中国、日本对购入美国国债也表现各异 [美国媒体]

China, Japan diverge on US Treasuries, too

中国、日本对购入美国国债也表现各异

Policy uncertainty in Washington may force a rethink of Beijing’s buying spree

华盛顿的政策不确定性可能迫使北京方面重新考虑抢购美国国债。


  
An unknown quantity: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell arrives to take the oath of office at the Federal Reserve in Washington on February 5, 2018. Photo: Reuters/Aaron P. Bernstein

一个未知数：美国联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于2018年2月5日在华盛顿宣誓就职。图片：路透社/亚伦·P·伯恩斯坦

Japan versus China intrigue now extends to US Treasury holdings, too.

日本对抗中国的阴谋现在也延伸到了美国国债。

In 2017, Japanese holdings of dollar-denominated government debt fell roughly $30 billion. China, meanwhile, couldn’t seem to get enough of Uncle Sam’s IOUs, adding about $127 billion – the biggest jump since 2010.

在2017年，日本持有的以美元计价的美国政府债券下降了差不多300亿美元。与此同时，中国似乎无法满足于山姆大叔的欠条，又增购了约1270亿美债——这是自2010年以来的最大涨幅。

What gives? In China’s case, it’s all about capping a rising yuan. But Japan’s rationale for stemming purchases – policy uncertainty in Washington – is the more important dynamic on which to keep an eye. China is almost sure to follow Tokyo’s lead.

到底发生了什么事？先看中国这边的情况，这一切都是为了抑制人民币升值。但日本抑制购买美债的理由——华盛顿方面的政策不确定性——是其保持警惕的更重要的动力。中国很可能会跟随东京方面的脚步。

One immediate question mark for Tokyo is Federal Reserve leadership. Rather than reappoint the widely-respected Janet Yellen, US President Donald Trump opted to install his own chairman. Jerome Powell will testify before Congress on Feb. 28, but for the most part, the new Fed leader is an unknown quantity to Japan’s foreign-exchange reserve managers. The recent jumps in US wage and inflation data make the Powell Fed a complete wildcard for Washington’s bankers in Asia.

对东京方面来说，一个迫在眉睫的问题在于美联储的领导层。美国总统唐纳德•特朗普没有再次任命备受尊敬的珍妮特•耶伦为美联储主席，而是选择了任命他自己的美联储主席。杰罗姆•鲍威尔将于2月28日向国会作证，但在很大程度上，对日本外汇储备管理人员来说这位新任美联储领导人就是个未知数。最近美国工资水平和通胀数据的跃升，使得鲍威尔成为了华盛顿银行家们在亚洲的一张完全的“百搭牌”。

Another: Trump’s trade war threats dull the appeal of upping governments’ exposure to US debt. On Jan. 25, Trump’s Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, declared dead Washington’s 23-year-old strong-dollar policy. Trump’s recent tariffs on solar panels and washing machines are probably the first wave of broader moves to turn the trade tables in America’s direction. There’s also talk of vague “reciprocal taxes” even on what Trump calls “so-called allies.” No one knows for sure what Trump intends here.

另一个原因是：特朗普的贸易战威胁削弱了政府增购美国国债的吸引力。1月25日，特朗普的财政部长史蒂芬·努钦，宣告了华盛顿方面长达23年的强势美元政策的死刑。特朗普政府最近对太阳能电池板和洗衣机征收的关税，很可能仅是美国贸易方向转变的更广泛举措的第一波冲击。甚至对于特朗普称之为“所谓的盟友”，也有“互惠税收”的含糊传闻。没有人确切知道特朗普的意图。

Many sizable holders of US Treasuries, including Belgium, are taking a wait-and-see approach. Tokyo, it appears, isn’t. Trump, remember, often conflates Japan and China together as if they are similar threats to US jobs. Never mind that Toyota, Honda and Mazda employ millions of Americans in states like Alabama and Tennessee. In Trump’s worldview, Asia is one giant, homogenous job terminator.

包括比利时在内的许多美国国债的大规模持有者都持观望态度。东京，似乎不是。记住，特朗普经常把日本和中国相提并论，就好像他们对美国就业构成了同样的威胁。不要提丰田、本田和马自达在阿拉巴马和田纳西等州雇佣了数百万美国人。在特朗普的世界观中，亚洲是一个巨大的、纯种的就业岗位掠夺者。

North Korea’s exploits raise the stakes. Irked that Beijing isn’t curbing Kim Jong-un’s nuclear ambitious, Trump is almost sure to lash out soon. What better way to divert attention from Trump’s scandals than a trade brawl? Japan and the rest of Asia would be collateral damage.

朝鲜的核武开发也增加了赌注。鉴于北京方面没有限制金正恩的核野心，特朗普肯定很快会猛烈抨击。还有什么比打贸易战更好的办法，来转移人们对特朗普丑闻的关注呢？日本和亚洲其他国家将受到连带损害。

China, what’s more, appears to be turning on Treasuries, last year’s splurge notwithstanding. Last month, Beijing said it’s considering slowing or halting dollar buying as part of a review process. As Washington borrows $1.5 trillion for a tax cut the economy doesn’t need, Asia has valid reasons to worry.

更重要的是，中国似乎又正转向美国国债，尽管去年大肆抛售了不少美债。上个月，北京方面表示，正在考虑放缓或停止购买美元，以作为审查过程的一部分。当美国政府因其经济发展不需要的减税政策，而可能背上1.5万亿美元赤字的时候，亚洲是有正当理由担心的。

Beijing has harbored such concerns in the past. In March 2009, for example, then-Premier Wen Jiabao worried Washington’s post-Lehman crisis borrowing binge would undermine Beijing’s dollar holding. “We have made a huge amount of loans to the United States,” Wen said. “Of course, we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am a little bit worried.” He called on Washington “to honor its words, stay a credible nation and ensure the safety of Chinese assets.”

中国政府过去一直对此类政策颇为担忧。例如，2009年3月，中国时任国务院总理温家宝，就担心华盛顿方面在雷曼兄弟倒闭的危机后大举借债，将削弱中国持有的美元储备。“我们把巨额资金借给美国，”温家宝说，“当然关心我们资产的安全。说句老实话，我确实有些担心。”他呼吁华盛顿方面“保持信用，信守承诺，保证中国资产的安全。”

Wen looked downright clairvoyant two years later when Standard & Poor’s stripped the US of its AAA credit rating. Will the Trump White House ensure the safety of US debt? Perhaps not. Trump’s spending ambitions so far would make many socialists blush. His next gambit – a giant infrastructure plan – might tempt Moody’s and Fitch to follow S&P’s lead.

两年后，当标准普尔取消了美国的AAA信用评级时，看起来温家宝确实非常有洞察力。特朗普的白宫会确保美国债务的安全吗？也许不会。到目前为止，特朗普的财政支出野心会让许多社会主义者感到脸红。他的下一个赌局——一个庞大的基础设施计划——可能会诱使穆迪和惠誉追上标准普尔的领先地位（也给美国主权信用降级）。

Nor are Trump’s pre-White House exploits a comfort. As a property developer, Trump filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection at least four times. He’s even hinted at defaulting on US debt. On the campaign trail in 2016, he said of government debt: “I would borrow knowing that if the economy crashed you could make a deal. And if the economy was good it was good so therefore you cannot lose. It is like you make a deal before you go into a poker game. And your odds are much better.”

特朗普入主白宫之前也没有让人感到舒服。作为一名房地产开发商，特朗普至少四次申请破产保护。他甚至暗示美国会债务违约。在2016年的竞选活动中，他谈到政府债务时说：“我会借钱，要知道如果经济崩溃了，你可以签一纸协议，要是经济好好的呢，那自然没问题了，所以你不能失败。这就像你在玩扑克牌之前做了一个交易，而且你的胜算要大得多。”

Not exactly reassuring, as these things go. And not exactly a sign Beijing is wise to keep loading up on the Treasuries Japan is keen on selling.

随着事情的发展，这些并不令人放心。而且当日本热衷于抛售美债，而中国政府继续增持并不完全就是一个更明智的信号。