日本的艾普斯龙火箭能被用作洲际弹道导弹吗？ [美国媒体]

Can Japan’s Epsilon rocket be used as an ICBM?

日本的艾普斯龙火箭能被用作洲际弹道导弹吗？


 
Japan's solid-fuel rocket, Epsilon-3, launches at the Uchinoura Space Center in Kimotsuki, Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan. Photo: Kyodo via Reuters

日本的固体燃料火箭艾普斯龙-3号，在日本鹿儿岛县肝付町的内之浦太空中心发射。照片：共同社转自路透社

ON January 17, Japan fired an earth observation satellite into orbit aboard an Epsilon rocket, the workhorse of the country’s civilian space program.

1月17日，日本发射艾普斯龙火箭，将一颗地球观测卫星送入了轨道。该火箭是日本国民用航天计划的主力。

The Epsilon is a Japanese solid-fuel rocket designed to launch scientific satellites. It can place a 1.2 ton payload into low earth orbit.

日本的艾普斯龙火箭是一种固体燃料火箭，旨在发射科学卫星。它可以将1.2吨的有效载荷送入近地轨道。

John Pike, a space security expert, says the peaceful rocket has another possible use, however. He says it can be turned into a nuclear delivery vehicle, providing Japanese defense planners with a ready-made way to drop nuclear warheads on Chinese and North Korean cities.

然而，太空安全专家约翰·派克说，这种和平火箭还有另一种可能的用途。他表示该火箭可以转变为一种核武器运载工具，为日本防卫计划制定者提供一种现成的方式，以将核弹头投射到中国和朝鲜的城市。

“It would take Japan less than a year to do this,” Pike told Asia Times. “The Epsilon is a big, solid rocket. All they have to do is take the satellites off the front end and add the warheads.”

派克告诉《亚洲时报》说：“要做到这一点，日本只需要不到一年的时间。艾普斯龙火箭是一种大型的固体火箭。他们所要做的就只要把卫星从火箭顶端拿出来，再换上核弹头。”

Pike argues this is because the interchangeability of satellite and nuclear warhead launch capability is a well-known fact. “We used to say during in the Cold War that the difference between a missile and a satellite launcher isn’t altitude, but attitude,” Pike told Asia Times.

派克认为，这是因为固体火箭的卫星和核弹头可以互换的发射能力是一个众所周知的事实。“我们过去常说，在冷战期间，导弹和卫星发射火箭的区别不在于纬度，而在于态度。”，派克告知《亚洲时报》。

Case in point: the US, China and the Soviet Union have all used intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to loft satellites into orbit. North Korea was only the latest to do so when it launched a satellite on February 7, 2016, in what was widely viewed as a front for a ballistic missile test.

例证：美国、中国和苏联都曾使用洲际弹道导弹将卫星送入轨道。而最近唯一一次这样做的，就是朝鲜于2016年2月7日发射了一颗卫星，这被广泛认为是弹道导弹试验的前沿。

It’s also been known for years that Japan can access ample fissile material from reactor-grade plutonium at its civilian nuclear plants to fashion nuclear warheads and bombs. North Korea, India, Pakistan and others have tapped the same method, using centrifuges and other equipment, to build their nuclear arsenals. Japan’s technological edge would allow it to convert spent nuclear fuel into weapons within months, according to most analysts.

多年来，人们还知道，日本可以从其民用核工厂的反应堆级钚中获取足够的裂变材料，用于制造核弹头和核弹。朝鲜、印度、巴基斯坦和其他国家使用同样的方法，利用离心机和其他设备（浓缩核原料）来打造他们的核武库。据多数分析人士表示，日本的技术优势将使其能够在几个月内yi 将乏燃料转化为核武器。

A nuclear power reactor typically produces 250-300 kilograms of plutonium annually, enough to produce 25-30 weapons. (Japan has 54 civilian nuclear reactors, although 43 are now offline due to safety concerns generated by the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster.)

一个核动力反应堆通常每年生产250-300公斤的钚，足够生产25-30个核武器。（日本有54座民用核反应堆，但是由于2011年福岛核电站灾难引发的安全担忧，目前有43座核电站处于停机状态。）

A debate on whether Japan should go nuclear because of perceived threats from North Korea and China has also gone public. And Prime Minister Shinzo Abe favors developing new weapons to defend the country in a shifting Asian security environment.

一场关于日本是否应该因为朝鲜和中国的威胁而发展核武器的辩论也公开讨论过。而且在亚洲安全环境不断变化的情况下，日本首相安倍晋三是倾向于开发新的武器来保卫国家的。

Nukes still a hot potato

核武器仍然是一个烫手的山芋。

But Abe still faces stiff opposition at home in revising the country’s pacifist constitution to develop offensive (as opposed to purely defensive) military weapons. Any move by Japan to perfect such capability might also draw a sharp military reaction from Beijing or Pyongyang.

但是在修改和平宪法以发展进攻性（而不是纯粹的防御性）军事武器方面，安倍仍然面临着来自国内的强烈反对。日本采取的任何完善这方面能力的措施，也都可能会招致北京或平壤方面强烈的军事反应。

Daniel C. Sneider, an associate director of research for Stanford University’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research, says there’s “no chance” that Japan will develop nuclear weapons anytime soon. “Capability is not the same as reality,” the veteran former Japan correspondent told Asia Times. “Right now a clear majority of Japanese don’t even support constitutional revision. The only way Japan goes nuclear is if the US alliance disappears – and I don’t think even Trump can do that.”

斯坦福大学Walter H. Shorenstein亚太研究所的研究副主任丹尼尔·C.·斯奈德表示，日本“没有机会”在短期内发展核武器。“有能力与现实是不一样的”，这位资深的前日本记者告诉《亚洲时报》，“目前，绝大多数日本人甚至都不支持修宪。日本发展核武器的唯一途径是与美国盟友关系的消失——我认为连特朗普都无法做到这一点。

No technical obstacles

没有技术障碍

But beyond such challenges, Pike stresses there are no technical factors standing in the way of putting nuclear warheads on the Epsilon rocket and otherwise converting it into a serviceable ICBM. “The Japanese have tested re-entry materials” that can be used for nuclear warhead technology,” noted Pike, who runs the military intelligence website globalsecurity.org. The only significant hurdle would be fabricating a nuclear warhead and its accompanying “dispenser” mechanism – something which Pike says Japan could do with ease. The defense analyst also believes Tokyo already has contingency plans for converting the Epsilon into a nuclear missile.

但是派克强调，除了这些挑战之外，没有技术因素能阻碍将核弹头安装在艾普斯龙火箭上，并将其转化为可使用的洲际弹道导弹。“日本已经测试了可用于核弹头技术的再入大气层的材料”，派克表示，他是军事情报网站globalsecurity.org的负责人。唯一重大的障碍在于制造核弹头及其附带的“分离”机制——派克表示日本也可以轻而易举地做到这一点。这位防务分析人士还认为，东京已经制定了将艾普斯龙火箭转换成核导弹的应急计划。

The Epsilon’s big plus as an ICBM is that it relies on solid fuel. Missiles with solid propellants can be preloaded, stored for long periods and launched on short notice. This compares with liquid-fuel rockets whose tanks must be filled with such volatile fuel and need considerable ground preparation before they can be fired.

要转为洲际弹道导弹，艾普斯龙火箭最大的优势在于它是依靠固体燃料推进的。带有固体推进剂的导弹可以预先装填，长时间储存，并在短时间内发射。相比之下，液体燃料火箭的燃料储箱必须充满挥发性燃料，而且需要在地面进行大量准备工作才能发射。

Pike also notes that Epsilon rockets converted for military use don’t require sophisticated targeting. He predicts that if Japan develops ICBMs, they will be aimed at Chinese or North Korean cities. This won’t require precise targeting capability, as in the case when attacking hardened missile silos and other hardened military sites.

派克还指出，艾普斯龙火箭改装用于军事用途并不需要复杂的预先瞄准。他预测，如果日本发展洲际弹道导弹，他们将瞄准中国或朝鲜的城市。这并不需要精确的瞄准能力，就像在攻击坚硬的导弹发射井和其他加固的军事基地时一样。

He adds that Japanese defense contractors would have scant trouble producing the modified satellite rockets as weapons. “I think they could be produced, at the very least, at the rate of one per month,” Pike said.

他补充说，日本防务承包商在生产改装卫星火箭作为武器方面不会有什么麻烦。他说:“我认为最快他们至少可以以每月一枚的速度生产。”

MIRVs too

分导多弹头导弹也难不倒日本

Moreover, it would be relatively easy for Japan to transition from single nuclear warheads to Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) delivery. Pike says that’s because the satellite dispersal technology which allows rockets to send more than one satellite into orbit is the same one that allows separately targeted nuclear warheads to hit multiple targets on the ground.

此外，日本从单一核弹头过渡到分导多弹头导弹也将相对容易。派克说，这是因为卫星分离变轨技术使火箭能够将一颗以上的卫星送入轨道，而这一技术允许将不同目标的核弹头分别击中地面上的多个目标。

Japan could also make its missiles tougher to hit in preemptive strikes by mounting them on railway cars. “Japan has a very dense rail network. Fixed launch sites are just targets,” Pike said, noting that China and other countries are mulling using high-speed trains as mobile missile launchers.

日本还可以通过将导弹安装在铁路车辆上，使其导弹更难被先发打击。“日本有非常密集的铁路网，固定发射阵地只能成为目标，”派克表示，并指出中国和其他国家正在考虑使用高速列车作为机动导弹发射工具。

“The main challenge in this is time and money,” Pike said. “You have to collect all the technology and experts you need and bring it together at one time.”

“主要的挑战是时间和资金，”派克说，“你必须汇集所有你需要的技术和专家，同时把它们整合在一起。”