中印之间会有战争吗？ [美国媒体]

Will there be awar between India and China?

中印之间会有战争吗？



AshutoshShandilya, reading and experiencing
Answered Jul 4,2017
Media wants TRP.War between India and China is not an option and they both know it. China hasspent billions of dollar to improve trade relation with India and I don’t thinkthat they will want a war. 
China has beencrossing international border in the past. But since Modi has been in power,Indian army has adopted a “no-tolerance” policy. Indians are now respondingback to China in it’s own language. China is finding this hard to digest. 
It is not a wartime for the nuclear powers. 
In case of a war,China knows that it is on a weak side. USA has trump and Russia has Putin.Russia will never go against India while USA is busy finding a excuse to take astrong stand against China. Most of the South Asian and East Asian countrieslike Japan, Malaysia, Philippines , Taiwan “HATE” China because of it’sexpansion policy. 
If India and Chinawere to go to war, India will face huge destruction but the war will completelydestroy China. None of the country want that.

媒体想要收视率。印度和中国之间的战争不是一种选择，他们都知道。中国花了数十亿美元来改善与印度的贸易关系，我不认为他们会想要打仗。 
中国过去一直在跨越国际边界。但自从莫迪执政以来，印度军队采取了“不容忍”的政策。印度人现在用自己的语言回应中国。中国发现这一点很难消化。
现在的时代不适合核大国进行战争。
如果发生战争，中国知道自己处于弱势。美国有特朗普，俄罗斯有普京。在美国忙着找借口对中国采取强硬立场的时候，俄罗斯绝不会反对印度。大多数南亚和东亚国家，如日本、马来西亚、菲律宾、台湾“讨厌”中国，因为它的扩张政策。
如果印度和中国开战，印度将面临巨大的破坏，但战争将彻底摧毁中国。没有一个国家想要那样。

Ricki Sardana, MBAIn Professional Accounting from University of Technology, Sydney
First of all hatsoff for the absurd question. Now some realty check. India will never go on awar with China, unless China takes the initiative to instigate it. China is apowerful country, but India is also an iceberg, where not everything isrecorded in Government books (to scam Tax and other purposes). The GDP you seeis just the tip of the iceberg. The government is trying to resolve this Issue,but the civilians are always one step ahead. Now if India is on attack, it willbe a different game all together.
And now I willtell you why, going on a war in this day and age is absurd. The main issue isboth are nuclear country and both packs the power to destroy each other.Knowing that no country wants to go on a war. The most they would do is goingon a cold war which may have been the direction they are heading into.

这个问题真是荒谬啊。除非中国主动挑起战争，否则印度永远不会与中国开战。中国是一个强大的国家，但印度也是一个硬茬子，并非所有的东西都被记录在政府的书中(如骗税和其他目的)。你所看到的GDP只是冰山一角。政府正试图解决这个问题，但平民总是领先一步。
如果印度发起进攻，这将是一场不同的比赛。
现在我来告诉你们为什么，在这个时代进行一场战争是荒谬的。主要问题是两个都是核国家，两个国家都有摧毁对方的力量。所以没有一个国家想要进行战争。他们要做的最多也就是进行冷战，这可能是他们以后的方向。

Aaditya Vadnere,Indian
Often theimpracticality of a third world war is pointed out by the fact that the rivalcountries are major trading partners of each other. However, this has notstopped countries from going to war in the previous world war. Britain was infact a major trading hub for a number of nations till the war broke out.Nuclear weapons in fact provide a clear deterrence for war. Nuclear weaponsassure mutual self destruction. Hence, no country can afford to go to warwithout preparing to sacrifice a few million of its citizens.
Despite this the threat of war from Chinastill looms. This is because of the existence of a totalitarian regime inChina. It can happen that to downplay a civil war, China can attack India. Inthe event of war, citizens of a country forget their internal differences andunite against the common enemy. Thus, China can declare war on India, to divertits citizen attention from the totalitarian regime and thwart any internaldissatisfaction.
Can India willfully declare war on any othernation? By its previous track record, we can safely say, NO. In most of thewars fought by India, it was clearly dragged in the wars. It has always triedto follow the philosophy of non violence. Even when Indian citizens were beingoppressed in other nations( Idi Amin forced many Indians out of Yuganda,Forceful removal of a democratically elected Indian leader in Fiji etc.), Indiahas resisted the temptation of war.
  With its current military capabilities, thereis a strong probability that China would win in a Sino-Indian conflict. Chinahas already humiliated India in 1962 war. However, as one Indian generalrecently pointed out, that the current Indian military is not theunder-prepared military of 1962. China might win but it would not be withoutsome serious losses.
Some analysts may assume that U.S. would sideto India in a Sino-Indian conflict. However, historically U.S. has eitherremained aloof from Indian military conflicts or on the wrong side of it. U.S.didn't participate in the second world war till the Pearl Harbor attack byJapan. With both India and China as its trading partners, it may just remainneutral or become a negotiator between them.

第三次世界大战的不切实际之处在于，通常情况下敌对国家往往是彼此的主要贸易伙伴。然而，这并没有阻止各国在上一次世界大战中参战。在战争爆发之前，英国实际上是许多国家的主要贸易中心。核武器事实上为战争提供了明确的威慑，确保相互毁灭。因此，任何国家在没有准备牺牲几百万国民的情况下，就别想着发动战争了。
尽管如此，来自中国的战争威胁依然若隐若现。这是因为中国存在着极权主义政权。如果为了淡化内战，中国可能会攻击印度。在战争中，一个国家的公民忘记了他们的内部分歧，团结起来对抗共同的敌人。因此，中国可以向印度宣战，将其公民的注意力从极权主义政权和任何内部的不满中转移出来。
印度会蓄意的向其他国家宣战吗?根据以往的记录，我们可以有把握地说，没有。在印度所进行的大部分战争中，印度显然是被牵连的。它一直试图遵循非暴力的哲学。即使印度公民在其他国家受到压迫（伊迪·阿明迫使许多印度人离开了乌干达，强行驱逐了在斐济民选的印度领袖等），印度也抵制了战争的诱惑。
以目前的军事实力，中国很有可能在中印冲突中获胜。中国在1962年的战争中已经羞辱了印度。但是正如一位印度将军最近指出的那样，现在的印度军队并不是1962年没有准备好的军队。中国可能会赢，但也会损失惨重。
一些分析家可能认为美国会在中印冲突中支持印度。然而，从历史上看，美国要么对印度军事冲突无动于衷，要么就站在错误的一边。直到日本偷袭珍珠港，美国才参加第二次世界大战。由于印度和中国都是美国的贸易伙伴，所以美国可能只是保持中立，或者成为它们之间的调停者。

Nakul Kaushal,Operations Associate at TEDxGLAU (2017-present)
Answered Jul 19,2017
Actually the waris not gonna happen for sure or if it happens, it'll not take place all of asudden. 
You might haveheard​ the media and people everywhere that they want war but they don't evenknow the consequences of it!
One war with anycountry means spending thousands of crore rupees in a quick span of time andthe risk that include of getting killed of un-countable​ CIVILIANS of both thecountries!
China is behavinglike it shouldn't​. We aren't the biggest market for Chinese goods but we areand in globalized economy, it's almost impossible to boycott Chinese productsbut can mollify its usage ! 
Thanks and regards!

其实战争是不会发生的，如果发生了的话，这一切也都不会是突然发生的。
你可能听过媒体和世界各地的人们说他们想要战争，但他们甚至不知道战争的后果！
一场与任何国家的战争意味着在一段很短的时间内花费成千上万的卢比，包括两国无数的平民被杀害的风险!
中国的行为是不应该的。我们不是中国商品的最大市场，在全球化的经济中，抵制中国产品几乎是不可能的，但我们可以劝解人们不使用!
感谢并问候！

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Saurabh Kandhvey,Indian Enthusiast
As both aredeveloping countries so they will avoid the war unless and until some veryserious problem occurs. India is a big market for Chinese products so no pointto destroy the big market but yes they will try to make India weaker bysupporting Pakistan and other neighbors countries.

因为这两个国家都是发展中国家，所以除非发生一些非常严重的问题，否则他们将避免战争。印度是中国产品的一个大市场，所以没有理由去摧毁这个大市场，但是他们会试图通过支持巴基斯坦和其他邻国来削弱印度。

One, it will askits lackey Pakistan to make the entire western border hot when it wants topressure India. Pakistani firing and shelling of Indian positions has been notso much on the Line of Control (LoC) but the settled international border (IB).This has probably been done at the urgings of China. It means, when Chinawinks, Pakistan can make the entire Kashmir LoC and IB a live battleground.

其一，当中国想向印度施压时，它会要求它的仆人巴基斯坦把整个西部边界都弄得沸腾。巴基斯坦对印度阵地的开火和炮击并不是在停火控制线上，而是在国际边界上。这很可能是在中国的强烈要求下做的。这意味着，当中国递眼色的时候，巴基斯坦就可以使整个克什米尔地区停火控制线和国际边界成为一个活生生的战场。

Two, insurgency inthe North-East will keep the army busy in Nagaland and Manipur, whiledistracting us from Arunachal.
China'scalculations could revolve around a quick surgical strike to capture Tawang -despite adverse terrain - or a bigger grab in Kashmir to use as a bargainingchip to gain Tawang. It may also be betting that India will not fight too hardfor Tawang or threaten nuclear mayhem in retaliation. India has made themistake of not developing tactical nuclear weapons unlike Pakistan, which willhave no qualms about using them if we make territorial gains on the westernfront.

第二，东北部的叛乱将使军队在纳加兰和曼尼普尔区忙碌，同时让我们从阿鲁纳恰尔分散注意力。中国的盘算可能是以快速的外科手术来夺取塔旺(尽管地形不利)，或者在克什米尔占领更大的地区，以作为获得塔旺的谈判筹码。中国可能在打赌，印度不会为塔旺打得太狠，也不会以核打击的报复来做威胁。印度犯了一个错误，不像巴基斯坦那样发展战术核武器。如果我们在西线上攻城略地，巴基斯坦会毫不犹豫的使用核武器。

In essence, Chinais developing a two-front war capability vis-à-vis India and hobble it withvarious insurgencies – a Pakistan-propped one in the west, and a more covertone in the north-east. The aim may be to get us to part with Tawang, with orwithout a short war. With Tawang won, China will put up a show of"magnanimity" and offer to settle the border elsewhere.

从本质上讲，中国正在发展一种对印度的两线作战能力，并让印度在各种叛乱中蹒跚而行—— 西部战场是巴基斯坦维持的，东北部战场则更为隐蔽。这样做的目的可能是让我们与塔旺分开，不管有没有一场短暂的战争。在赢得塔旺后，中国将展现出“宽宏大量”的姿态，并提出在其他地方解决边境问题。

The point issimple: China will not see a "short" border war as necessarily a badthing. India should be more than ready for it, and must lose no time preparingfor it.
The key elementsof our strategy should be the following: strengthen the army's preparedness todefend Tawang and Ladakh at all costs and make this obvious to China; createthe new mountain corps quickly, and speed up investment in borderinfrastructure; create a crash pan to develop and deploy tactical nuclearweapons and make it clear that these will be used only on the China border.

道理很简单：中国未必会认为“短期”的边境战争是一件坏事。印度应该为此做好充分准备，而且必须不失时机地为此做好准备。
我们战略的关键要素应该是: 加强军队不惜代价保卫塔旺和拉达克，并让中国明白这一点; 快速创建新山地兵团，加快边境基础设施投资; 建立一个应急小组来开发和部署战术核武器，并明确表示这些武器只会在中国边境使用。

The paradox ofNarendra Modi successful Asian diplomacy involving China's rivals (Japan andVietnam specifically) is that China may want to strike before Modi manages tostrengthen India's economy, defences and alliances. This calculation may havethe adverse consequence of making China rush into a short war before Indiaimproves his fighting capabilities.
The only way toprevent Chinese adventurism of the 1962 kind is to prepare for one.

莫迪成功地与中国的竞争对手(尤其是日本和越南)展开了成功的亚洲外交，中国可能希望在莫迪成功加强印度经济、防御和联盟之前进行攻击。这个盘算可能会让中国在印度提高自己的战斗能力之前匆匆进行一场短暂的战争。
防止1962年中国冒险主义的唯一方法就是为其做准备。

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Apoorva Banerjee,Born Indian. Shaped Indian.
Answered Jul 19,2017
No. War will nothappen.
PM Modi and XiJinping are both smart enough to realise that.
If a war happens,nobody will benefit from unnecessary bloodshed. India and China already havebillions of dollars in trade, plus billions more in investments in business andinfrastructure. Nobody would want to lose that .
Plus if a warbegins, there's no saying that which other countries would get involved?

不。战争不会发生。
印度和中国都很聪明，足以意识到这一点。
如果战争发生，没人会从不必要的流血中获益。
印度和中国已经有数十亿美元的贸易，再加上数十亿美元的商业和基础设施投资。没人想要失去这些。
另外，如果战争开始了，没有其他国家会参与进来吗?

Prashanth Bantwal,lives in Bengaluru, Karnataka, India
Answered Jul 4,2017
Rule one when itcomes to Indian media which every Indian knows is Indian media people arefucking insensitive morons who would even sell their parents for a juicy story.Ask the Nepalese. They got a taste of Indian media when they were sufferingfrom the tragedy of the recent earthquake. These guys single handedly managedto destroy most of the good will generated through Indian support and relief. 
A war between twonuclear powers is a terrible thing and is not very likely. Saner minds willprevail and both parties will de escalate and the disputed region will go backto being a sort of no mans land. Now both parties are testing the resolve ofeach other. Building structures in disputed regions and cementing their claimof those regions has been Chinas preferred tactic. While many of its neighboursare small countries which can be pushed around. India wants to make it clearthat it is no push over. Bhutan is under the protection of India and if China wantsto bully Bhutan it has to go through India. Even through all this tension,there has been no bullet fired by both sides which goes to show how much bothsides want to avoid war. A war between India and China would be extremelyexpensive and damage the growth of both economies.

当涉及到印度媒体时，每一个印度人都知道他们是愚蠢的笨蛋，他们甚至会为了一个有趣的故事出卖他们的父母。问尼泊尔人，当他们遭受最近地震的悲剧时，他们尝到了印度媒体的滋味。这些家伙一手摧毁了印度支持和救济带来的大部分善意。
两个核大国之间的战争是一件可怕的事，不大可能发生。理智将占上风，双方将逐步降低该地区的风险，并且争议地区将会回到无人土地的状态。现在双方都在考验对方的决心。在争议地区建造建筑并巩固他们对这些地区的主张，一直是中国的首选策略。而它的许多邻国都是可以任其摆布的小国。印度明确表示，他们不会被推翻。不丹在印度的保护之下，如果中国想恐吓不丹，就必须经过印度。即使在这种紧张局势下，双方都没有开火，这表明双方都希望避免战争。印度和中国之间的战争将是极其昂贵的，并且会损害两国经济的增长。

Avinash Avi,Software Engineer (2017-present)
Answered Jul 13,2017 
There is nopossibility of war between india and china. 
China and indiahas the largest army in the world along with huge nuclear warhead reserves.ifthe war could happen then both the countries would be destroyed.
Both are Risingeconomies growing at average speed of 7% . If any war could happen betweenchina and india, Investors will stop investing in these countries hencebringing down the growth. This will result in huge loss for the business mensin both countries. Share markets will probably will have worst crash inhistory.
Both Chinese andindian officials will solve any problems diplomatically rather than head tohead fight with arms.
Most of theChinese State run companies or supported by Chinese goverment have hugeinvestment in india(Like huawei,Chinese Railway,SAIC,wanda etc).and it tends toincrease in coming years.
India is theattractive destination for any Chinese company. India is the biggest market forany chinese company after there home market. This leads to business leaderforcing the goverment to stop war against india.

印度和中国之间没有战争的可能性。中国和印度拥有世界上最大的军队和巨大的核弹头储备。如果战争发生，那么两个国家都将被摧毁。
这两个国家的经济都在以平均7%的速度增长。如果中国和印度之间发生战争，投资者将停止对这些国家进行投资，从而降低增长速度。这将给两国的商人带来巨大的损失。股市可能将遭遇历史上最严重的崩盘。
中国和印度官员都将通过外交手段解决任何问题，而不是诉诸武力。
大多数中国国有企业或中国政府的支持在印度有巨大的投资（如华为、中国铁路、上汽集团、万达等）而且未来几年还会有增长。
对于任何中国公司来说，印度都是吸引人的目的地。在他们的国内市场之后，印度是所有中国公司最大的市场。 这导致商界领袖迫使政府停止对印度的战争。

Dhananjay Mishra,Masters in Electrical Engineering, SUNY Buffalo
Answered Jul 14,2017 
Long answer short- NO.
War is inevitable,but not between China & India.
A war is veryunlikely due to the nuclear weapons and trade relations. Also just for yourinformation 2/3rd of Chinas export import business happens through the IndianOcean. So Gen Bipin Rawat knows it very well that China won't go to war, henceall those comments about India is prepared for war with China.
Politicaly, therewill be lot of threatening, taking here and there but not a war.
Thanks forreading!

长话短说——不会。
战争是不可避免的，但不是中印之间的战争。
由于核武器和贸易关系，战争不太可能发生。也仅供您参考，中国进出口贸易的2/3是通过印度洋进行的。因为Bipin Rawat将军非常清楚中国不会发动战争，因此所有关于印度的评论都是准备与中国开战。
政治上，会有很多恐吓，恐吓这里恐吓那里，但不是战争。 
感谢你的阅读!

Rakesh Gandhi Dr,Practice as an Advocate (1997-present)
Updated Aug 21 
There are rarechance for war because there are few reasons
First India is oneof biggest market for China and about 60% Chinies Mobile and electronicsproducts are consumed in India beside than other products.
Secondly most ofChines companies have invested in India
Third China isalready over debted and have thrice time more foreign debts than India.Hiseconomy is already in critical position. Recently it was published China isretiring 12 lakh soldiers.
China has borderdispute with 13 countries.
This time All mostdeveloped countries like USA, Russia, Japan, Israel and many more are withus,In 1962 both USA and then USSR refused to supply arms and ammunition toIndia.
So China willthink twice before indulging in war.Economy of both countries will suffer a lotif go into war.Chines will more sufferer than India.

由于这几个理由，所以战争的几率很小。
首先印度是中国最大市场之一，大约60%中国手机和电子产品在印度消费，此外还有很多其他的产品。
其二大部分中国公司在印度投资。
其三中国已经负债过多，比印度的外债多三倍。他的经济已经处于危急关头。最近，中国公开了正在退役12万名士兵。
中国与13个国家有边界争端。这一次，美国、俄罗斯、日本、以色列等所有最发达的国家都和我们在一起，1962年美国和苏联都拒绝向印度提供武器和弹药。
因此，中国在沉溺于战争之前会三思而后行。两国的经济如果陷入战争，将会遭受很大的损失。中国将比印度损失得更多。

Raja Babu, LifeCoach
Answered Jul 7,2017 
I hope not. Whatwould be the aim for either side, how would they define victory, at what cost?It's very likely that the costs in terms of money and human life anddestruction will heavily outweigh the benefits. Let there be peace, everyoneloses in a war except for foreign moneybags, arms suppliers and the westernworld that's feeling the heat of a rising 3 billion Asians

我希望不会。双方的目标是什么？他们将如何定义胜利，代价是什么？很可能，金钱、人类生命和毁灭的代价将大大超过利益。让那里和平吧，除了外国富翁、军火供应商和西方世界，每个人都在战争中输掉了，感受正在崛起的30亿亚洲人的热情。  

AmartyaBhattacharjee, Manager (2013-present)
Answered Jul 7,2017 
Dear, 
I dont think i aman expert of international politics so would just give my thoughts on thisquestion. 
War is a psycologythat one needs to see.. Imagine some day you get a licence and buy a gun andyou have job of money collection agent with a company. Your job will requireyou to incite fear in peoples head to get your objevtive done, i.e recover thepayables from them. Now you may show the gun sometimes to tough client but youwont shoot them necessarily. Because shooting will kill that person and thatwill have consequences for you. 
The countries todo the same, they have the guns and bombs as show of strength, they dont usethat unless its absolutely unavoidable. Military might a way to get their saywith other countries and ensure the world takes them seriously. ( tomorrow ifbangladesh wants a war with india you wont be so alarmed as bangladesh iscomparitively weak. So china is succesfull as it is clearly able to create thefear that it want to incite and vice versa) 
Earlier, the warswere less destructive as the weapons were less powerfull, but todays nuclearage a war can cause absulte destruction of the whole humanity, and thecountries know that and no one wants that to happen. The world has seen enoughwars to know what a war can do. 
No one can sayabsolutely if it is impossible that a war might break out, but yes thepossibilities are less, the world is watching and there are other strongcountries who will ensure this does not happen, Especially between two nuclearcountries like India and China.

我不认为自己是国际政治专家，所以只能就这个问题提出自己的看法。
战争是一门心理学，人们需要想想……想象一下，有一天你拿到了执照，买了一支枪，你在一家公司找到了一份收款代理人的工作。你的工作需要你在人们的心理煽动恐惧以达成你的目的，即从他们那收回账款。你可能会向你强硬的顾客展示你的枪，但你不会射杀他们。因为杀了他们对你没好处。
各国也一样，他们有枪和炸弹作为展示力量，他们不使用，除非绝对不可避免。军事可能是一种与其他国家对话的方式，并确保世界认真对待他们。（明天如果孟加拉想和印度进行战争，你不用如此惊慌，因为孟加拉比较弱。所以中国是成功的，因为它显然能够制造出它想要煽动的恐惧，反之亦然。）
更早的时候，战争的破坏性较小，因为武器没有那么强大，但是今天的核时代一场战争会导致整个人类的毁灭，而这些国家知道这一点，没有人希望这种事情发生。世界已经经历了足够多的战争，知道战争能做什么。
没有人能说绝对不可能爆发战争，但是可能性非常小，全世界都在关注，还有其他强大的国家将确保战争不会发生，特别是两个有核国家之间如印度和中国。

Suraj Singh, UPSCAspirant (2017-present)
Answered Aug 14
Do not go for newschannels and rhetoric of diplomats to consider the any probability of warbetween India nd China that's not gonna happen .Everywar that had happenedearlier between any countries that had happened for particular reasons eitherevident of secret. 
As far as theIndia China case is concerned it's not the first stand off case but theunstable globalsituations nd current increasing nationalism in both countriesas well as media has made this situation noticable to all. OBOR , CPEC, SOUTHCHINA SEA CONFLICT ,ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IN CHINA, all these reasons are beingconnected to this stand off but that's more of media creations not the reality.Undefined boundaries create these kind of situations but war is not even theminiscule possibility. 
Both countries cannot survive the war leaving the topic who will win .China will loose its globalinfluence nd India its growth ,nd many more adverse effects not difficult topredict .as far sovereignty is concerned when the area is not clear defined ithas its own limits to cause the war. 
Better hope fordiplomatic solution to resolve this stand off .

不要以新闻频道和外交辞令来考虑印度和中国之间任何发生战争的可能性。每一场发生在任何国家之间的战争，都是由于某些特殊原因而发生的，或者是显而易见的秘密。
就印度中国而言，这不是第一个孤立的例子，但不稳定的全球局势和当前在两国和媒体上日益高涨的民族主义，使这种情况得到了所有人的关注。一带一路，CPEC，南中国海的冲突，中国经济放缓，所有这些原因都与此相关，但更多的是媒编造而不是现实。未定义的边界制造了这种情况，但战争是最小的可能。 
远离那个谁将赢得战争的话题吧，这两个国家都无法在这场战争中幸存下来。中国将会失去它的全球影响力，印度将失去它的经济增长，更多的负面影响并不难预测。 
希望通过外交办法解决这一问题。