因为特朗普对中国货物的关税，中国民族主义者有多大可能对美国公司做出反应和抵制？上 [美国媒体]

What is the likelihood that there will be a Chinese nationalist reaction and boycott of US companies because of   Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods?

因为特朗普对中国货物的关税，中国民族主义者有多大可能对美国公司做出反应和抵制？上




Robin Daverman, World traveler
What is the likelihood that there will be a Chinese nationalist reaction and boycott of US companies because of Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods
A2A. This is pretty much a certainty. The question is not if there will be a Chinese boycott of US Companies, but how wide-spread the reaction will be.
Australian wine, Argentina beef, Russian wheat, German cars, etc., are widely perceived as better value than the corresponding American products in the Chinese market. All these consumer goods will likely face popular boycott. Tourism, entertainment, and higher education will likely be hit as well.
Keep in mind that the Chinese government usually clamps down on spontaneous act of boycott from the People, because the targeting is kinda random (vs. the very pointed targeting to the Trump support base from the Chinese government). Also, someone who’s used to German cars may not go back to buying American cars after the trade war is over, so the consumer preference may not be reversible.
Also keep in mind that the tariff does not happen until after a period of industry consultation. That’s a time for everybody to lobby for exemption, or start looking for alternative suppliers and distributors. But of course, just the threat is enough to kick our own stock exchange down… nobody wants to be the last one holding the bag
Dow plunges 724 points as trade war fears rock Wall Street
One last thing that you should realize, is that EVERYTHING that happened in the last month or so, from the departure of more moderate and educated cabinet members such as Tillerson and McMaster, to the ongoing threat of trade wars with countries spanningfrom North America, EU, to Asia, all validated the CCP’s decision, this time, to keep an experience team in the leadership position on board until further notice. Even if there is a change of leadership 5 years later, it’s not wise to give foreign countries a chance to influence it at this time.
PS And why in the world is Taobao not doing business in the US still They are like all over Europe, and with the looming trade war, American consumers would be in a mad rush for nice & cheap stuff!

谢邀。这几乎是肯定的。问题不在于中国人是否会抵制美国企业，而是反应会传播的多广泛。
澳大利亚的葡萄酒、阿根廷的牛肉、俄罗斯的小麦、德国的汽车等，普遍被认为比中国市场上相应的美国产品更有价值。美国的所有这些消费品都可能面临民众的抵制。旅游业、娱乐业和高等教育也将受到冲击。

请记住，中国政府通常会限制民众自发的抵制行动，因为那样抵制的目标可能会存在一定的随意性(与中国政府非常明确的将目标指向特朗普的票仓相比)。此外在贸易战争结束后，习惯了德国汽车的人可能不会再买美国车，因此消费者的偏好可能是不可逆的。
同时要记住，在经过一段时间的行业协商后，关税才会实施。这是一段让每个国家游说豁免，或者开始寻找替代供应商和分销商的时机。但是，当然仅仅是威胁就足以让我们的股票贬值了……没人想成为最后一个拿着袋子的人……

贸易战争令华尔街担忧，美国道琼斯工业平均指数暴跌724点。

最后一件你应该意识到的事情，就是在过去一个多月发生的的所有事情，从更为温和和受过教育的内阁成员如蒂勒森和麦克马斯特的离开，到正在持续的对从北美，欧洲，扩展到亚洲各国的贸易战争威胁，都在证实CCP的这一次决定，即让一个经验丰富的团队留在领导位置，直至另行通知。即使5年后领导层换届，现在让外国有机会对它施加影响也是不明智的做法。
PS：为什么淘宝依然没有在美国开展业务？他们在欧洲各地都深受喜爱，随着贸易战争若隐若现，美国的消费者会疯狂的抢购价廉物美的东西！

Shou'en Li, Editor-in-Chief, Reporter (2003-present)（2003至今 主编 记者）
Thanks Paul Denlinger for requesting me to answer this ^-^
I am not an expert of trade or business, actually expert of no fields at all, so I can only give an answer from my personal perspective.
My answer would be “no” to this question.
First, from the angle of the public will of the mass in China, admit or not, most Chinese have a favorable attitude towards the US, not like that to Japan, or even to South Korea, where nationalism can be easily sparked. Maybe because the US has indeed portrayed itself too successfully as the world’s savior, as the best international citizen, as a most successful nation, as a heaven for dreamers......anyway, too many Chinese are not in the mood to take the US as an “enemy” yet. Since they still treat it as a friend, then it won’t be easy to go directly against a “friend” without immediate harms.
Second, the impact of trade wars are not as imminent, obvious and strong as the ones, say, the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia in 1999 by the US-led NATO, or the collision of the US craft with a Chinese fighter above South China Sea in 2001, which had catapulted nationalism sentiments across China in a very short period of time and resulted in street protests against the US in many cities in the country. While the impact of trade wars, need time to reach the ordinary people, maybe months, and it will only affect people in a gradual way and the extent might vary to different people.
Third, even if the trade war really goes real and Chinese indeed feel the impact, I think for most of them, it will be OK, for ordinary consumers, they can buy less or turn to other alternatives, either domestic products or imports from other markets; for those in business, thinner profits would be a natural result, but they too, either accept a thinner profit and continue with their business, or turn to other partners, or even shift their business fields....In all, there is always a way out. We have an old Chinese saying here “A living man can not be suffocated by urine,” which means, “Man is the master of things.” Chinese are smart, flexible, and pragmatic to cope with all difficulties, I believe.
Fourth, I think we need to give our support to our government here, since once trade wars really start, it won’t be a human to human close battle between the peoples of the US and China, instead, it would be a series of chain actions by the two governments. As a Chinese, though I really don’t hope war of any type between the US and China, yet, I can understand there are reasons why Trump needs to wage the trade war with China. But, since I am a Chinese, once the trade war is waged, I will definitely be on the side of Chinese government and give my full support to any rational and tactful counter actions taken by it. As we can see from various reports, the Chinese government has taken actions, abstemiously but firmly. So, at current stage, let the government play its role. I think maybe many other Chinese also hold the similar opinions and expectations on the government.
Last but not least, does the Chinese government need its people to be nationalists on the trade war issue Not yet, I think. And also this is somewhere where Chinese government is smart by controlling the public opinion through various means (though the government won’t admit this, people inside or outside all have to agree with this), it can indeed lead the public opinion. Media outlets from state level to local level, from public-run ones to social media platforms are all discussing the trade war issue, but most of them, to date, I think, are within reasons, and not too much trumpeting of nationalism, for example, calling for a boycotting of the US products, or calling for the retreat of Chinese enterprises back from the US, etc.
But if the day comes when nationalism is a choice, either by the people, or by the government, then, it will be there. And no body knows who would suffer more. So I hope all parties stay calm and make negotiation, instead of war of any type, as a first choice.

感谢Paul Denlinger的邀请。
我并不是贸易或者商业领域的专家，实际上我不是任何领域的专家，所以我只能给出我个人视角的回答。
我对这个问题的回答是“不会”。

首先，从中国大众公共意愿的角度，无论是否承认，大多数中国人对美国都有一种赞同的态度，而不像对日本，甚或是韩国，对这两个国家民族主义情绪很容易引燃。也许因为美国在将自己包装为世界拯救者、最佳国际公民、最成功的国家、梦想者的天堂方面做的过于成功，无论如何，太多中国人还没有把美国当作敌人的心情。因为他们依然把它当作朋友，所以在没有直接危害的情况下，直接与“朋友”对抗不是一件轻易的事。

第二，与1999年美国领导的北约轰炸中国驻南联盟大使馆，或者2001年美国飞机与一架中国战斗机在南海上空相撞这两件事相比，贸易战争的影响并不那么迫在眉睫、明显和强烈。那两件事在很短的一段时间内就在中国激起了民族主义情绪，并在许多城市引发了反对美国的街头抗议。而贸易战争的影响需要一段时间才能触及到普通人，也许是几个月，而且它只会以渐进的方式去影响人们，对于不同的人，影响程度也各不相同。

第三，即使贸易战争真的发生了，中国人确实感受到了冲击，我想对他们中的大多数人来说也没什么大不了。对于普通消费者来说，他们可以少买或转向其他的选择，或者选择国内产品，或者从其他市场进口；对于那些从事商业活动的人来说，利润变少是自然的结果，但他们也一样，或者接受更微薄的利润，继续经营，或者转向其他合作伙伴，甚至转变他们的业务领域。总而言之，总有一条出路。我们在这里有句古话“活人不能被尿憋死，”它的意思是，“人是事物的主人。”中国人很聪明、柔韧、而且务实，我相信这可以让他们克服所有的困难。

第四，我认为我们需要在这件事上支持我们的政府，因为一旦贸易战争真正发生，它将不是一场发生在美国和中国人民之间的面对面的战争，而是发生在两个政府之间的一系列链式反应。作为一个中国人，虽然我不希望美国和中国之间发生任何形式的战争，我也可以理解特朗普为何需要向中国发起贸易战争，这也是有原因的。但是因为我是个中国人，一旦贸易战争打响，我肯定会站在中国政府一方，全力支持它发起的任何理性和机智的行动。就像我们可以从很多报告里看到的那样，中国政府已经采取行动，有节制但是很坚定。所以，在当前阶段，让政府发挥自己的作用。我认为也许有很多其他中国人也对政府抱有同样的观点和期待。

最后但同样重要的，中国政府需要它的人民在贸易战争问题上变成民族主义者吗？我觉得还不会。这也是中国政府很聪明的地方通过各种手段来控制公众舆论(尽管政府不会承认这一点，但无论内部还是外部的人都同意这一点)，它确实可以引导公众舆论。媒体从国家层面到地方层面，从民营的到社交媒体平台都在讨论贸易战争的问题，但是我认为到目前为止，他们中的大多数都是理性的，并没有太多的鼓吹民族主义，诸如呼吁抵制美国产品，或者要求中国企业从美国撤出等等。

但是，如果这一天到来，当民族主义成为一个选项，要么是人民，要么是政府，那么它就会出现在那里。没有人知道谁会遭受更多的痛苦。因此，我希望各方保持冷静，以谈判而不是任何形式的战争作为第一选项。

Jefferson Yin, Former military officer of China（中国前军官）
I think most people think too much and fail to realize the details.
The industry between China and USA highly depends on each other rather than compete against each other.
The data has been everywhere that the overall trade between USA and China is that
USA mainly input daily goods highly related to ordinary people’s lives from China.
Meanwhile, China mainly input agricultural production and high–tech goods from USA.
Therefore I really don't know how trade war is going on.
If USA really wants to make real damages to China. The USA would sacrifice the interests of the ordinary people who are the overwhelmingly biggest vote box to face much higher daily cost. Trump as one of richest man in USA , of course, can ignore the higher cost, however, how about the mass I know some Americans below the average can support Trump out of nationalism. But when they really face the much higher cost for one month even one year, they really would like to play this long race
As for China, maybe Trump believe the out of work would go to the street to make troubles like what USA is facing. However, the reality of China is that the workers have two different identities—— when they are in factory, they are workers, when they are in hometown, they are farmers. Even in the global financial crisis of 2008, there weren't many out of work people running into the street. Do you think China won't deal with one–side sanction from USA
The trade structure between USA and China has determined it wouldn't last for long. Comparing to the trade war between USA and. China, I prefer to see the reaction from American allies.
You think the sanction of USA only works in the trade between USA and China
Just look at recent sanction from USA on steel.
USA even can't reach top 10 in steel trade of China. But how about South Korea Around 15% steel trade to USA.

我认为大多数人想得太多，没有看清楚细节。
中美之间的产业是高度相互依赖，而不是相互竞争。
美国和中国之间的贸易总体是这样的：
美国主要从中国进口与普通民众生活高度相关的日常用品。
同时，中国主要从美国进口农产品和高科技产品。
因此，我真的不知道贸易战是怎么发生的。

如果美国真的想对中国造成真正的损害，美国将牺牲普通民众的利益，而他们是特朗普最大的票仓，他们要面对更高的日常开销。特朗普是美国最富有的人之一，他当然可以无视更高的生活成本，但是大众该怎么办呢？我知道有些低于平均水平的美国人会出于民族主义而去支持特朗普。但是当他们真的面临更高的生活成本，持续一个月甚至一年，他们真的想要参加这场长期战争吗？
也许特朗普认为，对于中国，失业者会走上街头制造麻烦，就像美国面临的问题一样。然而，中国的现实是，工人有两个不同的身份——当他们在工厂时，他们是工人，当他们在家乡时，他们是农民。即使在2008年的全球金融危机中，中国也没有多少人失业者走上街头。你认为中国会对美国单方面制裁无动于衷吗

美国和中国之间的贸易结构决定了它不会持续很长时间。相比美国和中国之间的贸易战争，我更想看到美国盟友的反应。
你认为美国的制裁只适用于美国和中国之间的贸易吗
看看最近美国对钢铁的制裁。
在中国的钢铁贸易中，美国甚至达不到前10。但韩国呢？它有大约15%的钢铁卖给美国。