverage North Korea has, so denuclearization is very tough decision.

朝鲜
朝鲜想在自己的控制下统一半岛。核武器是朝鲜的唯一优势，所以无核化是一个很艰难的决定。

Japan
Japan is not a major participant, but nonetheless Japan is tired of NK’s tantrums and wants its hostages back. Japan wants denuclearized peninsular controlled by South Korea with weaker army.

日本
日本不是一个主要的参与者，虽然如此，日本受够的朝鲜的突然发怒，并想要接回他的人质。日本期待一个弱军事能力韩国控制下的无核半岛。

Robin Daverman, World traveler（世界旅行家）
Is China the only nation that still opposes Korean reunification?

中国是唯一仍然反对半岛统一的国家吗？

No. Don’t be silly. China has always supported Korean unification. Former US National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinskihimself said so in his book The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy And Its Geostrategic Imperatives: Zbigniew Brzezinski. China not only made public statement to this effect, but recent Wikileaks had leaked internal diplomatic cables testifying to this statement. WikiLeaks row: China wants Korean reunification, officials confirm

不是。别傻了。中国一直支持半岛统一。美国前国家安全顾问兹比格涅夫布热津斯基在他的书（大棋局：美国的首要地位及其地缘战略：兹比格涅夫·卡济米尔兹·布热津斯基。）里是那么说的。中国不仅为此公开声明，而且最近的维基解密传出的内部外交电报证实了这个声明。维基链接：中国支持半岛统一，官方确认。

China supports the "independent and peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsula in the long term" and cannot afford to give the North Korean regime the impression it has a blank cheque to act any way it wants, Chinese officials based in Europe said today.

从长远看，中国支持“独立、和平的半岛统一”并且不想给朝鲜政权一个他可以为所欲为的印象，这样的后果是中国承担不了的。中国在欧洲的官方总部今天这样说。

The one who strongly opposes Korean reunification is the US, according to Brzezinski himself.

据布热津斯基自己说，强烈反对半岛统一的是美国。

the former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, in his 1997 bookThe Grand Chessboard (probably the fullest and frankest public exposition of America's post-Cold War global strategy), repeatedly explains how this development would in fact jeopardize America's unipolar strategy: it would, he argues, reflecting views long and widely held in policymaking circles, obviate the ostensible need for U.S. troops on the peninsula, which could lead to a U.S. pullback from East Asia, which could, in turn, lead to Japan's becoming "militarily more self-sufficient," which would lead to political, military, and economic rivalry among the region's states. Thus the best situation is the status quo in Korea, which allows for U.S. forces to be stationed there indefinitely.

美国前国家安全顾问兹比格涅夫布热津斯基在他1997年的新书《大棋局》（可能是对美国冷战后全球战略的最全面和坦白的公开阐述）中，反复解释了这种变化（译注：半岛统一）会如何危害美国的单极战略。与决策权长期广泛持有的观点相反，他争论到这会影响美国的战略。消除美国军队在半岛的存在理由（实际上并没有），这可能导致美国从东亚撤军，反过来，这会导致日本变得“军事自给自足”，这会导致该地区军事、政治、经济紧张对立。所有最好的情况就是现况，允许美国军队无限期地驻扎下去。

Source: A New Grand Strategy

来源：新型大战略（译注：官方书名翻译没找到）

If you are talking about the planned peace talk between the two Koreas and the US in Finland, North Korean diplomat heads to Finland for talks with U.S. and South Korea representatives you should know that the North Korean diplomats went to Beijing first, and then flew from Beijing to Finland. (LEAD) N.K. foreign minister seen at Beijing airport ahead of U.S.-proposed summit

如果你说的是近期计划巨型的朝鲜、韩国和美国在芬兰的和平对话，“朝鲜外交官前往芬兰与韩国和美国代表会谈”，你应该知道，朝鲜外交官先去了北京，然后才飞去芬兰。“（链接）朝鲜外交官在前往美国举行的峰会之前，出现在北京机场”

You are barking up the wrong tree.

你吼错对象了。

Cyrus Zhang
The question should be ”Is South Korean the only nation that want a Korean reunification?”

这个问题应该是“韩国是唯一想要半岛统一的国家吗？”

A unified Korea is against the interest of all parties involved, except South Korea.

一个统一的半岛与所有牵涉者的利益相悖，除了韩国。

Japan: for obvious reason, they would not like to see a competitor to become even more competitive, not to mention the deep-rooted anti-Japanese complex of South Korea due to history issue.

日本：显然，他们不想看到一个竞争者变得更强大，更别提由于历史原因导致的深深根植于韩国的反日情结。

China & Russia: they too, for obvious reason do not want a powerful neighbor, especially when the neighbor is a pawn of the USA.

中国和俄罗斯：同样的，他们也不希望有一个强大的邻居，尤其是这个邻居是美国的棋子。

USA: the ultra goal of uncle sam`s diplomatic policy is to ensure its hegemony, the best scenario of Korea peninsula is to maintain the status quo. They know the South Korean Army can not fight, the North Korea is the best excuse for the continuing existence of US troop in the peninsula, for better control of its pawn and to contain China & Russia.Also, they would not tolerate their pawn to grow too strong(like the Japanese did in 1980s).

美国:美国外交政策的最高目标是确保他的霸权地位，最好的情况就是朝鲜半岛保持现状。他们知道韩国军队没有战斗力，朝鲜就是在半岛保持驻军的最好借口，同时也能更好地控制他的棋子去牵制中饿。同时，他们也不允许自己的棋子变得太强大（就像1980年代的日本）

North Korea: Kim knows very well that if the peninsula goes to reunification, his family dynastic would collapse and he might face hanging like Saddam Hussein. In the best scenario,let`s say he and his family could get amnestied, however, he still could not enjoy the power and wealth like he does now.

朝鲜：金正恩非常清楚，如果半岛统一了，那么他的家族王朝就会走向覆灭，他自己也面临像萨达姆一样的绞刑。就算最好的情况，他和他的家人被赦免，但是，他再也不能像现在这样享受权利和财富了。

So, no, the peninsula would not reunify because nobody except South Korea want so(and South Korea is too weak compared to other parties).

所以，不。半岛不会统一，因为除了韩国，每人希望这发生（并且韩国同其他各方相比太弱小了）

Would a war break out? Still a big NO, because it is against the interest of all parties.

那么会爆发战争吗？绝对不会，因为战争与各方的利益相悖。

Wai Pun, from Hong Kong（来自香港）
I don't think the US and China and other countries are interested in seeing a reunification of two Korean regimes in close future.

我不认为在短期内，美国和中国或者其他国家愿意看到一个统一的朝鲜。

Look at the lesson from the fall of Berlin Wall. It caused a lot of instability in Europe in the 90s. Now the two Koreas are less ready for reunification than the Germany 30 years ago. Not to mention, the currency, economy, they don't even have a will to unify.

想想柏林墙的倒下造成了什么。在90年代的欧洲造成了非常多的不稳定。现在的韩国和朝鲜比德国30年前为统一做的准备还少。更别提货币，经济，他们甚至没有统一的意愿。

In the short term, I don't see any countries benefits from it. In long term, it will be a very differnt story. My personal guess is not before China takes back Taiwan in 50 or 100 years later in a nice way if it can happen. Then it may change everyone mind about Korea. But again, this is very hard to predict.

就眼前来说，我没有看到任何一个国家从中受益。长期来讲，就是一个不同的故事了。我个人猜测，如果中国能在50-100后漂亮地收回台湾，那么也许会改变各方对朝鲜问题的看法。但是，这是很难预测的事。

Mike Wu, lives in China（住在中国）
China and Russia worry about a unified Korea with US bases shoved right up their borders.

中俄担心的是一个美国在他们的边界上驻有军队的统一朝鲜。

The US doesn't like the possibility of losing the reason to stay on the Korean Peninsula and giving up their only East Asian continental bases.

美国则不远失去他们留在半岛的理由，也不远放弃他们在东亚大陆唯一的基地。

Japan is terrified of a unified powerful economic competitor nursing some deep hatred of Japanese imperialism and colonization.

日本则害怕一个对日本帝国主义和殖民怀有深仇大恨的统一的强大的经济竞争者。

The North Korean elites are definitely not going to give up their positions at the top of their food chain with all the attendant privileges.

朝鲜的精英们绝对不会放弃他们在食物链顶端的位置，和随之而来的特权。

Nobody is actually onboard with unification unless interests are taken care of.

没人愿意统一，除非各方的利益都被照顾到了。

Martin Dièdre, Bachelor History, Aix-Marseille University（历史学士，艾克斯马赛大学）
Not at all. I personally don’t know about all the parties, but about Japan the fear about reunification comes from the idea of the alliance of the nuclear program of North Korea and the military skill and financial power of South Korea. Together they could create a very powerful Korea with over 75 millions citizens, nuclear weapon and a deeply intense anti-Japanese sentiment. Pretty threatening for Japan.

不是。我个人不是很了解各方，但是对日本来说，日本害怕统一的国家有拥有朝鲜的核武器和韩国的军事技术与经济能力。在一起，他们能创造一个强大的国家，拥有7500万人口，核武器和强烈的反日情绪。对日本来说是个大威胁。

He Hang
China wants not only Korean reunification but also the denuclearization of the region.

中国不仅想要半岛统一，还想要半岛无核化。

IMO, it’s US who opposes the reunification of the Korea peninsular. Once the peninsular reunification is done, US will no longer has any reason to maintain its military presence in the region, which US might think benefits China and Russia too much.

在我看来，是美国反对半岛统一。一旦半岛统一，美国军队就毫无在这个区域保持存在的理由，在美国看来这是使中俄受益的事。

Zhang Dayu, PhD candidate Physics & Optics（攻读物理学和光学博士）
Thx for asking. No I don’t think so.

谢邀。我并不这么认为。

The official position of the Chinese gov focuses on denuclearization and peace. Interesting enough to mention that before it was peace and denuclearization. So while I think they must’ve different strategies for different situations, I don’t think they are ready to oppose or promote on unification.

中国政府的官方态度集中于半岛无核化和和平。在无核化和和平这两个条件实现之前讨论这个是没意义的。我认为他们在不同的情况下有不同的预案，我不认为他们准备好反对或者促进统一。

Yeuk C. Moy, BS Met Engr + Mat Sci, Army 19D, OCS, Env. Engr., Mil Buff（译注：这一堆缩写看不懂）
Everybody supports Unification. They just have different ideas on the conditions for the Unification.

大家都支持统一。他们只是在如何统一的问题上观点不同。