中国和印度之间的海战到底会是什么样子? [美国媒体]

What Would a Naval War Between China andIndia Really Look Like?

中国和印度之间的海战到底会是什么样子?


              
A tense Sino-Indian border standoff lastyear stirred speculation about what might happen if the two nuclear-armed Asiangiants went to war.

去年中印边境的紧张对峙引发了外界的猜测：如果这两个拥有核武器的亚洲大国开战，可能会发生什么。

Beijing and New Delhi have shelved theirdifferences for now, but the potential for a future clash remains. This is nudging militaryanalysts to theorize about the outcome of a possible face-off between Indian andChinese forces along the Himalayan frontier and on the Indian Ocean. Therelevancy of such assessments is heightened by Washington’s pursuit of a newIndo-Pacific strategy that views India as a counter-weight to China’s ambitionsin the region.

北京和新德里暂时搁置了分歧，但未来冲突的可能性依然存在。这促使军事分析家们推测印度和中国军队在喜马拉雅边境和印度洋上可能对峙的结果。华盛顿方面正在寻求一种新的印度-太平洋战略，将印度视为中国在该地区雄心的制衡力量，这进一步加剧了此类评估的重要性。

On the naval end, attention focuses on apossible confrontation between China’s new aircraft carrier battle group and asimilar Indian carrier force. Both navies have more flat tops underconstruction and boast hunter-killer and nuclear-armed ballistic missilesubmarines.

在海军方面，人们的注意力集中在中国新航母战斗群和类似的印度航母战斗群之间可能发生的对抗。两国海军都有在造的先进装备，并且拥有常规潜艇和拥有核武器的弹道导弹潜艇。

However, those expecting a Midway-likeclash of aircraft carriers will likely be disappointed.

然而，预测到会出现类似中途岛战争的航空母舰之间的冲突，那些人很可能会失望的。

Defense expert Ben Ho Wang Beng says that a Sino-Indian navalconflict, if it happens, will be a highly cautious, defensive affair punctuatedby hit-and-run attacks resembling 1982’s Falklands War between Argentina andBritain.

国防专家Ben Ho Wang Beng说，中印海军之间如果发生冲突，将是一场高度谨慎、防御性的事件，与1982年阿根廷和英国的马岛战争类似。

Unlike in the South China Sea, China has nofriendly air bases in the Indian Ocean. Any Chinese carriers deployed to theregion will only be able to defend themselves with a relatively meager airwing, according to Ho, a naval analyst with the Military Studies Program atSingapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

与南中国海不同，中国在印度洋没有有帮助的空军基地。据新加坡拉惹勒南国际研究学院(S. Rajaratnam School of InternationalStudies)军事研究项目的海军分析人士Ho说，任何部署到该地区的中国航母只能用相对薄弱的空军力量保卫自己。

Ho published an analysis titled ‘How Might China Fight aSino-Indian Naval War?’ in late January in IAPS Dialogue, the online magazineof the Institute for Asia & Pacific Studies.

Ho发表了题为“中国如何应对中印海军战争？”的分析报告。1月下旬在亚太与太平洋研究所在线杂志IAPS Dialogue上发表文章。

The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vastly outnumbers India’s— by four times, or roughly 283 vs. 66major surface ships, not counting subs. But Ho and other analysts argue thatIndia has the advantage of fighting close to home bases, while China faces the“tyranny of distance” that dogged British ships in the Falklands.

中国人民解放军海军(PLAN)的数量远远超过了印度的四倍，大约是283：66比例的水上舰艇，这还不包括潜艇。但是，Ho和其他分析人士认为，印度的优势是在靠近本土基地的地方作战，而中国则面临着像英国船只在福克兰群岛(Falklands)的“距离弊端”。

“Numbers seldom if ever tell the wholestory in marine combat,” US Naval War College Professor James Holmes commented in an August Foreign Policy piece on the outcome of a possible Sino-Indiannaval conflict.

美国海军军事学院教授詹姆斯·霍尔姆斯在8月份的一篇外交政策文章中谈到了可能发生的中印海军冲突的结果，他说:“很少有人能说明海上战斗的全部情况。”

Both China and India also operate carrierswith relatively small “jump decks.” This limits the complement of fighters thatcan be carried, along with the amount of ordnance that can be launched withindividual planes. Ho says this also cuts the proportion of planes that can beallocated for attack as opposed to defense.

中国和印度的航母有着相对较小的“甲板”。“这限制了可以携带的战斗机的数量，以及可以单独使用的弹药量。Ho说，这也减少了可用于攻击而不是防御的飞机的比例。

It’s also likely that China would deployonly one carrier battle group against India due to competing strategicpriorities in the western Pacific. “The Chinese carrier group would essentiallybe on its own,” Ho told Asia Times in an email interview.

此外，由于西太平洋战略重点的竞争，中国也可能只部署一个航母战斗群。“中国航母集团将基本上是独立自主的，”他在接受《亚洲时报》(Asia Times)的电子邮件采访时表示。

If China deploys a carrier group, Ho saysthe force will likely operate with a high degree of circumspection because ofthe enormous odds it faces so far from home. It will also be leery of deployingits carrier close to India’s coast, where it will be vulnerable toanti-access/area-denial weapons.

他说，如果中国部署一个航母战斗群，那么这支部队很可能会以高度的谨慎行事，因为它在远离家乡的地方面临着巨大的困难。它还将对在印度海岸附近部署它的航母持怀疑态度，在那里它将容易受到反入侵/区域封锁武器的攻击。

The Indians, egged on by public opinion,would try to find and attack the Chinese carrier group. But Ho argues thiswould be problematic given the vast expanses of the Indian Ocean where theChinese can play cat and mouse. Both nations lack very advanced satellitereconnaissance that can pinpoint enemy ships, although China is closing the gapwith new tracking technology.

在舆论的鼓动下，印度人会试图找到并攻击中国航母战斗群。但是Ho认为，考虑到印度洋广阔的海域，中国人可以玩猫捉老鼠，这将是一个问题。虽然中国正在缩小与最新追踪技术的差距，但两国都缺乏能够精确定位敌舰的先进卫星侦察。

Ho adds that India’s land-based aircraftand mostly diesel-electric submarines would likewise face operational limits infinding fast-moving Chinese carriers in the open sea.

Ho补充说，印度的陆基飞机和大部分柴油电动潜艇也将面临在公海寻找快速移动的中国航空母舰的操作限制。

In the end, Chinese subs, destroyers andmine layers may see more action in a conflict where they’re likely to deploynear major Indian ports and naval facilities, Ho says.

Ho说，最后，中国潜艇、驱逐舰和水雷层可能会在冲突中看到更多的行动，他们可能会在印度主要港口和海军设施附近部署。

Warplanes based in mainland China may alsoface trouble providing air support for a carrier group since they must overflyIndia-sensitive nations like Bangladesh and Myanmar to reach the Indian Ocean.

中国大陆的军用飞机可能也面临着为航空母舰群提供空中支援的困难，因为它们必须飞越像孟加拉国和缅甸这样的印度敏感国家，抵达印度洋。

Moreover, China’s much-vaunted DF-21Danti-ship missile may prove useless against Indian carriers. It must be firedfrom land and there is no ship-based version.

此外，中国大肆吹嘘的东风-21D反舰导弹可能对印度航空母舰毫无用处。它必须从陆地发射，而且没有舰载版本。

The challenge for the DF-21D and otheranti-ship missiles, according to Ho, is that a target carrier force moving at atypical speed of about 20 knots would have moved to another location a fewkilometers away from its point of detection by the time a missile is finallylaunched.

根据Ho的说法，东风- 21D和其他反舰导弹的挑战在于，目标航母以大约20节的速度移动，在导弹最终发射的时候，将会移动到距离探测点几公里远的另一个位置。

The DF-21D reportedly has sensors to trackmoving targets at sea. But Ho contends this capability hasn’t been proven —even in drills.

据报道，东风- 21D有传感器来跟踪海上的移动目标。但是Ho认为这种能力还没有被证明——即使是在演习中。

‘Midway’ in Malacca Strait?

马六甲海峡的“中途岛”？

Ho says the only possibility for a21st-century Battle of Midway would be if India tries to interdicta Chinese force as it sails through the narrow Malacca Strait. “But this courseof action could elicit a strong pushback not just from the littoral states ofMalaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore, but also the international community, giventhe economic importance of that waterway,” Ho said.

Ho说，21世纪中途岛战争的唯一可能性是，如果印度试图阻止中国部队穿越狭隘的马六甲海峡。“但是，考虑到这条水道的经济重要性，这一行动过程可能会引起来自马来西亚、印度尼西亚和新加坡沿岸国的强烈反对，同时也会引起国际社会的强烈反对。”

Chinese vs. Indian carriers

中国和印度的航空公司

China currently has one operationalcarrier, the Liaoning, a refitted Soviet-era ship purchased from Russia andan indigenously built Type 001A that may be launched this year. Beijingreportedly has plans to build several more. But Ho notes that its latest Type 001Aboasts only a slightly larger air wing than the Liaoning’s 20 combat aircraft,consisting of Shenyang J-15 fighters. An American Nimitz-class carrier, incontrast, carries well over 40 strike fighters.

中国目前有一艘航母，辽宁号，一艘从俄罗斯购买的苏联时代船只，以及一艘可能在今年下水的自主建造的001A型。据报道，北京计划继续建造几艘。但是Ho指出，最新的001A型舰载的飞机只比辽宁舰的20架战斗机(包括沈阳的歼-15战斗机)稍微多一些。相比之下，一艘美国尼米兹级航空母舰的战斗机超过40架。

India has one carrier, the INS Vikramaditya, in active service today. Another, the INSVikrant, is fitting out and is expected to be commissioned in 2020. Each shipcarries a little more than twenty fixed-wing aircraft, not countinghelicopters.

印度有一艘航空母舰，名为“维克拉玛蒂亚”号的现役航母。另一个是“维克兰特号”(INS Vikrant)，它正在建造，预计将于2020年投入使用。每艘装载了20多架固定翼飞机，不包括直升机。

The Vikramaditya is a modified Kiev-classaircraft carrier which entered into service with the Indian Navy in 2013. Itserved with the Soviet Navy during the Cold War, was bought by India in 2004and underwent years of refitting. It’s equipped with Russian MiG-29K fighters. The Vikrant is the first carrier to bebuilt in India.

维克拉玛蒂亚号是一艘改装过的基辅级航空母舰，于2013年投入印度海军服役。冷战期间，它曾在苏联海军服役，2004年被印度收购，并经历了数年的改装。它装备了俄罗斯米格- 29k战斗机。“维克兰特”号是在印度建造的第一艘航母。

J-15 vs. MiG-29

歼15与米格-29

Comparing China’s J-15 to India’s MiG 29K,Ho says: “On paper, both aircraft’s combat attributes are fairly evenlymatched. While the Indian MiG-29K is lighter and more maneuverable, the ChineseJ-15’s serviceability rate is better and this means that more of them can bebrought into action at any one time.”

Ho将中国的J-15与印度的米格29K进行对比，他说：“在表面上，两架战斗机的战斗属性实力相当。虽然印度的米格-29K重量更轻，机动性更强，但中国歼-15的适用性更好，这意味着在任何时候都可以更多的发挥作用。“

But pilot competency is another matter.Critics have questioned the quality of China’s still unproven fighter pilotsvs. India’s, who train with and are said to compare favorably with US ones.Others say China is closing the training gap.

但是，飞行员能力是另一回事。批评人士对中国仍未被证实的战斗机飞行员的质量提出了质疑，印度的训练与据说与美国相比毫不逊色。还有人说中国正在缩小培训差距。

Would China accelerate the hunt forfriendly bases in Indian Ocean nations like the Maldives if it felt itscarriers were out on a limb? China is expanding its strategic footprint andties in the region. A new naval base in Djibouti in the Horn of Africaand reports of another in Gwadar in Pakistan are examples. But Ho says a permanentChinese military presence in India-sphere nations such as the Maldives or SriLanka is unlikely due to push-back from New Delhi.

如果中国认为其航空母舰是瘫痪的，那他是否会加快在马尔代夫等印度洋国家寻找友国建立基地？中国正在扩大其在该地区的战略扩张和联系。非洲之角吉布提的新海军基地和巴基斯坦瓜达尔的另一个海军基地就是例子。但Ho说，在印度这样的国家，马尔代夫或斯里兰卡等国的永久性军事存在不太可能从新德里回归。