美国在2020年海战中会输给中国吗？ [美国媒体]

Would America Lose the Great Naval War of2020 to China?

美国在2020年海战中会输给中国吗？



Back in the Winter 2010 edition of Orbis, thealways smart James Kraska, at the time an investigator at the Woods HoleOceanographic Institution, presented his readers with a terrifying prospect:the possibility that China would be able sink a U.S. Aircraft Carrier—virtuallyat will. Inprofessional publications, thepossibility had been raised before. However, thanksto various mentions in more-mainstreammedia, the rise of China’s military might—andspecifically advanced missile technology—would soon become a dominant topicof conversation in national-security circles around the globe.

在Orbis的2010年冬季版本中，总是睿智的JamesKraska（当时是伍兹霍尔海洋研究所的调查人员）向读者展现了一个可怕的前景：中国能随意击沉美国航母的可能性。在专业的出版物上，这种可能性之前也被提及过。然而，由于更加主流的媒体经常提及，所以中国军力的崛起——以及特别是中国先进导弹技术的崛起——将在全球的国家安全论坛上成为主要的谈论话题。

Reality Check • 2 hours ago
An aircraft carrier, as a major platform toproject military power, is simply an obsolete concept, at least to other majorpowers. It is even more so when confronting adversaries like China, where thePLA has not only DF-21D, but other missiles such as YJ-12, YJ-18.... All inhuge numbers.
Having realized this, China does not intendto use its aircraft carrier against US carrier battle groups. In fact, even ifUS did not have any carriers, China still would not do so.
During WW II, many aircraft carriers weresunk, there was no country that did not suffer, while Japan lost more thanothers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

航母作为投送军力的主要平台已经成为了一个过时的概念，至少对于其他主要大国来说是这样的。而在面对中国这样的敌人时更是如此，解放军不仅拥有东风21，而且还拥有鹰击12和18，而且数量众多。
在认识到这一点后，中国并不打算用自己的航母来对付美国航母战斗群。实际上，即使美国没有航母，中国也不会出动航母对付美国。
二战期间，很多航母被击沉，几乎所有国家的航母都被击沉过，而日本比其他国家损失更多的航母。https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

S0undGarden Reality Check · an hour ago
Not entirely. I would say having top-notchJet-Fighters patrolling the skies pretty much wherever a Carrier roams is apretty dämn powerful projection. You don't think AA missiles on either a planeor any of the Navy's other platforms could take down a slew of Chinese toys?

并非完全如此。在航母所到之处，我们一流的战机就可以在上空巡逻，这实在是个强大的力量投放。你认为美国战机上或者海军其他作战平台上的空空导弹无法干掉大量的中国玩具？

Reality Check  S0undGarden · an hour ago
What you said is true to countries likeIraq, Libya, Afghanistan.

你说的这个只适用于伊拉克，利比亚和阿富汗。

S0undGarden Reality Check · an hour ago
Consider this: We can move our Fighterswherever we want to ^_~

想想这个：我们可以将战机送到任何一个地方。

Reality Check  S0undGarden  an hour ago
The phrase A2/AD was coined by some USanalyst, not PLA.
You're too much behind.

反通路/区域拒止（A2/AD）是美国分析家创造出来的，而不是解放军创造的。
你真是太弱后了。

Dan H • 3 hours ago
China has one carrier group, the US has 10.So in 5 years, china is going to have parity with the US Navy? What a joke!

中国有一个航母战斗群，美国有10个。5年后，中国就能和美国海军抗衡了？真是个笑话！

Reality Check  Dan H · 2 hours ago
You keep saying simple but stupid things.Read my comment left on this page, and see how I look at it.
You are desperately trying to let Americansbelieve that since China has fewer aircraft carriers than US, it would be OKfor the US to get involved in the war against China, helping Taiwan.
Well, the Americans are not as stupid assomeone like you can make fool of. At least, there are many American analystswho have the right picture already, from decades ago.

你一直在重复简单和愚蠢的话。读读我的评论，看看我的看法。
你急切的想让美国人相信由于中国的航母没有美国多，所以美国可以介入与中国的战争，帮助台湾。
可是美国人可没有蠢到可以让你愚弄。至少，美国分析家几十年前就看清了事实。

Rusty Wyse Dan H · 2 hours ago
No joke. Just remember, a recent articlesaid all U.S. Naval ships have 1970s electronics, and it would require 5billion dollars to upgrade to current modern electronics. Whether our ships'radars can detect the DF-21D coming in will definitely a problem.

不是笑话。最近有一篇文章称美国海军舰艇安装的都是70年代的电子设备，需要5万亿美元才能升级到目前的现代电子设备。我们战舰的雷达能否检测到来袭的东风21D，这确实是个问题。

S0undGarden Rusty Wyse • 2 hours ago
Our capabilities are absolute and entirelycapable. 5 Billion Dollars? Ha! A dime.

以我们的能力，绝对可以做到这一点。5万亿美元？小意思。

Rusty Wyse S0undGarden • 2 hours ago
Yes, yes,...
We were also resolute on December 7, 1941at Pear Harbor.
http://breakingdefense.com/201...
"...Most US ships are still using1970s-vintage electronic defense, chiefly something called theAN/SLQ-32 (“Slick 32″), which have fallen dangerouslybehind rapid, globally available advances in electronics. Potential adversarieslike Russia and China can equip their anti-ship missiles with targeting radarsusing frequencies too high for current US defenses to even detect. US PacificCommand is particularly concerned

“Certaincountries on the Eurasian land mass are building weapons that a SLQ-32 will not detect,” Deputy Chief of Naval Operationsfor resources, Vice Adm. Joseph Mulloy, said at this week’s McAleeseAssociates/Credit Suisse conference. If US ships face these new missileswithout an electronic warfare upgrade, he said, “you will never know whensomething bad is coming, [and] it’s coming in at a supersonic speed.”

..."

是的，是的。。。
1941年12月7号，我们在珍珠港也非常的果敢坚决。
http://breakingdefense.com/201...
“美国大部分战舰依然使用70年代的老旧的电子防御系统，主要是AN/SLQ-32 (“Slick 32″)，与如今的电子设备比起来，已经是大大弱后了。像俄罗斯和中国这样的潜在敌人可以在他们的反舰导弹上安装目标指示雷达，使用高频率从而逃脱美国这种设备的监测。美军太平洋司令部现在非常担忧：
“亚欧大陆的某些国家现在正在建造的武器是SLQ-32无法检测到的，”海军作战资源部副部长在本周的一次会议上说道。如果美国舰艇在没有进行电子更新的情况下面临这些新导弹的话，他说“那意味着你永远不知道糟糕的事情什么时候来临，而且其来袭的速度是超音速的。”

MMCRailgun Rusty Wyse • an hour ago
First off, and less outrageous, let me justsay that upgrading our electronics, since we are the most overall advancednation on earth, would not be to much of a problem.
Worse though was how you said we wereabsolute before Pearl Harbor. Are you serious? The US had built considerableforces but we never maintained the status of a dominant military power untilafter WWII.

由于总体来说我们是世界上最先进的国家，所以升级电子设备对于我们来说不是个大问题。
更糟糕的是你说我们在珍珠港之前非常的坚决。你是认真的吗？之前美国确实是成立了一支规模巨大的部队，但是直到二战之后我们才获得世界第一军事强国的地位。

Rusty Wyse MMCRailgun • an hour ago
I believe the article said the 5 billiondollar cost is the problem. We haven't got the money to do that.
1970s electronics against China's mach 10speed weapons!!!! And you still say "...we are the most overall advancednation on earth"...???
This is why China is still building artificialislands and we can not do anything about it.

我认为文章说得没错，5万亿美元对我们来说确实是个问题。我们没有那么多钱。
70年代的电子设备对抗中国10马赫的超音速武器！！！然后你还说“总体来说我们是世界上最先进的国家”？？？
这就是中国仍然在建造人工岛屿而我们对其无能为力的原因所在。

MMCRailgun Rusty Wyse • 39 minutes ago
Dude, do you know what our military budgetis? Shifting 5 billion dollars over, say, a 5 year period would not bedifficult at all and would get us the necessary upgrade. And your mach 10 bit?Go ahead and tell me how operational and how widely deployed that is. Go ahead.

伙计，你知道我们的军事预算是多少吗？以5年时间来平摊这5万亿美元对我们来说并不困难，从而对我们的军力进行必要的提升。你说中国的10马赫武器？告诉我这种武器能进行实际战斗了吗，被广泛部署了吗？

Dodo • an hour ago
Depend on where is the battle field.
Near Chinese coast, perhaps already butlikely in 5 years, US navy will lose.
In Mid of Pacific, likely, even 10 yearslater, US still likely to win.
My humble opinion is that China doesn't andwill not have enough capability to transport lots of weapons to Mid Pacific. Onthe other hand, if US fleet (include submarine) sail near Chinese coast, theyare in range of many Chinese weapons.
I don't think that current Chinese leadersreally want to conduct arm race with USA nor do they want to occupy far awayland. It would bankrupt China as prudent usually exists in first phase of a newpower's arise. Craziness usually happens in last stage. They do like to expelUS military from its coast and build more nuclear weapons as deterrence - tomake US hawks forget a large scale war with it.
So far, China is also smart and prudentenough not to build tactic nuclear weapons. From what I read, they only buildstrategic (usually large) nuclear weapons as guarantee and second strike ofmutual destruction. In reality, there is little chance to use tactic nuclearweapons yet a nation needs to waste lots of soldiers to guard them.

那要看战场在哪里。
如果在中国海岸附近，5年后，美国海军会输。
如果是在太平洋中部，即使是10年后，美国也依然可能赢。
以我之见，中国无法将大量武器运到太平洋中部。另一方面，如果美国舰队（包括潜艇）在中国海岸附近航行，那么中国很多武器都可以打到美国舰队。

我认为中国领导人现在不想和美国进行武器竞赛，也不想占领遥远的土地。那会让中国破产的，因为新势力在刚刚崛起时都要保持谨慎。只有到了后期才会变得狂热。他们确实想将美军驱逐出自己的海岸并建立更多的核武器来作为威慑力量——打消美国鹰派发起大规模战争的想法。
目前为止，中国既明智又谨慎，所以没有建造战术核武器。据我了解，中国只建造了战略核武器，以作为一种保障，或者说让自己具备二次的互毁袭击能力。实际上，使用战术核武器的机会几乎没有，而且一个国家还要浪费很多士兵来保卫这些武器。