为什么朝鲜的魅力攻势不会持续 [美国媒体]

Why North Korea’s Charm Offensive Won’t Last

为什么朝鲜的魅力攻势不会持续



（注：在英语中，魅力攻势(charm offensive)是指一个人通过言谈举止的友好表示赢得支持，看重的的确是外表。然而，一个人真正的魅力所在，岂非只有外貌所概括？）

In the run-up to the 1988 Summer Games in Seoul, North Korea bombed South Korea Air Flight 858, killing 115 people. Afterward, when South Korea remained steadfast in its desire to host the games, North Korea suddenly offered high-level talks. North Korea toned down its rhetoric and tried to negotiate a co-hosting of the Olympics, but this effort fell apart. This historical lesson is corroborated by one of the Flight 585 bombers who was caught and turned. She is still alive today and recently warned not to trust North Korea's current dictator Kim Jong-un's outreach.

在1988年汉城夏季奥运会的筹备过程中，朝鲜轰炸了韩国的858航班，造成115人的死亡。在那之后，韩国仍坚定不移的继续主办奥运会时，朝鲜突然间提出了高层谈话。朝鲜缓和了他们的言辞，试图通过谈判共同主办奥运会，但是这一努力失败了。这历史性的一课，得到了一个人的支持，她是当年585航班投放炸弹事件中其中的一个炸弹投放者，她在事后被抓了并且投靠了韩方。她今天依然活着，最近，他警告到不要去相信朝鲜的现任独裁者金正恩的对外交往。

The 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea is well underway and once again North Korea is attempting to use the games for their ends. North Korea is trying to steal international attention, break sanctions, and drive a wedge between the United States and South Korea.

2018年的平昌冬奥会，韩国进展顺利，朝鲜却再一次利用奥运会试图达到自己的目的。朝鲜正试图吸引国际社会的注意，打破制裁，然后在美国与韩国之间制造一条裂痕。

Kim has already made himself take center-stage, using a dramatic opening to South Korea to force the international spotlight onto himself. Right now, cooperation is his chosen tool of persuasion, as he spoke of reunification, restarted the North Korean-South Korean hotline, and worked to convince South Korea that both Olympic teams should march under one neutral flag. Kim also launched a charm offensive to show he is serious about negotiations. This has included toned-down rhetoric, a smaller military parade, and sending flashy bands to perform at the Olympics. He also sent North Korean pop star and propagandist Hyon Song-wol to find a venue for an orchestra, causing a sensation which bedazzled South Korean journalists and citizens.

金正恩已经让他自己走在了舞台中间，利用对韩国的戏剧性开放，迫使国际把关注点聚焦到他的身上。现在，合作只是他选择的用来说服的工具，正如他说的统一，重新开通朝鲜与韩国的热线，并努力说服韩国，使他们相信两支奥运代表队都应该在一个中立的旗帜下进行。金正恩还发起了一场魅力攻势，以表明他对谈判是认真的。这包括缓和的说辞，规模较小的阅兵，并派出华丽的乐队在奥运会上表演。他还派了朝鲜流行歌星和宣传员玄松月为一个管弦乐队寻找场地，并引起了韩国记者和公民的震惊。

In the background of all this distraction, North Korea is preparing to make a show of force. Satellite imagery showed 13,000 troops and 150 vehicles drilling for the small February 8th military parade that featured a new missile system. Kim knows he can have a larger parade to send a message anytime he wants. It remains to be seen if he will engage in any missile or nuclear tests during or right after the Olympics.

在这些所有干扰的背后，朝鲜正在准备展示自己的武力。卫星图像显示，13000名士兵和150辆车在为2月8日的小型阅兵演习，并提供了新的导弹系统。金正恩知道它可以有一个更大的游行去传递一个信息，任何一个他想传递的信息。他是否会在奥运会期间或之后进行任何导弹或核试验，还有待观察。

North Korea's appearance of reconciliation also purposefully includes sanctions violations. One of these sending senior North Korean officials to visit South Korea despite being banned from traveling. South Korea will have to decide if it wants to make an exception to the ban, but without certain waivers from the United Nations Security Council, such visits would violate the law. Meanwhile, it is unclear how the US would respond. Already Kim's less notorious sister, Kim Yo-jong, who is not barred from visiting, has had a successful time charming the South Korean and American media.

朝鲜和解的出现包括违反制裁都是有意为之。其中一名派往朝鲜的高级官员访问韩国，尽管被禁止通行。韩国将不得不决定是否要对此禁令作出例外，但要是没有联合国安全委员会的某些豁免的话，这样的访问就是违法的。同时，美国会怎样回应是不确定的。这时，金正恩那个没有那么臭名昭着的妹妹金与正，没有被禁止访问，成功的待了一段时间，吸引了韩国和美国媒体的注意。

Kim will likely get away with several sanctions violations because he will extract them as the cost of North Korean cooperation. Even if they are minor, these violations will test the limits of what others will tolerate. They will make the point that North Korea always has been??and always will be??able to do as it pleases.

金正恩可能会逃脱几次违反制裁的行为，因为他将把制裁作为和朝鲜合作的代价。即使是少数，这些违规也会测试其他人的容忍程度。他们会指出朝鲜一直以来？？和将会做的，并能随心所欲的做他们想做的事

Finally, Kim would love to see the South Korean-American alliance rendered a dead letter. Although it is a very unlikely goal, Kim attempts to accomplish this by contrasting South Korea's willingness to talk with the bellicosity of US President Trump. North Korea's aim is to create the perception that the Koreas are working together against interference by America. When North Korea returns to aggression, Kim will claim that it is America's fault. By cozying up to South Korea and then walking out, Kim hopes to drive a small wedge into the alliance.

最后，金正恩希望看到韩美同盟变成形同虚设，虽然这是一个不太可能的目标，金正恩试图达到这个目标通过对比韩国对好战的美国川普说话意愿。朝鲜旨在制造一种韩国与朝鲜正在共同努力反对美国干涉的感觉。当朝鲜回归侵略时，金正恩会声称这是美国的错。通过与韩国和睦相处然后全身而退，金正恩希望在联盟中制造小分裂。

South Korea should talk to Kim, and so should America, mainly to lower the odds of accidental war. However, talks require realizing that nuclear weapons will not be up for serious discussion and that North Korea will continue its pattern of behavior. Sudden shifts to threats place pressure on South Korea and shifts to friendliness invite confused opponents to the bargaining table on Kim's terms. Wise policymakers anticipate this pattern, rather than being angered or duped by it. To take Kim Jong-un's overtures at face-value is foolish, and South Korea should assume that the Supreme Leader is after something more than the gold at these Olympics.

韩国应该和金正恩会谈，美国也应该，主要是为了降低意外战争的可能性。会谈要求认识到核武器不会变成严重讨论的话题，朝鲜也会继续他们的一贯的行为。突然转向威胁的局势给韩国带来了压力，向友好的转变也也会让困惑的反对者在金正恩的条件下坐到谈判桌上。明智的决策人应该预测这种情况，而不是被它激怒或欺骗。表面上接受金正恩的提议是愚蠢的。韩国应该猜到朝鲜最高领导人在奥运会上追求的可不仅仅是金牌那么简单

John Dale Grover is a Young Voices Advocate and a graduate student at George Mason University's School of Conflict Analysis and Resolution. His articles have appeared in Forbes, the National Interest, and Real Clear Defense.

约翰·戴尔·格罗弗是一位年轻人声音的倡导者也是乔治梅森大学冲突分析和解决学院研究生。他的文章表在“福布斯”、“国家利益杂志”和“Real Clear Defense”上都发表过

This article originally appeared on Real Clear Defense.

这篇文章最初发表在“Real Clear Defense”上。