【《国家利益》·深层国家专题报道】（下部） [美国媒体]

The 'Deep State' Is No Supervillain

【《国家利益》·深层国家专题报道之六】“深层国家”绝对不是超级恶棍

 

The encroaching “deep state” was a program carried out in broad daylight by Bill Clinton and George Bush, Tony Blair and centrist European leaders.

步步渗透的“深层国家”是由比尔·克林顿、乔治·布什、托尼·布莱尔和欧洲中间派领导人在光天化日之下实施的一项计划。

NOT SINCE Andrew Johnson during Reconstruction has an American president been as embattled or divisive as Donald Trump. But for all the sound and fury, the claim that Trump is the victim of a “deep state” conspiracy to reverse the result of the election of 2016 is unpersuasive.

自美国重建时期的安德鲁·约翰逊以来，美国总统一直都没有像唐纳德·特朗普那样陷入被重重包围或分裂的境地。但是，尽管各种的声音和愤怒，认为特朗普是意图颠覆2016年选举结果的“深层国家”阴谋的受害者的说法是不具备说服力的。

Political scientists often divide explanations of democratic politics in the United States and similar nations among theories of pluralism, state autonomy and elitism. The pluralist theory holds that the American elite, like the population, is divided among competing centers of power and authority with different values and interests. The state-autonomy theory holds that government agencies and military and intelligence organizations are independent actors in politics. The elitist theory holds that in most democracies most of the time, no matter how many political parties there may be, there is a dominant elite, which includes most of the leaders of politics, the economy and civil society and shares a broad consensus.

在美国和其他的类似国家中，政治学家经常在多元论、国家自治和精英主义的理论中对民主政治的阐释产生分期。多元主义者的理论认为，美国的精英阶层就像普罗大众一样，在力量和权力的竞争中心中有着不同的价值观和利益。国家自治理论则认为，政府机构、军事和情报机构是政治上的独立参与者。精英理论认为，在大多数民主国家，无论它们有多少个政党，都拥有一个占统治地位的精英，其中包括了政治、经济和公民社会的大多数领导人，并享有广泛的共识。

There have always been societies in which the state-autonomy thesis is accurate. The aristocratic German officer corps formed a state within a state in Bismarck’s imperial Germany and helped to destabilize the Weimar Republic and install Hitler. Autonomous militaries, sometimes reactionary and sometimes progressive, have often acted as kingmakers in Latin America, Africa and Asia. The term “deep state” was originally used in the context of the role of Turkey’s military in protecting Kemalist secularism from Muslim populism. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an, that may be a thing of the past in Turkey, but in Egypt under President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the military today is playing a similar role.

国家自治的命题得到准确阐述的社会是始终存在的。德国贵族军官团在俾斯麦的德意志帝国内建立了一个国家，推动了魏玛共和国陷入不稳定的状态，并将希特勒扶上了台。在拉丁美洲、非洲和亚洲，独立自主的军队有时是反动的，有时则是进步的。“深层国家”一词最初是在土耳其军队保护凯末尔主义者的世俗主义和穆斯林民粹主义的背景下得到使用的。在埃尔多安总统的领导下，这在土耳其可能已经成为过去，但是在塞西总统统治之下的埃及，如今的军队也在扮演着类似的角色。

Nothing similar exists in the United States. For one thing, the U.S. military is fairly representative of American society in general, down to views of Donald Trump. Trump’s popularity is greatest among working-class Americans and lowest among educated American elites. This is faithfully reflected in the military, where according to a Military Times poll in the fall of 2017 only 30 percent of officers approve of Trump, while nearly half of enlisted personnel approve of him. Within the military, Trump is far less popular among nonwhites and women than among white men, as in the nation as a whole.

美国并不存在着任何类似的情况。首先，美国军方在总体上是美国社会的代表，它对唐纳德·特朗普的看法是不一样的。特朗普在美国工薪阶层中最受欢迎，在受过教育的美国精英中的受欢迎程度则是最低。这在军队中得到了切实的反映，根据《军事时报》在2017年秋季的民意调查，只有30%的军官支持特朗普，但是有近一半的士兵支持他。在军队内部，特朗普在非白人和女性中的受欢迎程度远不及白人男性，而在整个国家中也是如此。

Far from having a separate worldview, high-level U.S. military and intelligence and diplomatic officials tend to share the consensus of the broader American elite—favoring free trade and higher levels of immigration, paying at least lip service to diversity, and with a corporate code of manners based on politeness and emphasizing apparently neutral PowerPoint analysis. Trump’s America First nationalism and his style offend the ideology and the sense of propriety of all American institutional elites, military and civilian, corporate and nonprofit.

美国军队高级官员、情报官员和外交官员远没有具备独立的世界观，他们倾向于认同更为广泛的美国精英所达成的共识——支持自由贸易和更高水平的移民，至少在口头上的多样性，以及基于礼貌以及对显然居于中立立场的演示文稿分析的强调的集体性行为准则。特朗普的美国优先民族主义和他的风格冒犯了所有的美国机构精英、军队、平民、企业和非营利组织的意识形态和礼节。

Supporters of the idea of a deep-state coup against Trump can point to the role of officials of the FBI and CIA and their allies and informants in leaking information damaging to the Trump campaign and presidency, including the notorious Russian dossier. But this too is nothing new. FBI agent Mark Felt was the “Deep Throat” source of journalistic revelations during the Watergate crisis. The deep-state theory requires more than that highly placed members of the clandestine services now and then leak incriminating material to partisan allies; it requires that the clandestine services have a corporate identity and agenda distinct from that of other elites in society. This is not the case in America, where national-security elites tend to share a broad moderate-Republican/centrist-Democrat consensus.

支持存在着反对特朗普的深层国家政变的人们可以指摘联邦调查局、中央情报局以及它们的盟友和情报人员在泄露对特朗普的竞选活动和总统任期造成损害的信息——其中包括臭名昭着的俄罗斯档案——过程中所扮演的角色。但这也不是什么新鲜事。在水门事件期间，联邦调查局特工马克·菲尔特是揭露这一新闻的“深喉”来源。深层国家理论需要的不仅仅是那些得到高度评价的为之进行秘密效力的成员——他们过去和现在都在向党派盟友泄漏可以导致他们被定罪的材料；它要求秘密为之效力的成员具备集体认同感和不同于社会中的其他精英的议程。但是在美国，情况并非如此——这个国家的国家安全精英们倾向于认同一种广泛存在于温和派共和党人和中间派民主党人当中的共识。

In my view, the elitist approach best explains the Trump phenomenon, along with contemporary populism on both sides of the Atlantic. Since the end of the Cold War, highly homogeneous social elites in North America and Europe have liberated themselves from the constraints of the institutions that restrained them between 1945 and 1989—institutions including strong labor unions, grassroots political parties and, in the United States, a distinct Southern oligarchy that by now has largely lost its identity and power and has been absorbed into the national ruling class.

在我看来，精英主义的方法最好地解释了特朗普现象，以及大西洋两岸的当代民粹主义。自冷战结束以来，高度同质化的社会精英在北美和欧洲让自己挣脱了机构的束缚——这种束缚在1945年和1989年之间约束着他们。这些机构包括强大的工会、基层政党，在美国还包括了一个独特的南部寡头群体——尽管它到现在已经在很大程度上失去了身份和权力，被吸收进了国家统治等级。

Elites in the United States, Britain, Germany and other Western nations under post–Cold War leadership have deliberately weakened the bargaining power of workers in their nations by a combination of austerity-induced unemployment, offshoring, permitting Western-controlled corporations to play nation-states against one another and mass low-skilled immigration, creating a low-wage “reserve army of labor” in Western countries.

美国、英国、德国和其他西方国家的精英在冷战后的领导层之下通过严峻的失业局面、离岸外包、允许西方掌控的公司扮演彼此对抗的民族国家角色、大规模无技术工人的移民、在西方国家建立一个低工资的“劳动力储备库”来故意削弱工人在他们国家的议价能力。

While restructuring the global economy to crush organized labor, transatlantic elites have simultaneously restructured government to minimize democratic accountability, by shifting decisionmaking from legislatures to executive and judicial agencies within the nation-state, and by enabling treaties and transnational agencies like the European Union, which are more insulated from voters, to replace or modify national statutory law. In both of the cases of anti-worker economic restructuring and de-democratization, American and European oligarchs have claimed that a mysterious, unstoppable force called “globalization” compelled them to do what they wanted to do anyway.

虽然全球经济重组冲击了有组织的劳工，但是跨大西洋的精英们同时通过在民族国家内将决策过程从立法机构转移到行政和司法机构，对政府进行了重组——此举是为了将民主问责制的影响降到最低，以及通过让协议和像欧盟这样的跨国机构——它们更加绝缘于投票者——拥有效力来取代或修改国家的成文法。在反工人经济结构调整和反民主化的两种情况下，美国和欧洲的寡头们声称，一种叫做“全球化”的神秘的、不可阻挡的力量迫使他们去做他们想做的事情。

This post–Cold War oligarchic revolution from above might be described as a conspiracy, but it is not a secret conspiracy perpetrated by the deep state. It was a program carried out in broad daylight by Bill Clinton and George Bush, Tony Blair and centrist European leaders. And it succeeded in its two goals of weakening the economic leverage and political power of the working-class majorities in the United States, the UK and other Western nations.

这一冷战后的寡头政治革命可能被形容为一场阴谋，但这不是一个深层国家所编制的秘密阴谋。这是一个由比尔·克林顿、乔治布什、托尼布莱尔和欧洲中间派领导人在光天化日之下实施的计划。它成功地达成了两个目标，也就是削弱美国、英国和其他西方国家的工人阶级主体的经济影响力和政治力量。

The populist rebellions of the second decade of the twenty-first century, which have been led by right-wing tribunes like Trump or left-wing demagogues like Sanders and Corbyn, can only be understood as a long-delayed reaction by populations to the replacement of the cross-class compromises of the post–World War II period by untrammeled oligarchy. America’s newly empowered ruling class has closed ranks against Trump, but it would also close ranks against any other outsider president who challenged its post–Cold War dominance of American society, including Bernie Sanders.

二十一世纪第二个十年的民粹主义的叛乱——它已由像特朗普这样的右翼护民官或像桑德斯和科尔宾这样的左翼煽动家所领导——只能被理解为民众对二战后时期自由自在的寡头等级所作出的跨阶级妥协被取代的拖延已久的反应。美国新近掌权的统治阶层已经团结一致地反对特朗普，但它也将会团结一致地反对任何一个挑战其在美国社会后战后的主导权的局外人总统，这也包括伯尼·桑德斯。

Deep divide? Yes. Deep state? No.

是否存在深层的分裂？是的。但是否存在深层国家呢？不。

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The 'Deep State' Conspiracy Is a Joke

【《国家利益》·深层国家专题报道之七】“深层国家”的阴谋是一个玩笑

 

From the Masons to UFOs, Americans have loved mysteries.

从共济会到不明飞行物，美国人向来喜欢神秘的事物。

IT IS unclear when the Deep State was created, or created itself. The moment of creation, however, almost certainly took shape in the twentieth century. Candidates for creating the Deep State, or permitting it to create itself, are Franklin Roosevelt or Harry Truman: Roosevelt for domestic purposes, Truman for international purposes.

目前还不清楚深层国家是什么时候被建立的，或者是它自己出现的。然而，它的出现几乎可以肯定是在二十世纪。深层国家可能的创建者，或者说允许它自行出现的人是富兰克林·罗斯福或哈里·杜鲁门：罗斯福是出于国内的目的，而杜鲁门则是出于国际目的。

As a machine that runs itself, its members almost certainly are senior career civil servants in every cabinet department and agency. That means, at least, fifteen cabinet departments and anywhere from seven to fifteen principal agencies. To be effective, the minimum number of Deep State members must be at least a hundred per department and agency. Thus, the core of the Deep State would be in the neighborhood of two or three thousand individuals. It therefore seems almost indisputable that they wield immense and largely unchecked influence.

作为一台能够自我运行的机器，它的成员几乎可以肯定包括了每个内阁部门和机构的高级职业公务员。这意味着它至少涉及到了15个内阁部门，以及7个到15个的主要机构。为了有效运作，每个部门和机构必须至少有一百名深层国家成员。如此说来，深层国家的核心是一个2到3千人的群体。因此，几乎无可争辩的是，他们的影响力非常巨大，而且几乎没有受到任何影响。

Over time, senior officials retire and must be replaced. If this mysterious State arose under Roosevelt, then there must have been over time some tens of thousands of secret members of the Deep State.

随着时间的推移，在高级官员退休的时候，他们必须被替换。如果这个神秘的国家在罗斯福的统治之下崛起，那么现在一定会有成千上万的深层国家的秘密成员。

Were they required to take an oath of secrecy to join this covert government? That must have been part of the arrangement; otherwise one book, not to say a whole library, would have been published by now describing in thrilling detail how it all works.

他们是否需要经过秘密宣誓才能加入这个秘密的政府？这一定是安排的一部分；否则，一定会有描述它是如何运作的耸人听闻的细节的一本书——即便不是一整个图书馆的书——被出版。

Perhaps the Deep State has enforcers who take care of those who squeal. Great research question: how many members or former members of the Deep State met untimely and violent deaths?

也许深层国家有负责料理那些大惊小怪的人的执行者。一个重大的研究问题是：有多少成员或前成员曾经遭遇到了过早的暴力死亡事件？

And where has the Washington press corps been all these years? Anyone remember a Pulitzer Prize for uncovering the Deep State right under their noses?

这些年来华盛顿的记者团都在哪里？有人记得有任何一名记者因为揭露了他们鼻子底下的深层国家而获得普利策奖吗？

Amazing that it took President Donald Trump, who had never participated in government or spent much time in Washington, to reveal this secret. Perhaps he is waiting for the appropriate moment to document the existence of the Deep State and its membership.

令人惊讶的是，唐纳德·特朗普从未从政，也没有在华盛顿呆过很长时间，他揭露了这个秘密。也许他在等待合适的时机来记录这个深层国家及其成员的存在。

Perhaps not.

也有可能不会。

As a veteran of a few years’ service at the U.S. Departments of Justice and Interior, I can testify that there was little evidence of Deep State activity. Almost to a person, the career civil servants were intelligent, diligent, hardworking and highly knowledgeable about their responsibilities. They could, of course, have been sly devils meeting in the furnace room after hours, passing out assignments for subverting the current administration. How were we to know?

作为一名在美国司法部和内政部任职多年的资深人士，我可以证明，几乎不存在任何表明深层国家活动的证据。几乎对一个人来说，职业公务员是聪明、勤勉、肯干、对自己的责任有着高度了解的一群人。当然，他们可能会在几个小时后在锅炉房里开会，分配颠覆现政府的任务。我们怎么知道呢？

Believers in the Deep State surely hold open the possibility that the Russian government and its FSB have known about this all along. They would, of course, have passed on what they know to their new friend, but circumstances being what they are, he would be foreclosed from employing them as his principal source of intelligence. Speaking of which, Deep State members must be all over the dozen-and-a-half agencies in the intelligence community.

相信深层国家存在的人当然对俄罗斯政府及其联邦安全局一直以来都知道这一点的可能性持开放态度。当然，他们会把他们知道的东西传递给他们的新朋友，但情况就是这样的，他会因为把他们当作主要的情报来源而被消灭。说到这一点，深层国家的成员必然遍布情报界的所有半官方机构。

From the Masons to UFOs, Americans have loved mysteries. Once it was established that George Washington was a Mason, among other Founders, we have let that mystery go. There are still those pesky UFOs that somehow pop up, much like Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr.’s cycles of American history, every twenty or thirty years.

从共济会到不明飞行物，美国人向来喜欢神秘的事物。一旦确定乔治·华盛顿是一个共济会成员，跻身其创建者之列，我们就会让这个谜团消失。还有一些令人讨厌的不明飞行物，就像小亚瑟·史列辛格所提出的美国历史周期论一样，它们每隔20年或30年不知怎么地就会出现了。

Kurt Anderson’s new book calls this Fantasyland, and the Deep State has its own neighborhood there.

库尔特·安德森的新书称这个幻想世界和这个深层国家有着它自己的“邻居”。

If you are out to practice the politics of distraction, how better to do it than to place a bright spotlight on the Deep State? And it has the added advantage of nourishing and feeding the “base,” as well as accounting for unfulfilled campaign promises.

如果你想要去践行分散注意力的政治，有什么做法比把聚光灯对准深层国家更好呢？此外，它还有一个额外的优势，那就是滋养和喂养“基层”，以及为未兑现的竞选承诺充当替罪羊。

Where is P. T. Barnum when we need him? But wait, perhaps we have him after all—and he is the consummate ringmaster.

当我们需要费尼尔司·泰勒·巴纳姆的时候，他在哪里呢？但是等一下，也许我们终究已经拥有了他，而他是一个完美的表演指导者。

——————————————

Trump's War on the Deep State

【《国家利益》·深层国家专题报道之八】特朗普对深层国家的战争

 

IN WASHINGTON now, the "deep state" generally means officially nonpartisan and politically inactive people who are in and near government, and are in practice partisan and often hyperactive in their opposition to the administration. This sort of thing occurs to some degree in almost every administration, but is rare once new administrations have settled in and installed loyalists in all key positions. In contentious times, during rending national controversies and after a radical change of administration, and especially when there is widespread media hostility to an administration, the phenomenon is more noticeable. In living memory, the most egregious antics of the deep state-widespread efforts to disrupt and discredit the administration-have been in the presidencies of Richard Nixon and Donald Trump.

在华盛顿，"深层国家"通常指的是那些身处政府当中和周边的无党派人士和政治上不活跃的人，而且在事实上他们是有党派的，在针对政府的反对活动中是极度活跃的。这种事情在几乎每届政府中都有发生，但一旦新政府安顿下来并在所有关键岗位上任命了忠诚分子，这种情况就很少见了。在充满争议的时期，在具有分列型的国家争议期间和政府进行彻底变革之后，尤其是当媒体对政府的敌意在不断蔓延的时候，这种现象就更加明显了。在人们的记忆中，深层国家最为过分的滑稽动作--广泛存在的瓦解政府和挫败政府公信力的行为--是发生在尼克松和唐纳德·特朗普的总统任期内。

The two sets of circumstances are easily distinguishable. Nixon came to office in 1969 and was the first president since Zachary Taylor in 1848 not to have his party in control of either house of Congress when he was inaugurated. North Vietnam had made it clear in its rejection of President Johnson's 1966 Manila offer of joint withdrawal that Hanoi sought the complete humiliation of the United States. If Ho Chi Minh's ambition was simply to unite North and South Vietnam, he would have accepted Johnson's offer, waited the decent interval and reinvaded with no danger that the United States would plunge once more into that quagmire. Nixon inherited the Democrats' war in Vietnam and preferred to extract the United States while trying to preserve a possibility for the survival of a non-communist regime in Saigon. For declining simply to surrender all Indochina to the tender mercies of the North Vietnamese, the Vietcong, and the Khmer Rouge and Pathet Lao, Nixon was undercut and harassed by advocates of defeat and shame in Vietnam, many of whom, like Daniel Ellsberg, had been happy enough to escalate the war before becoming activist advocates of the virtues and moral necessity of American defeat.

这两种情况很容易加以区分。1969年上台的尼克松是自1848年的扎卡里·泰勒以来的第一个在他宣誓就职的时候他的政党未能控制国会两院中的任何一个的总统。北越在拒绝美国总统约翰逊1966年提出的共同撤军计划时明确表示，河内方面希望彻底地羞辱美国。如果胡志明的雄心仅仅是团结南北越南，他就会接受约翰逊的提议，等待合适的幕间休息时间的到来，再重新入侵，这样做就没有任何危险，美国将会再次陷入泥潭。尼克松继承了民主党在越南的战争，想要榨干美国的每一份力量，与此同时在西贡保留一个非共产主义政权存的可能性。仅仅因为拒绝将全部的印度支那地区交给北越、越共、红色高棉和巴特寮(老挝左翼民族主义集团)，尼克松为那些鼓吹在越南的失败和羞辱的人所攻击和厌倦，他们中的许多人--像丹尼尔·埃尔斯伯格--在成为鼓吹美国失败的德性和道德必要性的积极活动者之前都很高兴能够升级战争。

Nixon's legal problems ramped up over his mishandling of Watergate. It was essentially caused by hawkish zealots in the administration and the Republican National Committee engaging in amateurish and ill-considered counter-harassment of antiwar activist members of a Democratic Party that simply wanted to leave Vietnam at once "by plane and by boat." As the president became vulnerable, the whole administration became a seething hotbed of enemies of Nixon, leaking his tax returns and reams of secret documents and intelligence about Vietnam and other matters. There has never been any conclusive evidence that Nixon himself committed illegalities, but members of his entourage did, and executive authority evaporated by the week. Nixon, patriot as he was, resigned rather than subject the country to an impeachment trial. The deep state won; Congress cut off all aid to South Vietnam; it fell to the communists and millions died. The disaster was complete, and part of the legacy has surely been a relative inferiority in the quality of candidates for high public office since then, the coarsening of political discourse and increased cynicism of the political press, and the intoxication of federal politicians with the high-stakes game of criminalizing policy differences. None of it shows any signs of ending. Quite the contrary.

尼克松对水门事件的处理不当让他所遭遇到的法律问题不断升级。这实际上是由致力于对民主党的反战积极分子--他们只想着"达成飞机和船只"立即离开越南--实施业余的和不成熟的反制骚扰活动的政府和共和党全国委员会的鹰派狂热分子所引起的。当总统变得脆弱时，整个政府就成了尼克松敌人火热的温床，他的纳税申报表、大量的秘密文件和关于越南和其他事务的情报都被泄露了出来。从来没有确凿的证据表明尼克松本人实施了非法行为，但他的随从人员却这么做了，而行政权力在一周之内就消失殆尽。尼克松虽然是爱国者，但他宁可辞职也不愿屈从于国家，接受弹劾审判。深层国家获得了胜利；国会切断了对南越的所有援助；它落入了共产党人之手，导致了数百万人死亡。这场灾难结束了，但是其遗产的一部分自此之后必然在高级公职的候选人的质量、政治讨论的粗俗化、政治媒体与日俱增的犬儒主义以及喜欢对政治分歧予以定罪的高风险游戏中的联邦政客的自我陶醉中居于劣势。这些都没有显示出任何结束的迹象。真的是截然相反。

This is why Donald Trump went to war against the entire political class: all factions of both parties, the bureaucracy, the national media, the lobbyists, Hollywood and Wall Street. He said the whole system was rotten and had failed the nation: hopeless wars that accomplished nothing except the wastage of thousands of lives and trillions of dollars, the extension of Iranian influence and an immense humanitarian crisis, a flatlined economy, a shrinking workforce, increasing poverty and crime, oceans of debt, large trade deficits from trade agreements that exported unemployment to the United States and the unmonitored influx of millions of illiterate peasants from Latin America. He ran nearly three million votes behind his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, though he won the Electoral College clearly enough, and 96 percent of the 312,000 votes cast in the District of Columbia were against him. Almost everyone of influence in the country, including virtually all the Congress of both parties, was opposed to him. For the first nine months of the new administration, there was the constant confected threat of impeachment. The phantasmagorical imbecility that Trump had somehow colluded and connived with the Russian government to rig the election was the excuse of the hapless Clinton and her Trump-hating echo chamber in the national media for the election result.

这就是为什么唐纳德·特朗普与整个政治阶层开战的原因：两党的各个派系、官僚机构、国家媒体、说客、好莱坞和华尔街。他说整个系统都很烂，整个国家都失败了：绝望的战争--除了收割成千上万人的生命、浪费数万亿美元的资金之外，它什么也没有得到--伊朗影响力的扩张和一场巨大的人道主义危机、经济的停滞、劳动力的萎缩、贫穷和犯罪行为的增加、海量的债务、贸易协定所导致的巨额贸易赤字--它将失业现象出口到了美国，导致了拉丁美洲数以百万计不识字的农民的涌入。他几乎落后其民主党的对手希拉里·克林顿三百万票，尽管他以明显的优势赢得了选举人团的选票，但是在哥伦比亚特区的312,000张选票中，有96%是反对他的。这个国家中几乎所有有影响力的人物--包括国会两党的所有议员--都反对他。在新政府运作的前9个月里，始终存在着弹劾的威胁。关于特朗普与俄罗斯政府相勾结以赢得大选的变化无常的愚蠢言论是不走运的克林顿和她的仇恨特朗普的应声虫们在全国性媒体上为选举结果所找的借口而已。

The deep state was almost the whole state, and it pitched in to sabotage the administration. For nearly that long, the Republican leaders sat on their hands waiting to see if he would be impeached or not. His nominees were a long time in being confirmed. There were leaks of White House conversations, including with foreign leaders-outright acts of insubordination causing Trump, a decisive executive, to fire some fairly high officials, including the malign director of the FBI, who then informed Congress that he had leaked a self-addressed memo (probably illegally, as it was technically government property), in order to have a special prosecutor named to torment the president over the fatuous Russian allegations, although Comey testified that Trump himself was not a target or suspect and the Russians had not influenced the outcome of the election. (This was a sober position compared to the wholesale fabrications of the Democratic vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Mark Warner, that a thousand Russian agents had swarmed the key battleground states and had delivered Wisconsin to Trump.)

这个深度国家几乎就是整个国家，它在暗中破坏了政府。在几乎这么长的时间里，共和党领导人一直不给予支持，而是等着看他是否会被弹劾。他所提名的就任者的确认程序已经花掉了很长时间了。这一时期出现了白宫对话被泄漏事件--包括与外国领导人的对话--这是一种彻底的反抗行为。它导致了特朗普--一个果断的执行者--炒掉了一些高官，其中包括充满恶意的联邦调查局局长--他后来告知国会自己曾经泄漏了一份备忘录 (可能是非法的，因为它在技术层面来说是政府财产)，目的是让一个意在在愚蠢的通俄门事件上折磨总统的特别检察官获得任命，尽管科米作证说特朗普本身并不是怀疑目标，俄罗斯人也没有影响到选举的结果。(与参议院情报委员会的民主党人副主席马克·沃纳的大规模捏造行为--他声称有一千名俄罗斯特工涌入了关键的选举州，并让特朗普赢得了威斯康星州的选举--相比，他还算保持着清醒的立场。)

The president has strengthened the White House staff. The FBI and Justice Department have been ripped apart in their partisanship and misuse of the dossier on which the collusion argument and the surveillance of the Trump campaign were based. And the dossier, a pastiche of falsehoods from gossips in the Kremlin, has been exposed as a smear job paid for by the Clinton campaign and Democratic National Committee, and the whole impeachment movement has collapsed. The hunters are the prey and Trump will prosecute, sack, or intimidate the deep state. But it is there, can arise quickly and can be very dangerous. Forewarned is forearmed.

总统加强了白宫的人员配备。美国联邦调查局和司法部在他们的党派问题和滥用档案的问题--正是在此基础上才出现了通俄门的指控和对特朗普竞选活动的监视。而这份档案作为克里姆林宫里的流言蜚语的一种谎言拼盘，被曝光证明是克林顿竞选班子和民主党全国委员会进行的抹黑，整个的弹劾行动已经土崩瓦解。捕猎者就是猎物，特朗普将起诉、解雇或威胁到深层国家。但它在那里，会很快浮出水面，而且是非常危险的。俗话说的好，有备无患。

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We've Seen This Deep-State Story Before

【《国家利益》·深层国家专题报道之九】我们此前曾见过这种深层国家的故事

 

IS THERE a secret club, society, or cabal that manipulates the organs of power and public opinion in opposition to the will of a democratically elected political leadership? If so, it’s a “deep state.” If not, it’s a myth.

是否存在着一个操纵权力和舆论、反对民主选举产生的政治领导人的意愿的秘密俱乐部、社团或阴谋集团？如果存在的话，那它就是一个“深层国家”。如果不存在的话，那它就是一个神话。

As a boy in the early 1950s, I learned about a widely feared attempt to take over America by communists, “fellow-travelers” and “dupes” who seemed to have been infiltrating our government, press, movies, schools and churches. Both the Roosevelt and Truman administrations, we were told, had become hotbeds of communist traitors intent on subverting the capital of the free world. A few years later, it was just a myth.

上世纪50年代初，当我还是个孩子的时候，我知道了一种被共产主义者、“共产党同情者”和“上当受骗者”占领美国的可怕企图，这些人似乎渗透进了我们的政府、媒体、电影、学校和教堂。我们被告知，罗斯福和杜鲁门政府都是共产主义叛徒的温床，他们意图颠覆自由世界的首都。几年后，这被证明只是一个神话。

As a student at Harvard in January 1961, I heard President Dwight Eisenhower’s farewell warning against the corrupting influence of the military-industrial complex as “a potential enemy of the national interest.” Public policy, he said, could become the “captive of a scientific-technological elite.” Eisenhower had just seen Sen. John Kennedy wage a successful campaign against Vice President Richard Nixon by hyping the threat of a fictional “missile gap” that had been imagined and spread by intelligence agencies, defense intellectuals and public-opinion leaders in the media, Congress, the armed forces and military industries. Eisenhower’s misgivings were often echoed in antiwar protests until the Vietnam War ended in 1975.

1961年1月，作为哈佛大学的一名学生，我听到了德怀特·艾森豪威尔总统的告别警告：他将军工联合体的腐败影响称为“国家利益的潜在敌人”。他说，公共政策可能会成为“科技精英的俘虏”。艾森豪威尔之前刚刚目睹了参议员约翰·肯尼迪通过情报机构、防务知识分子和媒体中的公共意见领袖臆造和传播虚构的“导弹差距”威胁，成功地打击了副总统理查德·尼克松。

But then, in 2003, Americans were misled by the George W. Bush administration into invading Iraq to rid it of weapons that many in the national-security establishment, and its enablers in the media, such as the New York Times’ Judith Miller, mistakenly believed it had or was about to obtain. The result was that a new “deep state” emerged for them to suspect of perfidious designs at home and abroad.

但是到了2003年，美国人被乔治·布什政府所误导，入侵了伊拉克，以除掉国家安全机构建制派中的许多成员以及媒体中的促成者——如纽约时报的朱迪思·米勒所错误相信的伊拉克已经或者即将获得的武器。其结果是，一个为他们怀疑国内外各种讨厌的格局的新的“深层国家”应运而生了。

So it goes. A short-lived, right-wing crusade against a supposedly stealthy, hostile takeover; a long, left-wing campaign against military industrialists and anticommunist warriors; and a consensus concocted by those in power for a needlessly damaging war. All three events left a lasting impression on American democracy.

所以它就此得到了发展。一场反对想象中的秘密的、充满敌意的占领行动的短暂的、右翼的十字军运动；一场反对军事工业家和反共产主义战士的长期的左翼斗争；那些当权者为了一场毫无必要的破坏性战争而炮制的共识。这三个事件给美国民主制度留下了持久的影响。

But that’s not the end. Since 2016, we’ve seen the emergence of a new and different version of the “deep state”: an anti-Russian, anti-Trump network of federal investigators, media opinion makers and congressional publicity seekers, posing as champions of the American way.

但这并不是最终的结果。自2016年以来，我们看到了一个全新的、不同版本的“深层国家”的出现：一个摆出了美国方式支持者姿态的反俄、反特朗普的联邦调查员网络、媒体舆论炮制者和国会宣传者。

This will turn out to be as much a chimera as its first precursor, led by Sen. Joe McCarthy and Donald Trump’s former counselor Roy Cohn. Still, American politicians won’t stop seeking electoral advantage by fostering and exploiting popular beliefs that opponents of the national interest, or even enemies of the people, have occupied key positions in the government, media and other institutions.

这将会被证明是如同由参议员乔·麦卡锡和唐纳德·特朗普的前幕僚罗伊·科恩所引领的首个先驱机构一样的嵌合体。尽管如此，美国的政客们还是不会停止通过培养和利用民众的信仰来寻求选举优势，他们认为反对国家利益的人，甚至是人民的敌人，已经占据了政府、媒体和其他机构的关键职位。

But, notwithstanding lapses of vigilance or intelligence, the electorate will eventually figure out what news is truly fake.

但是，尽管存在着警戒或情报方面的失误，选民们最终还是会发现什么才是真正的假新闻。