因为特朗普对中国货物的关税，中国民族主义者有多大可能对美国公司做出反应和抵制？下 [美国媒体]

What is the likelihood that there will be a Chinese nationalist reaction and boycott of US companies because of Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods?

因为特朗普对中国货物的关税，中国民族主义者有多大可能对美国公司做出反应和抵制？下




Joseph Wang, studied at Ph.D Astronomy UT Austin, Physics MIT（在德州大学奥斯汀分校攻读天文学博士，MIT学习物理学）
Very low to non-existent. It turns out that most people aren't directly affected, and the Chinese official media seems to be downplaying everything.
One thing that I find interesting is that compared to the amount if noise it's making in the United States, no one on this side of the globe thinks it's a big deal.
The tone of the Chinese media is partly that China is powerful enough so that what the US does, just does not matter any more. So let Trump play his games, China does not care.
The other message that China is presenting is that China is predictable and reliable. That is to say that if you do business with China you just don't have to worry about things changing on a whim.

可能性很低，甚至不存在。事实证明，大多数人并没有直接受到影响，中国官方媒体似乎在淡化一切。
我觉得有趣的一点是，与美国的煞有其事相比，地球的这一边没有人认为这件事有多么大不了。
中国媒体的论调是，这种情况部分是由于中国现在足够强大，所以无论美国做什么，都不再重要了。所以让特朗普玩他的游戏，中国不在乎。
中国发出的另一个信息是，中国是可以预见的，而且是可靠的。这就是说如果你与中国做生意，你就不用担心事情会随意改变。

William Regan, I've been living in China for seven years.（我已经在中国生活了七年。）
What is the likelihood that there will be a Chinese nationalist reaction and boycott of US companies because of Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods
I don’t think there will be much of a reaction. In the past few years, the government has let the people protest Japan (over the Diaoyu Islands) and protest the South China Sea ruling. (China always says to respect international norms and rule of law — oh wait…) The government even stoked the flames themselves a bit. I remember in Guangzhou people were running around, looting Japanese restaurants and destroying Japanese cars.
Anyways, I don’t think Xi wants any trouble right now. He just consolidated his power. Trump is about to meet with Kim Jong Un. Things are going in his favor — so why roll the dice over this comparatively trivial issue He can hit back quietly — but why make a huge deal of it
Think about it. Some Chinese people get angry and end up looting some Apple or Microsoft stores. One American dies somewhere. It would be terrible optics for Xi. If I were him, I’d play it low key — and not let any protests get out of hand — while waiting for the midterm elections and the FBI’s investigation to either conclude or bring serious charges on Trump.
I honestly think Trump just wants to “appear” tough on China instead of actually being tough on China. I also don’t think Boeing, Apple, Ford, or any other large US corporation with so much to lose, would let Trump completely spoil their plans for China.
If I were China — I’d stymie any forms of protest. Then, I’d lodge more complaints with the WTO and maybe fire back with a few retaliatory tariffs while waiting for Trump to lose the next election or be removed from office.

我觉得不会有太多反应。在过去几年，中国政府已经放任人们对日本（对钓鱼岛问题）和南海裁决发起抗议。（中国一贯主张尊重国际准则和法治，哦等等……）政府甚至自己都进行了一点火上浇油。我记得在广州，人们四处奔走，抢劫日本的餐馆并破坏日本汽车。
无论如何，我不认为中国现在希望出现任何麻烦。他刚刚巩固他的权力。特朗普即将会见金囧恩。事情对他有利——所以为什么要在这个次要问题上节外生枝呢？他可以迅速的回击，但是为什么要大动干戈呢？

想象一下。有些中国人被惹怒，并最终去抢劫某些苹果或者微软店铺。一个美国人死在某个地方。这对中国而言将是严重的事情。如果我是他，我会低调行事，并且不让任何事情脱出掌控，同时等候中期选举，以及FBI的调查结果，要么得出结论，要么对特朗普提出严重的指控。
我其实觉得特朗普只想对中国“表现得”强硬，而不是真正对中国强硬。我也觉得波音、苹果、福特或者美国任何其他大公司会忍受如此大的损失，放任特朗普彻底的破坏他们在中国的计划。
如果我是中国，我会制止任何形式的抗议。然后我会在WTO提出更多抗议，也许还会用少量报复性关税来回击，并且等着特朗普输掉下一次选举或者被赶下台。

Katie Pedro, VP Operations, China at KSV eSports (2018-present)
For this question I went to random Weibo posting in response to Trump's announcement about Tariff on 600 billion Chinese imports. Surprisingly I only see one response who said heshe will stop buying iPhone. The rest are divided into three camps of roughly equal numbers, one get furious about the move and pretty much aligned with Chinese government's line, i.e no winners in trade war. The second is passimisic that China will suffer more than Americans, very much aligned with what Trump's believe. The third camp is supporting the US's stance in putting tarrif on China's goods. This must be a surprise to none Chinese. But it is what I saw in Weibo.
So I guess the answer is no, there will be some nationalistic reaction and negligible boycott on American goods.

为了回答这个问题，我随便找了个发布了“特朗普宣布对6000亿中国进口产品征收关税”消息的微博。我惊奇的发现，只有一个回复说他她会不再买iPhone。剩下的分成三个阵营，人数差不多相同，一个阵营对这个行动大发雷霆，与中国政府的口径相当一致，即“贸易战争没有赢家”。第二个阵营表示悲观，认为中国会比美国人遭受更多的痛苦，与特朗普的想法十分统一。第三个阵营支持美国对中国货物征收关税的立场。这对于非中国人而言肯定很惊奇。但这就是我在微博上看到的情况。
所以我觉得回答是不会，可能会有一些民族主义反应和微不足道的对美国货的抵制活动。

Yi Liu, lived in China
Xi and Trump are shaping the world and exchanging benifits as same as what Stalin with Roosevelt did.
Trump allied with 5 eyes countries is containing EU ( supported by Wall Street) without china’s Interfere on condition that he leaves west pacific to China- withdraw its army from there.
The US is too weak to be hegemony now, it needs time to rehabilitate. But the 5 eyes ally as an isolated market is not big enough to compete with China, you see, Wall Street with global resources is defeated in recent years. So with EU , the actual colony of the US, if Trump reform its own economical,social and political structures successfully, it will have a chance to be great again.
China is so confident that it owns more advanced culture and governance , it is not afraid of the US great again, it came to this deal easily.
The above explains almost every weird international affairs….you name it, you get it.

中国和特朗普正在塑造世界并交换利益，就像斯大林和罗斯福做过的那样。
特朗普与五眼国家结盟，正在吞并欧盟（在华尔街的支持之下），让中国袖手旁观，条件是美国将西太平洋留给中国，它从那里撤出军队。
现在的美国太弱小不足以制霸，它需要时间休养生息。但5眼联盟作为一个孤立市场不够大，不能与中国竞争，可以看到，近年来拥有全球资源的华尔街已经被打败。所以如果有了欧盟——它实际上是美国的殖民地，如果特朗普能够成功完成其经济、社会和政治结构改革，美国还有机会再次伟大。
中国对于它拥有更加先进的文化和治理制度十分自信，它并不害怕美国的再次伟大，这个交易很容易达成。
上面的内容几乎解释了国际事务的每个怪异之处，你指出来，你就明白了。

Yu-Hsing Chen, Well versed on history of China, and follows its politics a bit（精通中国历史，对其政治有所了解）
Seems fairly likely. Though we’re really just at the initial phase of all this.
This whole thing has been dumb, there is real issues with China’s trade practices but focusing on the deficit is really the wrong thing , China can change the deficit without changing it’s trade practice and it can fix it’s trade practice without changing the deficit, it seems to give all the wrong incentives in the world to Beijing for Trump to play it like this.
We probably just end up in the worst of both worlds, the US deficit with China shrinks (pretty dramatically even.) but it’s overall deficit goes up even more and see serious economic problems. Meanwhile, China gets hurt (probably not as much) and becomes even more protectionist, so congratulations you achieved the exact opposite of your stated goal.

似乎很有可能。虽然我们真的刚刚处于这种情况的开始阶段。
整件事都很愚蠢，与中国的贸易行为存在真正的问题，但集中在逆差上真是缪不可及，中国可以改变逆差而不改变其贸易行为，而它可以修正其贸易行为而不改变逆差，这似乎给北京带来了世界上所有的错误激励，让特朗普这样玩。
我们也许会以两个世界最糟糕的结局告终，美国对中国的逆差缩小（甚至相当的戏剧性），但它的总体逆差甚至会变得更大，并面临严重的经济问题。与此同时，中国受伤（也许没有那么大），并且变得更加保护主义，所以恭喜你们都走向你们既定目标的反面。

Steven Lee (李扬灵), lived in China
Most Chinese I have known are more concerned about how this incident will impact housing price and stock price, as each day I see feeds of my WeChat moments have heated discussions about the relationship between the potential trade war and housing price. Of course, it turns out that neither party is able to persuade the other, the proposition and the opposition are basically neck to neck even after days of debates.
I bet there will be hotheaded nationalists clamor for boycotting American goods if the situation between China and US continues to deteriorate, but these people don’t constitute the mainstream of society, there is no need to take them too seriously.
Personally I would be more than happy if these nationalists truly boycott American goods, the best outcome is they throw their computer and cell phone into dustbin, then the whole internet culture would be way more rational and civil.

我认识的大多数中国人更关心的是这个事件对房价和股票价格会产生何种影响，因为我每天看微信反馈的时候，都能看到对潜在的贸易战争和房价之间的关系进行的激烈讨论。当然，事实证明任何一方都不能说服对方，即使经过几天的辩论，支持者和反对者基本上都不分上下。
我敢打赌，如果中国和美国之间的情况继续恶化，会有狂热的民族主义叫嚷着抵制美国商品，但这些人不构成社会的主流，没有必要把他们当回事。
就我个人而言，如果这些民族主义者真的抵制美国商品，我将非常高兴，最好的结果是他们把他们的电脑和手机扔进垃圾箱，那么整个互联网文化就会变得更加理性和文明。

Jingwei Yang, Chinese living in China.
The trade war has just started, it will escalate, anything could happen. To some point, nationalist zeal will become a useful tool. But that’s not the end.
You haven’t seen taliban fighting with chinese missiles yet, right

贸易战才刚刚开始，它会升级，任何事情都可能发生。在某种程度上，民族主义热情将成为一种有用的工具。但这还不是结束。
你还没见过塔利班用中国的导弹作战，对吧？

Xiao Nengshou
I believe that yes, it will certainly have an impact, but it will not affect all Chinese. Although the U.S. media are not very friendly to China, the U.S. help to China was written into history textbooks 80 years ago. Some Chinese people do not like the United States just because the United States is not very friendly to China. From a historical point of view, the two countries have no hatred. However, the U.S. government always regards China as a catalyst for U.S. nationalism and pushes all responsibility to China. This is unfair. After all, trade has benefited most from Germany and Japan, and then China, from the perspective of me as an ordinary citizen. Look, I think the Chinese government is trying its best to avoid intensifying the trade war. After all, the United States is the emperor of this world. But let us actively see the side of the trade war. The agricultural powers of Australia and Canada will increase their exports. Their farmers can increase their income. It is also a positive aspect to live better days.

我认为是的，肯定会有影响，但不会影响到所有的中国人。虽然美国媒体对中国不是很友好，但80年前美国对中国的帮助被写入了历史教科书。有些中国人不喜欢美国，只是因为美国对中国不太友好。从历史的角度看，两国之间没有仇恨。然而，美国政府一直将中国视为美国民族主义的催化剂，并将所有责任推给中国。这是不公平的。毕竟，从我作为一个普通公民的角度来看，美国的贸易收益多数来自德国和日本，之后才是中国。听着，我认为中国政府正在尽最大努力避免加剧贸易战。毕竟，美国是这个世界的皇帝。但让我们积极地从侧面看待这场贸易战。澳大利亚和加拿大等农业大国将增加其出口。他们的农民可以增加收入。更好的生活也是一个积极的方面。

Erica Wong, studied Political Science & International Relations at Tsinghua University（清华大学政治科学与国际关系研究）
The South China Morning Post ran a story on something very similar to this.
How China's consumer patriotism is hitting US and international brands
The article covers how nationalistic zeal is causing young people to buy Chinese branded goods rather than imports.
Mix in a trade war and this can only accelerate. I suspect that Apple will be hit particularly hard after the treatment Huawei has received in the USA.

南华早报发表了一篇文章，对一个与此类似的话题做了讨论。
“中国消费者的爱国主义对美国及国际品牌的打击有多大？”
这篇文章讲述了民族主义热情正在引发年轻人购买中国品牌产品而不是进口产品。
与贸易战争混合，这种情绪只会加剧。我怀疑，由于华为在美国的遭遇，苹果会受到特别的打击。

Yáng Hào, China ist mein Vaterland
US-China doesn’t have a such a blood history like China-Japan had. So I expect there will be not as much boycott as when Diaoyu island dispute was all on the news.
The US can be a bully but the Japan was and still is the nemesis of China in many Chinese mind.

美中之间没有中日之间血淋淋的历史。所以我认为不会出现当钓鱼岛问题出现在所有新闻中那样的大量抵制活动。
美国虽然横行霸道，但在很多中国人的想法里，日本依然是中国的死敌。