特朗普的贸易战将对美国经济造成多大的伤害（上） [美国媒体]

How much will the Trump trade war hurt the USA economy?

特朗普的贸易战将对美国经济造成多大的伤害？




Alfonso Llanes, Political junkie
The losers in this action by Trump will be the industries that depend on steel and aluminum which will face higher prices. That means some of the nation’s largest industries: automobile, aircraft, heavy machinery and heavy equipment manufacturing industries. These manufacturers that use steel and aluminum for their products are significantly larger than are steel and aluminum producers. Statistically, steel imports are only about one-third of what US industry needs and so, the tariff would not apply to domestic steel production. Aluminum is a different matter for only 10 percent is produced domestically.
WTO RULES
The World Trade Organization (WTO) agreement states that countries are free to take actions they consider critical to their security interests. However, WTO members are very cautious about using this provision because of the dire consequences to trade and the implications it can provoke. It follows that China, India, Brazil and other countries are just as capable of making such fake claims based on similar national security rationales for restricting imports. The provision of law that Trump is relying on for the imposition of this new tariffs is “Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 which allows imports to be blocked on national security grounds. “Previous administrations had interpreted the provision narrowly, requiring evidence that the military needs or strategic industries could not be supplied by U.S. production. 
The US Commerce Department under Trump is disregarding a half century of precedent by finding that steel imports coming from the most-trusted U.S. allies, such as Canada and the EU need be taxed. The risk assessment of Trump’s action is hard to quantify for the affected countries can easily retaliate by imposing tariffs on American goods. Moreover, tariffs could be imposed on targeted goods in order to cause economic and political sting. American exporters of all economic sectors should be weary of steps that might follow whether they are exporters of agricultural products or aerospace vehicles for once wars is started it is impossible to predict how it will end as history indicates from the 1930′s world economy experience.
The invocation of national security concerns by Trump could be used as a precedent in which other nations might be willing to use national security as grounds for tariffs, and thus, neutralizing the ability of the World Trade Organization to arbitrate disputes. Whether a hot war or a trade war neither case is as easy as Trump claims it to be for our historical record indicates that wars in general have been started by either madness or stupidity.
In “The Art of War,” Sun Tzu states that "Every battle is won or lost before it's ever fought". Détente was used during the cold war for easing strained relations, especially, in using the threat of a pre-empty attack. Today, a battle space has many dimensions which now include cyberspace. The defensive plan may not survive first contact with an adversary, but the general staff will quickly formulates a new plan and adapt making the evolving plan a part of the plan as the pieces move before the actual battle begins. In this scenario, it would be foolish to predict the outcome of a battle where the enemy is fully committed to fight back in any way they can and with whatever resources they muster together. China today is not an underdog to be bullied.
A report last week states that China’s government is contemplating reducing its purchases of U.S. treasury bonds and briefly rattled financial markets. Against the tensions between the two countries, it was widely understood as a warning that aggressive American action on trade might jeopardize the willingness of China to subsidize the drunken spending of the U.S. government.
China is now, and has been for a decade, the largest foreign buyer of U.S. treasury debt, with Japan being a close second. The Chinese central bank has halted new purchases and sold old holdings, each time the Trump administration rattles noise about China, which triggers concerns in U.S. economic
China’s foreign currency reserves now stand at more than $3 trillion. In contrast, the U.S. has foreign exchange reserves that hover at around $120 billion. Trump’s tariffs would automatically trigger penalties against the U.S. in the World Trade Organization (WTO), and might even lead to serious disruption of WTO’s years of negotiating or total collapse, which would inevitably lead to higher world tariffs against U.S. exports. Even if it doesn’t take place immediately the sense of turmoil to come would be enough to trigger dire uncertainty for American business and employment. China, on the other hand with a centralized party government system has a better probability of surviving the hard blow of global trade disruptions.
“The only way to deal with a trade deficit is raise savings and investment rates,” Lardy said recently, referring to the reason deficits occur. In other words, Americans are consuming and spending more than they produce.” Lardy continues “It’s a strategy that’s almost certain to fail, that’s because U.S. trade deficits are largely the result of the shortfall in national savings relative to investments — a long-running imbalance that isn’t likely to change any time soon. Everything is working against Trump’s announced obxtive.”
Trump Tax Cuts are a Walk on the Brink
Can America under Trump win a trade war with China? One option to be considered might have a nuclear effect on world economy and that is— China’s dumping US debt and replacing its dollars holdings with another reserve currency. By planning to add to the bulging US debt newly printed $2 trillion dollars, the GOP is putting the US at the mercy of its debtors mainly China and Japan. Trump, ignorant of world economics hinted he wanted to renegotiate the US debt during his electoral campaign which was quickly walked back. Nevertheless, in the eyes of other world leaders Trump’s views of a US empire able to do as it pleases and seeking to negotiate sensitive world problems with the same grandiloquence and bully in the room as he negotiates a land deal or a new hotel with a weaker side is totally irresponsible conduct for his handlers.

特朗普此举中的输家将是依赖钢铁和铝的行业，这些行业将面临更高的价格。这意味着美国一些最大的产业：汽车、飞机、重型机械和重型设备制造业。这些使用钢铁和铝制造产品的制造商要比钢铁和铝的生产商大得多。据统计，美国钢铁进口量仅为美国工业需求的三分之一，因此，关税将不适用于国内钢铁生产。铝是另一回事，因为只有10%的铝是由国内生产的。

WTO规则
世界贸易组织协定规定，各国可自由采取它们认为对其安全利益至关重要的行动。然而，世贸组织成员对于使用这一规定非常谨慎，因为这会对贸易造成严重后果，也可能引起其他影响。由此可以看出，中国、印度、巴西和其他国家同样有能力根据类似的国家安全理由，对进口进行限制。特朗普在征收这一新关税时所依赖的法律条款是“1962贸易扩张法”第232条，该条款允许以国家安全为由禁止进口。他说：“前几届政府对这一条款的解释很狭隘，要求有证据证明美国的生产不能满足军事需要或战略工业。”
特朗普领导下的美国商务部无视半个世纪的先例，发现需要对来自加拿大和欧盟等最受信任的美国盟友的钢铁进口进行征税。对特朗普行为的风险评估很难量化，因为受影响的国家很容易通过对美国商品征收关税来报复。此外，他们也可能对有针对性的货物征收关税，以便对美国造成经济和政治上的影响。美国所有经济部门的出口商可能都会厌倦这些措施，无论他们是农产品出口商还是航空航天飞行器出口商，因为一旦战争爆发，就不可能像历史从1930世界经济经验中所显示的那样，预测战争将如何结束。

特朗普援引国家安全关切征收关税可能成为其他国家愿意以国家安全作为征收关税的理由的先例，从而消除了世界贸易组织仲裁争端的能力。无论是一场激烈的战争还是一场贸易战，都没有特朗普宣称的那样容易，因为我们的历史记录表明，战争一般都是由疯狂或愚蠢引发的。

在“战争的艺术”中，孙子说：“每一场战斗都是在战斗之前就知道胜负了”。冷战期间，缓和关系是为了缓和紧张的关系，特别是在利用空前绝后的攻击威胁的时候。今天，一个战斗空间包含许多方面，现在包括网络空间。防御计划可能无法从与对手的第一次接触中幸存，但是，总参谋部将很快制定新计划，并在实际战斗开始前，将不断发展的计划作为计划的一部分加以调整。在这种情况下，预测一场战斗的结果是愚蠢的，在这场战斗中，敌人会尽一切努力，用他们所聚集的一切资源进行反击。今天的中国不是一个能被任意欺负的失败者。

上周的一份报告称，中国政府正在考虑减少购买美国国债的计划，并短暂地扰乱了金融市场。针对两国之间的紧张局势，人们普遍认为这是一个中国对美国在贸易方面的激进行动可能会危及中国补贴美国政府胡乱消费的意愿的警告。

中国现在是美国国债最大的外国买家，而且过去十年来一直是这样，日本是紧随其后的第二位。中国央行已经停止了对美国国债新的购买，并出售了旧的资产。每一次特朗普政府对中国的喧嚣都会引发美国经济的担忧。

中国外汇储备目前已超过三万亿美元。相比之下，美国外汇储备的规模约为一千二百亿美元。特朗普的关税将自动触发对美国在世界贸易组织的惩罚，甚至可能导致世贸组织多年谈判的严重中断或彻底崩溃。这将不可避免地导致世界对美国出口产品征收更高的关税。即使这种情况没有立即发生，未来的动荡感也足以引发美国企业和就业的可怕不确定性。另一方面，中国实行中央政府政制，更有可能在全球贸易中断的沉重打击中幸存下来。

拉迪最近说：“解决贸易逆差的唯一办法是提高储蓄和投资率。”指出了出现赤字的原因。换句话说，美国人的消费和花费超过了生产。拉迪继续说：“这一策略几乎肯定会失败，因为美国的贸易赤字很大程度上是由于国民储蓄相对于投资的短缺--这是一个长期的结果。这种不平衡不太可能很快改变。所有这一切都在和特朗普宣布的目标背道而驰。”

特朗普的减税是一次冒险
特朗普领导下的美国能否赢得与中国的贸易战？一个需要考虑的、可能会对世界经济产生核爆般的影响的选择是，中国抛售美国债务，并以另一种储备货币取代其持有的美元。通过计划增加新印刷的2万亿美元的美国债务，共和党正把美国置于中国和日本的债务人的摆布之下。对世界经济一无所知的特朗普暗示，他想在即将到来的竞选活动中重新谈判美国债务。然而，在其他世界领导人看来，特朗普仿佛是一个能够随心所欲的美国帝国的代表，并试图以同样的盛气凌人和欺凌来谈判敏感的世界问题。正如他与弱者谈判土地交易或新酒店时，对它们的拥有者来说，这完全是不负责任的行为。

Joheb Abedin, works at Softlith Services
The US economy might tumble due to the recent environment for the past few weeks.
1.The start to the second quarter of 2018 was not up to the mark as a lot of news hit the market. There was a lot of sell-offs following the news which resulted in a lot of volatility in the market & creating a negative sentiment in the market. 
#PresidentTrump unveiled plans to impose tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese imports, #China responded with plans to tax a matching $50 billion of US products, including beef, cars, planes, soybeans, and whiskey which intensified the #TradeWar situation.
2.Amazon also faced a lot of criticism on Twitter from #President. In his tweets, he stated that the #USPostalService was losing $1.50 on an average on each delivery. He also said that the e-commerce giant pays less tax than normal retail service and it is killing the retail business. It resulted in the high sell-off volumes.
3.Apple, on the other hand, plans to use customized chips in their MAC computers instead of Intel.
4.Financial sector and the Tech sector faced heavy correction in the recent days due the above circumstances
5.Even with this volatility in the market, there are a few sectors who are not much affected such as Utility sector, the Defense sector, and the Health sector. It is good to invest in the "defensive stocks" right now as it is more stable.

因为最近几周的环境，美国经济可能会走向下行。
1.2018第二季度的开局没有达到目标，因为有很多打击市场的新闻。消息传出后，市场上出现了大量抛售，导致市场波动很大&在市场上造成了负面情绪。

比如：#特朗普总统公布了对中国500亿美元进口产品征收关税的计划，#中国的回应是，计划向美国产品征税500亿美元，其中包括牛肉、汽车、飞机、大豆和威士忌，这加剧了#“贸易战”的局面。

2.亚马逊在Twitter上也面临着来自#总统的许多批评。在他的推特，他说，# uspostalservice（美国邮政）每次运送平均损失1.5美元。他还表示，这家电子商务巨头支付的税款比普通零售服务少，而且正在扼杀零售业务。这导致了大量的抛售。

3.另一方面，苹果计划在他们的MAC电脑中使用自己定制的芯片，而不再是英特尔的芯片。
4.由于上述情况，金融界和科技业最近几天都面临着严重的调整。
5.即使市场出现这种波动，也有少数几个部门没有受到多大影响，如公用事业部门、国防部门和卫生部门。现在投资“防御性股票”是件好事，因为它更稳定。

Manuel Cisneros
Trump's goals are stop trade deficit with China while protecting local producers and improve employment. Apparently, it sounds good but…
First, we need to understand that a trade deficit is not really that important. Increasing imports could easily mean an increase in domestic consumption, investments and exports, thus more taxes collection, and so more healthy public investments. So if you raise imports for example in 10 units, the other variables of GDP could be increasing 100 units, and so wealth (production) has a net increase of 90.
Why is there a positive correlation between imports and the other four variables of GDP? Because, assuming no barriers exist, i.e. no tariffs, then all domestic companies will look for new ways to optimize production costs and many times the suppliers are abroad. When these companies optimize their costs, they can lower selling prices. So consumers will pay less and have more money for other uses, thus expanding economy and making room for other businesses.
By the contrary, if you set higher tariffs to protect a certain group of domestic companies, you interrupt optimization and so production costs increase and so do prices of final products. Then consumers will have less money for many other products they used to buy and so many companies will sell less, will have to reduce work force and some will go out of business.
Off course there are winners with these policies but only for a few years. A group of companies that are now protected by those tariffs will receive a strong benefit as they now don't need to compete with lower costs suppliers from other countries. So they will sell more, produce more, hire more and invest more.
So there is a group of losers and a group of winners. Losers are all those who purchase products that have a component that will now have a tariff, plus, and here is the key, plus the rest of the companies that will sell less as there is less money in consumers pockets or bank accounts. All those other companies will have a decline in sales and will eventually need to deinvest and fire personnel.
The negative effect of the losers will, by far, outweigh the positive effect of the winners. Plus winners will have a good situation in the first few years but they will see a slowdown when the lossers cannot continue sustaining loses and start closing businesses and firing people, and so economy enters a recession.
All that is only assuming that Trump sets higher tariffs. If you add the effect of a trade war, that is that other countries begin raising tariffs for American exports, then the effect will be much worse.
If you understand this, then you understand Capitalism. It has nothing to do with ideologies, is just pragmatism and thinking in favor of majorities.
What was lacking before this, were public actions to change skills and education for those industrial workers and former industrial cities that stopped being competitive against China or other countries. They needed help to adapt to new economies, to new needs. But very little was done. Nevertheless, as a whole, US is better and wealthier than before globalization.
I hope that Americans will learn soon about the negative effects of these erroneous policies, and will soon return to become the strongest advocates of a free world.

特朗普的目标是阻止与中国贸易赤字的同时保护当地生产者和改善就业。显然，这听起来很不错，但是…

首先，我们必须明白，贸易逆差并不是很重要。增加进口可以很容易地意味着国内消费、投资和出口的增加，从而征收更多的税收，从而增加了健康的公共投资。因此，如果你增加10个单位的进口，GDP的其他变量可能是增加100个单位，财富(生产)则有90个单位的净增长。

为什么进口与GDP的其他四个变量之间存在正相关？因为，假设不存在任何障碍，即不征收关税，那么所有国内公司都将寻找优化生产成本的新方法，而供应商很多时候都在国外。当这些公司优化他们的成本，他们可以降低销售价格。因此，消费者将更少地支付更多的钱用于其他用途，从而能扩大经济规模和为其他企业腾出空间。

相反，如果你设定更高的关税来保护某一批国内公司，你就会中断优化，从而导致生产成本增加，最终产品的价格也会随之上涨。这样，消费者购买他们以前购买的其他产品的钱就会减少，所以很多公司的销售将会减少，劳动力将不得不减少，有些甚至将会倒闭。
当然，也有依靠这些政策的赢家，但只有几年。现在受到这些关税保护的一些公司将获得巨大的好处，因为它们现在不需要与来自其他国家的低成本供应商竞争。所以他们会卖出更多，生产更多，雇佣更多，投资更多。

所以这么做会导致一批输家和一批赢家。都是那些购买产品的人，这些产品都将减少销售，因为消费者口袋或银行账户中的钱更少了。所有这些公司的销售额都会下降，最终需要撤资和解雇员工。

所有这些只是假设的前提是特朗普设定了更高的关税。如果再加上贸易战的影响，即其他国家开始提高美国出口关税，那么后果就会更糟。

如果你理解了这一点，那么你就理解了资本主义。这与意识形态无关，只与实用主义和考虑多数人的意见有关。

在此之前，缺少的是改变那些不再与中国或其他国家竞争的产业工人和前工业城市的技能和教育的公共行动。他们需要帮助以适应新的经济和新的需要。但政府对此做的很少。然而,总体而言，美国现在比全球化之前更好、更富有。

我希望美国人能尽快了解这些错误政策的负面影响，并快速恢复为自由世界的最强有力的倡导者。