眼下的贸易战能推迟中国制造具有竞争力的宽体客机那一天的到来吗？ [美国媒体]

Can a tradewar now defer the day when China makes competitive wide-body jets?

眼下的贸易战能推迟中国制造具有竞争力的宽体客机那一天的到来吗？

One of thestated aims of the Trump trade sanctions is to get China to respect USintellectual property protection.

特朗普实施的贸易制裁所声称目标之一，就是要中国尊重美国的知识产权保护。

Many U.S. firms have been willing to transfertechnology in return for access to China’s labor and consumer markets.

很多美国公司都愿意接受技术转让，以换取获得中国的劳动力和消费市场。

US sanctions did hurt ZTE.

美国的制裁确实对ZTE（中兴科技）造成了损害。

Most companies are not as protective as SpaceXabout innovation and are not making as much innovation

很多公司都没有像SpaceX那样保护自己的创新，也没有太大的创新。

In 2012, Elon Musk said SpaceX did not have anyinterest in holding patents. A “We have essentially no patents in SpaceX,” Musktold Wired . “Our primary long-term competition is in China-if we publishedpatents, it would be farcical, because the Chinese would just use them as arecipe book.”

2012年，Elon Musk说SpaceX没兴趣持有专利。“SpaceX中基本上没有专利。”Musk对《连线》杂志说：“我们的长期竞争对手在中国——如果我们公布专利，就太可笑了，因为中国人用起我们的专利就像用菜谱一样。”

US andEurope have competitive passenger jets

美国和欧洲都拥有具有竞争力的喷气式客机

Since both Europe and the US both havecompetitive passenger jets, it seems that China and Russia know exactly wherethey need to improve in engines and materials to make a competitive passengerjet.

由于欧洲和美国都拥有具有竞争力的喷气式客机，似乎中国和俄罗斯都很清楚自己需要提高发动机和材料性能才能制造具有行政历的喷气式客机。
Europe was able to catch up to Boeing with theAirbus project so there it seems reasonable that China and Russia will succeedwith their $20 billion project to develop competitive passenger jets.

欧洲投资了空客，因此有能力与波音匹敌，因此中国和俄罗斯投资200亿美元研发具有竞争力的喷气式客机似乎也很合理。

Chinaand Russia have $20 billion project to crack the passenger jet market

中国和俄罗斯投资200亿美元撬开喷气式客机市场

China, Russia and some western suppliers areteaming up on a $20 billion project to replicate the success of Airbus andachieve a major breakthrough into the passenger jet market.

中国、俄罗斯和一些西方供应商联手投资200亿美元，企图复制空客公司的成功，并在喷气式客机市场获得重大突破。

The China-Russia Commercial AircraftInternational Corporation Limited (CRAIC) 50-50 joint venture was launched onMay 22, 2017 in Shanghai, targeting a 2025-2028 maiden flight and firstdelivery. It aims to take 10% of a market dominated by Boeing and Airbus of9,100 widebodies over 20 years through 2035, with a plane 10-15% cheaper torun. Based in Shanghai where the assembly line will be located, CRAIC willoversee the programme : technology development, manufacturing, marketing,sales, customer services, and programme management. The fuselage will bealuminum, total investment will be $13-20 billion.

中俄商用飞机有限公司（CRAIC）是中俄各拥有一半股权的合资企业，于2017年5月22日在上海成立，目标是在2025-2028年间进行首飞并首次交付客机。该公司目标是在截止2035年由波音和空客统治的9100架宽体客机市场中占据10%的市场份额，且单机运行成本低10-15%。基于未来的飞机装配线位于上海，CRAIC将包含完整的开发过程：技术研发、制造、营销、销售、用户服务以及项目管理。新型客机的材料为铝，整体投资将达到130-200亿美元。

Airbus is a European joint venture which tookbillions in funding to capture about 10-20% of the passenger jet market overthe first twenty years before breaking through to get about 50% of the market.

空客公司是一家欧洲合资企业，花费了数十亿美元，用了20年时间获得了10-20%的喷气式客机市场份额，随后才得以突破占有了大约50%的市场份额。

For 2023–45, UAC and Comac forecast a 7,000widebodies demand for $1.5 trillion – an average of $214 million, their goalfor first delivery is 2027. The 280 passengers capacity over 12,000 km iscomparable to the Airbus A330-900 but with a nine-abreast economy seating, theshrink would seat 230 while the stretch 320.

UAC（俄罗斯联合航空制造集团公司）和Comac（中国商飞公司）预计在2023-2045年间将需要7000架宽体客机，价值约1.5万亿美元——平均单价约为2.14亿美元，CRAIC的目标是在2027年进行首飞。能够搭载280名乘客飞行1.2万公里，足以匹敌空客A330-900型客机，而且拥有9排经济舱座椅，最少能坐230人，最多可坐320人。


1楼Deserttrek
china's civilaviation industry is far far behind

中国的民用航空工业还差得远呢。

the fastest way for them to catch up is the demands to build in china whichlets them steal

对他们来说，在中国制造赶上技术要求的飞机的最快捷途径，就是让他们偷。

ThePlebLegate回复Deserttrek
exactly, Ithink the question of the article title would be....CAN China build a wide bodyjet that anyone would want to buy? These things have to bear as near flawlessas one can get because of the sheer amount of use they get. Shoddy constructionor lax material standards and service will just result in deaths and sour thebuying relationship. 

确切的说，我认为文章标题问题的意思是——中国真能建造他人想购买的宽体喷气客机吗？如果有人想买，客机必须是近乎毫无缺陷的，因为会有很多人乘坐。豆腐渣工程或者不够严格的材料标准和服务只会导致死亡，并且恶化与买方的合作关系。
Likewise, China seems to be betting on slow landlocked train travel as itsmeans to mobility. So even China doesn't seem to have much faith in an airline industry.

而且，中国似乎更注重于低速的陆地火车旅行作为人群的迁移手段。所以中国似乎并没有对航空工业更有信心。

2楼与1楼重复，不再复述。

3楼Mark Stewart
Brazil makepassenger jets so I would assume that China eventually will. Just know thatthere are economical traps waiting for the Chinese. There is the middle incometrap. And then the Japanese real estate trap and the Japanese too much of myeconomy depends on export trap. Then there is the regular business cycle traps.And the most of my population are seniors trap. And the Communist party isafraid of losing power trap. And of course there is the usual trap of theChinese turning inward at the cusp of world domination trap.

巴西能生产喷气式客机，所以我认为中国最终也能生产。只是我知道有很多经济陷阱在等着中国人跳呢。有中等收入陷阱，然后是日本人的房地产陷阱和日本人的过度依赖出口陷阱。紧接着还有正常的商业周期陷阱。还有老年化危机陷阱。还有共产党害怕失去权力的陷阱。当然，还有中国会在统治世界的风口浪尖上转向内部的陷阱。
（译者注：最后那句话嘛意思？？请教大能）

riff_raff99 回复Mark Stewart
Ifestablished OEMs like McDonnell-Douglas and Lockheed could not remaincompetitive in the wide-body commercial aircraft market, what makes you thinkChinese companies would fare any better?

如果像麦道公司和洛克希德公司这样的OEM厂商都没法在宽体商用客机市场保持竞争力，你为啥认为中国公司能干的更好？

Deserttrek回复Mark Stewart
Embraer isnow partnering with Boeing. Boeing does not make regional jets and Embraer is agood fit for marketing and development

巴西航空现在与波音是合作关系。波音并不生产支线飞机，而巴西航空对于市场和研发来说是很有益的。

4楼Luca Mazza
Chinais already selling their C919 jet to customers now , we do notneee to wait until 2020s. I think the main issue here is that the turbine motoris still GE made when they will be able to develop their own they will be ableto sell to Iran as well. Cant wait !

眼下中国早已向用户销售他们的C919型客机了，我们根本不需要等到2020年代。我认为这里的主要问题是，该客机的发动机仍然是GE的，而他们将有能力研发自己的发动机，并且销售给伊朗。再别等了！

Deserttrek回复Luca Mazza
the customersare Chinese carriers who are mandated to by an amout

用户是中国航空公司，它们被要求购买一定数量的飞机。

Luca Mazza回复Deserttrek
until chinamake their own

直到中国造出自己的。

Jim回复Luca Mazza
You might beable to produce more sophisticated aircraft sooner. It all depends on whenyou'll be able to steal the technology.

你或许能够很快造出更为先进的飞行器，这完全取决于你何时能偷到技术。

Luca Mazza回复Jim
We will tryour best t to do it as soon as we can dude

所以我们要尽快尽全力阻止。

5楼WarrenTheApe
We have lawsforbidding companies from bribing in international trade. Chinese forced IP transfersare a form of bribery. The prosecutions should start, immediately.

我们有法律禁止公司在国际贸易中行贿。中国强迫知识产权转移就是一种贿赂。该起诉了，马上。

Joe Wong 回复WarrenTheApe
There is noprosecution, it proves the forced IP transfers is fabricated allegation justlike fabricated phantom WMD allegation against Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi.American is liar.

没起诉这回事儿，就证明了强迫技术转让是捏造的指控，就像捏造指控欧冠萨达姆侯赛因和卡扎菲拥有大规模杀伤性武器一样。美国撒谎。

WarrenTheApe回复Joe Wong
Keep it up,wu mau!

继续坚持吧，五毛！

6楼anthropic
To the extentthat the Chinese government funds development of competitive wide body jets,the flying public benefits.

一方面，中国政府资助有竞争力的宽体喷气式客机开发，乘客们会受益。

However, to the extent that Western companies cooperate with the Chinese intransferring technology, they are being foolish. In the long run, China's goalis to do it all

然而，另一方面，要是与中国合作的西方公司进行技术转移的话，他们就太蠢了。长期来说，中国的目标是完全自行制造。