中国会成为一个无可匹敌的超级大国吗? [美国媒体]

Godfree Roberts, Ed.D. Education & Geopolitics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst (1973)

戈德菲·罗伯茨，教育学博士，教育与地缘政治，马萨诸塞大学，艾摩斯特市(1973年)

China will become an unrivaled superpower in 2040, when it will

中国将在2040年成为一个无可匹敌的超级大国，到那时中国将：

·  Dominate every aspect of the world’s economy. China’s population is three times the EU’s so, in 2040, her economy will be fifty percent bigger than the American, European and Japanese economies combined. That’s in line with Nobelist Robert Fogel’s 2010 prediction, “China’s per capita income will hit $85,000 by 2040–more than double the forecast for the European unx–and her share of global GDP, 40 percent, will dwarf that of the United States. That is what economic hegemony will look like”.

·  全面主导世界经济。中国的人口是欧盟的三倍，因此，在2040，中国的经济将比美国、欧洲和日本经济加起来还要大50%。这与诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·福格尔(RobertFogel)2010年的预测一致：“到2040，中国人均收入将达到85000美元---是欧盟预期的两倍多---她在全球GDP中所占的份额将达到40%，美国与之相比相形见绌，这是真正的经济霸权该有的样子“。



·  Dominate every scientific discipline. The Japan Science and Technology Agency says China is already the most influential country in four of eight core scientific fields, tying with the U.S. China ranks first in computer science, mathematics, materials science and engineering while the U.S. leads in physics, environmental and earth sciences, basic life science and clinical medicine–but China is rapidly catching up in physics (it is spent $6 billion building the world's largest particle accelerator, which should give it the lead in particle physics). Ten years ago, China led in none of these disciplines and, at its current pace it will lead all of them in less than thirteen years.

·  主导所有科学学科。“日本科学技术振兴机构”（ Japan Science and Technology Agency）表示，中国已经是八个核心科学领域中最有影响力的国家，与美国并列。中国在计算机科学、数学、材料科学和工程领域排名第一，而美国在物理、环境和地球科学、基础生命科学和临床医学方面领先---但中国在物理学方面正在迅速追赶(中国斥资六十亿美元建造了世界上最大的粒子加速器，这将使它在粒子物理学方面处于领先地位)。十年前，中国在这些学科中完全没有领先，但以目前的速度，它将在不到13年的时间内主导所有这些学科。

·  Dominate every technology. China already leads the world in all fields of civil engineering, manufacturing, supercomputing, speech recognition, graphenics, thorium power, pebble bed reactors, genomics, thermal power generation, quantum communication networks, ASW missiles, in-orbit satellite refueling, passive array radar, metamaterials, hyperspectral imaging, nanotechnology, UHV electricity transmission, electric vehicles, high speed rail, sustainable energy, radio telescopy, sustainable energy research and manufacturing, hypersonic space weapons, satellite quantum communications and quantum secure direct communications. By 2030 it will dominate the remaining technologies like computer chip making and artificial intelligence.

·  主导每项技术。中国已经在土木工程、制造业、超级计算、语音识别、图形学、钍动力、球床反应堆、基因组学、火力发电、量子通信网络、反潜导弹、在轨卫星、被动阵列雷达、超材料、高光谱成像、纳米技术、特高压输电、电动汽车、高速铁路、可持续能源、无线电望远镜、可持续能源研究和制造、高超音速空间武器、量子通讯卫星和量子安全通信等领域领先世界。到2030，它将主导剩下的技术，如计算机芯片制造和人工智能等。

·  Dominate militarily. By 2020 China will completely dominate the battlespace within 500 miles of her borders on land sea and air where her defensive weaponry is more advanced and numerous than America’s offensive suite. Her economy is already much stronger than America’s and, though fleets win battles, economies win wars.

·  在军事上占主导地位。到2020，中国将在距离她的边界500英里内的陆地、海上和空中完全占据主动，在那里她的防御武器比美国的进攻性武器更加先进，数量也更多。那时，她的经济会比美国强大得多：舰队赢得战斗，但经济却能赢得战争。

· Dominate Cyberspace and the Internet. China already dominates the Internet in sheer size and by 2035 more people will transact business on the Internet and spend more doing so than all the citizens in Europe and North America combined.

·  主导网络空间和互联网。中国已经在互联网上独占鳌头，到2035，将有更多的人在互联网上进行交易，其交易量和交易金额将超过欧洲和北美所有公民的总和。

· Dominate in citizen well-being. Thanks to the current anti-poverty drive, by 2020 China will have safer streets, better education, higher social mobility, more rich people and fewer hungry, homeless and poor people than America.

·  在公民幸福度上占主导地位。由于目前的反贫困运动，到2020，中国将拥有比美国更安全的街道、更好的教育、更高的社会流动性、更多的富人和更少的饥饿、无家可归者和穷人。



· Dominate the world ethically. If the government follows President Xi’s suggestions, by 2049 China will again have the same GINI coefficient–the most equitable sharing of wealth–as it did under Mao, and the best human rights record of any major government.

·  在道德上主导世界。如果政府遵循习的建议，到2049，中国将再次拥有与毛泽东时代一样的基尼系数--最公平的财富分享系数--也将是所有主要政府中最好的人权记录。

·  Become the most trusted government on earth. If China avoids wars, doesn’t meddle in other countries’ internal affairs, develops southern and eastern Europe, Africa and Latin America and accomplishes the six tasks listed above, it will become the world’s arbiter and natural leader in 2040.

·  成为地球上最值得信赖的政府。如果中国避免战争，不干涉别国内政，发展与南欧、东欧、非洲和拉美的关系，完成上述六项任务，2040年中国将成为世界的仲裁者和自然领袖。





Paul Denlinger：
Nov 28 · 28 upvotes
I don’t think the US will exist anymore in 2040, which means that the US$ will not be around as a reserve currency.
Instead, the US will fracture into smaller mini-states, each with its radically different politics.
Basically, the US experiment will end spectacularly.

我不认为美国在2040年会继续存在，这意味着美元不会成为储备货币。
相反，美国将会崩裂成更小的小国家，每一个都有着截然不同的政治。基本上，美国的实验将以惊人的结果结束。

-------------

Hoang Nghiem (严黄)：
Nov 28 · 4 upvotes
I didn’t think the US was really that fragile was it? I’m curious as to why the Americans would intentionally self-fracture themselves into many smaller nation states.

我不认为美国真的那么脆弱，我很好奇为什么美国人会故意把自己分裂成许多较小的国家。

-------------

Paul Denlinger：
US unity depends on the American people; the US is the real People’s Republic.
That unity is gone.
It is like a bad marriage; both sides hate each other, but no one wants to be the first asking for a divorce.

美国的团结取决于美国人民；美国是真正的人民共和国，这种团结已经不复存在，这就像一段糟糕的婚姻，双方都很讨厌对方，只是没人愿意首先提出离婚。

-------------

Hoang Nghiem (严黄)：
Paul, you’re referring to the current social divide between conservatives and liberals right?

保罗, 你指的是保守派和自由派之间当前的社会分化，对吧?

-------------

Paul Denlinger：
Not only.
Americans have always believed this myth that American society is classless. However, following the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the whole society is dividing along economic class lines.
It is going to split into so many pieces, and it will be impossible to put it back together unless the US produces a leader like Mao.

不仅仅是这点。
美国人一直相信一个神话，即美国社会是无阶级的。然而，继2008次贷危机之后，整个社会正处于经济阶层的分化之中。
它将分裂成许多碎片，除非美国产生像毛这样的领导人，否则不可能把它重新组合起来。

-------------

Hank Barley：
There’s nothing like a war to stir up patriotism and unite the people. Recall how popular Bush was when Iraq was invaded? Based on false pretense or not, the country was united and his approval rating shot to the 90% range.

没有什么比战争更能激发爱国主义和团结人民的力量。回想一下当伊拉克被入侵时布什是多么受欢迎？基于或真或假的借口，那时候的美国是国家团结一致的，他的支持率达到了90%。

-------------

Aaron Delt
More Chinese nationalist pep rally mentality. Its just your wet dream. People have been betting against the US for a long time.

你所说更多的是一种中国民族主义鼓舞士气的心态，这只是你的意淫，长期以来，人们一直在押注美国。

-------------

Josh Bergeman：
As someone who lives in the US I can say with a fair degree of accuracy that the US is NOT going to break apart any time soon! I know that we may seem devided, but the truth is that most of us simply don't care that much about politics! You have to realize that only about 130 million people even bothered to vote in our last election! That's out of a population of over 300 million! Unless there is a major economic meltdown most of us are just busy living our lives and not worrying about politics! I know it's sad, but that's just the way it is!

作为一个生活在美国的人，我可以相当肯定地说，短时间内美国不会很快分裂！我知道，我们可能看起来是被分开的，但事实是，我们大多数人根本不太关心政治！你必须意识到，在我们上次的选举中，甚至只有大约一亿三千万人参与投票！这只是超过三亿的人口中的一部分！除非有重大的经济崩溃，否则我们大多数人只是忙于生活，而不担心政治！我知道这很可悲，但事实就是如此！

-------------

Hoang Nghiem (严黄)：
Yep, I agree Josh, it’s why I had to ask Paul to clarify and justify himself. Things may look bad now with “the Donald” in the White House, but the US is still doing pretty well for itself I think!

是的，我同意Josh（注：楼上）的观点，这就是为什么我要让保罗澄清和证明自己的原因。白宫里的那个“唐纳德”可能看起来很糟糕，但我认为，美国仍然做得很好。

-------------

Jeffery Zhang：
Normally I would say you are right, but this really depends on how badly the quality of life deteriorates for the middle class. Most people don’t care about politics, but they do care about their own quality of life.
Give how national policies of the US has made basic cost of living + healthcare + education so prohibitively expensive for average Americans, the US populace will increasingly be drawn to radical political solutions.
American millennials are doing worse economically than their parents at the same age. Maybe the US won’t break up politically, but would it really be much better if someone like Hugo Chavez comes to power?

通常我会说你是对的，但这真的取决于中产阶级生活质量的恶化程度。大多数人不关心政治，但他们关心自己的生活质量。
看看美国的国家政策如何使得普通美国人的基本生活成本+医疗+教育如此昂贵，美国民众将越来越多地被激进的政治解决方案所吸引。
美国千禧一代在经济上的表现比他们同龄时期的父母还要差。也许美国不会在政治上分裂，但如果像乌戈·查韦斯（注：委内瑞拉第 52、53 任总统）这样的人上台，情况真的会好得多吗？

-------------

Josh Bergeman：
Well that's one of the very few redeeming features of the US system, even if someone like Chavez came into power his ability to make radical changes would be severely limited! Just look at what Trump has accomplished, and that's with a republican majority!
Actually my biggest fear is that Trump and the Hawks in Congress are going to get us into a war with North Korea! Even a month ago I would have said that will never happen, but every time NK tests another missile Trump's support for a war grows stronger! And I truly believe that is what he wants! But of course it won't be him and his that do the fighting and dying! I think war with NK is the only thing that might break the US!

好吧，这是美国体制中为数不多的几个可取之处之一，即使查韦斯这样的人上台，他做出根本改变的能力也将受到严重限制！看看特朗普能做得了什么，这是共和党的多数派！
事实上，我最大的担心是特朗普和国会的鹰派会让我们卷入一场与朝鲜的战争！就在一个月前，我还会说，这种情况永远不会发生，但每次朝鲜试射另一枚导弹，特朗普对战争的支持就会越来越强烈！我真的相信这就是他想要的！但当然不会是他和他的人在战斗和死亡！我认为与朝鲜的战争是唯一可能会破坏美国的事情！

-------------

Jeffery Zhang：
I don’t know how well checks and balances will work if it really came to that. Lincoln threatened to arrest the chief justice of the Supreme Court and suspended habeas corpus.
Since the president is in charge of executing the laws, he can arrest his political enemies in congress on charges of breaking some law. Given the recent wave of powerful men taken down by sexual harassment allegations, I’m not confident that congress will be able to withstand a purge by the executive branch.

我不知道如果真的有这样的情况，制衡会有多大的效果。林肯就曾威胁要逮捕最高法院的首席法官，并暂停其人身保护令。
由于总统负责执行法律，他可以以违反法律的罪名逮捕他在国会的政敌。考虑到最近一波被性骚扰指控所打击的强势人物，我不相信国会能够经受住行政部门的清洗。

Congress is vulnerable to divide and conquer tactics. An effective president bent on taking power from congress will have little trouble dividing congress and purging his enemies.
I don’t think Trump is a good example. Trump wants to be liked too much to be an effective president. Imagine someone like Putin as president. He doesn’t need to be liked. He just wants loyalty from his friends and fear from his enemies. Do you think someone like Putin will have trouble finding something to bring down his enemies in congress?

国会很容易被分而治之。一个致力于从国会获得权力的总统，想要分裂国会和清除他的敌人，几乎没有什么困难。
我不认为特朗普是一个很好的例子。特朗普想要成为一个有影响力的总统，但太过于想被人喜欢，
你得想象一下像普京这样的人当选总统，他不需要被人喜欢，他只想得到朋友的忠诚和敌人的恐惧。你认为像普京这样的人能在国会找到什么东西来打倒他的敌人？

Since presidential impeachment requires majority of the house and 2/3 majority in the senate, all the President needs is loyalty of 1/3 of the senate to be impeachment proof. Individual members of congress, on the other hand has no such protection against criminal prosecution. An effective president can pick off his congressional enemies one by one. Imagine knowing that opposing the president means bringing down the full weight of the DOJ on you, your family, friends, and supporters while the president has an impeachment proof block of allies in the Senate. I think the smart thing to do for a Congressman who oppose the president is to call in sick when you don’t agree on a vote.

由于总统弹劾需要众议院多数票和参议院2/3多数票，总统所需要的只是1/3的参议院忠诚就能免于被弹劾。另一方面，却没有这样的保护措施来防止刑事诉讼。一个致力于此的总统可以一个一个地除掉他的国会敌人。想象一下，如果知道反对总统意味着司法部的全部权力会压在你、你的家人、朋友和支持者身上，而总统却在参议院有一个弹劾你的盟友，我认为，对一个反对总统的国会议员来说，明智的做法是在你不同意投票的情况下打电话请个病假。

-------------

Josh Bergeman：
Watch what is going on right now with the DOJ and the Russia investigation! Trump wishes that the DOJ was under his thumb! In order to do what you are suggesting would require a FBI director willing to support him and that doesn't seem that likely! What would likely happen is you would get two or three congressman under investigation and then you would get a full revolt in Congress! Remember that in the end congressman are answerable to the voting public not the president! And of course the judiciary is totally independent!

看看现在和司法部和俄罗斯调查有关的情况！特朗普希望美国司法部在他的掌控之下！为了做到你所说的，他需要一个联邦调查局局长愿意支持他，而这看起来并不可能！可能会发生的是你会受到两到三名国会议员的调查，然后你会在国会受到全面的反抗！请记住，国会议员最终是对投票的公众负责，而不是总统！而且毫无疑问，司法机构是完全独立！

-------------

Jeffery Zhang：
Again, Trump is a bad example. He is not an effective leader in general. He doesn’t inspire loyalty or fear. People don’t take him seriously.
The director of the FBI serves at the president’s leisure. He can fire any disobedient director and hire a loyalist. Trump’s ineffectiveness is seen by his inability to arm twist members of congress.

再说一次，特朗普是一个糟糕的例子。他在一般情况下并不是一个卓有成效的领导人，他不会激发忠诚或恐惧，人们不把他当回事。
联邦调查局局长为总统服务，他可以解雇任何不听话的局长，并雇佣一个忠诚于自己的人。特朗普的无效之处在于他在左右国会议员方面的无能。

An effective president would order a night of the long knives for his enemies in congress. Just quietly gather evidence of wrong doing and arrest them all at night, in their beds. By morning only the loyal and the scared would be in congress.
Imagine how much easier it would be to pass laws if half of congress got arrest one night. Both houses and senate only require a single majority for a quorum. So theoretically the president can arrest 49 members of the senate and 217 members of the house over night and still have a quorum to pass whatever legislation he wants the next morning.

一位有意获得权力的总统会对他在国会的敌人暗中下手。只是静静地收集错误的证据，然后到了晚上，在他们的床上逮捕他们，到了早晨，只有心怀忠诚和恐惧的人会出现在国会。
想象一下，如果有一半的国会议员在某天晚上被逮捕，那么通过法律将会变得多么容易。参众两院只要求法定人数达到单一多数，所以理论上说，总统可以在晚上逮捕49名参议院议员和217名众议院议员，但仍然可以达到法定人数要求，可以在第二天早上通过他想要的任何法案。

American presidents have thus far not resorted to such extreme measures because such a move would set a very radical precedent. However, nothing institutionally prevents such an outcome. The president is very well within his powers to order the arrest of half of congress in one night. Nothing prohibits this in the Constitution, and nothing in the oaths that law enforcement and military swears ask them to defend criminals who happen to sit in congress.

到目前为止，美国总统还没有采取如此极端的措施，因为这样的举动会开创一个非常激进的先例。
然而，体制上没有任何可以阻止这种结果的出现的规则。总统有能力下令在一夜之间逮捕国会一半的议员，这并不违宪，在法律执行和军队誓言中，也没有任何一项要求他们必须为那些碰巧在国会的罪犯辩护。

-------------

Josh Bergeman：
I will admit that your senario is interesting but I am not sure if it could work like that! Granted I am not an expert but I think in a situation like you discribe the states would have to send replacements and then hold emergency elections! Like I said I'm not an expert though and it would certainly be interesting, if I was in Europe say lol!
Anyway, thanks for the nightmares lol!

我承认你的设想很有趣，但我不确定它是否真会那样！当然，我不是专家，但我认为，在像你描述的那种情况下，各州肯定会派人进行替换，然后举行紧急选举！就像我刚说的，尽管我不是专家，我还是觉得你说的很有意思 lol！
不管怎样，谢谢你给的噩梦！

-------------

Wyatt Peck：
America is an internally weak frxwork of very different people's. It will break apart, meanwhile China will conquer and annex Taiwan, and Mongolia by 2049.

美国是一个有各种不同类型民众的国家，其内部框架薄弱，它将分裂，与此同时，中国将在2049年征服并吞并台湾和蒙古。

Mervyn Locke：
I have the same view of EU. The decline of patriotism and importance of the nation state will be their demise, with small fiefdoms comprising various political factions; feminists, neoliberals, Islamists and so forth. Because politics have today become so infected and polarized in the West that compromise is no longer an option.

我对欧盟也有同样的看法。爱国主义的衰落和国家的重要性会导致它们的消亡，分化为由不同的政治派别组成的小领地；女权主义者，新自由主义者，伊斯兰主义者等等，如今的政治已经在西方受到如此严重的感染和分化，因此妥协不再是一种选择。

-------------

James Luong (梁孟俊)
Sir, such a prediction has gone a bit too far? Surely the us have more to unite them as a nation. Even if the ua splinters, it will eventually be reunited. You know, 合久必分、分久必合。

（Paul Denlinger）大佬，这样的预测有点太过分了吧？无疑的，美国有更多的力量使其作为一个国家来团结起来，即使是美国分裂，它最终也会重新统一，你懂的，合久必分、分久必合。

--------------

Quang Nguyen：
Trust me Paul, in 2040 there is a much higher chance that China would break into a civil war, fall into a great economy crisis, or have a nuclear war with US than US fall apart and break into states.

相信我，保罗，2040年中国陷入一场内战，陷入一场巨大的经济危机，或者与美国发生核战争的几率比美国分崩离析，分裂成不同国家的几率要高。
--------------

Omead Moses：
The US military would never let that happen.

美国军方绝不会让这种情况发生。

--------------

K W Wong：
I think a large country that going to break up should be Russia, China may have a chance to retake Far East Russia

我认为一个将要分裂的大国应该是俄罗斯，中国有可能重新夺回远东地区。
-----------------------------

Roger Jiang
That is a rather bold prediction…

这是一个相当大胆的预测。。。

Paul Denlinger
It is, but I think it is time to start talking about the end of the US.

是的，但我认为是时候开始谈论美国的终结了。

Roger Jiang
That would be quite a shock to the ‘Murica No.1 folks…

这对“美国优先”的人来说是一种震惊。

Paul Denlinger
They are idiots.

他们是白痴。

——————2————————

Dmitry Petrov, Retired (2017-present)
德米特里 · 彼得罗夫，退休(2017 -现在)

I do not have many doubts that China will become the #1 superpower.
Nevertheless, I find Godfree Roberts' answer to Will China become an unrivaled superpower? to be a huge exaggeration.

我不怀疑中国会成为头号超级大国。
尽管如此，我还是觉得戈德菲·罗伯茨（Godfree Roberts，即楼上获得最高赞的答主）对中国是否会成为一个无可匹敌的超级大国的答案，有点太夸张了。

The Chinese deal with reality differently related to Europeans, including Russians and Americans. Sometimes it works well, sometimes it does not. The citizens of Middle Kingdom have a strong capacity to invent things, but they invent things in their own way, which hardly ever will be proved to become uncomparably the best. The example of their predecessor, Japan, has already shown this. See: “China’s growth miracle has run out of steam” by Michael Pettis, FT NOVEMBER 19, 2017; Amazon.com: Order by Accident: The Origins and Consequences of Conformity in Contemporary Japan (9780813339214): Alan Miller, Satoshi Kanazawa: Books. Neither can they be superior to everybody in ALL branches of science and technology. Their ethics is valid, but other ethical systems are valid too.

中国人对待现实的态度与欧洲人不同，包括俄罗斯人和美国人不同。有时效果很好，有时却不行。中央王国的公民有很强的发明创造能力，但他们以自己的方式发明事物，但几乎很难被证明是无与伦比的。他们的前任日本的例子已经表明了这一点。
参见：《中国的增长奇迹已经失去动力》，迈克尔佩蒂斯，英国“金融时报”2017年11月19日；亚马逊：《当代日本整合的起源和后果》(9780813339214)：艾伦米勒。
他们（中国和日本）也不可能在所有的科学和技术领域中比任何人都优越。他们的伦理是有效的，但别家的伦理体系也是有效的。

The US surely has lost her way, but the chances are high that she will touch the bottom, push off and get to the surface again. Europe, especially Eastern Europe and Germany, hopefully in tune with Russia and in concert with Japan, will work hard to transform positively, in order to catch up with China. India, which is an English-speaking country and which will in few years have the biggest population of the world, will also be up, rather soon, with her will to emerge. The Chinese themselves will try to support a more balanced development, investing their capitals worldwide and trying to upgrade friendly countries.

美国无疑已经迷失了方向，但她触底、摆脱、并再次浮出水面的可能性很高。欧洲，特别是东欧和德国，希望与俄罗斯保持一致，并与日本协调一致，努力实现积极的变革，以赶上中国。印度是一个讲英语的国家，几年后将拥有世界上人口最多的国家，她也将很快崛起。中国将努力维持更加平衡的发展，在世界范围内投资资本，在全球范围内投资，并努力升级友好国家。

Then, China has learned from the Great Britain and the US, that being the strongest power shall, in the long run, inevitably turn out counter-productive. Even if the policy of isolationalism, which characterised Ming and Qing dynasties, would not be surely applied in present-day world, some isolationistic features are still present in Chinese mentality; I do not think that China will be too active in expanding militarily towards American continents.
All civilizations tend to lose the impetus when they become too well-off and are not bound to compete for the survival. It would be too strange if the Chinese should become the unprecedented exception.

中国从英国和美国那里吸取了经验教训，从长远来看，作为最强大的力量，必然会产生反作用。即使作为明清两代主要特征的的孤立主义政策，在当今世界也不适用，而中国人的心态仍然存在一些孤立主义的特点，我可不认为中国会积极地向美洲大陆进行军事扩张。

所有的文明，当他们变得非常富裕，并且不必将为生存而竞争的时候，都会趋向于失去动力，如果中国人成为一个史无前例的例外，那就太奇怪了。

--------------
Poh Foong：
China do not want to be a No. 1 superpower or become the world’s policeman. It has lots of its own problem to tackle. Like the well being of its population. History showed that China is not a country that wants to do harm to other countries or people.

中国不想成为头号超级大国，也不想成为世界警察。它有许多自己的问题需要解决。比如它的人口问题。历史表明，中国不是一个想要伤害其他国家或人民的国家。

——————3————————

Alan Tam, studied at Manchester Metropolitan University
Alan Tam，在曼彻斯特城市大学学习

China is aging faster then you probably aware. this is a big problem to China economy development as aging population create huge burdens to the nation welfare systems and lower productivity.
China must let go of its strict restriction on birthrate or future is doomed as a society as it is today.

中国正在快速老龄化，你可能已经意识到了。人口老龄化给国家福利制度带来巨大负担，导致生产效率低下，这是中国经济发展面临的重大问题。
中国必须放开对出生率的严格限制，否则未来注定和今天这样的社会没什么两样。

——————4————————

Ethan Mouch, Knows International relations, inside and out.
伊桑·穆奇，了解国际关系，无论内外。

Unrivaled superpower?
That is way to bold a claim to make. Like, out of left field. This would require alot to happen, namely, for the US to fall off the map. That seems very improbable. Additionally, many people that boast this are forgetting the nation looking like the biggest thorn in China's side for the next decade or two: India. There is a saying that goes:
“The US is the power of today, China is the power of tomorrow, and India is the power of next week.”

无可匹敌的超级大国吗? 这是一个大胆的主张，这种说法有点突如其来（out of left field）的意思。这需要很大的改变才能做到，得美国先坠落，这似乎非常不可能。此外，许多夸耀这一点的人忘记了中国在未来10年或20年里最大的障碍：印度。有一种说法是：

“美国是今天的超级大国，中国是明天的超级大国，而印度是再下一个超级大国。”

China will be rivaled by two powers in, say, 2050, when they will finally pull away from the US economically. Obviously enough, they are the predecessor, the US, who would need a colossal collaspe to not compete any longer, which is unlikely, and India, the dark horse of geopolitics.

到2050年，中国将与两个大国相匹敌，届时中国将在经济上最终甩开美国。但这显然还不够，作为前任的美国的，要使其不再竞争，必须迎来一个巨大的崩溃，这是不可能的，而印度则是地缘政治的黑马。

This is also not taking into account the rising powers of that time period. We talk about Saudi Arabia and Iran today as intermediate powers, but as the Middle East oil dries up and cleaner energy sources emerge in the West, that won’t last. Instead, we will be mentioning countries like Brazil, Indonesia, and espeically Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, and South Africa as the importance and economic development of Africa skyrockets in the coming decades.

这还没有考虑到那个时期崛起的国家。我们今天谈论沙特阿拉伯和伊朗，称其为中间性大国，但随着中东石油枯竭，西方出现更的清洁能源，这种情况不会持续下去。相反，我们将提到巴西、印度尼西亚、尼日利亚、埃塞俄比亚、埃及和南非等国家，且非洲在未来几十年中的重要性和经济发展都会迅速增长。

A balance of power is the general norm in diplomacy. It occurred in Europe for centuries. In the era of colonial nations, France, Britain, Austria, Spain, Portugal, and later Russia, Prussia, and the Netherlands would keep no nation from being too powerful. The British recognized this and made it their general policy in foreign affairs for a long time. When Europe was redrawn in 1815 during the Congress of Vienna, they came seeking a continental status quo, which they achieved for roughly a hundred years until WW1.

权力的平衡是外交的普遍准则，它持续影响了欧洲几个世纪。在殖民国家的时代，法国、英国、奥地利、西班牙、葡萄牙以及后来的俄罗斯、普鲁士和荷兰，都不会让任何一个国家变得过于强大。英国认识到这一点，并长期将其作为外交政策的总方针。当欧洲在1815的维也纳会议期间被重新划分时，他们开始寻求保持大陆均势，到第一次世界大战，他们使欧洲保持了大约一百年的均势现状。

That was off topic a bit, but what I am saying is this: What the US achieved with global supremacy after the Cold War was unprecedented, but it is far from surprising it didn't last long. China is no exception to the rule, and will face even more challenges to its power than what the US faces now when it does inevitably take that mantle as the “superpower”.

这个话题有点离题，但我想说的是：冷战后美国在全球霸权方面所取得的成就是前所未有的，但这并不令人惊讶，它没有持续多久。中国也不例外，当它不可避免地接过这个“超级大国”的角色时，它将面临比美国现在面临的更大的挑战。

--------------

Mervyn Locke：
India will only surpass China in terms of population size, nothing else.

印度只会在人口规模上超越中国，仅此而已。

--------------

Metin Basturk：
“The US is the power of today, China is the power of tomorrow, and India is the power of next week.”
I really like this saying, do you know where this is from?

“美国是今天的超级大国，中国是明天的超级大国，而印度是再下一个超级大国。”
-----我很中意这个说法，你知道这话从哪里来的吗?

--------------

Ethan Mouch
I don't really have a specific source. I just picked it up over a period of time. I searched a few times but couldn't find much.
我并没有一个具体的来源，我只是在某段时间看到过，我找了几次，但找不到。

Metin Basturk
It's good bro, I also tried looking for it as well and couldn't find anything.

没事，兄弟，我也试着找过，但找不到任何东西。

——————5————————

Bob MacKenzie, former Business Owner and Manager. at Private (1973-2017)
鲍勃·麦克肯兹，前私人企业主和经理 (1973-2017)

China is a super power now. It is not yet unrivaled but with its powerful growth still moving at a rate unrivaled and the US prominence fading, China will definitely become unrivaled and it will not take more than 20 years to do it.
The effects of the federal bank pumping endless money into the US system to keep it afloat will come to an end much sooner than we may all think.
2018 could be a pivotal year for the world’s economy. US indebtedness, inflation, military complex control of the budget at a time when rivals with little or no debt are creating an arms race plus internal unrest between the haves and the have nots, is going to exacerbate US decline in 2018. The combined effects could be enough to push it over the edge.

中国现在就是一个超级大国，但还不是无可匹敌的，随着其强劲的增长仍以无与伦比的速度向前发展，美国的影响力在减弱，中国肯定会变得无可匹敌，而且不需要超过20年的时间就能做到这一点。

联邦银行向美国体系注入无止境的资金以维持其运转，其最终影响的到来将比我们想象的要快得多。
2018年可能是世界经济的关键一年。美国受累于债务、通胀、繁杂军事预算，以及上富人和穷人之间的动荡，而与此同时，几乎很少或没有债务的竞争对手正在制造一场军备竞赛，将加剧美国在2018的衰落，这些综合效应可能足以将其推到崩溃的边缘。

——————6————————

Alex Liu, Editor at For Freedom (2013-present)
Alex Liu, 《为自由而战》编辑，2013至今

Yes, China will be an unrivaled superpower if the below fact would not happened.
Family of Yang Gailan with total members of 8: her parents in law, husband, 3 daughters, and 1 son.
The main family income was from her husband with RMB 5,000 (USD 750) per year. If the family was qualified for low income assistant of government, the family could get extra RMB 3,600 (USD 550). It was totally USD 1,300, divided by 8 members, each member with USA 0.45 per day.

是的，如果以下事实不发生，中国将成为一个无与伦比的超级大国。
杨盖兰（音译）的家庭成员共有8人：她自己，继父母，丈夫，3个女儿，和1个儿子。
她的家庭收入主要来自丈夫，每年收入5000元人民币(合750美元)。如果该家庭符合政府低收入保障资格，这个家庭可获得额外的3600元人民币(550美元)，总计1300美元，除以8名成员，每人每天0.45美元。

However, local officials stripped Ms. Yang of welfare benefits two years ago because she did not meet the official standard for poverty, which in China applies to people earning less than $350 per year. This reduced each member ‘s money of Yang’s family to USD 0.25 per day. It was too hard to the family to survive.
In Sep 2016, Ms. Yang killed herself after poisoning her children with pesticides and attacking them with an ax. After 1 week her husband also committed suicide.

然而，两年前，地方官员剥夺了杨女士的福利救济金，因为她不符合官方规定的贫困标准，在中国，这一标准适用于年收入低于350美元的人，这使得杨家每个成员的钱减少到每天0.25美元，这个家庭太难生存了。
2016年9月，杨女士用杀虫剂毒死了她的孩子，用斧头袭击了他们（官员），一周后，她的丈夫也自杀了。

——————7————————

Noel Leong, Chief Financial Officer at Semiconductors
Noel Leong, 半导体公司首席财务官

China was an unrivaled super power but during that time it existed as a myth and legend to most in the West. Then comes the period of long isolation and failure to move with the progress of time. This led to the demise of China in late 19th century and long period of catching up with the rest of the developed world. Fast forward 100 years and there’s every indication that China will once again be a power to be reckoned with in the 21st century. There’s no doubt that China will overtake US as the biggest economy in the world, which it may already has. However, there’s still a great disparity in economic development between different regions in China. If China managed to get all regions to develop into first world economy, it will be unrivaled as an economic power.

中国曾经是一个无可匹敌的超级大国，这段时间里，在大多数西方国家眼里它是一个神话和传说，然后是长期孤立的时期，中国没有随着时间的推移而改变，这导致了中国在十九世纪末的灭亡，并在很长一段时间内追赶其他发达国家。快进100年，就有种种迹象表明，在二十一世纪，中国将再次成为一个不可忽视的大国。毫无疑问，中国将超过美国，成为世界上最大的经济体，而中国可能已经超过了美国，然而，我国各地区之间的经济发展差距仍然很大，如果中国成功地让所有地区发展成为第一世界经济，它将无可匹敌地成为一个经济强国。

As for political and military power, China is still playing catch-up and not at the same level as US, Russia or even India. However, things are changing and China is taking a patient stands in developing its political influence and in modernizing it’s military. The Belt Road initiative would help its to increase its influence from South East Asia to Africa. It could be an unrivaled super power as it was in the 15th century if it is able to keep up with changess in technology and maintain political stability at home.

至于政治和军事实力，中国仍在追赶，还没有与美国、俄罗斯甚至印度在同一水平。然而，情况正在发生变化，中国正在耐心地发展其政治影响力和现代化军事力量。“一带一路”倡议将有助于其从东南亚到非洲的影响力的提升。如果能够跟上科技的进步的步伐，保持国内政治稳定，那么它可能成为像十五世纪那样无与伦比的超级大国。

——————8————————

Shane Dunning：
No. They are due to run out of water in the year 2030. They are also experiencing extremely low birth rates and pollution levels are so high its cities are barely habitable. They are also in 260% debt to GDP ratio so their economy will most likely fall apart and some point when they lose the ability to pay even interest on their debts.

不会。他们将在2030年耗尽水资源。他们也正经历着极低的出生率，而污染水平如此之高，其城市几乎无法居住。他们的债务与GDP之比也达到了260%，因此他们的经济很可能会崩溃，而当他们失去偿还债务利息能力的时候，他们的经济就会崩溃。

——————9————————

Ken Chan：
Simply no. There was not a single unrivaled superpower ever in human history and it is hard to foresee one to come soon. You have the British empire losing USA when it was very powerful and you have NK threatening USA with nuclear weapons now. Even if you have the biggest GDP doesn't mean that you are unrivaled and can do whatever you want.

根本不会。人类历史上从来没有出现过一个单一的无可匹敌的超级大国，很难预见会有一个这样的超级大国会出现。当大英帝国非常强大的时候，美国出现了，至于现在，美国很强大，但朝鲜用核武器威胁着美国，即使你拥有最大的GDP，也并不意味着你是无可匹敌的，可以为所欲为。

——————10————————

Mervyn Locke, Enlightened laowai/Decade-long China resident
默文·洛克，开明老外/定居中国十年之久

Maybe. But it won’t happen overnight. I’d say that if it would happen, it will take at least another 10–20 years.

也许吧，但不会在一夜之间发生。我想说，如果这种情况发生，至少还需要20到20年的时间。

——————11————————

Ludwig Nijholt, works at Marvel: Avengers Alliance
拉德维格·尼科，在漫威：复仇者联盟工作

Given what the US are experiencing in that position, it would not seem the most wise of things to wish for.
Other than that, my glass ball seems to be quite foggy again.

鉴于美国在这个位置上所经历的一切，这似乎不是最明智的选择。
除此之外，我的玻璃球似乎又变得很模糊了。

——————12————————

Noah Zuo, lived in China

Nope.
Aging of population would be the biggest problem of Chinese developing.
I hope China can get over this.

不会。
人口老龄化将是中国发展的最大问题。
我希望中国能克服这一问题。

——————13————————

Cam Iwea：
At the rate it’s debt is increasing, no. Perhaps it can be a superpower, but not “unrivaled”

不，以现在这个速度，中国的债务正在增加，也许它可以是一个超级大国，但不会是“无可匹敌”的。

——————14————————

Xinrui Shang, lives in China
No.China is very traditional，it always follows ancient truth which goes after love and peace.

不会，中国是非常传统的，它总是遵循古老的真理，追求爱与和平。

——————15————————

Ray Comeau, A decade in China, interest in geopolitics
雷·科莫，在中国的十年，对地缘政治感兴趣

A2A
The answer is a definite …… maybe.
There are too many unknown factors at this time to plot a likely outcome.

答案是肯定的……也许吧。
目前有太多未知因素，无法得出可靠的结果。

·  Will China continue to grow economically ….. yes
·  Will China continue to grow militarily ……. yes
·  Will China’s influence continue to grow ….. yes
·  Will India continue to grow economically ……. yes
·  Will the US continue to hold onto it’s economic importance and military power for the time being ……. yes
·  Will the US’s economy and military begin to encounter diminishing returns …….. yes
·  Will the decline in US influence continue slowly, level-off or it will accelerate …… unknown
·  Will alliances the US have be maintainable ….. unknown
·  Will India’s growth be enough to catch China …… unknown
·  Will India’s military be able to table a compliment of modern weaponry ….. unknown
·  Will the gap in technical superiority of US weapons systems, be closed by China ……. yes
·  China welcomes a working partnership with the US; will that continue or change in the future …….. unknown
·  China’s military is primarily for protecting the integrity of China’s territory; will that change in future ……. unknown

· 中国经济会继续增长吗……是。
· 中国在军事上会继续发展吗……是。
· 中国的影响力会继续增长吗……是。
· 印度经济会继续增长吗……是。
· 美国会继续保持其经济重要性和军事实力吗……是。
· 美国的经济和军事是否会开始遭遇回报递减的问题……是。
· 美国影响力将会持续缓慢下降，趋于平稳，还是会加速……未知。
· 美国的联盟会不会得到维护……未知。
· 印度的增长是否足以赶上中国……未知。
· 印度军方是否能提供值得称道的现代武器……未知。
· 美国武器系统的技术优势是否会被中国缩小……是。
· 中国欢迎与美国建立合作伙伴关系；这种伙伴关系将在未来会不会继续或改变……未知。
· 中国军队的主要目的是保护中国领土的完整；这种情况将来会改变吗……未知。