雅虎财经：这就是特朗普与中国贸易战背后的策略 [美国媒体]

If you look at the trade numbers with China, you can discern what President Trump might be thinking as he drags the United States into an escalating trade war.

如果你看一下与中国的贸易数据，你就能看出特朗普总统在把美国拖入一场不断升级的贸易战时可能会有什么想法。

Trump has upped the ante yet again, beginning the process to slap tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, in addition to $34 billion already subject to new tariffs and $16 billion that’s about to be. Since there have been many volleys in this competition so far, let’s first review the Trump trade war scorecard. Here are the tariffs Trump has actually imposed (in green), along with those he seems likely to impose (in yellow) and others he has merely suggested (in orange):

特朗普再次加大了赌注，开始对价值2000亿美元的中国进口商品征收关税，此外还有340亿美元的新关税和160亿美元即将征收的关税。因为到目前为止， 由于到目前为止在这场比赛中有多次“抽射 ”，让我们首先回顾一下特朗普的贸易战记分卡，以下是特朗普实际征收的关税(绿色)，以及他似乎可能征收的关税(黄色)和他仅建议的其它关税(橙色)：



Sources: Office of the US Trade Representative, Peterson Institute for International Economics

资料来源：美国贸易代表办公室，彼得森国际经济研究所

The Trump tariffs on solar panels, washing machines, steel and aluminum apply to imports from many countries, including China. But those apply to just $57 billion of goods.

特朗普对太阳能电池板、洗衣机、钢铁和铝征收的关税适用于包括中国在内的许多国家的进口产品，但这些仅适用于价值570亿美元的商品。

Trump is targeting China in particular much more aggressively. If we add up the tariffs already imposed with those in the process of being imposed, Trump could hit $250 billion worth of Chinese imports with new tariffs by the fall.

特朗普的目标特别针对中国，力度要大得多，如果我们将已经征收的关税与正在征收的关税相加，到今年秋季，特朗普可能会对价值2500亿美元的中国进口商品征收新的关税。

That number matters—to Trump, at least. He has long complained about the U.S. trade deficit with China, which was $336 billion in 2017. Let’s look at a breakdown of the 2017 numbers:

这个数字很重要——至少对特朗普来说是这样，长期以来，他一直抱怨美国对中国的贸易逆差，2017年美国对华贸易逆差为3360亿美元。让我们看一看2017年的数据：

U.S. imports of Chinese goods and services: $524 billion
US exports of goods and services to China: $188 billion
Overall trade deficit with China: $336 billion

美国进口中国商品和服务：5240亿美元
美国对中国商品和服务出口：1880亿美元
对华贸易逆差：3360亿美元

At the beginning of his trade war, Trump seemed to think China wouldn’t dare impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports if he did the same to Chinese imports, even though most trade experts predicted that would happen. They were right and Trump was wrong. China has imposed its own tariffs on U.S. imports almost dollar-for-dollar, to match those Trump has imposed. There’s every reason it will continue to do so.

在贸易战开始时，特朗普似乎认为，如果他对中国进口商品采取同样的措施，中国就不敢对美国进口商品征收报复性关税，尽管多数贸易专家预计这会发生——他们是对的，特朗普是错的。
中国对美国进口商品征收了关税，几乎是一美元对一美元，与特朗普所征收的关税相差无几。
它将继续这样做是完全有理由的。

But China only imports $188 billion worth of U.S. goods and services per year. Ah ha! Once both countries have imposed tariffs on $188 billion worth of imports from the other, then China starts to run short of ammunition, according to the Trump playbook. At that point, Trump can keep imposing tariffs on Chinese imports, all the way up to $524 billion worth, while China will run out of imports to tax at a paltry $188 billion.

中国每年只进口价值1880亿美元的美国商品和服务，嗯哼！根据特朗普的剧本，一旦两国对对方进口的价值1880亿美元的商品征收关税，中国就会开始弹药短缺，届时，特朗普可以继续对从中国进口的商品征收关税，最高可达5240亿美元，而中国的进口关税将仅为区区1880亿美元。

How China can retaliate

中国如何报复

Maybe that explains why Trump has mentioned adding yet another $200 billion in Chinese imports to his tariff list, if his new tax on the first $250 billion worth of Chinese imports doesn’t get the job done. That would push the total of newly tariffed Chinese imports to $450 billion, which is getting close to all of them.

也许这就解释了为什么特朗普提到如果他对价值2500亿美元的中国进口品征收的新税不能达到预期效果的话，他还会在他的关税清单上再增加2000亿美元的中国进口商品，这将使新征收关税的中国进口总额达到4500亿美元，接近全部进口额。
——特朗普逻辑的问题在于他有缺陷的杠杆概念。

The problem with Trump’s logic is his flawed concept of leverage. Trump seems to think that once China hits all $188 billion worth of U.S. imports with new tariffs, it will do nothing as Trump keeps ratcheting up the pain. Then, they’ll buckle. But there’s plenty that China could do if the trade war really gets to this foolish level of mutually assured destruction.
China could raise the tariff on U.S. imports, and it could go as high as it wants. A 20% tariff could go to 40%, 80%, or 400%. So while there might not be additional imports to tax, the tax could go higher and higher on the imports that exist (until they don’t exist anymore).


特朗普似乎认为，一旦中国以新的关税冲击了所有价值1880亿美元的美国进口商品，它将毫无作为，因为特朗普一直在加大筹码，接下来，他们就会投降——但如果贸易战真的达到这种愚蠢的、相互保证毁灭的水平，中国可以做很多事。
中国可以提高对美国进口商品的关税，而且可以随心所欲地提高关税，20%的关税可以达到40%、80%，甚至400%，因此，虽然可能没有额外的进口税收项，现有的进口商品的关税可能会越来越高（直到它们不再存在）。

China could also begin to harass the hundreds of U.S. companies already doing business in China, to the extent they are effectively shut down in the world second-largest economy. China has become a key market for many American businesses, and losing this business would be a big hit to corporate profits.

中国也可能开始骚扰已经在华开展业务的数百家美国公司，以至于它们在这个世界第二大经济体实际上被关闭了。
中国已成为许多美国公司的关键市场，而失去这一市场将对企业利润造成重大打击。

China could become more aggressive militarily in the South China Sea and other areas that are important to trade. It could torpedo Trump’s effort to negotiate the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. It could pull out of business deals in the United States, which total $140 billion. It could sell off some of the $1.2 trillion in U.S. government debt it owns, which would probably send the value of the dollar lower and interest rates higher. It could exploit Trump’s alienation of traditional U.S. allies in Europe and elsewhere by offering sweetheart deals not available to U.S. firms.

中国可能会在南中国海和其他对贸易很重要的地区变得更具军事侵略性，这可能会破坏特朗普就朝鲜半岛无核化进行谈判的努力，它可能会退出在美国的商业交易，其总额达1400亿美元，它可能会抛售它所持有的1.2万亿美元美国国债中的一部分，这可能会导致美元贬值和利率上升，它可以利用特朗普对美国在欧洲和其他地方的传统盟友的疏远，给它们美国公司无法获得的优惠贸易条件。

Sure, this would hurt China in many ways. But Trump’s trade crusade is becoming a war of attrition in which neither side is a winner and the only way to win is to lose less. So both sides are going to get hurt.

当然，这会在很多方面损害中国，但是，特朗普的贸易改革正在演变成一场消耗战，双方都不是赢家，获胜的唯一途径就是减少损失，所以双方都会受到伤害。

If Trump ramps all the way up to a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, it would modestly raise prices on many products American consumers buy, and probably shift U.S. imports away from China toward other countries that can supply similar stuff. So the U.S. trade deficit with China might improve, as Trump desires, but our trade deficits with other countries would worsen by a like amount, on net.

如果特朗普对所有中国进口产品全面提高10% 的关税，就会在一定程度上抬高美国消费者购买的许多产品的价格，并可能将美国进口商品渠道从中国转移到其他能够供应类似商品的国家，因此，正如特朗普所希望的那样，美国对中国的贸易逆差可能会有所改善——但我们与其他国家的贸易逆差在净值上可能会进一步恶化。

Here in the U.S., the pain would be concentrated among American farmers and others who export to China, who already face new barriers to selling there. Those barriers would get much higher. The stock market would probably wobble and perhaps decline, especially if the trade war actually begins to impede corporate profits. If Trump taxed all Chinese imports, it would amount to an added tax on American consumers of about $60 billion. That’s not huge in a $20 trillion economy, but plenty of Americans would still feel it.

在美国，痛苦将集中在美国农民和其他出口商品到中国的人身上，他们在中国的销售已经面临壁垒，而现在这些壁垒会变得更高。
股市可能会震荡甚至下跌，尤其是一旦贸易战真的开始阻碍企业创造利润的话。如果特朗普对所有从中国进口的商品征税，将相当于对美国消费者征收约600亿美元的附加税，在一个20万亿美元的经济体中，这并不算大，但很多美国人仍会感受到。

Few economists think more U.S. production would materialize as Chinese imports got more expensive. In fact, some companies that produce stuff here for export to China and other markets would move that production out of the United States, as BMW recently said it plans to do. It might even compel more companies to set up shop in China, where they’d face no tariffs selling into the Chinese market. That’s obviously the opposite of Trump’s goal, which is why just about nobody who has studied trade agrees with him that they are “easy to win.”  They’re easy to lose, though.

很少有经济学家认为，随着中国进口商品变得越来越昂贵，就能实现美国产品越来越多的目标，事实上，一些在美国生产出口到中国和其他市场的公司将会把生产转移到美国以外，就像宝马公司最近所说的那样，这甚至可能迫使更多的公司在中国开设商店，在那里他们不会面临向中国市场销售的关税——这显然与特朗普的目标正好相反，这就是为什么那些几乎没有研究过贸易的人会同意他的观点——即他们" 很容易获胜 " ，而事实上，他们也很容易输。

Anonymous4 days ago
Was it dangerous to ship our manufacturing overseas?

把我们的制造业转移到海外危险吗？

Dakota4 days ago
My home state is expected to lose 6 billion in farm sales this year alone

我的家乡预计仅今年一年就会损失60亿美元的农业销售额。

CROOKED CLOWN DOTARD4 days ago
And ultimately who's paying for these increase of taxes on Chinese goods? Does that means that almost everything in Walmart, Amazon and other retailers will be more expensive?

最终谁来为这些增加的中国商品关税买单？ 这是不是意味着沃尔玛、亚马逊和其他零售商几乎所有产品都会更贵？

Mancave Dweller4 days ago
It's simple. We pay higher prices, the government collects the tariffs, and a year from now magically discovers enough money for the wall

很简单。 我们会支付更高的价格，政府收取关税，一年后魔法般地发现有了足够的钱去修墙（美墨边境墙）。

Michael
Michael4 days ago
The effects should start showing on financial reports soon as a lot of companies will have to pay more for supplies until US production can ramp up and there will be more to come so I expect a market correction. I dont think companies can hide from it even if they aren't effected by oversees the amount of money in peoples pockets will start getting tighter for a while.

这种影响应该很快就会在财务报告上显现出来，因为许多公司将不得不为供应链支付更高的价格，直到美国产量增加，未来还会有更多影响，所以我预计市场会出现回调，我认为，即使公司不受监管的影响，它们也无法逃避，人们口袋里的钱会在一段时间内变得越来越紧张。

Jacques
Jacques4 days ago
To date, Trump hasn't shared any FACTS, REPORTS or analysis that"proves" his actions will yield positive results and not disaster.

到目前为止，特朗普还没有分享任何“证明”他的行动会产生积极结果而不是灾难的事实、报告或分析。

Gary
Gary4 days ago
The only winners in a tariff war are those who lose the least.

关税战中唯一的赢家是那些损失最少的一方。

Madame X2 days ago
i think part of the problem is that it's a sudden surprise with no transition. Shock sets in and reaction/retaliation.

我认为部分问题在于，这是一个突然的意外，没有过渡。突然的冲击，反应/报复。

GERARD
GERARD2 days ago
The authors points are weak at best. He states that China could charge higher tarriffs once we hit the $180 billion. The YSA could do the same. He also says that China could increase its military presence in the South China Sea. Woo scary! We could also. Are navy makes their's look like our coast guard. He says China could dump are bonds. As the largest holde of USA. Bonds they would be shooting themselves in the foot. They don't want to take 59% on the dollar for thier bond portfolio.. look, bottom line is this, which the author fails to mention. China has a large trade surplus. They have way more to loose than we do.

作者的观点也很薄弱。他说，一旦我们征收关税的商品总额达到1800亿美元，中国就会抬高关税，美国也可以这样做。他还说，中国可以增加在南中国海的军事存在，真吓人哈！我们也可以，海军让他们看起来就像我们的海岸警卫队。他说中国可能会抛售债券，作为美国国债最大的股东，他们只会搬起石头砸自己的脚，他们不敢拿占59%的美元债券的债券投资组合开玩笑，这是底线，作者没有提到。中国有巨大的贸易顺差，要输的话他们会比我们输的更惨。

ErinJ2 days ago
Trump is a fool. The best paid workers in China get US $3.20 per hour. The typical worker in China gets US $0.50 per hour. FIFTY F*CKING CENTS PER HOUR! Do you think that Apple, etc, can get US workers to work for the same low wages? Trump thinks so. If he gets too tough on China trade, and China kicks us out, and sends out factories packing, and they come back here, will YOU work for fifty cents per hour? Hahahahaha! I didn't think so! If you demand more pay, that will greatly increase the cost of producing iPapds, iPhones, etc, here...which will greatly increase their selling price...making them too expensive for even the people who build them to buy. That will sink our economy.

特朗普就是个蠢货。在中国，工资最高的工人每小时工资为3.20美元，在中国，一般工人的工资是每小时0.50美元，艹，是每小时五十美分啊！你认为苹果等公司能让美国工人以同样低的工资工作吗？特朗普是这么想的。
如果他对中国贸易太强硬，中国会把我们赶出去，把工厂外包，然后他们一样回到这里，你会以每小时50美分的工资工作吗？哈哈哈哈！我不这么认为！如果你要求更多的报酬，就会大大增加生产 iPad、iPhone等产品的成本…这将大大提高它们的售价…使它们变得过于昂贵，甚至连制造它们的人都买不起，这将使我们的经济陷入困境。

Victor3 days ago
If there is no trade war, even if US is a gold mountain, such great deficit will level that gold mountain bit by bit through time, you can guess what US will be by then. Rebuilding the manufacture back to US is the aim of trade war. Turning back to right path from wrough path is not easy. Winning without any casualty in a war is impossible. Paying more for goods is batter than jobless.

如果不打贸易战，即使美国是一座金山，如此巨大的赤字也会使这座金山一点一点地耗光，你可以猜测到那时美国将会是什么样子，贸易战的目的是让制造业重回美国，从弯路回到正确的道路并不容易，在战争中没有任何伤亡是不可能赢的，多花了点钱买东西总比失业要好得多。